Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Escalating US‑Israel and Iran conflict is disrupting tech hubs across the Middle East, prompting global giants like Microsoft, Nvidia and Amazon to shut their Dubai offices and shift staff to remote work. Indian founders based in Dubai report that day‑to‑day operations remain largely unchanged, with most choosing to stay despite security concerns. The turmoil has rattled markets, dragging India’s Sensex and Nifty down nearly 5% since the conflict began. Supply‑chain delays and potential SaaS subscription postponements pose emerging challenges for Indian startups with Gulf exposure.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer told CNBC that oil prices, which surged above $100 per barrel after Middle Eastern production cuts tied to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, will "tumble" once the operation concludes. President Donald Trump echoed the short‑term...
Thank you, Andrew, Becky, and Joe for the conversation on Squawk Box this morning. FYI, here is one of the clips... https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/the-global-economy-is-subject-to-more-violent-and-frequent-shocks-says-mohamed-el-erian.html ... and here is the full interview: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-allianz-chief-economic-advisor-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets @cnbc #oil #middleeastwar
Starting May 1, China will waive import duties on virtually all goods from every African nation except Eswatini, expanding a previous exemption for 33 least‑developed countries. The move, announced by President Xi at the African Union summit, is framed as...
fun fact: at $90/barrel, the impact of the war is equivalent to a ~$50/ton carbon tax, right where the biden administration estimated the social cost of carbon
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
Saudi Aramco has begun curbing output at two fields as the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck from the US‑Israeli war with Iran rattles global oil supplies. Meanwhile, Roche’s breast‑cancer drug giredestrant failed a late‑stage trial, sending its shares down more than...
The EU Institute for Security Studies recommends an “escalate to de‑escalate” approach toward China, urging faster use of the Anti‑Coercion Instrument (ACI), the bloc’s most powerful trade‑defence tool. The report notes China’s growing trade surplus of €359.3 billion and its leverage...
International Maritime Organization Secretary‑General Arsenio Domínguez condemned a series of attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, noting at least seven seafarer deaths and multiple injuries. He highlighted the missile strike on the tug Mussafah 2, which killed four...
Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows real per‑capita household disposable income remained 3.9% below its COVID‑19 peak in 2025, with annual growth averaging just 0.6% this decade. This represents the slowest decade‑average increase since the late 1950s. The stagnant income...
Recent speeches by Federal Reserve officials highlight artificial intelligence as a key driver of future productivity growth. They differentiate labor productivity—real GDP per hour worked—from total factor productivity (TFP), both illustrated in a FRED series covering 1988‑2024. Economists contend AI...
Oil prices surged to near $120 a barrel as Iran’s conflict intensified following the appointment of a new supreme leader, then retreated to about $106 for Brent and $103 for WTI. The fighting threatens production and shipping in the Persian...
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's not going to get more closed than it already is. All the risk is now on the other side, i.e. when and to what extent it opens. You can bet Trump is very...
Air cargo networks across the Gulf are crippled by flight cancellations and airspace closures, prompting forwarders to reroute freight by truck, especially through Saudi Arabia. Freight rates have surged, with southern‑Asia to North America lanes up 36% and Asia‑Europe lanes...
Macro: USD & yields up; oil spike lifts risk‑off. Key: $5000 sup, $5150–$5200 res. Risks: Middle East safe‑haven vs dollar strength. Trade: Buy on decisive close >$5200. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Recent employment trends combined with the oil price spike suggest recession risk is rising, and this was not on the market's bingo card this year... Though February job losses were skewed by one-time effects, the weakness is nonetheless part of...
Taiwan’s February exports surged 20.6% year‑on‑year to US$49.8 billion, marking the 28th consecutive month of growth and pushing the trade surplus to US$12.77 billion. The first two months of 2026 recorded US$115.57 billion in exports, up 44.5% – the strongest bi‑annual performance in...
Fertilizer prices are soaring as the United States, Israel and Iran become entangled in a new geopolitical conflict, disrupting key Middle‑East supply chains. The spike mirrors the 2022 commodity shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent grain, fertilizer...
Commodity Price Pumps and Iran vs. Russia's Ukraine Invasion - The US exports about 25% of its grain production, and prices have been declining on the back of the 2022 spikes, which incentivized more supply -- notably from Brazil. Russia's...
A 33 km waterway which is 3000 km away from you can decide how much you must pay for petrol, cylinder etc. A 33 km waterway between Iran–Oman called the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global crude oil passes through this route,...
House leaders filed HB 8292, allowing the Philippine President to suspend or reduce fuel excise taxes during national or global emergencies, triggered by soaring oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. The bill sets a concrete threshold—Dubai crude at $80 per...
Taiwan’s National Development Council reported its composite economic gauge at 39 in January, keeping the index in the red zone for a second straight month and signaling an overheating economy. The money‑supply sub‑index (M1B) improved to a green light, while...
