Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
India has declined the International Energy Agency’s invitation to tap its strategic oil reserves as a measure to curb soaring crude prices. The country holds about 5.33 million tonnes of underground reserves, roughly 80% of capacity, and reserves them for supply‑disruption emergencies. As G7 nations debate releasing stockpiles amid prices near $120 per barrel, New Delhi emphasizes its “India‑first” policy and lack of binding IEA obligations. Officials also note ample domestic fuel inventories, ruling out any export curbs.
Apple boosted iPhone assembly in India by roughly 53% in 2025, reaching about 55 million units and accounting for a quarter of its global output. The shift helps the company sidestep escalating US tariffs on Chinese‑made devices and diversifies its supply...
The article dissects Iran’s alleged ability to strike a U.S. aircraft carrier, revealing that long‑range anti‑ship missiles depend on airborne reconnaissance and mid‑course guidance rather than autonomous targeting. It explains that carriers operate beyond the radar horizon, can maneuver at...
Supreme Court struck down Trump-era IEEPA tariffs, prompting a flood of refund claims for roughly $175 billion collected. The U.S. Court of International Trade ordered the government to begin issuing refunds, but Customs and Border Protection requested a 45‑day setup period,...
When the United States and other major donors slashed foreign aid in 2025, analysts warned of imminent economic collapse across Africa. Yet recent data show most African economies have maintained or even modestly expanded growth, with Ethiopia posting 4.2% GDP...
The authors argue that governments worldwide are moving toward a form of state capitalism, using export controls, investment‑screening mechanisms, and subsidies to steer corporate behavior toward geopolitical goals. This shift blurs the line between market‑driven decision‑making and political direction, compelling...
In this episode, Michelle Martin and Ryan Huang dissect the market fallout from the Iran conflict, highlighting President Trump's mixed signals that have driven oil volatility and raised the odds of a U.S. market melt‑down to 35% according to strategist...
China’s exports jumped 21.8% in the first two months of 2026, marking the strongest bi‑monthly increase in four years. The surge was powered by heightened demand from ASEAN, the European Union and other key markets, while U.S. exports to China...
I enjoy very much how economists analyze: Oil is up $50. India imports 5 million per day. This is US$ 250 m extra per day or US$ 7.5 billion per month. How will India make up for annual US$ 90 billion...
The U.S. dollar slipped after President Donald Trump declared the Iran conflict "very complete," prompting a sharp retreat in oil prices. Brent crude fell to $92.46 a barrel, down from Monday's $120 peak, easing pressure on risk‑sensitive currencies such as...
“Trump saying the Iran war will be over very soon is hardly the reassurance that will get tankers sailing normally again in and out of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Vandana Hari, founder of analysis firm Vanda Insights. Investors could...
Japan’s October‑December GDP was revised up to an annualised 1.3 percent, reversing two quarters of contraction. The upgrade reflects stronger business investment, with capital spending rising 1.3 percent, and a modest lift in private consumption of 0.3 percent. Nominal GDP also jumped to...
Victoria’s 2025‑26 Mid‑Year Financial Report shows net debt jumping $10 bn to $160.9 bn, lifting the debt‑to‑GDP ratio to 24.2%. Interest costs surged to $3.8 bn, equating to roughly $1 million per hour in repayments. While tax revenue rose $2.1 bn, employee expenses climbed $1 bn,...
JUST IN: Classic turning the tables. Now Iran will be the bad guy for doing anything that hinders oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude is trading Tuesday morning as if the war is over. The proof will be in...
China’s Exports Surge in First Two Months of Year—Trade surplus stood at $213.62 billion for the period https://t.co/siI2mnkBZ1 https://t.co/siI2mnkBZ1
Senator Ralph Babet warns that Australia’s government spending per person has been rising at roughly twice the rate of tax collection, creating a widening fiscal gap. Decades of overspending have turned a once debt‑free nation into one where every citizen...
March 9 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's administration is considering reducing oil sanctions on Russia to help cool a surge in global energy prices triggered by the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran... according to three sources familiar with the...
FT op-ed: “China’s growth target is a global problem…The target is not based in economics. It’s a political goal…Pursuing that aim, Beijing has been overinvesting for years, but lately it has been dumping the excess output it can’t sell at...
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are pushing energy prices higher, threatening the profit margins of Thailand's consumer‑goods conglomerate Osotspa Plc. Energy accounts for roughly 20% of the company's costs, and a rise in LNG to $140‑150 per unit could...
“China could have held these vessels at port, imposed an administrative delay, invented a customs hold – any number of bureaucratic tools, but didn’t,” he said, calling the decision notable at a time when the United States and Iran are engaged...
Wall Street has inflation as measured by the CPI running sideways in February and holding near the lowest 12-month rates in five years* *at least until April, when the data collection/imputation distortions from the Oct govt shutdown could fully unwind...
A sudden escalation in the Middle East has driven crude oil prices up nearly 40% in a week, pushing barrel prices toward $150 and sending jet‑fuel costs soaring. Fuel, the airline industry's largest variable expense, is now testing the resilience...
Crude oil shot up toward $120/bbl, then plunged back below $90/bbl, swinging stocks, bonds, gold, and the dollar along the way. Is the market meltdown really over? #USIranWar #crudeoil #stockmarket #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/9oO6NbDLq3
Australia’s labour‑productivity growth has slipped to the bottom of the advanced‑economy rankings over the past decade, as shown by Antipodean Macro’s chart. A long‑term “capital shallowing” effect—immigration outpacing business, infrastructure and housing investment—has already constrained output per hour. More recently,...
