Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The episode examines how the recent escalation of the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict is pushing oil above $100 per barrel, creating inflationary pressure and market volatility across Asia and the U.S. It highlights the mixed impact on Singapore‑listed agricultural stocks, where upstream palm‑oil growers may benefit while integrated processors could see margin squeezes. Defense‑oriented tech firms like Palantir are gaining on expectations of higher government spending, whereas broader equities are under pressure from rising energy costs. The host also touches on upcoming earnings and economic data that could shape investor sentiment this week.
South Korea’s Leading Economic Index rose 0.9 % in January to 114.8, driven by a stock‑price rally and stronger private construction orders. The Coincident Economic Index slipped 0.1 % to 109.4, indicating current activity is barely expanding. Over the past six months...
South Korean President Lee Jae‑Myung announced the first fuel‑price cap in three decades as Brent crude breached $100 a barrel amid the Middle East conflict. Taiwan’s government simultaneously introduced a weekly cap limiting gasoline price hikes to roughly 5%, far...
Oil futures surged past $113 a barrel and Brent topped $114 as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran escalated, pushing the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. The sharp rally in crude sent gasoline price forecasts above $4 per gallon, while Dow...
The United Kingdom’s gas storage has plunged to roughly two days of supply, with reserves falling from 18,000 GWh last year to about 6,700 GWh today. A similar volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) sits in storage, but the overall buffer is...
The article warns that rising geopolitical risk, highlighted by President Trump’s actions and a surge in crude oil prices, is driving equities lower. Higher oil prices are pushing the VIX up and causing a bear‑steepening of the yield curve, signaling...
Vietnam’s benchmark VN‑Index closed 115 points lower on March 9, marking the steepest one‑day decline in its history. The plunge, driven by margin calls and panic selling, saw all 30 VN‑30 constituents fall, with 24 hitting floor prices. Foreign investors exited...
In 2026 Southeast Asian founders confront a macro‑antifragility dilemma, balancing rapid scaling, unit‑economic profitability, and supply‑chain stability amid rising techno‑nationalism. High‑interest‑rate environments in the West have tightened investor expectations, while ASEAN’s robust GDP growth is tempered by sovereign AI regulations...
Oil markets spiked dramatically as Brent crude briefly touched $119.50 per barrel, driven by heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑related conflict in the Middle East. Prices later eased to $107.20 for Brent and $103.18 for WTI after reports that G7...
The only question that matters in the next few weeks is whether Beijing concludes that the Iran escalation cutting off 40% of Chinese oil imports was deliberate and therefore demands a strategic response, or concludes that it was reckless and...
Emerging‑market equities suffered a sharp sell‑off on March 9, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index sliding 3.4% and edging toward a technical correction defined by a 10% pullback from recent highs. Two‑thirds of the index’s constituents posted losses, pushing the benchmark...
We discussed on the impact of the crisis on Asia and it is a big negative shock for the region as we are very oil and gas dependent & we are importers of that from the Middle East. Price higher =...
American companies continue to wrestle with critical mineral shortages even after China temporarily lifted its export ban on gallium, germanium and antimony. China still controls the bulk of heavy rare earths and other essential raw materials, creating bottlenecks for U.S....
Iran’s president pledged to cease attacks unless provoked, after the IRGC launched an Arash‑2 drone strike on Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan airport that injured civilians. Azerbaijan responded by sealing its land border with Iran and hinted it could extend restrictions to Iranian...
If you want to understand global oil trade think of this as the world's circulatory system. Pinching the Strait of Hormuz is like closing a major artery. It will cause damage the longer it is closed and if not careful, you either...
Australian sheepmeat exports to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) represent about $4.3 billion, or 23 % of total export value. Tasmania is the most exposed state, sending roughly 70 % of its sheepmeat to the region, while Victoria and Western Australia...
The Iran conflict has escalated from direct military exchanges to sustained attacks on critical infrastructure, including oil storage facilities, airports and desalination plants across Iran and neighboring Gulf states. These strikes, combined with ongoing constraints on commercial traffic through the...
Brent is $106 and markets are in full panic mode. They were slow to price the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but at this point the Strait isn't going to get any more closed. If anything, it'll...
Polymarket’s recession contract defines a U.S. recession as an NBER declaration for any quarter in 2025 or 2026, issued before the BEA releases its Q4 2026 advance estimate. Because the NBER typically confirms recessions with a lag, the contract’s definition lowers...
Compared to the last maximum disruption during the 1956-1957 Suez Crisis (as a percentage of total liquids demand), this represents the largest oil supply loss in history, by a factor of two. Worse, unlike in past crises, there's zero spare capacity...
1/6 China's deflationary environment continues to improve, with high-than-expected numbers in February. CPI inflation was 1.3% year on year and 1.0% month on month. Month-on-month inflation has been positive since December and mostly positive since July. https://t.co/gpaBJ53yli
A new ECB research bulletin exploits regional data from 168 NUTS‑2 areas across 11 euro‑area countries (1999‑2023) to re‑estimate the Phillips curve. Controlling for region and time fixed effects yields a slope of –0.19, far steeper than the –0.01 found...
.@ZichenWanghere: “China is not willing to play the same role for Iran that the United States has long assumed for its own partners. But that does not mean that China is feckless…Too many observers still measure every rising power against...
