Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
Australia's consumer price index slowed to a 4.2% annual increase in April, below the 4.4% forecast, driven by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. However, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its inflation target.
Why Britain Is so Poor – and Will Get Poorer
The article warns that Britain’s balance of payments deficit is set to widen dramatically, with the IMF forecasting a shortfall of about £115 billion (roughly $146 billion) in 2026. It draws a parallel to the 1976 sterling crisis, noting that today’s deficit is deeper because the UK no longer produces enough to fund its consumption of fuel, food and other essentials. The pound’s recent 16% devaluation and the fact that 40% of British firms and a third of government debt are foreign‑owned illustrate the erosion of economic sovereignty. The author argues that only a renewed focus on domestic production, not just green investment, can restore balance and protect households from rising import‑driven inflation.
China’s Responsible‑great‑power Narrative Sways Southeast Asian Elites
Drawing contrasts with the US has been at the heart of China's strategy of winning hearts and minds. But that contrast isn't really about who's more dominant but about who is the "responsible great power." The target has mainly been the...
Oil Returns as a Problem
For the past two weeks sell‑side analysts have largely gone silent on oil, with few new research notes or market commentary. The silence reflects a shift toward unwinding existing oil positions rather than generating fresh investment ideas. This retreat suggests...
Escrow and Russian Oil Super-Profits: Revisiting an Old Sanctions Tool
Russia is raking in super‑profits as oil prices hover around $100 per barrel, far above the $44.10 price‑cap intended to curb its war financing. Recent designations of Lukoil and Rosneft have done little to stop Moscow’s earnings, and European attempts...
U.S. LNG Faces Limits Replacing Lost Qatari Supply
U.S. LNG exporters have temporarily filled the gap left by Qatar’s shutdown, pushing U.S. shipments up 28% year‑over‑year to a record 32.15 million tonnes between January and April. Despite this surge, U.S. plants face maintenance schedules and the upcoming hurricane season,...
Is the Shadow Fleet Rallying ‘Round the Russian Flag?
Russia’s shadow fleet, responsible for moving roughly 70% of its seaborne crude and generating about $85 bn a year, remains a critical revenue source amid Western sanctions. After intense U.S. and EU boardings, a notable portion of the fleet re‑registered under...
Carney Announces $25 Billion "Canada Strong Fund"
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a $25 billion Canadian sovereign wealth vehicle, the Canada Strong Fund, a day before the Liberal spring economic update. The fund will draw on surplus government reserves and invest in equities, bonds and strategic projects, managed...
Oil Keeps Rising as Iran War Standoff Continues
Oil prices kept climbing on Monday, with Brent crude settling above $108 a barrel for the sixth straight session as the Iran‑U.S. standoff deepened. Tehran signaled it would cease obstructing the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifts its naval blockade,...
How Asia-Pacific Is Fighting a Fuel Shock that Could Get Worse
Asian economies are scrambling to blunt a fuel shock triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict that has largely shut the Strait of Hormuz. Governments have deployed subsidies, export curbs and work‑from‑home mandates while hunting alternative oil and gas sources,...
U.S.-Iran Talks at Impasse over Nuclear Program and Strait of Hormuz
The United States and Iran have reached an impasse as Tehran proposes to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting sanctions, unfreezing assets, and pausing nuclear talks. Washington, however, demands a permanent dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program and...
Taking the Three Seas Initiative to the Next Level
The Three Seas Initiative, now a 13‑nation coalition covering the Baltic, Black and Adriatic seas, has built an investment fund that posts roughly 15% annual returns but still operates without a permanent bureaucracy. With a combined GDP of over $3 trillion...
Why Experts Say Trade Wins Aren’t Enough for Xi-Trump Summit in May
The Xi‑Trump summit slated for mid‑May is positioned as a chance to steady U.S.–China ties through trade, yet former diplomats and business leaders stress the need to move beyond commerce. They call for dialogue on healthcare, climate change, AI governance...
Donald Trump’s Lose-Lose Negotiations with Iran
President Donald Trump scrapped a planned Islamabad delegation, leaving U.S. and Iranian negotiators stuck in a deadlock over the Iran‑U.S. war. Tehran’s oil sales to China give it a two‑to‑three‑month cushion, but the U.S. blockade and a fragile cease‑fire keep...
Bab Al-Mandeb Oil Traffic Halves After Houthi Attacks
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a strategic waterway just 30km wide and about 100km long, connnecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. As such, it is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the...
Mexico Trade Balance Swings to $6bn Surplus in March
Mexico’s trade balance swung to a $5.93 bn surplus in March, reversing a $463 mn deficit in February and far outpacing the $1.03 bn forecast. The surge was driven by a jump in non‑oil exports to $8.32 bn, while manufacturing shipments rose 25% to...
Facing Risks, Stocks Have Stayed Resilient. Too Resilient?
