Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rapid surge in urea prices, prompting sell‑side analysts to recommend buying North American nitrogen producers such as CF Industries, Nutrien and Mosaic. The logic hinged on the fact that roughly one‑third of global fertilizer shipments pass through Hormuz and that the region lacks a strategic reserve, making cheap natural‑gas‑based producers attractive. While these stocks have already rallied sharply, the trade is now heavily crowded. The blog argues that the real, under‑appreciated opportunity lies in South America’s fertilizer market.
Kuwait’s state‑owned oil company KPC announced a precautionary cut to crude output and refinery runs after the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down oil exports amid escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. The firm issued a force majeure...
A second bulk carrier, the Liberia‑flagged Sino Ocean, announced Chinese ownership while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, joining Iron Maiden that did the same earlier this week. Both vessels used destination signals like “CHINA OWNER” to seek safe passage amid...
Jerome Powell warns the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with national debt growing faster than the economy. Investors, learn how this affects the stock market, portfolio risk, and long-term wealth building. Smart value investing can protect your financial...
So the longer the Iran conflict lasts... 1. The longer oil prices are higher 2. The longer the Trump admin allows Russian oil to be sold without sanctions 3. The more financial firepower Russia has to support Iran to prolong the conflict ...rinse and...
Kuwait's state‑owned oil company KPC announced a precautionary cut to crude production and refinery runs after the Strait of Hormuz became effectively closed following U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran. In February, Kuwait produced 2.59 million barrels per day, with...
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. departs for a working visit to New York on March 8, where he will address the United Nations General Assembly and the Commission on the Status of Women. He will call for peace in the Middle East,...
Pakistan is turning to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea corridor to import crude after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz following recent U.S.–Israeli strikes. The disruption threatens Pakistan’s already tight fuel supply, prompting the government to adopt aggressive conservation policies,...
Indo‑US trade talks have been reset after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, activating the joint statement’s review clause. Both governments now have a three‑to‑four‑month window to reassess the proposed preferential...
George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures provides his first assessment of the recent attack on Iran, describing the immediate strategic context and the organization’s internal response. He explains that Geopolitical Futures has moved to a “Red Alert” posture, mirroring past crisis...
The blog post claims that within a week the Trump administration is moving toward a ground invasion of Iran, citing rumors of U.S. special forces embedded with Kurdish fighters and coordinated air strikes with Israel. It asserts that Russia is...
Singapore Airlines has cancelled all flights to and from Singapore-Dubai until 15 March 2026 due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Neighbouring countries will no longer be targeted, unless attacks originate from there, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says. What does this mean? — This could be the first sign of de-escalation in the one-week-old war. — Time will tell if Pezeshkian was actually speaking...
China’s export sector remains robust, buoyed by deep‑seated cost advantages and policy support, while domestic demand continues to falter. Container freight rates edged higher despite Iran‑related shipping risks, and real‑estate prices and sales plunged 27% year‑on‑year. The economy is increasingly...
India's Commerce Ministry announced that the full Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) benefits will be reinstated from April 1, 2026, after a temporary 50% reduction that lasted until March 31. The scheme, which refunds 0.3%‑3.9% of...
Gold prices have surged 47.6% since August 2025, reaching $5,092 per ounce, as central banks shift from Treasury securities to gold. The United States and Germany now report gold comprising over 80% of their reserve portfolios, with Italy and India also...
Iran’s low‑cost, $20,000 drones are emerging as a more disruptive strategic weapon than its nuclear program, targeting the Gulf’s diversified economic assets. The drone campaign threatens energy, logistics, tourism, real‑estate and financial sectors, raising the risk of capital flight and...
🚨 WEEK 2 OF THE IRAN WAR — MARKET OUTLOOK Trump posted "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" on Truth Social. No ceasefire. No off-ramp. The Strait of Hormuz is shut. Oil just had its biggest weekly gain in futures trading HISTORY (+35%). And the...
Japan has asked the United States to exclude it from a planned tariff hike that would raise duties from 10% to 15%, warning that higher rates could damage its auto sector and jeopardise the $550 billion Strategic Investment Initiative tied to...
The U.S. State Department approved a $151.8 million foreign military sale to Israel, delivering 12,000 BLU‑110A/B 1,000‑pound bomb bodies, and bypassed the usual congressional review by invoking an emergency authority. Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared an emergency to expedite the...
Nvidia ties CEO Huang’s $4M bonus to FY2027 revenue milestones. Macro: AI-driven revenue surge. Key factors: record FY26 sales, China export limits, TSMC shift to Vera Rubin. Risk: geopolitical export curbs. Trading insight: accumulate NVDA on meaningful pullbacks. — Viktor...
Israel’s inflation is 1.8%/yr. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.1%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/CWltetUlYU
Armed attacks on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026 forced shipping lines to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. The Cape route, once a contingency, saw usage surge, echoing past disruptions of the...
