Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Former President of Costa Rica on De-Risking Fertilizer Shocks: How $700 Billion in Subsidies Can Do More
In 2022 the Ukraine war sent fertilizer prices soaring, and renewed Middle‑East conflicts have again pushed natural‑gas‑linked nitrogen fertilizer costs up about 40%, threatening food security. Governments worldwide spend roughly $700 billion each year on agricultural subsidies, yet only 35 cents of real value reach farmers for every dollar spent, and 87 % of those subsidies are environmentally harmful. The article argues that this massive pool of public money could be redirected toward soil‑health technologies, precision nutrient management, and climate‑resilient practices, protecting over 500 million smallholder farmers. With three major COPs slated for 2026, policymakers have a narrow window to reshape subsidies into climate‑smart investments.
Fed Prioritizes Blame Avoidance Over True Price Stability
Fed watchers treat every print like it’s gospel. Newsflash: the Fed is a political institution wearing an economist costume. If you think they’re optimizing for “price stability” you haven’t been paying attention. They optimize for avoiding blame. That’s why policy lags reality… and why...
Three Scenarios for the USMCA’s Review—And Why Auto Manufacturers Should Prepare Now
The United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) faces its mandatory review this July, forcing auto makers to anticipate possible changes to tariff and content rules. The deal currently mandates 75% regional content, a 40‑45% labor‑value threshold and a $16‑per‑hour wage floor, but...
Rubio: Iran Won’t Control Access to Hormuz Strait
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Hormuz: “If what they mean by opening the straits is, ‘yes, the straits are opened, as long as you coordinate with Iran, get our permission, or we will blow you up and you...
Canada's $25bn Fund Ranks 53rd Globally
Would make it the 53rd largest sovereign wealth fund behind Poland's PFR - a small sum from Canada, which is the 11th largest country by GDP.
A Trade Row ‘Made in Europe’
The EU Commission’s Industrial Accelerator Act introduces a “Made in Europe” rule that ties public funding in strategic sectors to a minimum share of European‑origin parts. The provision, aimed at reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, effectively forces Chinese electric‑vehicle and...
Europe Faces $32 B Extra Energy Costs From US‑Israel War
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, European countries have been forced to pay $32 BILLION MORE for oil and gas imports, according to the European Commission US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/KypyJy56DS
U.S. Seeks Eritrea Ties for Red Sea Strategic Foothold
According to the WSJ, the US is looking to re-engage with Eritrea, a FAILED STATE that borders the Red Sea. This is all about gaining a footprint on the Red Sea shipping routes and the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint. IT HAS NOTHING TO...
Gold Slumps As U.S.-Iran Standoff Continues, Strait Of Hormuz Remains Closed
Gold prices plunged on Monday, with front‑month June Comex gold sliding $54.10 to $4,686.80 an ounce, while silver fell 1.74% to $75.35. The decline follows a stalled U.S.–Iran peace process and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which...
Commodities Surge to New Inflation Cycle Highs
Long Commodities, as an Asset Class, is punching out new Inflation Cycle Highs today https://t.co/b3IHwlmsy8
Hormuz Closure Would Upend Global Finance and Economics
If they pull this off with the Strait of Hormuz closed for say 3+ months you can throw out everything you know about finance/economics https://t.co/nPZzQHiw9o
Live Updates: Oil Prices Rise
Iran has signaled willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping if the United States ends its military blockade of Iranian ports and vessels. The proposal offers no concessions on Tehran’s nuclear program, which President Trump insists must...
Stablecoins Could Slash $60 B Remittance Fees
An estimated $60 billion was spent on remittance fees in 2025. This could be almost zero with stablecoins.
Fed Banks' Deferred Losses Could Delay Treasury Payments Past 2030
Great note from @billnelson2x2. Each Fed bank has its own deferred asset, a cumulative sum of its losses. It has to be repaid before remittances can be sent to Treasury. Some Fed banks will be paying them off long past...
Caspian and Central Asian Oil Markets Recalibrate Amid Trade Shifts
At the second Caspian and Central Asia Oil Trading and Logistics Forum in Baku, producers and traders highlighted a pivot toward flexible, short‑term trading as Asian refiners dominate demand. Long‑standing pipeline routes remain vital, but participants are exploring alternative corridors,...
Fertilizer Price Spike Fuels US Farmer Bankruptcies, Calls for Lawsuits
US farmers' bankruptcies are SKYROCKETING. The US-Israeli war on Iran has caused prices of fertilizer to SOAR during the spring planting season. US FARMERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/nMexGTOEtY
War‑driven Urea Loss Fuels Food Price Surge
Wars are inflationary... Urea output lost translates to higher food prices. And this is even before factoring in the full impact of rising fertilizer and plastics prices.
