Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Asian Equities Wobble as US‑Iran Tensions Lift Oil, Mixed Market Moves
Asian stocks slipped on Friday as renewed US‑Iran tensions pushed Brent crude above $106 a barrel. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.45% while China, Hong Kong and South Korea fell, leaving the MSCI Asia‑Pacific index up only 0.3% on the day.
Fed Set to Lead Uneasy G-7 With Rates Kept on Hold This Week
The Federal Reserve will join other G7 central banks in keeping interest rates unchanged this week, maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.25‑5.50%. Policymakers cite softened inflation but warn that renewed energy price pressures from the Iran‑Israel conflict could reignite...
Dollar Dominance Monitor Cited in Financial Times Article on Quantity of Global Trade Invoiced in Dollars
The Financial Times cited the Dollar Dominance Monitor (DDM) in a new analysis showing that roughly 85% of global trade is still invoiced in U.S. dollars, down from a peak of about 90% in 2020. The DDM attributes the modest...
The US Wants to Cut Off China’s Chip Equipment. China Says the Supply Chain Will Break for Everyone.
The U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced the MATCH Act, compelling the Netherlands and Japan to align DUV lithography export restrictions with U.S. rules within 150 days, effectively cutting off ASML’s remaining sales and service to Chinese fabs. China’s Ministry...
WATCH YOUR BIDS (S2026 E11)
The latest "Watch Your Bids" podcast (Season 2026 Episode 11) brings together market veterans Peter Boockvar, Ankur Crawford, Goldman Sachs’ Dominic Wilson, and labor‑economist Kathryn Anne Edwards. Boockvar cautions investors about over‑bidding in a volatile environment, while Crawford dismantles the prevailing "bubble" narrative...
Our Ambitions Will Be Dead if We Depend on External Capital
Kenyan President William Ruto warned that Africa forfeits roughly $230 billion each year by exporting crude oil unrefined, a loss that could rise to over $500 billion if domestic refining and downstream processing were developed. He linked this value gap to the...
Middle East Conflict Triggers Jet‑Fuel Shortage Threat as Crude Supplies Falter
A United Nations‑cited analysis warns that the Iran‑Israel war is driving a jet‑fuel shortage as the Strait of Hormuz closure cuts crude supplies. Oil prices have surged past $120 a barrel, squeezing airlines and raising concerns across the aviation sector.
US Enforces Full Hormuz Blockade, Ends Russia, Iran Oil Waivers, Fuel Shock Hits Global Supply Chain
Washington has declared a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and refused to renew emergency waivers that allowed Russian and Iranian crude to flow. The moves, announced by Pentagon officials and Treasury spokesperson Scott Bessent, have triggered a sharp...
Critical Metals Takes 92.5% Stake in Greenland’s Tanbreez Rare‑Earth Deposit
Critical Metals announced it now holds a 92.5% interest in Greenland’s Tanbreez rare‑earth project after the government transferred its remaining 50.5% stake. The deal unlocks a high‑grade deposit containing all eight heavy rare‑earth elements and positions the company at the...
Trump Shifts Iran Policy to Economic Pressure Amid Leadership Questions
President Donald Trump has pivoted the U.S. approach to Iran from direct military strikes to a sustained campaign of economic pressure, even as a third aircraft carrier arrives in the region. The shift follows eight weeks of assaults that have...
India’s Growth Outlook Holds Steady Amid Iran War, Weak Monsoon and Reform Push
India’s growth trajectory remains resilient despite a weaker-than‑expected monsoon, soaring oil prices linked to the Iran conflict and tightening global financing. The RBI kept policy rates unchanged while analysts trimmed FY27 GDP forecasts to 5.9%‑6.7%, still close to the central...
Sugar Futures Rise 2% as Brazil Real Rally and Tightening Surplus Outlook Spur Rebound
New York and London sugar futures climbed on Friday, with NY sugar gaining 2.43% and London sugar 1.82%, after a sharp three‑week decline. The rally was driven by a stronger Brazilian real, lower Brazil production forecasts and revised global surplus...
IMF: UK and Germany Hardest Hit by Energy Crisis
The UK and Germany are the two countries in the developed world whose economic growth prospects have been most hurt by the ongoing energy crisis, according to the IMF. This is totally unsurprising given that the UK has shut down its...
France Reaffirms Efforts To Reopen Strait Of Hormuz
French President Emmanuel Macron announced a push to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days and weeks, emphasizing freedom of navigation under international law. He warned that panic over geopolitical uncertainty could itself trigger shortages. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne...
The World’s Central Banks Are Now Treating Stablecoins Like a Real Multi-Trillion Dollar Monetary Threat
Central banks have moved from debating stablecoin risk to treating them as a systemic threat, emphasizing control, potential runs, and dollarization. BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos called for global cooperation, warning that large‑scale redemptions could destabilize Treasury markets....
