Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Agricultural markets are closely monitoring the upcoming face‑to‑face meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of March. The talks follow a late‑October summit that produced a trade framework committing China to 25 million metric tons of new‑crop soybeans for 2026‑28, on top of 12 million tons of old‑crop already purchased. Analysts warn that ongoing Middle‑East tensions, particularly Iran’s oil cuts to China, could introduce volatility into the negotiations. Soybean futures have already rallied on expectations of stronger Chinese demand.
Footwear maker Weyco Group, owner of Florsheim, filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking refunds for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The company alleges it paid up to a 145% duty on Chinese imports and...
If you’re wondering how the stock market closed green after oil dropped 30% Here’s what just changed: > President Trump just signaled the war with Iran may be nearing an end > G7 nations are reportedly considering releasing up to 400M barrels from...
On March 9 2009 the S&P 500 closed at a historic low of 676, marking the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis market decline. The National Bureau of Economic Research later confirmed the recession officially ended in June 2009, but did not announce this...
Crude oil futures hovered just below $119 per barrel, easing fears of a supply shock amid heightened Middle‑East tensions. The broader market rebounded, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.4%, the S&P 500 up 0.8% and the Dow rising 0.5% after a volatile...
Anne Applebaum warned that Europe is increasingly hedging against U.S. security and trade dependence as the Russia‑Ukraine war drags into its fifth year. She highlighted the erosion of the post‑World‑II liberal, rules‑based order, noting that terms like “liberal world order”...
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
The outbreak of war involving Iran has triggered a sharp contraction in oil output and transit, pushing global energy prices up by over 15 percent. The surge in energy costs is reigniting inflation expectations worldwide, prompting traders to anticipate more...
I am glad that I have remained patient so far. If you had jumped the bandwagon on oil this morning, you would have been 20% down ish by now. I know the below is not a guarantee, but I stick...
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stalled, with crossings dropping 66% and crude‑oil futures briefly spiking above $115 per barrel. The U.S. responded with a $20 billion maritime reinsurance program aimed at protecting vessels and cargo. The slowdown has...
Weaponise EU market against China or face manufacturing collapse: official think tank EUISS study urges bloc to “preserve and create technological chokepoints”, diversify markets away from China – in both instances mirroring long-term moves made by Beijing – to give it...
EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos urged European firms to invest in candidate countries, citing past enlargement’s boost to exports, supply chains and GDP. She emphasized reforms—independent courts, anti‑corruption, free media—as prerequisites for safe investment. New research from the Confederation of...
Gas prices hovering just above $3 per gallon have acted as a modest tailwind for U.S. consumers, but a rise to $4 per gallon would erase that benefit and return to a neutral stance relative to wages. The economy is...
In the fourth quarter of 2025 U.S. markets extended gains while the margin for error narrowed across policy, valuation and data. Artificial‑intelligence demand remained robust, yet investors grew more selective, emphasizing balance‑sheet strength and near‑term cash flow. The Federal Reserve...
Redfin economists warn that mortgage rates could remain volatile as the Iran‑Israel conflict drives oil prices toward levels last seen during the Ukraine war and fresh inflation data arrives. February core CPI is projected to rise 0.2% month‑over‑month, while the...
The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker projects U.S. container imports will stay below last‑year levels through the first half of 2026 due to lingering tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risk. After the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, the Trump...
Kazakhstan’s President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev has steered a pragmatic foreign policy through the recent wave of missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, opting for neutrality while maintaining diplomatic channels with Iran, Israel, Gulf states and the United States. He...
Brazil’s CAPE ratio is approaching one of the most undervalued levels in its history. The Brazilian equity market is nearly as cheap as it was at major historical bottoms — the early 2000s and the political crisis of 2015–16. This is a...
The United States is forming a critical‑minerals trading bloc aimed at breaking China’s dominance in supply chains for digital and defense technologies. The initiative downplays clean‑energy needs, even though analysis shows only a handful of the 33 minerals the UK...
Former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng warned that the UK may need to introduce tax hikes as early as November to fund energy subsidies amid soaring oil prices and a sudden spike in government bond yields. He likened the current market turbulence...
I've just done a deep dive on how the Polish central bank's gold purchases may have been intended for wartime financing from day one. When you look at promo NBP materials, the dog whistles were pretty brazen in retrospect. That...
How the Iran War Will Kill Oil and Gas O&G now have a competitor: electricity. High prices + volatility encourage consumers to buy check out the competition. Especially in the Global South. Buckle up, Canada. MarkJCarney #cdnpoli #abpoli #bcpoli https://youtu.be/dDbCM-M2UWA
The Iran‑U.S. conflict is spilling into the Gulf, forcing BRICS to confront its first major geopolitical test since the 2024 expansion. While Russia and China back Tehran’s strategic autonomy, India adopts a cautious stance to protect its Chabahar‑linked trade interests....
Israeli officials and U.S. think tanks are warning that Turkey could become a strategic rival comparable to Iran, citing President Erdogan’s authoritarian turn and regional ambitions. The article argues the "new Iran" label is misleading because Turkey lacks Iran’s ideological...
My take on the effect that increasing oil prices have on inflation: "There is a lot of narrative being spun in the newspapers saying that oil price increases will cause inflation. No. It simply means that the price of oil will...