The Global Week Ahead
The week of April 26‑May 3 2026 will see the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada all convene on monetary policy, with market consensus pointing to a pause on rate changes. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts...
Germany’s Output Fell; Economy Can’t Ignore 7‑10% Oil Loss
A chart that discredits two current common views at once: 1. "Germany output didn't suffer during the 2022 oil/energy shock." 2. "The global economy can do just fine without 7-10% of its oil supplies indefinitely." https://t.co/ghhZPrhApE
Dalio Warns Warsh's Fed Appointment Would Risk Premature Rate Cuts
Ray Dalio thinks “it would be a mistake” if Kevin Warsh comes to the Fed and tries to cut rates now https://t.co/WruNFHVCli
Daybreak April 27: Greer Recuses Self From Phosphate Decision
USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer has formally recused himself from any deliberations on countervailing duties targeting Russian and Moroccan phosphate fertilizers, citing conflict‑of‑interest rules. The move comes as the USDA and USTR are at odds over whether to maintain those duties...
Iran Conflict Drains U.S. $2 B Daily, Hits Trillion
Wars are inflationary... The war in Iran costs America two billion dollars each day, says war budgeting expert Linda Bilmes—and will cost at least one trillion overall. https://t.co/ThflbSxlHF
Swiss Central Bank’s $1T Balance Sheet Fuels Market Power
Interesting article on some of the implications of the Swiss National Bank's massive balance sheet (worth roughly $1 trillion, mostly due to years of FX interventions) https://t.co/fUDrbynA3y
Confronting the Past and Present, Lessons From Chornobyl
On the 40th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, Valeriy Chaly warns that the world has not internalized its lessons. He highlights Russia’s use of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as a strategic weapon, citing 14 blackouts in early 2026...
US Oil and Gas Exports Surge, Europe Leads Demand
US oil and gas exports are booming, especially in Europe. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/W3YGHCpF3J
Growth Slowdown, Not Inflation, Will Be the Next Shock
Contrarian take: the next shock won’t be inflation. It’ll be growth rolling over while everyone’s still fighting ghosts.
US and EU Sign Critical Minerals Pact to Cut China Dependence
The United States and the European Union signed a memorandum of understanding on April 27, 2026 to jointly secure critical mineral supplies and reduce reliance on China. The deal covers the full supply chain—from exploration to recycling—and sets up coordinated...
Dollar Drops 10% Post‑tariffs; Another Currency Soars
The US dollar is down 10% since the US began employing tariffs... what currency rise?
How the 160–220% Anode Tariff Died in 8 Months
In February 2026 the U.S. Department of Commerce recommended antidumping and countervailing duties that would have pushed effective tariffs on Chinese active anode material to 160‑220%, but the U.S. International Trade Commission voted 2‑1 on March 12 to reject those...
Why Chinese Steel Imports Threaten Mexican Manufacturing Jobs
China’s steel sector is awash with excess capacity after a construction slowdown, prompting a flood of low‑priced steel into global markets. In 2025 China produced roughly 960 million tonnes of crude steel, dwarfing Latin America’s 55.5 million tonnes. Mexican officials warn that...
Iran-Israel Conflict Boosts Used EV Demand in Vietnam and Southeast Asia
The outbreak of hostilities between the United States, Israel and Iran has sparked a sharp rise in demand for second‑hand electric vehicles in Vietnam and other emerging Asian economies. Prices for used EVs in the $20,000‑$50,000 bracket have jumped 10‑20%,...
Asian Currencies Split as US‑Iran Tensions Heighten, Ringgit Up 12% While Rupee Slides 5%
As the United States faces a May 1 deadline to secure congressional approval for continued operations against Iran, Asian FX markets have fractured. The Malaysian ringgit, Chinese yuan and Singapore dollar posted double‑digit gains, while the Indian rupee, Japanese yen...
IMF, Knight Frank and S&P Praise Australia’s Economic Resilience and Fiscal Discipline
The International Monetary Fund, property consultancy Knight Frank and rating agency S&P have all highlighted Australia’s robust fiscal management and growing wealth. The IMF placed Australia among the G20’s three strongest budget balances, while Knight Frank forecasts a 60% rise...
Nations Meet to Discuss Fossil Fuel Exit as Iran War Drives up Prices
Around 60 governments met in Santa Marta, Colombia to discuss practical steps for phasing out fossil fuels as the Iran war drives up energy prices. The summit, co‑organized by the Netherlands and Colombia, will focus on financial instruments, regulatory incentives,...