“Encouragingly, China now seems very alert to the threat of deflation…Li Qiang said the government will steer the cost of living ‘back into positive territory.’ That’s tougher language than last year…a welcome recognition that Beijing has a problem.” https://t.co/V270GGGAJB
The ongoing Iran war is intensifying the Bank of Japan’s stagflation dilemma, forcing a choice between raising rates or maintaining ultra‑low policy for longer. Core inflation excluding food and energy fell further below the BOJ’s 2% target in January, while...
Last month I wrote a column about whether Trump could take credit for low oil prices. Trump loves to talk about how much he wants/pushes for low prices, but I argued his aggressive foreign policy was a massive bullish driver of...
Puzzling. In risk-off market yields go down, but they're flat to up, globally (so not "sell-America"). Central banks seen as less likely to ease. True, until you get non-linearities and recessions (e.g. summer of 2008, oil up sharply and ECB...
Oil prices have surged past the $100 per barrel mark, with West Texas Intermediate climbing above $108 and Brent exceeding $107, reflecting a 16‑18% rise since the start of the year. The jump is driven by escalating war risks in...
China Consumer Inflation Beats Expectations on Holiday Boost—The consumer-price index rose 1.3% from a year earlier in February https://t.co/U4ziLySrnu https://t.co/U4ziLySrnu
Middle East tensions spike oil past $100 and shake inflation forecasts. This week's CPI and PCE data could pack extra punch as rate cut hopes fade. 🟢 Open https://t.co/dcFgI6Pdro
Brent prompt futures opened above $108 per barrel on NYMEX, marking a notable price surge. The rally is driven by OPEC+ output cuts, lingering Middle East tensions, and a weakening dollar that favors commodities. Analysts warn the $108 level could...
*BRENT CRUDE OIL EXTENDS SURGE TO 25% ON MIDEAST WAR DISRUPTION In addition to rallying 25% today (Sunday night), May Brent Crude oil futures are up 56% since last Wednesday's low (March 4th). https://t.co/Afycm5leiS
Oil spiking to $107 while gold falls. The dollar is strengthening as global markets panic. Both moves happening at once. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/Og6roiaoNd
People aren’t freaking out enough The situation is not under control Price of oil up 40 bucks in a week
Beyond market dynamics. Financial stress and the way forward in a war stricken economy. https://t.co/LIopIEO6s7 https://t.co/BjcTLG016G
Taiwan's government will set a weekly cap on oil price increases to help contain domestic inflation, local media reports 🇹🇼🛢️ Fuel prices to be adjusted overall by ~5% this week The likelihood of freezing electricity tariffs in April is high https://t.co/tTWfUV2wiI https://t.co/LgRs7ClOH7
A sophisticated man like Bessent “unsanctioning” Russian oil as Russia is… 1. Openly supporting Iran 2. Reportedly helping Iran target US assets 3. Still fighting Ukraine …strongly suggests the Trump Admin knows these oil disruptions are going to be longer than expected.
Yeeps: @Bob_McNally of @RapidanEnergy "Gulf War III has disrupted ~20% of global oil supply for nine days and counting – more than double the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, which disrupted just under 10%."
Negative supply shock will lead to price increases & the only way to correct that if supply doesn’t rise is, well, demand destruction. We are headed towards demand destruction if the conflict doesn’t end by Day 14. Today is Day 10....
On Liberation Day, we created a Long/Short basket (dollar neutral) meant to capitalize on any fears of stagflation due to Tariffs. That wasn’t our expectation, however. We wrote “The likely result…the administration declares victory, and most tariffs eventually come down...
Voters are already anxious about the economic impact of AI, and the effects will surely grow in the coming months and years. Yasmin Khorram and Cheyenne Haslett explain what's happening, with some data from our Canaries in the Coal Mine...
$105/bbl A few months ago many said this would never happen. Never bet against inflationary assets in an inflationary era. Deglobalization is structural no cyclical. Watch food prices next. In a world of extreme inequality, with a Fed that needs lower rates to keep...
Liberation Day: Investors stunned, didn’t think he’d do it after Trump 1.0, tariffs universally hated among investors Strait of Hormuz situation: Investors more afraid of a TACO, Wall Street opinions about the Iran operation not as universally negative as Liberation Day
Isn't it likely that countries in fiscal distress find it hard to borrow, have to pay high default premia, and run down their reserves like everything else?
The war’s not stopping because of some pain at the American pump. The implications for global fertilizer markets (ammonia, sulphur) are probably going to be as big of a deal as the energy disruptions in several months. Asian economies are in...
Trump on oil prices above $100 a barrel: “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a small price to pay.” https://t.co/jdsCvB0BtP
Asia supply of oil, gas & fertiliser is rather concentrated. We are seeing a massive supply shock to the most important input of modern life: food and transport.
“In the whole written history of the strait, it has never been closed, ever,” said JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva,” of the Strait of Hormuz. “To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.” https://t.co/x0YxXLfMu6
The President is aware and addressing it. How heavy will be the expectation for an offramp on Iran so that he can stabilize the markets?
Join us today in an X Space for X Subscribers: 🚨Hormuz Chaos: Brent Blasts Past $110 — What's Next for Oil?🚨 Today, Sunday, March 8, 9:00 PM US EST, 8:00 PM US CST No link now. Will open the Space on time.
