Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
EVERY QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING HAS FAILED: Kevin Warsh's Balance Sheet Fantasy, the $9T Debt Wall & Why the Fed's Inevitable Pivot...
Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell, testified before Congress urging a reduction of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. He warned of a $9 trillion debt wall and $2 trillion structural deficits, but offered no timeline for Quantitative Tightening (QT). The article argues that every QT attempt in the past 18 years sparked market dislocation and forced a return to Quantitative Easing (QE). Consequently, the Fed is likely to abandon QT, resume aggressive money printing, and trigger a surge in gold and silver prices.
India Holds $600bn, Should Sell Dollars, Not Seek Swap
India doesn't need a swap line. It has 600bn$ nearly, to sell, if it wants and sadly it doesn't want to. Cad is 50bn to 75bn a year. There is no exit tax. 20% above 10L a year is only...
George Answers Your Questions: Japan, Australia and a New Regional Order
Japan’s lack of domestic critical industrial minerals is driving a strategic pivot toward Australia’s abundant resource base. The two nations are deepening security and economic ties, positioning Australia as a primary supplier of rare earths, lithium, and other essential inputs...
Investors Who Think It’s Time to Move on From the Iran War Should Look at These Numbers
Wall Street is betting that the Iran‑U.S. conflict may be winding down, propelling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh highs while the Dow lags 1.9% behind its peak. Despite a 45% surge in Brent and a 41% rise in WTI...
The Oil Futures Market Is Lying to Us
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced the removal of roughly 500 million barrels from global oil inventories, a pace that could top a billion barrels by June. While Brent futures have rebounded above $100, long‑dated contracts are rising...
So You Want to Negotiate with Iran ...
President Donald Trump has publicly claimed he faces no pressure and unlimited time to deal with Iran, even as his administration scrambles to define a coherent negotiation strategy. Analysts warn that the U.S. must decide whether a deal that leaves...
Nigeria–South Africa Partnership Critical to Africa’s Integration Agenda
Stakeholders at the second Economic Diplomacy Roundtable, co‑hosted by the South African High Commission and MTN, highlighted the strategic need to deepen Nigeria‑South Africa ties as a catalyst for continental integration. MTN showcased its massive footprint—307 million subscribers and over 175,000 km...
Iran War: Waiting Is the Hardest Part, Back to Pakistan, USraeli Attack Incoming?
U.S. special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff flew to Pakistan for a second round of talks with Iran’s foreign minister, amid growing signs of a possible military escalation in the region. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted ongoing discussions on...
Top Links 1083 China Investing in Batteries, India in Dockyards. Big Cuts in Big Tech & "Talking with Sartre".
China’s foreign‑direct investment (FDI) surged this year, driven primarily by a wave of battery‑related projects that signal a strategic push into clean‑energy manufacturing. India, meanwhile, redirected capital toward its dockyard sector, earmarking billions to modernize ports and boost maritime logistics....
Sanctions Block Russian LNG, Not Crude, Through Red Sea
Explain this: The green arrows in the Red Sea show tankers carrying Russian crude oil. The second image shows the same area with no arrows at all — indicating zero LNG carriers passing through. The third image shows...
How Japan’s Bond Market Affects Your Portfolio And Global Markets
Japan’s government bond market, long the world’s low‑rate anchor, is moving toward normalization as the Bank of Japan lifts yields after years of negative rates. Higher JGB yields will reduce Japanese investors’ appetite for foreign assets, especially U.S. Treasuries, and...
U.S. Envoys Witkoff, Kushner Fly to Pakistan for Iran Talks Amid Hormuz Tension
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading to Islamabad for a fresh round of mediated talks with Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. The White House hopes the indirect negotiations will revive a stalled cease‑fire and ease the Strait of Hormuz...
European Stocks Stall After Four Weeks of Gains, Signaling Shift in Momentum
European equity markets confirmed a pause on April 24, 2026, ending a four‑week rally. The halt, reported by europesays.com, suggests a shift in momentum across major Eurozone exchanges and raises questions about future investor confidence.
Rupee Slips to 93 per Dollar as RBI Steps up FX Interventions Amid Modest Reserve Gains
The Indian rupee weakened to a 92.2‑93.5 band against the dollar after breaching 95 earlier this week, even as the Reserve Bank of India reported a modest rise in foreign‑exchange reserves. RBI officials intensified spot‑market dollar sales and tightened liquidity...
Iran-Israel Conflict Pushes Brent Above $100, Stoking Global Inflation Fears
The Iran-Israel war has lifted Brent crude to $105‑$106 a barrel, a 44%‑55% jump since the conflict began, prompting economists to warn of heightened inflation and a possible drag on global growth through 2026. The shock stems from a near‑closure...
Crude Oil Slides 1.2% as Iran Foreign Minister Heads to Pakistan, Raising De‑escalation Hopes
Crude prices dropped sharply on Friday after reports that Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Araqchi, flew to Islamabad for talks that could extend the cease‑fire with the United States. Brent fell about 1.2% to $104 a barrel and WTI slipped $1.20...