Global equity markets have remained surprisingly steady despite the Iran war, heightened US tariffs, and broader geopolitical turbulence. Strong corporate earnings and bullish AI revenue forecasts have provided a cushion that keeps investors optimistic. The resilience is evident across major...
Big Take: The Stock Market’s ‘Curious Exuberance’ (Podcast)
Despite the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict and renewed US tariff measures, global equity markets have shown unexpected resilience. Strong corporate earnings, especially from AI‑enabled firms, have driven investor optimism and kept major indices near record highs. Bloomberg’s Big Take podcast features...
Crude Futures Rise as Banks Price In Longer Disruptions
Crude futures climbed on Monday as traders priced in a longer‑than‑expected near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The market shift reflects stalled US‑Iran negotiations that keep the strategic waterway’s status uncertain. Futures rose roughly 2% across benchmark contracts, signaling heightened...
Billion-Barrel Hormuz Oil Shock Threatens Demand as Supply Losses Mount
Prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has erased roughly one billion barrels of oil, equivalent to about 10% of global Gulf‑origin shipments. The loss now exceeds the emergency inventories released earlier in the crisis, forcing markets to curb consumption rather...
Iran Crisis: Pakistan’s Prominence and India’s Strategic Silence
The U.S.–Iran cease‑fire has been extended indefinitely, yet the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, keeping global oil shipments constrained. On The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast, hosts highlighted Pakistan’s unexpected emergence as the primary mediator between Tehran and Washington. In contrast,...
Private-Sector Assets in the IIP: A Blind Spot in Surveillance and an Opportunity for Cooperation
A CEPR event on April 27, 2026 highlighted that private‑sector holdings are largely missing from the International Investment Position (IIP) data used by the IMF and other surveillance bodies. Participants argued that this blind spot hampers the detection of capital...
US Dollar Wavers as Stalled US‑Iran Talks Fuel FX Volatility
The US dollar slipped to a 98.5 reading on the dollar index as hopes for a US‑Iran cease‑fire faded, leaving the yen hovering just below the 160 per‑dollar threshold. Traders cited the stalled negotiations and rising oil prices as the...
U.S. Treasury Scrambles 2025 Budget as Hormuz Oil Shock Deepens
The U.S. Treasury has just two weeks to finalize the 2025 federal budget while the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, threatening oil supplies and inflating global commodity prices. Treasury officials must model a budget without reliable oil‑price inputs, even as...
US Treasury Yields Jump as Middle East Tensions and Oil Prices Surge Ahead of Fed Week
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday, with the two‑year hitting 3.80% and the 10‑year reaching 4.32% as oil prices hovered near $108 a barrel and geopolitical risk in the Middle East intensified. The move comes just before the Federal Reserve’s...
Oil Rises as Iran Talks Stall
Oil prices jumped as stalled Iran‑US peace talks left the Strait of Hormuz virtually impassable, tightening global supply. West Texas Intermediate settled at $96.37 a barrel, up 2.1%, while Brent closed at $108.23, up 2.8%. The cease‑fire remains fragile, and...
Fed Expected to Hold Rates as Treasury Yields Hover Near 4.3% Amid Chairmanship Drama
The Federal Reserve is projected to leave interest rates unchanged this week while the 10‑year Treasury yield steadied at 4.318%. The outlook comes as a Justice Department decision clears the path for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation to replace Jerome Powell, intensifying...
China A‑shares Rise as Q1 Industrial Profit Surge Fuels Optimism
China's mainland A‑share markets nudged higher on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.16% to 4,086 and the Shenzhen Component up 0.37% to 14,996. The rally was anchored by a 15.5% year‑on‑year rise in first‑quarter industrial profits and a rebound...
The Mexican Government Publishes an Increase to the General Import Duty Applicable to Certain Goods Originating in Countries with Which...
On April 23, 2026 Mexico’s President office issued a decree raising the general import (MFN) duty for 185 tariff classifications, with rates now ranging from 5% to 35%. The increase targets chemicals, cosmetics, paper, textiles, steel, aluminum, auto parts, electrical...
Rates Spark: Snail’s Pace, but Getting There
The US 10‑year breakeven inflation rate has risen to 2.45%, edging toward the critical 2.5% level as oil prices climb amid the ongoing virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Short‑term breakevens are outpacing longer tenors, reflecting heightened near‑term inflation...
Former President of Costa Rica on De-Risking Fertilizer Shocks: How $700 Billion in Subsidies Can Do More
In 2022 the Ukraine war sent fertilizer prices soaring, and renewed Middle‑East conflicts have again pushed natural‑gas‑linked nitrogen fertilizer costs up about 40%, threatening food security. Governments worldwide spend roughly $700 billion each year on agricultural subsidies, yet only 35 cents of...
Fed Prioritizes Blame Avoidance Over True Price Stability
Fed watchers treat every print like it’s gospel. Newsflash: the Fed is a political institution wearing an economist costume. If you think they’re optimizing for “price stability” you haven’t been paying attention. They optimize for avoiding blame. That’s why policy lags reality… and why...