Mexico’s inflation is 3.8%/yr. Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 9.2%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/jQ05GUvmPW
I originally published this financial history article in January 2023, but its core point about how markets have a habit of treating geopolitical risk as background noise right up until the moment it’s not seems relevant again. https://t.co/KjyIjzqpnb
In 2025, Canadian tourism to the United States dropped 25% after heightened geopolitical tensions and Trump‑era rhetoric. The decline hit service‑oriented ZIP codes where Canadian visitors comprised at least 1% of foot traffic, leading to a 6% employment contraction in...
PMI shows US manufacturing softness. That means supply chains too. What will the Iraq war do?
Adding to Kuwait's economic misery, it has just been forced to shut down its oil production. Since the Global Financial Crisis, Kuwait's economy has tanked. Turkey's has boomed. And contrary to WESTERN PROPAGANDA, Iran's did not collapse, prior to the US-Israeli...
A new study uses large‑language‑model techniques to convert the IMF’s 70‑year AREAER narrative archive into a daily, country‑level dataset of cross‑border financial restrictions (iBoP‑C and iBoP‑S). The high‑frequency indices reveal a stop‑go pattern of financial liberalisation, with advanced economies easing...
Following geopolitical shocks, investors have been conditioned to buy the dip. THIS TIME THEY MIGHT BE WRONG. https://t.co/rbiIiiZSzE
To avoid further panic in the oil markets, I anticipate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be forced to "unsanction" more Russian oil trapped in the sanctioned shadow fleet next week. SANCTIONS CREATE NOTHING BUT TROUBLE. IT'S TIME FOR BESSENT...
The Federal Reserve entered 2026 optimistic about a soft landing, but the sudden Iran‑Israel conflict has driven crude above $95 per barrel, pushing gasoline prices to record highs and reviving cost‑push inflation concerns. A weak jobs report further erodes labor‑market...
Despite what you read daily in the press, the de-dollarization narrative doesn’t have legs. In 2025, overseas investors bought a net $1.55 trillion in long term US financial assets. That’s UP 31.4% since 2024. https://t.co/NUFKLfdh4l
Iran war headlines will be in focus this week but US inflation will also be front and center. Here are the reports to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US -CPI -Personal Income/Spending -UMich Sentiment Index -Durable Goods -Housing Data 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ & GE IP -GE Trade 🇨🇦 CA -Jobs -Trade
The International Energy Agency’s chief announced that global oil markets are currently well‑supplied, eliminating any immediate need to tap strategic inventories. While some regions continue to experience supply disruptions, the agency sees no justification for coordinated production cuts at this...
In the space of one week, we've gone from everyone saying oil prices would barely move to now everyone falling over themselves predicting $100 oil. Whatever. I don't think that's where the trade is. The trade is in the Dollar,...
In trade-weighted terms, the Yen is lower now than mid-2024 when Japan intervened to prop it up. Japan's high public debt is a terrible weakness. When unexpected shocks come along - like war in Iran - its hands are tied...
Oil prices surged to a two‑year high after Qatar’s energy minister warned that all Gulf oil and gas exporters could cease production within days amid the escalating Middle‑East conflict. Brent crude rose above $93 a barrel, and the minister suggested...
STRAIT OF HORMUZ re-opening is central to any effort to prevent another spike in oil prices: https://t.co/hWRuSylzaC
MASSIVE: Polymarket traders expect US forces to enter Iran before the end of the year. https://t.co/2rC7Fs38kh
Countries that have adopted electric vehicles the most aggressively will suffer the least from oil price spikes. The US, of course, is not one of those. [Corrected graph.] https://t.co/jl1blEELO0
FT: US investors are increasingly asking Asian fund managers to carve out special vehicles so they can invest in the region without falling foul of American investment restrictions on Chinese technology. https://t.co/BxNIMQgnjK
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The US reverses course. First, the US placed 25% “penalty tariffs” on India for buying Russian crude. Now, the US has granted a 30-day waiver that will allow India to buy Russian oil. MODI’S STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/zWsRpg2QtK
New at THE OVERSHOOT: If You Thought the Inflation Outlook Was Bad Before... https://t.co/EpRm2cRwzB The big question is whether the latest "shock", which by my count is at least the 3rd in the past 6 years, is enough to recalibrate beliefs about what's...
The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...
The Economist: “China’s new target is too low. Judging by the country’s recent record, it will set a ceiling on the government’s efforts to revive demand, perpetuating the economy’s biggest problems.” https://t.co/r2SPU7niNb
russia providing iran with targeting assistance against the us military. us reducing sanctions on russian oil export. quite the both/and for putin.
Oil shocks get headlines. Diesel shocks stop the world Trucks, ships, mines, farms, trains, planes & militaries all run on it Persian Gulf crude is ideal for making it Diesel fuel price hikes are the real killers of the economy #diesel #oilmarkets #energy #Hormuz...
Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil supply But roughly one-third of seaborne oil trade normally pass thru the Strait The real shock is 35% of globally traded oil. Peak oil is today’s reality. #oil #energy #Hormuz #geopolitics #EnergyMarkets https://t.co/ENXgbxfCcf
WTI Crude Oil prices spiked 36% this week to $91/barrel. This was the 2nd biggest weekly increase in the last 40 years, trailing only the 2020 Covid rebound after Crude Oil prices crashed to $15/barrel. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes...
