Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
India–New Zealand FTA to Double India’s Engineering Exports to $280–300 Mn in Five Years
India and New Zealand have signed a free‑trade agreement that eliminates duties on all Indian goods, giving the engineering sector a clear pathway to double its exports to the Kiwi market. Current shipments of $140.5 million are expected to climb to $280‑300 million within five years, driven by demand for automotive, dairy‑machinery, and medical instruments. EEPC India’s chairman highlighted the boost for MSMEs, while the pact fits into India’s broader push to expand engineering exports globally.
Parliament Wants EU Long-Term Budget to Top €2 Trillion
The European Parliament voted to raise the EU’s 2028‑2034 budget by 10%, targeting more than €2 trillion (about $2.2 trillion). The increase adds roughly €200 billion ($218 billion) for farmers, regional development and industrial competitiveness. Parliament also called for new EU‑wide taxes on online...
Carmakers Warn that Affordable Compact Cars May Leave US Market
Several foreign automakers, including Nissan, Hyundai and Toyota, warned that without a renewed or strengthened USMCA, entry‑level compact cars could vanish from the U.S. market. The current pact provides tariff‑free treatment only for vehicles with North American parts, but recent...
India Industrial Output Hits 5-Month Low of 4.1% in March as Power, Manufacturing Drag
India’s industrial output growth slowed to a five‑month low of 4.1% in March 2026, according to the National Statistics Office. The slowdown was driven by weak manufacturing, which rose only 4.3%, and a sharp drop in power generation to 0.8%...
Gold Slides to $4,600 as Oil‑Driven Inflation Fears Grip US Markets
Spot gold slipped to $4,612 an ounce, a 1.5% drop that pushed the metal toward the $4,600 level. The sell‑off was sparked by rising crude prices and fresh data that suggest US inflation may stay elevated, tightening the Federal Reserve’s...
Middle East War Shakes Tourism in the Western Balkans
The war in the Middle East is rippling into the Western Balkans, where disrupted Gulf air routes, soaring fuel prices and traveler anxiety are prompting cancellations and lower demand. Tour operators such as Balkan Prime Tours report a 20% drop...
Government Borrowing Costs Soar as Iran War Drags On
UK government borrowing costs have surged to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis as oil prices spiked following the Iran‑Israel conflict. The 10‑year gilt yield breached the 5% mark for only the third time since the war began,...
Cargo Carriers Return to Venezuela
Following the U.S. easing of sanctions on Venezuela, airlines are rapidly reinstating cargo services to the country. Over the past week, international cargo capacity rose about 40% year‑over‑year, driven by a 479% surge in widebody freighter slots while narrowbody capacity...
Crude Oil Expected to Fall, Capping Grain Prices
All Linked Now -- How Long Can Crude Buoy Grains? If crude oil stays elevated in 2026, grain and agriculture prices may as well, but elasticity is typically a primary constraint. My bias is that the December WTI crude future, at...
India-New Zealand FTA Duty Concessions Under to Help Boost Exports of Single Malt Whisky: CIABC
India and New Zealand have finalized a free‑trade agreement that grants duty‑free access for Indian alcoholic beverages into the New Zealand market. The Confederation of Indian Alcoholic Beverage Companies (CIABC) says the concession will particularly lift the modest $1 million annual export of...
Separating From Canada Would Be an Economic Disaster for Alberta
Alberta’s separatist movement is gaining traction as voters cite high federal taxes and equalization transfers, claiming independence would save roughly $55 billion USD annually. Polls show 96% of separatists believe they would escape damaging federal policies, while 88% want to exit the...
U.S. Equity Futures Stay Flat at All‑time Highs as Risk Sentiment Improves
U.S. equity futures were flat at all‑time highs on Tuesday morning, reflecting a lift in risk appetite after an Axios report that Iran offered a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The market awaits earnings from companies representing...
Bl Interview: ‘Pace of FPI Return Will Hinge on Global Liquidity, Interest-Rate Cycle, Currency Stability’
HSBC Mutual Fund CEO Kailash Kulkarni says India’s equity valuations have slipped to about 21‑times earnings, aligning with long‑term averages and creating a more attractive entry point for investors. Foreign portfolio investors have off‑loaded roughly $20 billion of Indian stocks in...
Unresolved Iran Crisis Makes Two-Year Market Calm Unlikely
The @johnauthers piece was good today. He asks whether surviving the Iran crisis would be like 1998 LTCM/Russia default, a market scare that triggers a subsequent two-year meltup in US tech stock. I guess there are two problems: 1. The Iran...
Mugur Isărescu: South-East Europe's Next Leap Forward
Governor Mugur Isărescu outlined Romania’s post‑Covid recovery, noting that inflation, which spiked after energy and food price shocks, has begun to ease but remains exposed to supply‑side volatility. He emphasized the need for gradual fiscal consolidation, deeper structural reforms, and...
UK Bond Selloff Sends 10-Year Yield Back to 5% Ahead of BOE Meet
UK government bond yields have surged, with the 10‑year benchmark climbing back above 5% for the first time in a month. The rise follows six of seven trading sessions up, adding roughly 30 basis points in under two weeks. The...
BoC Preview: Rates to Remain Unchanged Amid US-Iran Uncertainty and Soft Data
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as it navigates heightened US‑Iran tensions and soft domestic data. March inflation rose to 2.4% driven by energy price spikes, while the core trimmed‑mean CPI eased...
