Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
U.S. President Donald Trump is set to make his first China visit in a decade, prompting Chinese scholars to argue the relationship can move from confrontation toward managed coexistence. At a University of Hong Kong seminar, experts highlighted a "relative stability" that contrasts with the crisis‑driven cycles of previous administrations. They attribute this shift to Washington's strategic retrenchment, which they say ended the post‑World War II liberal order. The dialogue suggests the old "love‑and‑hate" partnership is giving way to a more nationalist, less hyper‑globalized dynamic.
Home retailers are bracing for a 2026 that mirrors the weak 2025, as year‑over‑year sales continue to fall and the sector was the only category to decline in January’s retail report. The slowdown is tied to a stagnant housing market,...
U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III highlighted that more than 500 American companies operate in South Africa, collectively employing around 250,000 people. He emphasized the strong presence of tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Google and Visa, which...
Canadian canola exports are heavily dependent on the United States, with 78% of oil shipments projected for 2025 and 66% of meal exports in 2024. The joint review of the Canada‑U.S‑Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) begins July 1, and the U.S. is conducting...
Oil reversal. Stocks mixed. Gold up slightly. Dollar easing. Know what that means? Nobody knows what to believe right now Iran is hitting back, geopolitics are getting worse, but Trump says there's an off-ramp and the war ends soon Mixed signals everywhere....
India announced a tariff concession for U.S. dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) used in animal feed, but only within a capped quota similar to existing tariff‑rate quotas for commodities like corn. Union Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh emphasized that the...
The piece contends that Trump‑era tariffs have slashed the U.S. trade deficit with China, delivering a 32% drop and pushing the deficit to its lowest level in 21 years. China’s share of U.S. imports fell from 13% to 7% within...
President Donald Trump’s recent comments on the Middle‑East conflict acted as a catalyst for a broad market rally, lifting equities across the Pacific Rim, Europe and parts of Asia while U.S. futures slipped. His optimism drove oil prices down 24%...
The EU‑India Free Trade Agreement, covering €136 billion in trade and promising €4 billion in annual tariff savings, pivots from volume‑driven commerce to a circular framework. It grants India preferential access for textiles, footwear and other labour‑intensive goods while opening EU markets...
Britain announced it is collaborating with Italy and Germany to develop options that safeguard commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating Iranian threats. The three leaders reaffirmed the vital importance of freedom of navigation and pledged close cooperation...
The Iran‑Israel war has triggered Tehran to ban all goods and agricultural exports, instantly inflating prices in neighboring Turkmenistan. Mandarins, apples and cigarettes have roughly doubled, squeezing pensioners and low‑income consumers. Central Asian economies, which depend on Iranian transit corridors...
President Donald Trump’s claim that the U.S.–Israel‑Iran war will end soon helped reverse a sharp oil rally, pulling Brent crude down more than 7% to around $92 a barrel. Iran vowed to halt all Gulf oil exports, while attacks on...
The Indian government has asked Parliament to approve a net extra spending of roughly ₹2 trillion for FY26, representing just under 0.6% of nominal GDP. The additional outlay is driven by heightened food and fertilizer subsidies, increased defence revenue expenditure, and...
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged faster enlargement, calling it an antidote to Russian aggression. Member states remain cautious, fearing that admitting poorer, less democratic candidates could erode unanimity‑based decision‑making. Brussels is debating a two‑tier EU where new members...
The war in Iran is already causing shipping congestion, trade rerouting and higher fuel prices, prompting urgent discussion at the Capital Link International Shipping Forum. Panelists warned that liner freight rates could stay elevated longer than anticipated, and that if...
Global markets rallied as Saudi Aramco activated the East‑West pipeline, restoring roughly 70% of its crude exports—about 5 million barrels per day—despite Gulf shipping disruptions. The move eased fears of a major oil supply shock, keeping WTI near $90 and lifting...
Qatar announced it will deepen its defence partnership with the United States after Iran launched missile and drone attacks that struck the Al Udeid Air Base, the largest U.S. military installation in the Gulf. The Qatari foreign‑ministry spokesperson emphasized that existing...
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that Tuesday will see the most intense day of strikes against Iran in the ongoing campaign. He said the operation will involve the highest number of fighter jets and bombers deployed to date. The...
The United States has begun striking Iranian vessels that are laying naval mines, according to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine. In the first ten days of the campaign, U.S. forces have sunk or destroyed more than 50...
The EU’s foreign policy still splinters across three institutional presidents, leaving no single voice on the global stage. Recent strikes on Iranian targets highlighted divergent statements from leaders like Macron, Merz and Sánchez, underscoring the coordination gap. The Treaty of...
The U.S. Senate introduced the Securing Accountability in Foreign Entries Act, tightening importer‑of‑record rules by requiring a genuine physical U.S. presence and verified bank accounts. The legislation also raises the minimum continuous import bond to $100,000. By targeting non‑resident importers,...
Ed Perks, a 40‑year veteran of Franklin Templeton, serves as CIO of Franklin Income Investors and president of its advisory arm. He credits early cross‑asset roles—from equity research to convertible securities—in shaping a disciplined, risk‑focused income philosophy. Perks emphasizes evaluating...
Tin prices surged to a projected $54,925 per ton for the week of March 9‑14 2026, according to the DRC’s National Market Commission, while Boursorama data on March 10 showed a daily dip to $48,275 per ton, underscoring sharp volatility. The metal’s small...
The DHL Global Connectedness report shows that global supply chains are stretching, with 2025 average trade distances reaching a record 5,010 km and greenfield foreign‑direct investment averaging 6,250 km. Despite geopolitical tensions and near‑shoring rhetoric, companies are still diversifying globally, routing trade...