Tuesday's Packed Agenda: Rates, Trade, Earnings, Confidence
It was a quiet start to the week for scheduled event risk, but things are picking up fast. Tuesday holds: BOJ rate decision with quarterly outlook; Hong Kong trade balance; Coke and BP earnings and US Conference Board consumer confidence...
Three Scenarios for the USMCA’s Review—And Why Auto Manufacturers Should Prepare Now
The United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) faces its mandatory review this July, forcing auto makers to anticipate possible changes to tariff and content rules. The deal currently mandates 75% regional content, a 40‑45% labor‑value threshold and a $16‑per‑hour wage floor, but...
SNB Balance Sheet Exceeds GDP, Driven by Foreign Holdings
Meet the SNB balance sheet: 110% of GDP, most assets are foreign currency holdings, and there is a unique ratchet effect tied to the persistent disinflationary pressures. Big fiscal implications. Great piece by @BenignoGianluca https://t.co/5U8fazsXqT (h/t @M_C_Klein) https://t.co/BBRmXx74wL
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Vanished After War Began
A reminder ... This is what Strait of Hormuz traffic looked like the day before the war started (February 27). Now compare it to the repost below. @mercoglianos @johnkonrad https://t.co/IS4MCRm6PB
Brazil Faces Loss as Russian Diesel Rerouted to Asia
Russian diesel shipments are being diverted from Brazil to other destinations, possibly Asia. 🇧🇷What would Brazil do?
Economic Hype vs Reality: Numbers Don’t Add Up
90 year old Senators CPI: 3+% Gold: 4.5K Truflation: Inflation is 1%. If gov says higher we predicted that too All Octanes: +$6.25 Food: *cena face meme* Jobs: Lol, lmao even Hormuz: 'who?' Tech stocks: Largest rally since before you were born Axios: 'Hearing rumors' https://t.co/VbAcW2q5Yr
US Absence Derails Iran Peace Talks, Russia Gains Influence
Peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have collapsed. Nobody important from America bothered to show up, and Iran is too busy buddying up with Russia... #iranwar #peacetalk #geopolitics https://t.co/zskK6mR85J
Chinese Predatory Policies Trouble More Than Just the U.S.
Oh well wait will you look at this? It's not just the U.S. that has issues with Chinese predatory policy. https://t.co/mi5QZ0ghh9
S&P Hits Record, Barely Climbs, Tightest Range
Fresh record high for the $SPX, but an absolute crawl with just a 0.1% advance and the smallest daily trading range since January 27th. Partly returning to the dead conditions before the US-Iran conflict, partly anticipation of FOMC and Mag...
Sachs: Killing Iran's Leader Won’t Stop Nuclear Ambitions
Prof. Jeff Sachs on the propaganda surrounding Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons: "If you wanted to make sure that Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons, you wouldn't kill the leader [Khamenei] that declared they were against [Islam]. That's the first thing [Israel]...
Iran-U.S. Deal Prospects Fade as Blockade Persists
Prospects Dimming On Iran-U.S. Deal To Open Strait, End War Tehran has delivered a new offer to Washington that is unlikely to move the needle as blockade aims to cripple Iran's oil infrastructure. https://t.co/r0pwd4rNEh
Canada's $25bn Fund Ranks 53rd Globally
Would make it the 53rd largest sovereign wealth fund behind Poland's PFR - a small sum from Canada, which is the 11th largest country by GDP.
Europe Faces $32 B Extra Energy Costs From US‑Israel War
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, European countries have been forced to pay $32 BILLION MORE for oil and gas imports, according to the European Commission US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/KypyJy56DS
U.S. Seeks Eritrea Ties for Red Sea Strategic Foothold
According to the WSJ, the US is looking to re-engage with Eritrea, a FAILED STATE that borders the Red Sea. This is all about gaining a footprint on the Red Sea shipping routes and the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint. IT HAS NOTHING TO...
Commodities Surge to New Inflation Cycle Highs
Long Commodities, as an Asset Class, is punching out new Inflation Cycle Highs today https://t.co/b3IHwlmsy8
Hormuz Closure Would Upend Global Finance and Economics
If they pull this off with the Strait of Hormuz closed for say 3+ months you can throw out everything you know about finance/economics https://t.co/nPZzQHiw9o
Stablecoins Could Slash $60 B Remittance Fees
An estimated $60 billion was spent on remittance fees in 2025. This could be almost zero with stablecoins.
Fed Banks' Deferred Losses Could Delay Treasury Payments Past 2030
Great note from @billnelson2x2. Each Fed bank has its own deferred asset, a cumulative sum of its losses. It has to be repaid before remittances can be sent to Treasury. Some Fed banks will be paying them off long past...
Fertilizer Price Spike Fuels US Farmer Bankruptcies, Calls for Lawsuits
US farmers' bankruptcies are SKYROCKETING. The US-Israeli war on Iran has caused prices of fertilizer to SOAR during the spring planting season. US FARMERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/nMexGTOEtY