Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.

The Iran war, launched by the United States and Israel, is costing U.S. taxpayers roughly $800 million to $1 billion per day, far exceeding budgeted amounts. Analysts estimate that a two‑month conflict would add about $65 billion in direct war spending plus $1.4 billion in additional interest, pushing the deficit higher. Combined with the Supreme Court’s recent decision to scrap Trump’s tariffs, which could shave $74 billion from revenue, the total deficit impact could approach $139 billion, raising the projected deficit‑to‑GDP ratio from 5.8% to about 6.0%. These figures exacerbate the CBO’s long‑term warning that interest costs already account for nearly one‑fifth of federal outlays and that debt could reach 120% of GDP by 2035.
Australia is rapidly constructing massive, windowless steel cylinders on the outskirts of its largest cities to store fuel. Each tank, up to 50 metres in diameter and ten storeys high, can hold tens of millions of litres of petrol. The...

The International Energy Agency has proposed the largest ever release of strategic oil reserves to curb a price surge linked to the Middle East conflict. Oil prices slipped below $90 a barrel after the report, boosting equity markets. Governments are...
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced a new ACE‑based system to refund IEEPA tariffs within 45 days after a Court of International Trade ruling. The solution aggregates refunds by importer, bypassing the need to process each entry individually. Only about...
Borrowers face a likely interest‑rate increase as the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lift the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points at its March 26 meeting, taking it to 4.1%. Westpac and National Australia Bank have revised forecasts...

🚀 𝗭𝗲𝗿𝗼-𝘁𝗼-𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗼 𝗣𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼: 𝗙𝗲𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 Let’s break down what happened in the markets over the past month. ----- 🌏 A Shifting Global Landscape The SAASpocalypse — the fear that Artificial Intelligence will soon put Software Services companies out...

Dubai’s economy has shifted from oil reliance to a diversified, high‑growth hub, posting 3.6% GDP growth in 2023 and 4% in 2024. The UAE’s free‑zone model, tax competitiveness and regulatory certainty have attracted global firms and AI‑focused investors such as...
Tomorrow the 32 International Energy Agency members will vote on a proposal to tap up to 400 million barrels from their strategic petroleum reserves, a release larger than the 240‑million‑barrel drawdown after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The IEA holds 1.8 billion...
Indian edible‑oil buyers are accelerating shipments as vegetable‑oil prices and freight rates surge, fearing delays from the Middle East conflict. India, the world’s largest importer, is curbing fresh purchases of soy and sunflower oil, which could temper further price spikes...

Peter Lewis hosted a Money Talk podcast on March 11, 2026, featuring David Roche, President and Global Strategist at Quantum Strategy. Roche analyzed how the ongoing US‑Israel war could spill over to Iran, reshaping oil supply dynamics and broader economic...

There are many narratives that are regularly spun by the spinners. One is that the UAE is more than a sunny place where shady people reside. Another is that it is a booming economy. Wrong. When you look at the data, the...

The world's largest LNG plant hasn't exported a shipment in five days. That's the longest streak since at least 2008 🇶🇦⚠️ Qatar shut its Ras Laffan facility last week after a drone attack The longer Qatar's outage continues, the tighter the market...

The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8824, a 35‑month low for the dollar and a record‑strength yuan. The fixing, announced around 0115 GMT, follows a managed‑float system that permits a ±2% trading band. By choosing...

Since the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran just over 10 days ago, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 17% against the USD. THE TRUMP-NETANYAHU ATTACKS ON IRAN = SURPRISING STRENGTH IN THE RIAL. https://t.co/BPJtg4MvGr
The IEA is preparing to release more oil than it did after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tankers. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/TcCIMKXR4l

IATA’s 2025 World Cargo Symposium report finds air freight was pivotal in cushioning severe trade‑policy shocks, enabling $157 bn of front‑loaded U.S. imports in Q1. By accelerating shipments and opening new lanes, air cargo helped global trade expand 2.4%, pushing global...
A more skeptical take from my #CarnegieAsia colleague Barbara Weisel, who was, among other negotiating roles, the U.S. negotiator of TPP: https://t.co/qWfsfWFbf1
I feel like there’s war discourse and there’s Strait of Hormuz/energy discourse and some people are conflating the two in unhelpful ways even if they’re obviously linked.
Australia's wage price index shows real wages slipped 0.3% in 2025, leaving earnings about 6% below the pandemic‑era high of late 2011. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s February monetary policy statement signals no near‑term recovery, projecting real wages will stay...
I was interviewed two weeks ago by Mark Sobel at OMFIF about the outlook for the Chinese economy. It just came out. https://t.co/d6LFlYcl14
IEA Proposes Largest Ever Oil Release From Strategic Reserves…but if one country objects then it won’t go through (kinda like OPEC…) https://t.co/wnthFedVaT
The new Forbes et al. (2026) study uses a factor‑augmented VAR across 13 advanced economies (1970‑2024) to separate global and domestic shocks affecting interest rates, inflation and output. It finds that global shocks have risen from modest influence pre‑1999 to...
If the administration’s strategy to keep oil prices down is to manipulate the market by making false and/or vague statements on social media about the war then well…points for creativity
Just when cooling oil prices promised a bit of relief to the market, the US CPI report threatens to revive inflation fears. #inflation #CPI #StockMarket #OilShock #crudeoil #macro #trading https://t.co/2xB2LsqJuF
Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo outlined how the United States must strengthen its competitive edge amid a multipolar world order. She warned that tariffs, once imposed, are politically sticky and likely to persist, while industrial policy will lean toward one‑time...