Senator Mark Kelly blasted President Donald Trump and White House adviser Hegseth, calling the U.S. response to the Iran conflict "amateur hour." The war, now in its second week, has produced nearly 2,000 deaths in the region, including seven American...
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a roughly hour‑long phone call, their first since the Iran‑Russia conflict escalated. The leaders discussed proposals to end the war in Iran and linked those efforts to a potential resolution of...
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) says foreign investors will likely return once geopolitical tensions ease, positioning Thailand as a regional safe‑haven. Since the Middle East conflict, the SET index fell about 10.5% but remains 8.5% higher year‑to‑date, keeping Thailand...
The Australian dollar surged after the G7 abruptly abandoned its pledge to release strategic petroleum reserves, sending the US dollar index (DXY) tumbling and pushing Brent crude sharply lower. The policy reversal erased the AUD’s recent losses against the US...
Caretaker finance minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas warned that Thailand’s soaring oil prices, now above $100 per barrel, present a pivotal chance to reshape the economy. He highlighted a 60% jump in BOI‑registered projects to 1.8 trillion baht, reflecting a wave of investors...
*WTI OIL DROPS AS MUCH AS 10% TO $85.52/BBL AT START OF [Tuesday] TRADING *TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR WILL END 'SOON' BUT NOT THIS WEEK Not to be callous ... but the market really cares about oil tankers moving through the Strait...
Australia is confronting a three‑pronged energy price surge, with petrol and diesel now topping $2 per litre in most capital cities. Gas and electricity costs are also climbing, adding pressure to household and business budgets. The spike follows a sharp...
War might end “soon” - Trump. Oil price menjunam semula bawah $100. According to Bloomberg: “…mounting economic and political pressures..” Question is - can we believe him?
President Trump just finished speaking on the Iran situation now. Here is a summary of his key comments. He says the war will end very soon (but not this week) and he is disappointed by the new supreme leader's appointment. Oil...
Australian gas prices plunged in the first quarter of 2026, driving wholesale electricity costs down from an average $116 M/h to $60 M/h. The lower power component is projected to shave roughly 20% off residential and commercial utility bills, with the regulated...
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp rise in global natural‑gas prices, except in North America, which remains insulated by abundant domestic supply. The disruption forced several LNG carriers originally bound for Europe to reroute...
Chinese steel exporters are confronting steep anti‑dumping duties in Brazil, ranging from $285 to $710 per tonne, which could render Chinese imports unviable for up to five years. The duties target pre‑painted, cold‑rolled, and coated steel, prompting Chinese firms to...
Carney’s Early Iran Misstep — Time to Reset Stick with this interview. It's long, complex, and not always easy to understand, but at the end of it I felt like I understood the dilemma facing MarkJCarney and Canada over Iran...
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have pushed crude oil into the mid‑$70‑per‑barrel range, sending the national average gasoline price up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. Analysts warn the pump price could climb to $3.50‑$3.70 soon and possibly breach...
The geopolitical rollercoaster that is 2026 continues and is impacting global oil prices. #canada🇨🇦 #canada #trade #energy
U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks that the conflict with Iran is “very complete” sent oil markets tumbling. Crude futures dropped about 6.9%, settling at $84.62 a barrel, the steepest decline in weeks. Trump claimed U.S. forces had neutralized Iranian naval...
As I noted in this thread, no oil infrastructure was damaged. This was all about waiting for a resolution to gets the ships moving again. Looks like that happened and the market is pricing in the end of the war. Headlines * TRUMP...
"...or we could go further... and we're going to go further." Crude oil up, dollar up, stock index futures down. 🎢
Former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman warned that presidential tariffs are endangering key export markets, especially for soybeans. He highlighted that U.S. agriculture relies heavily on overseas sales and that recent tariff measures have squeezed demand and farmgate prices....
Sen Lindsey Graham promises US will gain oil/money from Iran war: "We are going to make a ton of money... Venezuela and Iran have 31% of the world’s oil reserves. We’re going to have a partnership with 31% of the...
Unclear whether President Trump referred to the already announced easing of Russian oil sanctions for India, or something new. In any case, this is what he said: "We have sanctions on some countries. We're going to take those sanctions off till...
Is it feasible that Maduro was taken off the board to use Venezuela as some sort of insurance policy against attacking Iran leading to tighter oil supply or is that silly
Shutting down Hormuz the first time is like withdrawing from a golf tournament the first time. The second time becomes soooo much easier and will happen with much less provocation.
President Trump’s push for “America’s Maritime Dominance” aims to break China’s grip on global shipbuilding. But shipyards are only one piece of maritime power. Th real contest runs through chokepoints, naval force, commercial fleets, and the insurance and financial systems...
Whether these arguments from the Iranian Foreign Minister are sincere or not, Iranian leaders seem to understand U.S. politics far better than American leaders understand Iranian politics.
"The Slow Climb: How Tariffs Gradually Raised Retail Prices in 2025" via @federalreserve https://t.co/HJiDIY3j8v "consumers are in fact paying higher retail prices because of tariffs" 😮 https://t.co/SbgM6kbcPA