The Middle East conflict triggered the biggest one‑week jump in oil prices on record, pushing WTI crude above $92 a barrel. At the same time, U.S. economic data revealed the worst monthly job loss since the pandemic, with 92,000 positions...
On central banks: Judging from the shift in market probabilities of interest rate actions, the markets now believe that single-mandate central banks (that is, price stability), such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are in no mood...
Rising tensions with Iran are driving Brent crude above $100 a barrel, sparking fears of a prolonged oil shock. The iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA), heavily weighted toward oil and financials, has slipped to near five‑year lows despite the...
Crude oil breached $100 per barrel on March 8, its first four‑year high, driven by tighter inventories, OPEC+ output cuts, and Middle East tensions. The price surge coincided with a political jab from California Governor Gavin Newsom, who mocked former...
Philippine fuel retailers set pump prices based on the cost of the next shipment rather than the price they paid weeks ago, using a replacement‑cost accounting model tied to the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) benchmark. A mandatory 15‑ to...
The Gulf countries are just as strong as the USA because it is the US that agreed to DEFEND them…. So, all of them combined just fall under the US…. Iran is already fighting their protector, so it can literally...
Energy shock rewrites the ECB’s rate path as traders bet on hikes https://t.co/PhHe7FAJb5 via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/FvJg4WW5Ei
EU Buys 100% of Russian Arctic LNG Just 9 Months Before Planned Gas Ban. And the Iran war impact? https://t.co/235AGjQMDs
1Y zero coupon inflation swaps have jumped (obvi) as oil prices surged Much more surprising to me is that 1Y1Y inflation swaps have risen That is, this isn’t a “price spike = recession” move All this while the super-backwardation in crude doesn’t...
How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance - Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era. https://t.co/XjVHuN91u9
10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY * oil (red, LS) USDCNY * oil (green, RS2) Since Japan lifted YCC on 10y JGBs 👇 "Iran doesn't have to beat the US military; it just has to beat the UST market" -Title of 3/3/26...
The Bank Trump Is Relying On for Rare-Earth Minerals Impact so far on dependence on China? Zero.... https://t.co/Ux4lLRcEqv via @NYTimes
Chinese WSJ: Severe energy crisis with limited shipping thru the Strait of Hormuz. What kind of crisis will it bring to global logistics and supply chains? Fuel for transporting goods for manufacturing and retail. Businesses and consumers.
Compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion, this Iran war has produced 2x the move in oil, but only 1/2 the move in DXY. This is exactly what I'm talking about playing out - the dollar is structurally challenged. https://t.co/H1VIqKNbr7
The Dollar (blue) and rate differentials (black) are massively diverging. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens - even if only a little bit - we'll see a very large drop in the Dollar. We're still very much in a regime...
Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, became the third leader in the history of the Islamic Republic. The Venn diagram of what is acceptable to Israel and the United States, and what Khamenei can credibly offer, has no overlap...
"Tariffs may have affected manufacturing employment, which declined by 119,000 in 2025. Likewise, the trade sensitive transportation and warehousing sector declined by 123,800." https://t.co/ed9bs6nNSn
$WTI above $100. $VIX above 33. Nikkei down 5.4%. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Zero tankers transiting. This isn't a supply disruption. It's a supply deletion. And the SPR is at 40-year lows. https://t.co/WaTisWuS4y
Iran's oil production is down 70%, according to reports. When the fifth largest oil producing country in the world (at 5 million barrels a day) drops like this, we now know what the underlying asset price will do. https://t.co/jRLuiAK0xM
Western economies cannot afford stagflation, particularly with current deficits. Before the "war" started. The Calligulino administration is composed of dimwits incapable of grasping the consequences of their actions. https://t.co/dtGLn9cwTw
My debut in @TheFP - This Is How an Energy Crisis Starts - by Ellen R. Wald https://t.co/8Isvg3TkzQ @ACGlobalEnergy #oil #iran #oott
The war in Iran is scrambling the economic outlook for the Federal Reserve — again. https://t.co/TGmVeLOISN
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
"Historical risk-off moves after an oil shock have generally required at least one of: Large and sustained oil price spike...Hawkish policy response...Broader macro damage:" Deutsche Bank. We're "closer than a week ago, but on several metrics we aren’t quite there...
I’ll be coming up on @BloombergTV in a few to discuss zooming #oil prices with @lisaabramowicz1 & @FerroTV Can anything be done to bring oil under $100 in the foreseeable future? @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #Iran https://t.co/hJJBdEoPvU
Italy risks Iran setback in a bid to exit EU scrutiny, Scope says https://t.co/fGVWOIJe8n via @CraigStirling https://t.co/7T2WI2wmif
Capital Markets Remain Unsettled with Oil Above $100: The Middle East war continues to dominate the investment environment. The dollar is firm. Equities are lower. Yields are higher. The disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing oil…...