The Largest Aid Drop in History Just Happened. Here's What It Cost American Workers.
The OECD reported a 23% drop in global official development assistance in 2025, the steepest on record, driven largely by a 57% cut in U.S. foreign aid. The reduction eliminated roughly $2 billion in USAID food‑aid purchases and cancelled contracts worth...
India Mulls Options On Iran Port Stake Before Sanctions Kick In
India is weighing options for its $120 million stake in Iran’s Chabahar port as the U.S. sanctions waiver expires on April 26. Officials are considering a temporary transfer of the stake to an Iranian entity while keeping the investment alive, pending talks...
The Petrodollar Post-Mortem: Why the Bitcoin Standard Is the Only Way to Price Energy After the Iran War.
The 2026 Iran‑U.S. conflict shattered the petrodollar regime when the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, forcing oil‑exporting nations and the BRICS bloc to abandon dollar‑based settlement. The resulting energy price volatility exposed the fragility of fiat accounting, prompting sovereign individuals...
US Stocks Outshine Europe on Fundamentals and Technicals
Regarding these latest charts from the Financial Times: The question isn't whether US equity markets are better positioned than Europe to weather the impact of the war. Between superior fundamentals and stronger technicals, the US clearly holds the edge—valuation gaps notwithstanding. The...
Hormuz Crisis Unfolds: Market Calm, Leaders Navigate Shock
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @Amena__Bakr about the latest tracking of the Hormuz crisis, the shockingly sanguine market reaction thus far, and how the political and industry leadership across the region...
The Ceasefire Trade Tests the Bond Market's Resolve
A two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire announced on April 8 drove Brent crude down from $109 to $95 a barrel, erasing roughly half the war premium. The price drop lifted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz but left the 10‑year Treasury yield...
Cross-Border QR Payments Gain Ground as Vietnam, Korea Connect Retail Networks
Vietnam’s National Payment Corporation (NAPAS) and South Korea’s KEB Hana Bank, together with BIDV and GLN International, have launched a cross‑border QR‑code payment service that links Vietnamese retail merchants with Korean banking apps and e‑wallets. The platform, operated by NAPAS...
Japan's Debt Trap Leaves Yen as Sole Release Valve
Japan is trapped. ~230% debt/GDP. BOJ owns 50%+ of the JGB market. Deeply negative real rates. The Yen is weakening despite rising yields because the market knows they can't meaningfully hike without triggering a fiscal crisis. The currency is the...
Yuan Emerges as Safe Haven Amid Dollar Uncertainty
“Xi Jinping…said the country must have a ‘powerful’ currency. The yuan is still far from that. But it is becoming something else: a source of comfort for countries and firms disconcerted by America’s haphazard stewardship of the truly powerful dollar.” https://t.co/cZJuG30DSV
China Unveils $233 Billion Domestic Demand Plan to Sustain Growth
Beijing announced a dedicated 2026‑2030 action plan to expand domestic demand, backed by ultra‑long treasury bonds and a consumer‑goods trade‑in scheme that drove new‑car sales above 1.6 trillion yuan ($233 billion) in 2025. The move signals a structural shift in China’s growth...
Closing Hormuz Costs Billions, Not Just Pennies
“Too expensive. I’m a very cost-conscious person” Every day Hormuz remains closed the world loses 13 million barrels of oil, current market price ~$1.35 billion.
Global Growth Stalls; France Flatlines at 0.5%
Global growth is very weak. The yellow column shows what growth in 2026 would be if GDP is flat after Q4 '25. This is what people call "carryover." For France, that's 0.5% versus my forecast of 0.7% in gray. France...
Hormuz Closure and U.S. ‘Shoot‑and‑Kill’ Orders Cripple Oil Flow, Push Jet‑Fuel Prices Higher
The United States has ordered its navy to fire on any vessel laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively sealing the vital chokepoint. The closure has choked oil shipments, sent jet‑fuel prices soaring and rippled through fertilizer and petrochemical...
Roundhill Launches First Non‑political Recession Prediction ETFs
Just saw Roundhill filed for more prediction market ETFs to track Recession Yes and Recession No. These first non-political ones. I’m sure we will see more. https://t.co/aN2OoT46Yr
Iran Holds the Cards on Hormuz Strait
My take on @RT_com on who will ultimately control the Strait of Hormuz: "Either you run the show, or the show runs you. And in the case of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will be running the show." IRAN = HOLDS THE...
ASX 200 Builds Technical Base as Geopolitical Tensions Hit Commodities
The ASX 200 closed slightly lower on Friday but held above the 8,735 Renko base, signaling a technical floor amid a 17.9% plunge in IGO and a 5.7% drop in Fortescue. Geopolitical pressure on oil and a looming CPI report...
