Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Zambia and the United Kingdom have signed an amendment that reduces Zambia's outstanding debt to the UK from $291 million to about $277 million and pushes the final repayment deadline from 2032 to 2043. The deal is part of Zambia’s broader debt‑restructuring effort under the G20 Common Framework, which now covers 100% of its official external debt. The amendment, linked to UK Export Finance funding for a nationwide health‑infrastructure programme, aims to ease short‑term debt service pressures. Officials say the extended terms will free fiscal space for infrastructure, health and social projects.
The Strait of Hormuz is shut. So what's a catalyst for oil prices to fall and not rise as everyone's now saying? The most obvious thing would be the collapse of Iran's regime, the odds of which are rising every...
U.S. officials defended a 30‑day waiver allowing Indian refineries to purchase Russian oil, aiming to ease market pressure as gasoline prices surged amid the Iran conflict. The waiver, announced by Energy Secretary Chris Wright and UN Ambassador Mike Waltz, seeks...
Iran’s financial markets entered a pronounced lull after US and Israeli strikes heightened geopolitical risk, leaving many trading venues partially shut and liquidity thin. Online dollar pricing via USDT surged to IRR 1,550,000 per dollar, yet physical dollar dealers accept roughly...
The United States and Israel are escalating a military campaign against Iran, raising concerns that the conflict could divert American attention and resources. Analysts warn that this distraction may allow China to deepen its strategic foothold in the Indo‑Pacific. The...
Everybody is watching the Strait of Hormuz, but they should also be watching Singapore. The image on the right are all the laden tankers sitting in an around Simgapore. The one in the left, with less ships, are loaded Very...
Norwegian Ambassador Petter Ølberg delivered a 12‑page report to the WTO General Council outlining the state of reform discussions ahead of the March 26‑29 MC14 Ministerial in Yaoundé. The document stresses that no member will challenge the consensus rule, and it frames...
Nice job Fam getting my old colleague and experienced central banker 5k followers in 3 days. Still massively underfollowed. Fwiw IMHO the U.S. Fed is going to need an explosion of inflation to hike in the next year....
Israel's military announced it will target any individual involved in appointing a successor to Iran's slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The statement, posted in Farsi on X, underscores Israel's intent to intervene after the U.S. and Israeli strikes that...
Mexican authorities have suspended import activities and begun canceling permits for 350 steel‑importing firms as part of Operation Clean‑Up, a coordinated crackdown on smuggling and misuse of trade programs. The Ministry of Economy flagged these companies among 750 firms suspected...
Goldman Sachs warned that global oil prices could breach $100 a barrel within days and climb to $150 by month‑end if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Iran’s effective blockade has cut crude flows through the strait to roughly 10%...
East African economies are bracing for fallout from the escalating Gulf conflict after US and Israel attacks on Iran. Brent crude surged past $84 a barrel, pushing fuel costs and inflation higher across the region. Economists warn that higher import...
The Iran‑Israel conflict has forced Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to divert attention and resources after Iranian missile reprisals, weakening their mediation role in Sudan’s three‑year war. Analysts argue this shift could either spark renewed diplomatic pressure to end...
Anas Alhajji warns that the escalating Iran war could push oil prices to unprecedented levels, potentially driving Brent above $120 per barrel. He cites a likely sharp reduction in Iranian output and limited OPEC spare capacity as key supply constraints....
Foreign institutional investors dumped nearly $2 billion from Indian equities in March, driven by heightened Middle‑East tensions and Brent crude trading above $90 a barrel. The outflows, amounting to roughly Rs 21,829 crore, pushed the Nifty 50 down about 6% year‑to‑date and erased Rs 19 lakh crore...
A recent video analysis highlights a sharp oil price shock, driven by escalating Middle‑East tensions, that pushed crude above 10% in a single week. Simultaneously, the market for exchange‑grade silver bars is tightening, with inventories down roughly 15% as industrial...
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
Happy International Women’s Day. Best way to boost growth and stimulate economies globally- is more female inclusion. The stats from the World Bank are stunning https://t.co/qbI4nWksqf
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted roughly 700 oil cargoes, representing about $40 billion in trade, and exposed the vulnerability of Europe’s post‑2022 energy strategy. Simultaneously, Russia warned it could exit the European market before any formal ban,...
For those looking for a real-time measure for Iran-related consumer stress... Still well below Ukraine Invasion levels. https://t.co/QMoOhztOkb
If you thought oil and energy was the only thing impacted by the Gulf War, hang on to your containers.
MSCI stock index gains have halved to a 7% year‑to‑date increase, while JP Morgan’s local and hard‑currency corporate and sovereign bonds are up about 1% YTD. The escalating Israel‑US versus Iran war is drawing parallels to the Russia‑Ukraine conflict’s global market...