Russia’s Economic, Civil And Political Challenges During The Ukraine War
Russian officials warned that the war‑driven economy is sliding toward recession, with the World Bank forecasting just 1% GDP growth in 2026. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina highlighted soaring production costs, persistent inflation, and severe labor shortages that now affect...
The China 5: Iran Shock, Energy Resilience, and Russia’s Dependence
Russia’s war economy is under pressure, forcing the Kremlin to sell 21.8 tons of gold in Q1 at steep discounts, largely to buyers linked to China. Meanwhile, China’s energy sector shows resilience, with renewables accounting for 70% of new power capacity...
Dad Influencers Can Boost Growth, Offset Child Penalty
Macro: Low female employment & rejected equal parental leave drag growth. Key: dad influencers shift norms. Risk: policy inertia preserves child penalty. Trade: overweight care stocks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China’s Next Market Winners: Reading the Signals From the 15th Five-Year Plan
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026‑2030) shifts focus from research to the large‑scale deployment of advanced technologies. It earmarks AI, semiconductors, robotics, 6G, green hydrogen and bio‑manufacturing as priority sectors, coupling subsidies with strict performance targets. The policy reinforces self‑reliance, offering...
US Envoys Travel to Pakistan for Peace Talks; Iran Says Direct Negotiations Not Planned
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Islamabad to convey Tehran’s position on restarting US‑Iran peace talks, while the United States dispatched special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan. Iran’s foreign ministry stressed there will be no direct...
Banks Brace for Potential Tax Raid if Starmer Is Ousted
UK banks are bracing for a possible tax hike if Keir Starmer is replaced by a more left‑leaning Labour leader. The Treasury may revive a bank surcharge, targeting a 5% rate that could raise about $1.9 billion annually. Last year the...
Turkey May Consider Role in Hormuz Demining After Iran-US Deal, Minister Says
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey would consider joining a multinational de‑mining effort in the Strait of Hormuz if a peace agreement between Iran and the United States is reached. He described the operation as a humanitarian duty and...
Germany's Q2 Growth Slips Toward Contraction, DB Cuts Forecast
Good Morning from Germany, where the economy may slip back into contraction in Q2. The latest leading indicators point that way. Deutsche Bank now expects GDP to fall by 0.2% in Q2 and has cut its full-year growth forecast in...
Global Liquidity And ‘Treasury QE’: Why the Incoming Warsh Fed Is No Longer in Full Control
The Federal Reserve’s traditional role as the chief driver of U.S. growth is waning as the Treasury reclaims liquidity management. Starting in 2025, a covert revision of the 1951 Fed‑Treasury Accord allows the Treasury to conduct its own quantitative easing...
India Can Be a Non-AI Hedge as Global Capital Seeks Diversification Says Mirae Asset's Swarup Mohanty
Mirae Asset’s CEO Swarup Mohanty says India can serve as a “non‑AI hedge” for global portfolios once AI‑centric capital peaks. He notes that Indian IT firms, traditionally cash‑flow engines, are under pressure as investors chase pure‑play AI stocks, but their...
No Clarity on US-Iran Talks as Islamabad Stays Under Lockdown
Pakistan’s capital remains under a tight security lockdown as it prepares to host a second round of US‑Iran peace talks, though no direct negotiations have been confirmed. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived to meet senior Pakistani officials, while the...
Duty Drawback Rates for Gold & Silver Jewellery Hiked to Support Exporters
India’s Finance Ministry announced a quarterly hike in duty drawback rates for gold and silver jewellery, raising the gold refund to ₹773.17 per gram (about $9.3) from ₹639.59, and the silver refund to ₹14,990.66 per kilogram (about $180) from ₹9,089.33....
Flood of Small Parcels From China Pushes Belgian Airport’s Capacity to Limit
More than 4 million small parcels from China have been arriving each day at Liège freight airport in Belgium since early 2026, overwhelming the facility’s handling capacity. The airport’s customs team consists of just 80 inspectors, far fewer than needed to...
Iran War Is Accelerating SE Asia’s Drift From America
The US‑Israel‑Iran war is prompting Southeast Asian countries to reassess their security ties with Washington. Recent friction over a US‑Indonesia defence pact and over‑flight rights highlights growing wariness of American commitments. A 2026 ISEAS‑Yusof Ishak Institute survey shows a narrow...
Gulf Oil Output Can Rebound in Months After Hormuz Reopens: Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs research says Gulf crude output could rebound within months after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, though full pre‑war levels may take longer. The conflict cut Gulf production by 14.5 mbd, a 57 % drop. Recovery will depend on tanker availability,...
US Weaponizes Gas Abroad, Fuels Climate Crisis, Needs Clean Energy
America is basically using gas as a weapon of war against Asia and Europe: their violent actions in the Middle East have pushed up the price elsewhere but *not* in the US. Fossil gas causes climate change AND it's an...