Canada’s USMCA Renegotiations Challenging Regardless of Trump
USMCA renegotiations were going to be tricky for Canada, even if there had been no Trump 2.0. My take, with the great @IanRAusten https://t.co/gThypf118R
BoE's Rapid Bond Unwind Fuels UK's Higher Yields
The UK isn't the fiscal basket case it's made out to be. During the LDI crisis in 2022, the Bank of England kicked asset managers to the curb. It's also unwound its gov't bond holdings way faster than other central...
UAE GDP Projection Corrects on Conflict
The May 2026 MEED report revises the UAE’s GDP forecast downward as regional conflict adds pressure, yet the projects sector continues to post year‑to‑date momentum. The economy is absorbing shocks across multiple fronts, with banks staying stable, ADNOC expanding upstream and...
State‑directed Capital Hampers Growth by Rewarding Politics over Efficiency
The textbook negative take is that over time state directed capital lowers potential growth by allocating capital on the basis of political connections rather than efficiency. Any one off can look successful, it’s the impact over years that important.
Oil Prices Already Reflect War Shortfalls, Further Rises Unlikely
I covered 3 topics on this morning's live stream: (i) the 60% rise from before the war means oil already prices the physical shortfalls unfolding now, so prices shouldn't rise much further; (ii) global supply chain disruptions; (iii) rising global...
Pakistan Talks: Iran Delivered Both Their Demands and Reservations About US Demands
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi met Pakistani officials in Islamabad, delivering Tehran's demands and reservations regarding U.S. conditions for renewed talks. Tehran reiterated that it will not negotiate while the United States maintains red lines, specifically demanding the lifting...
Macron Calls EU Debt Rollover Essential, Not Optional
Macron says it would be ‘silly’ not to roll over EU Covid-era debt https://t.co/7Nctd2XiKo via @Newsbaum @NikasSotiris https://t.co/62p9hqman4
Hormuz Delay Persists; Stocks Hit Record Highs as Forecasted
Strait of Hormuz likely will not fully reopen for months, Baker Hughes executive says @seekingalpha and stocks are at record highs, just as everyone predicted https://t.co/byIcXkNS7j
Petrodollar Debate Ignoring Pre‑Crisis Global Surplus Figures
There is something about the petrodollar debate that seems to make its participant believe it can be conducted in the absence of solid numbers -- A reminder, prior to the crisis in the Strait, the global surplus as in Asia (manufacturing...
Rate Hikes Hit Federal Debt, Not Corporate Borrowing
This is partially a symptom of fiscal dominance. Rate hikes pushed up federal interest expense rather than corporate interest expense.
US Work Hours Fell as Benefits Grew, Not Wages
US hours per person declined after 2000 in large part due to the rise in benefits available to non-employed eg health-related benefits. In non-US countries a rise in labour supply can generally be accounted for by higher wages, lower fixed...
Central Bank Independence Ensures Commitment to Price Stability
Central bank independence refers to the absence of political influence on monetary policymaking. It is widely accepted that independence acts as a commitment device to achieve price stability. https://t.co/Gp9sjyM0Pv
Tariffs and War Drag US Consumer Sentiment to Record Low
The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index dropped to an all-time low. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & WAR MADNESS = BAD NEWS FOR THE US ECONOMY. https://t.co/k0nUUAnksC
Iran War Enters Week Nine, Strait of Hormuz Closed
Today marks the start of the 9th week of the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/SlkCd7pW0e
Oil Inventories Near Record Lows Despite Potential Hormuz Reopening
The world’s oil buffers are rapidly being depleted, with crude inventories poised to reach the lowest levels on record even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in full by the end of this month: GS’s Daan Struyven & team https://t.co/Z3i0GtxRlv
China Weaponized Rare Earths Against Japan in 2010
Will set aside the debate over the merits of Lighthizer's trade war with China in 2018 China clearly weaponized rare earths against Japan in 2010. This Chinese move wasn't simple a response to the 301 1/2
MSCI ACWI Ends Year Positive 28 of 38 Times
Despite intra-year volatility, the MSCI $ACWI Index had positive year-end total returns 28 out of the last 38 years since 1988. Standard Chartered https://t.co/Gs34aTnb4j
Senate Banking Committee Schedules Warsh Fed Chair Vote
The Senate Banking Committee has set a committee vote for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination on Wednesday https://t.co/l3pMHESk0G
IMF Lifts 2026 Growth Forecast Amid Hormuz Worries
If Hormuz blockade continues, all would change. But perspective matters. See the IMF global economic growth forecast: Published in Apr 2025: 3.0% (for 2026) Published in Apr 2026: 3.1% (for 2026) Current IMF 2026 forecast is **higher** than its estimate published a year...