“It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy.” #AdamSmith’s advocacy of #freetrade remains relevant today—though you wouldn’t think so from...
American support for international trade is at an all-time high (and, no, not just among Democrats) https://t.co/QayxCkWNFn
Friday’s 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread sits above the Federal Reserve’s 2 % inflation target, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s Dodd‑Katz‑Wright (DKW) expected inflation series. Both metrics suggest market participants price in CPI inflation well above 2 % for the medium term. Kalshi’s latest...
The volume of crude production that Iraq has *already* shut-in is larger than the peak of *feared* [but never realized] Russian supply loss in early 2022 that spiked crude prices above $120 per barrel.
The Financial Times warns that rising oil prices threaten to fuel inflation. WRONG. Oil shocks change RELATIVE prices, but DO NOT cause SUSTAINED inflation. INFLATION IS ALWAYS & EVERYWHERE A MONETARY PHENOMENON. https://t.co/zvENzIWzCy
Abu Dhabi’s state‑owned oil giant Adnoc announced it has activated contingency protocols to keep crude flowing despite the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict disrupting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The company is adjusting offshore production, leveraging the 1.5 million b/d ADCOP pipeline that...
I, too, believe that shopping traffic through the Strait will begin to pick up again, but “regular” isn’t a word that will apply again so long as the war continues And ships will only do so because prices and economic incentives...
For those who want an overview without watching my full hour+ long video on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis https://t.co/QDALtGFKiC
BAGHDAD, March 8 (Reuters) - Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to...
Iran may end up being the Pin that pricked the bubble, but the Banking and Financial Sector Stocks are Crashing equity markets as the impact of a slowing economy and the US private credit market takes hold- Hindi Video... https://t.co/sOz3SepGUO via...
This galaxy brain it’s-all-about-China’s-oil talking point drives me *insane* Only reason China was able to buy so much discounted crude from Ven/Irn/Ruz was because of US sanctions, largely imposed by the Trump admin(!), which scared off other buyers and left them...
"Since Liberation Day -- the President's last big, bold set of promises when he told us everything was about to be magical -- we've lost jobs. We've gone backwards... I'm going to call that a jobs recession." https://t.co/GZQfUVRfWG
Bitcoin thrived during an era of easy money, but Wartime Bitcoin will thrive in the era of hard money to come
The US economy has been surprisingly resilient in the face of so much policy chaos. But you have to wonder whether that can continue, if the f***wittery just never stops
Fertilisers are rightfully getting a lot of focus now. China looks to be ok (for now). The state has stockpiles and there is material at ports. Exports of urea (nitrogen-based) were already tightly managed and it's hard to see more...
Global leading indicators, February 2026 - Upturn confirmed, will it slip in rising oil prices? https://t.co/bHBBQw0j9O, my latest blog post.
We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine...
Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...
PHOTO OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil. Nine days into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. Tehran has sent some of them across the Strait of Hormuz into the high seas wihthout any...
“The US is roughly speaking oil independent… on net, we export petroleum products.” That’s why this is less an ‘America is poorer’ story than an ‘Americans reshuffle who wins’ story. Oil industry wins. Drivers lose. https://t.co/Efd22aQEeK
South Korea is considering to introduce an oil price cap for the first time in 30 years 🇰🇷 🛢️ It is being considered carefully because of possible side effects including market distortions and fiscal burdens, according to Yonhap https://t.co/r66h5y13D6
This is very reminiscent of the “WDC is a zero because of neon gas shortage from Ukraine” episode. The impact of higher oil, or more importantly JKM prices, for Korean equities is a real discussion. This helium stuff is not though.
"Texas Feedlot Operators Explain Why U.S. Beef Supply Depends on Mexican Cattle Imports" https://t.co/D3IHviRfRg https://t.co/fO9Ac9MceR
Looks like the start of a beautiful “oil glut” partnership between the IEA and the Trump administration. Markets may have other ideas. #OilMarkets #EnergyPolicy #IEA #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/IPd77wk6Q7
Claims that the world is “well supplied with oil” during a Hormuz crisis are obviously false @SecScottBessent With 35% of maritime oil flows offline, your comments are at best out-of-touch with reality. At worst, they're lies #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar #Geopolitics
Strike on a Teheran fuel depot is unconfirmed @shanaka86 If true, it's about domestic fuel, not oil exports The target choice matters. It squeezes Iran internally without blowing up global oil markets. #IranWar #oilmarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics
The Strait of Hormuz has seen virtually ZERO movement in the past 24 hours. IRAN CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE KEY CHOKEPOINT IN THE GULF.
CNN reports that Trump's war in Iran is costing the US more than $890 MILLION PER DAY. WAR = MASSIVE COST = FISCAL PROBLEMS. https://t.co/NDO5P1kaiE