US Imposes Sanctions on Chinese ‘Teapot’ Refinery for Buying Iranian Oil
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, a Chinese "teapot" plant, for buying billions of dollars worth of Iranian oil. The move also targeted roughly 40 vessels and shipping firms linked to Iran’s shadow fleet. China, which accounts for...
Japanese Success Stemmed From Subsidies, Not Management Style
Tordior is right. In the 1980s, the US and Europe encouraged Japanese investment because they thought it would bring the "Japanese" management style that explained Japan's manufacturing success. But Japanese manufacturers ended up being no more successful than local ones once...
Swap Lines Are Loans, Not Gifts, Fueling Dollar Demand
For those new to swap lines due to recent headlines, swap lines are not USD “gifts”, they are USD “loans”. The difference? Loans need to be paid back. And as such create dollar demand. Swap lines...
Canada Eyes China as Five-Pronged Tariff Wars Hammer Timber Exports
Canada announced a new national Forest Strategy that will shift its timber export focus from the United States toward markets like China, as U.S. antidumping, countervailing and Section 232 duties keep soft‑wood lumber tariffs near 35 percent through August 2026. The strategy, shaped...
Mexico-Japan Oil Trade Remains Sporadic, Future Uncertain
🇯🇵🇲🇽 The last oil shipment from Mexico to Japan was in October 2023, and the previous one was in April 2022. Will we see steady shipments going forward?
May 2026: Markets in Transition, No Central Bank Meetings
May 2026 Monthly: The global capital markets will enter May with a sense of transition rather than resolution. Neither the Federal Reserve, nor the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan meet in the month ahead. The market is...
Donald Trump’s Economic Warfare Abroad Comes Home
A series of op‑eds and analyses detail how Donald Trump’s unilateral Iran war strategy has exposed strategic, logistical, and moral failures. The conflict depleted U.S. missile inventories, strained relations with China, and sparked volatile oil markets that benefited a handful...
US Shock 2.0: Iran War Drives Market Disruption
May Monthly drops. Much talk about China 2.0 shock, but the main disruptive force is not emanating from Beijing now. US shock 1.0 were the tariffs and US shock 2.0 is the war on Iran. May is...
Gilts and the Pound Shield Britain From Fiscal Chaos
Gilts, and possibly GBP, ultimately stand between Britain and leftwing fiscal recklessness. Both will wake up, at some point, but as long as inflation is high and nominal GDP is purring, the government can get away with a lot.
US-Iran War to Fuel Petrol, Diesel Prices. How Can Stock Market Investors Make Money From It?
The US‑Iran conflict has lifted global crude oil above $80 per barrel, prompting analysts to expect a delayed rise in India’s retail petrol and diesel prices after key state elections. While state‑run marketers have kept retail rates steady at roughly...
Iran's Real Power: Strait of Hormuz Outweighs Nukes
“… The Strait of Hormuz, geography’s strategic gift to Iran, is now a more potent source of influence for Tehran than its nuclear program, ballistic missiles or proxies have ever been…” https://t.co/6yrHVfIioz
Libya's Oil Boom and Currency Surge Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
Libya’s oil production JUMPED from roughly 400 thousand barrels a day in March to 1.43 million barrels a day in April. In the same time frame, the Libyan dinar has APPRECIATED by over 17% vs. the USD. LIBYA = BIG WINNERS OF...
Singapore’s Fuel Hub Doubles Russian Oil Imports Amid War
Singapore, the world’s biggest ship refueling port, TURNS TO RUSSIA FOR OIL. Oil imports from Russia have DOUBLED since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. RUSSIA = BIG WINNER. https://t.co/oBUnq9FGNS
Swap Profit for Capacity: US‑China Equilibrium Emerges
I should just pin this somewhere: America has abundant profitability yet scarce capacity China has abundant capacity yet scarce profitability You address this and you naturally get a new equilibrium without having to label it rebalancing or whatever term you prefer.
China’s Commodity Stockpiles, Not Strategy, Cushioned Iran War Impact
1/5 It's true that China was able to withstand the effects of the Iran war better than many other countries because it had stockpiled commodities. But it is a little silly, perhaps even a little orientalist, to say that it did...
Questioning Reactions to Trump's Impact on Global Economy
Well, that’s off the table. How do they feel about Trump taking down the global economy?
Oil Bans Won’t Force Iran’s Surrender, Hormuz Remains Vulnerable
Cutting Iran’s oil exports—even to zero—doesn’t guarantee capitulation, writes @RKelanic Countries fight through far worse. Ukraine lost 30% of GDP—and kept going. Iran doesn’t need prosperity to disrupt Hormuz. #Geopolitics #OilMarkets #Iran #EnergyCrisis #Strategy
IMF Acknowledges Excessive Imbalances, Hinting at Katz Influence
Even the IMF formally recognizes (although everyone I know in the IMF has long understood this) that "excessive" imbalances are a problem. Is Dan Katz's influence starting to be felt?