EU Faces ‘China Shock’ as EV Imports Drive Beijing’s Record Surplus with Bloc
The EU recorded a record $83 bn trade surplus with China in Q1 2026, driven by a surge in Chinese electric‑vehicle imports that doubled to $20.6 bn. Chinese EVs now account for about one‑third of China’s vehicle exports and represent 42% of...
Supreme Court Refunds Blocked; Trump Tariffs Act as Sales Tax
The New York Times reports that American consumers will not receive a dime of Pres. Trump's tariffs refunds, which were ordered by the Supreme Court. TRUMP'S TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICAN CONSUMERS. https://t.co/PQicw18r53
Hormuz Closure Sparks Unpriced Supply Shock, Markets Stagnant
the Hormuz has been closed for 58 days with no end in sight, and even if there was one, it would take 6 months to clear the mines while insurance companies stay risk-off. Supply shocks are still not priced in....
From Market Access to Investment: Europe’s Expanding Role in Pakistan
Pakistan is gearing up for the EU‑Pakistan Business Forum amid strained economic fundamentals, seeking to transform its long‑standing trade‑centric relationship with the European Union into a deeper investment partnership. The EU remains Pakistan's largest export destination, accounting for roughly 27.6%...
AI‑driven Growth Outpaces Bond Market Optimism
Thrilled to have @BasilHalperin join the podcast. Three big points discussed: (1) AI could supercharge growth, but bond markets aren’t buying the hype as evidence by real interest rates; (2) inflation targeting not an optimal response to AI supercharged growth......
Tariffs, AI, and Geopolitics Spark US Manufacturing Reshoring
Featured article (Winter 2026 | pp. 27–30): Rebuilding Industrial Manufacturing in the U.S. Tariffs + AI + geopolitical risk are fueling a resurgence - and changing where and how manufacturing scales. https://t.co/8ihmbEjXfb #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #AI #Reshoring https://t.co/CYVRErAudu
Oil Rises Amid Fears of a Prolonged Stalemate in Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices climbed on Monday as U.S.-Iran negotiations stalled, with Brent crude trading above $107 a barrel and WTI at $95.76. Iran’s foreign minister offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its naval blockade...
Yield‑Yen Trade‑off Fuels Accelerating Inflation Pressure
Yields and yen are most important here. Policymakers have been suppressing 5% US 30yr and 160 USDJPY at the cost of increasing inflation. Inflation pressures are now boiling at a faster rate and will force policymakers to choose one or...
Thailand Revives Landbridge Project
Thailand’s government is fast‑tracking a Baht 1 trillion ($31 bn) rail landbridge linking new deep‑water ports in Ranong and Chumphon. The 90‑km line aims to provide a shortcut between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, shaving roughly four days off container voyages and cutting...
India's Fertilizer Subsidy May Jump 20% as Hormuz Crisis Spikes Prices
India’s fertilizer subsidy bill is projected to jump about 20%, reaching roughly $22 billion in FY26, as the Hormuz Strait blockade pushes global nutrient prices higher. The government says retail fertilizer prices will stay unchanged despite urea costs nearly doubling. To...
US-China Export Controls: The Choke Point Equilibrium
The United States and China are building parallel technology ecosystems, each leveraging distinct choke points in the global supply chain. Washington dominates upstream intangibles such as chip design software and advanced lithography, while Beijing controls downstream tangibles like rare earths...
Dollar System Stays Strong Despite Waning US Empire
The US empire may be weakening, but the dollar system is not Eurodollars are offshore credit money. Petrodollars are oil-trade recycling. Confusing them leads to major misunderstanding The dollar may not always dominate but it is getting stronger for now https://t.co/gb9CDsInFw
Tech Balkanization Accelerates Amid US‑China Power Struggles
US forced China to sell TikTok. China stops acquisition of Manus. Strategic tech warfare. Balkanization of tech continues.
Hormuz Re-Opening Odds and Brent June Futures
The Kalshi prediction market indicates a roughly 45% probability that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened by July 1, while Brent June futures have risen about 2% as the perceived supply risk diminishes. The chart, dated April 27, shows the probability...
Trump Highlights Ascension Island's Role in Falklands Victory
In my latest piece for The Blind Spot, I explore how Donald Trump may be seeking to remind Britain just how pivotal US-backed access to Ascension Island was to its ability to retake the Falklands. And what really underpins the...
Mali Ranks Surprisingly Happy Amid Misery, Security Threatens
Out of 178 countries on Hanke's 2025 Misery Index, Mali ranks as the 26th happiest on Earth. Low bank lending rates, unemployment, inflation, and moderate GDP/ capita growth explain it. But recent al-Qaeda-linked attacks, the largest since 2012, could throw that into...