China’s exports SURGED by 21.8% in the first 2 months of 2026. Trump’s international trade war is BACKFIRING. Thanks to Trump, CHINA IS WINNING THE TRADE WAR, BIG-TIME. https://t.co/h0s5xlnA1N
China’s Export Machine Keeps Pumping Ahead of Trump Visit—After record trade surplus in 2025, new figures suggest tensions will persist @LandersWSJ @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/siI2mnk49t https://t.co/siI2mnk49t

The article warns that the economic shock from the Israel‑U.S. attack on Iran—dubbed Gulf War III—exposes how fragile global trade is when shipping routes are disrupted. It argues that a military move against Taiwan would create a similar, if not larger,...
Good morning (still in Hanoi), @NatixisResearch @natixis published our Global Cross-Expertise overnight & please take a read for our views on: Oil & gas Metals & Precious Metals Macro Impact (Asia, Middle East, Europe, US & LatAm) Financial Market Impact (equities, rates, FX).

"Beijing is not allergic to spending. It is just not confident about spending that gives households too much autonomy over how to use the money." --@ZichenWanghere Very good read on the need for rural pension reform, among other things https://t.co/HMmzkQ9ZMn https://t.co/sEMkJotQeP
New research by Portes and Springford (2026) uses synthetic difference‑in‑differences to quantify Brexit’s effect on foreign‑born workers. The study finds that EU‑origin employment fell by about 785,000 by 2024, while non‑EU employment grew by roughly 992,000, resulting in a modest...
Japan's corporate goods price index (wholesale PPI) for February 2026 rose 2.0% year‑on‑year, slightly under the 2.1% forecast and down from 2.3% in January. On a month‑to‑month basis, the index slipped 0.1%, missing the expected 0.2% increase. The data indicates...
Seoul is really getting squeezed - (1) U.S. trade policy squeezing its competitiveness, (2) U.S. policy in the Middle East squeezing its energy security, and now (3) U.S. warfighting requirements squeezing USFK assets. It's fine to lawyer this or that...
ANZ‑Roy Morgan consumer confidence dropped 3.7 points to 73.4, pulling the four‑week moving average down to 77.0. At the same time, the four‑week average of inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.5%, while weekly inflation expectations climbed 0.8 points to...
WHEN THE ARTERY THAT SUPPLIES A FIFTH OF GLOBAL OIL NEEDS, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IS WEAPONISED. Iran says it won’t let traffic through, bills its continued closure as victory. US wants to reopen it, proposes naval escorts if necessary. Here’s Iran’s Araghchi...
Rising energy prices triggered by the Iran conflict have pushed global gas rates up roughly 50%, inflating profits for Australian LNG exporters while household bills climb. Australia, a net oil importer but major LNG exporter, faces a fiscal dilemma: a...
Independent senator David Pocock highlighted that Australia’s Petroleum Resource Rent Tax on offshore gas exports generates less revenue than the excise on beer. Treasury Deputy Secretary Shane Johnson confirmed the comparison during a February Senate estimates hearing. The revelation underscores...
The opinion piece warns that President Donald Trump’s recent military strike on Iran has embedded a costly “risk tax” across all investment portfolios. By deploying hard power, the United States has heightened geopolitical uncertainty, forcing markets to price a higher...
“We’re in a Schrodinger’s tariff right now.” One proclamation says “a 10% tariff on the rest of the world,” the next post says “a 15% tariff literally effective immediately,” then the White House pretends he never said it. The crack team...

The G‑7 is debating a coordinated release of 300‑400 million barrels from IEA strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate the Hormuz supply crisis. Historical draw‑down rates have never exceeded about 2 million barrels per day, meaning the release would cover only a fraction...
Diesel prices are edging toward $5 a gallon, squeezing margins for owner‑operators and carriers. While macro forces such as Middle‑East tensions and Fed policy are beyond a driver’s control, two levers remain: where fuel is purchased and how much is...

Bond fund inflows surged to $5.8 billion in early March as investors fled heightened Middle‑East tensions and the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Short‑term Treasury ETFs led the rush, with iShares SGOV pulling in $2.27 billion, while international and emerging‑market debt...
Policymakers and experts convened to examine how critical minerals shape the Brazil‑US economic partnership. Brazil’s abundant rare‑earth and battery‑grade mineral reserves are increasingly vital to the United States’ energy‑transition agenda. The discussion highlighted supply‑chain vulnerabilities, especially reliance on China, and...
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a virtual briefing that delivered fresh 2025 trade‑flow data between the United States and China, alongside analysis of fentanyl shipments and export‑control policies. Experts Chad Bown, Marcus Noland, Mary Lovely and Martin Chorzempa...
Our World in Data is usually one of the best sites on the internet, but this chart is kind of garbage. It just assumes slow fertility drops and low growth in Africa, when the first assumption is being falsified by...

U.S. Maritime Administrator Stephen Carmel warned that rebuilding American maritime power requires more than expanding shipyard capacity; the United States must reconstruct an entire maritime ecosystem. He highlighted that the U.S. now produces only 0.1% of global commercial ships and...
Macro: leveraged basis/swap trades in USTs unwind as repo stress. Drivers: regulation, supply surge, margin calls. Risk: disorderly USTs and deleveraging. Trade: reduce duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov

#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 668.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 111.3%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 66.2%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 65.9%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 47.4%/yr https://t.co/hmt2ECWysz
G7 head of state and/or government will hold a video call Wednesday to discuss the impact of the Third Gulf War, particularly around the “energy situation” and the Strait of Hormuz. The call is scheduled for 2pm GMT. I doubt this...

Industrial policy FTW: "China's Tariff-Defying Export Boom Leaves Its Factory Workers Behind: Workers who powered a tariff-defying boom tell a grim story of falling wages and vanishing jobs." https://t.co/cIfJHANUgW https://t.co/ZIN1PXUzwE