Gold slipped to about $5,015 an ounce on Monday, a 3% intraday drop, before regaining most of the loss, as a stronger U.S. dollar and inflation‑driven rate worries kept investors on the sidelines. Silver, by contrast, rose over 2% to...
China’s investment strategy in Central Asia is moving beyond the debt‑trap stereotype, emphasizing joint ventures and infrastructure that fuel industrial growth. In 2025, Chinese foreign direct investment rose roughly 15% year‑on‑year, with Kazakhstan alone attracting about $12 billion in energy projects....
The Philippine Department of Trade and Industry says ongoing global disruptions – from the Middle East conflict to the US‑China trade war – are creating fresh trade openings for ASEAN. At the pre‑ASEAN Business Environment Forum (ABEF), DTI executive director...
france sending warships to the med/red sea and potentially toward hormuz — framing it as “strictly defensive” and about freedom of navigation. message: europe won’t be (completely) sidelined as us–israel–iran escalation hits shipping lanes and pushes oil toward $100+.
WTI crude oil fell below $90 per barrel after President Donald Trump told CBS that the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” Earlier in the day, WTI had surged to a peak of $119. https://t.co/ElHrOuNRmc
Kevin Muir argues that claims of the business cycle’s demise are overstated, noting that cyclical patterns still shape macroeconomic outcomes. He points to a recent tipping point where labor market slack is eroding, causing unemployment to rise faster than expected....
OUT NOW - Michael Howell @crossbordercap on: - why he expects 2026 to be bad for risk assets - why he's bullish bonds & Chinese stocks - Gold, Bitcoin, & yield curve, and "Turbulence" phase of Liquidity cycle Apple🔊https://t.co/7bjoJLeYdJ Spotify📽️https://t.co/plpNPVQicu https://t.co/1mD9VJPm5e
The oil market thinks Trump just TACO’d (I’m less convinced, but let’s see) A $30 price swing in a day, helped by expectations of a big strategic oil stock release. Such larks. Oil tumbles to $90 as Trump says Iran war...
The Strait of Hormuz closure removed roughly 20 million barrels per day, creating the largest oil shock in history and dwarfing the next five biggest disruptions combined. In the AI arena, Anthropic’s Claude has surged to about 70% of U.S. business...
The oil price isn't one of those things that spirals infinitely up. At current levels near $100, a big risk premium prices the temporary standstill of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. You can bet Trump is working like crazy...
The betting market remains skeptical about the end date to the US-Iran conflict being in sight. Interesting that he is calling it an outright 'war'. Executive branch doesn't have the power to declare war. https://t.co/cUBtf0lV7M
Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel as the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict intensifies, leaving the Strait of Hormuz gridlocked. G7 finance ministers are meeting to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, while the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank...
Italy’s Giorgetti cautions the ECB against the temptation of raising interest rates https://t.co/CasNsOy0KU via @Alemrome https://t.co/z3ATeFnSqp
🆓 Monday links: bottoming on bad news, the K-shaped economy, and the rise of GDP jamming. https://t.co/W6jd47jqkH chart: https://t.co/sRyFpUbgLf https://t.co/oOvSgydCoj
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has propelled its trade with Africa to $348 billion in 2025, a 17.7% jump driven largely by a surge in Chinese exports and massive infrastructure‑focused loans. The initiative recently expanded zero‑tariff market access to all 53...
Surging oil prices have sparked fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could inflict steep financial costs on Americans "I am very concerned this could tip us into a recession if it persists," one economist tells @nytimes https://t.co/VkqGBNMgAR @TonyRomm...
Very good discussion with Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry Ryosei Akazawa @ryosei_akazawa about recent developments in the Middle East and the implications for Japan's energy security We discussed the available options, including a possible @IEA stock release https://t.co/rCnXYDGIHK
Stagflation concerns have pushed volatility risk premiums to record levels across commodities and equities. One‑month implied volatility for crude oil surged to 104%, the highest since 2020 and near 2008 crisis peaks, with the volatility risk premium now almost twice...
Very constructive meeting with India's Minister for Petroleum & Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri @HardeepSPuri We discussed the latest developments in energy markets amid the conflict in the Middle East and the options on the table. We agreed to continue to...
Putin says Russia should take advantage of the sky-high oil prices after US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Russia should redirect supplies to Europe elsewhere, he adds. “If we shift our focus right now to the markets that need more supplies, we might...
Curve shape (white) was completely uncorrelated with level of rates through first week of Iran conflict. That trend changed overnight when 10s peaked ~4.20%. Since then, have seen notable flattening. 1/ https://t.co/zHYcDKsXG6
MOSCOW, March 9 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that the Iran war had triggered a global energy crisis and cautioned that oil production dependent on transport through the Strait of Hormuz could soon come to a...
Why Spain’s Sanchez is standing up to Trump on the Iran war https://t.co/Jq0rQAMH0R via @rorihuela https://t.co/sF1Tq53V7f
Oil tankers transiting Strait of Hormuz ‘must be very careful,’ Iran foreign ministry warns: CNBC $USO $XLE
China Says Opposes Any Targeting of New Iran Leader "China opposes interference in other countries' internal affairs under any pretext, and Iran's sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity should be respected," he said when asked about the threats against the new leader. ...