The Mexican Economy Ministry and the U.S. Trade Representative announced the formal launch of the joint review of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement, set to begin on March 16. While Mexico and the United States have been holding informal talks for...
A new working paper reveals that India’s GDP figures have been systematically misestimated over the past two decades. Growth from 2005 to 2011 was likely understated by roughly 1–1.5 percentage points, while the 2012‑2023 period appears overstated by about 1.5‑2...
Raghuram Rajan argues that India’s service‑led growth model—built on software, consulting and urban services—remains resilient despite AI’s rise. He explains how services have become embedded in tradable goods, turning back‑office functions into Global Capability Centres that command a strong cost...
Recent surveys reveal a majority of fund managers believe US technology companies are overinvesting in artificial intelligence. Analysts point to soaring R&D budgets and hiring spikes that outpace clear revenue prospects. The sentiment reflects growing skepticism that AI hype translates...
Oil prices surged past the $100‑a‑barrel benchmark over the weekend as tensions escalated in Iran, prompting panic across markets. G7 nations quickly pledged to tap strategic reserves and President Trump’s reassurance helped pull prices back, allowing major indexes to close...
The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has revised its UK economic outlook, cutting 2026 GDP growth to 1% and flagging higher inflation and unemployment due to the escalating Iran conflict. Inflation is projected to rise to 2.7% before easing to...
Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel before reversing sharply, marking what analysts call the most epic price reversal in oil history. The swing was driven by mixed signals about the U.S.–Iran conflict, including President Trump's comments and hopes of...
On March 10, 2026, the United States designated Afghanistan as a “state sponsor of wrongful detention,” demanding the release of two American citizens, Mahmood Habibi and Dennis Coyle. Afghan Taliban officials condemned the move as regrettable and urged a diplomatic solution through...
The On The Market podcast highlighted how the emerging Iran‑Russia conflict is injecting fresh uncertainty into the U.S. housing market, prompting buyers and sellers to pause amid rising oil prices and potential rate hikes. Transaction volume has slipped to under...
Denis Beau highlighted that France and the euro area have remained surprisingly resilient despite a cascade of shocks, including the Covid‑19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and heightened trade tensions. Inflation has dropped sharply, reaching 1.7 % in January and nearing...
Michele Bullock, the Reserve Bank of Australia governor, outlined why the Board unanimously raised the cash rate in February. She highlighted that inflationary pressures have intensified since mid‑2022, driven by capacity constraints and a still‑tight labour market. Underlying price growth...
Sarah Hunter, speaking at a Norway conference, outlined the outcomes of the 2022‑23 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) review and the subsequent refinements to its dual mandate. The review praised three decades of strong economic performance under flexible inflation targeting...
The recent missile and drone attacks in the Strait of Hormuz exposed a stark visibility divide in maritime logistics. While insurers pulled war‑risk coverage and AIS signals were jammed, some operators leveraged digital twins and scenario modelling to reroute traffic...
BlackRock chief global investment strategist Wei Li argued that the market’s reaction to the Iran war illustrates enduring financial principles rather than a blanket risk‑off shift. Oil prices surged roughly 8% as the conflict escalated, pushing U.S. Treasury yields up...
As the US-Iran war goes on, focus on oil flow and not on oil production: What matters now is exports ex Strait of Hormuz, not well head output in KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Iraq. Yes, later is deteriorating, but former...
It is hard not to see K-Shaped consequences to the events in Iran, as those at the bottom around the global disproportionately experience the real time impacts of food and energy inflation.
"In the Pew Research Center’s latest survey, just 28 percent of U.S. adults rate economic conditions as excellent or good, while 72 percent say they are only fair or poor."
We're in a goldilocks environment for EM commodity exporters like Brazil and South Africa. Brent has fallen significantly, which is good for risk appetite. But it's still 20% above where it was before hostilities. That's good for EM commodity exporters......
Trump yesterday said war will be over soon. Oil tumbled. As I signaled over the weekend, better to steer clear of the frenzy around oil and focus on EM differentiation. That theme's only been traded for a few days and...
$WTI hit $111 intraday. Pulled back to $97. Still up 70%+ YTD. Markets priced in a ceasefire that hasn't happened. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Unpopular opinion: the high for oil is not in yet. https://t.co/Ag4wJnGVhR
Oil bypass pipelines buy time, but don't solve the problem. SPR/IEA release would buy more time, but doesn't solve either. Ultimately, only one thing solves the problem: re-open the Strait of Hormuz. But rather than hitting the wall this...
As strikes shake the Middle East and oil prices soar, what are the global ramifications of the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran? 🎥 Tune in LIVE as @TimOBrien discusses with @JavierBlas and @MarcChampion1 Tuesday, March 10 @ 8:30 am EDT...
Trump threatens ‘Death, Fire and Fury’ if Iran closes Strait of Hormuz The US President claims the war on Iran is "very complete" but also hasn’t ruled out taking over the Strait https://t.co/xy4DfQoYYm
As Trump has been screaming into the void about acquiring Greenland, the wheels over in #Iceland and #Norway are starting to turn. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/wGaex4mPph #eu #europeanunion #geopolitics https://t.co/7SEnZinGjq
U.S.-bound retail container import volumes are expected to see annual declines over the first half of the year, due to ongoing tariff-driven uncertainty & potentially the Iran conflict according to the latest Global Port Tracker report. https://t.co/hASNRjFabC
The shock is coming from the United States, whose actions continually raise of the cost of living / cost of business for Europe. It should be no surprise that this results in increased imports from a supplier who offers cost...