Ghana Cedi Slides to GH¢11.85 per Dollar as Structural FX Leakages Persist
The Ghana cedi weakened to GH¢11.85 per U.S. dollar, extending a two‑week depreciation trend while volatility eased to about 0.5%. Economists warn that trade‑surplus gains are being eroded by gold‑export leakages, profit repatriation and an upcoming IMF disbursement that could...
Iran Offers to Reopen Strait of Hormuz for $108 Oil, US Rejects, Merz Calls US Humiliated
Iran told Pakistan it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the United States ends its naval blockade, a move that would restore a fifth of global oil flow. The proposal coincided with Brent crude climbing to about $108 a...
U.S. Treasury Sells $70 Billion of 5‑Year Notes, Yields Hit 3.955% as Auction Tails Modestly
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $70 billion of 5‑year notes on Monday, posting a high yield of 3.955% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.33. The modest tail and rising yields underscore tightening conditions in the fixed‑income market as investors weigh higher rates...
‘Keeps Me Awake at Night’: Bank of England Warns Stocks May Crash as Market Risks Build. Protect Your Portfolio Now
Bank of England financial‑stability chief Sarah Breeden warned that soaring equity valuations could soon face a correction, even as the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 hit record highs. The rally is driven largely by massive AI‑related spending, which some liken to a...
Martin Schlegel: Comments on Swiss Monetary Policy
At the Swiss National Bank’s 2025 shareholders meeting, Martin Schlegel underscored the institution’s three pillars—legal independence, a proven monetary‑policy strategy, and expert staff—as essential to delivering its price‑stability mandate of 0‑2% inflation. He recapped a rapid tightening after the pandemic,...
RBI Norms, Oil Spike, FII Outflows Drive India Slump
Top 5 reasons the Indian market is falling today : 1. RBI's updated ECL credit-loss norms hammering bank stocks (PSU & private banks down 1-2%). 2. Crude oil surge on US-Iran geopolitical tensions, spiking inflation worries & hitting aviation. 3. Ongoing FII...
Germany's €1.6bn Energy Aid Misfires, Repeats Past Errors
Good Morning from Germany, where the govt plans to spend €1.6bn to shield consumers from rising energy prices. That makes Germany the No. 2 spender in Europe – far behind Spain. The problem: measures like fuel rebates are poorly designed....
Joachim Nagel: The Digital Euro - Anchoring Europe's Strategic Autonomy in a Digital Future
German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel outlined the Eurosystem’s push for a digital euro, positioning it as a public‑sector complement to cash and private payment apps. He highlighted that cash now represents just 24% of daily payments in the euro area...
Budget Constraints Limit Stats SA Data
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) says its limited budget and tiny staff prevent it from adopting scanner‑based point‑of‑sale data to produce real‑time inflation measures. The agency currently relies on a team of two to three part‑time analysts, while the UK’s...
The Cognitive Dissonance Is Getting Painful Here.
The episode focuses on the escalating tension between global energy markets and risk sentiment, driven by the Iran‑U.S. standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on oil prices. Host Boyd highlights record U.S. diesel exports, rising Brent and...
Markets Search for Direction as Geopolitics and Earnings Dominate Focus: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures
U.S. equity futures traded flat to slightly lower on Tuesday as investors balanced geopolitical tension over Iran with mixed corporate news. President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s proposal to end hostilities without addressing its nuclear program, keeping the Strait...
Russia-Linked LNG Carriers Head North After Reflagging, Signalling Arctic Fleet Expansion
Four former Omani LNG carriers, sold for roughly $110 million, have been re‑flagged under the Russian register and are now steaming north toward Murmansk. The vessels—Kosmos, Merkuriy, Luch and Orion—were renamed multiple times and are linked to Turkish‑controlled firms, though ultimate...
What Would European Military Help Safeguarding Hormuz Actually Look Like?
The United Kingdom and France convened a head‑of‑state meeting on 17 April to launch a multinational coalition aimed at restoring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Four working groups are already drafting plans for military coordination, sanctions, humanitarian aid and...
Bank of England Rate Decision Puts UK Borrowers in a Cost-of-Money Trap
The Bank of England is set to announce its April 30 decision with the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% as UK CPI climbs to 3.3% year‑over‑year, driven by higher fuel costs. While the headline rate may hold, the MPC’s wording...
Strong Dollar Selling Expected for This Month-End - Credit Agricole
Credit Agricole’s month‑end fixing model signals strong dollar selling as portfolio‑rebalancing flows intensify, especially versus the euro. The bank notes that the USD was broadly weaker in April, but month‑end pressures could reverse that trend. EUR/USD is projected to climb...
China's Oil Giants Hit by New US Sanctions
The United States has imposed new sanctions on China’s largest private refiner, Hengli Petrochemical, accusing it of purchasing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Iranian crude over several years. The measures also blacklist about 40 vessels linked to Iran’s...
Transition to a New Fed Chair Is Unlikely to Mean Immediate Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 3.5%‑3.75% as Jerome Powell chairs what is likely his final meeting as Fed chair. Powell’s term as a governor runs until early 2028, but his successor, Kevin Warsh,...
The World Needs Natural Gas Now, but the U.S. Is Exporting All It Can
The war in Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off Qatari LNG shipments and sending European and Asian prices soaring. The United States, now the world’s largest LNG exporter, is already operating its export terminals at full capacity,...
Bank of Japan’s Hawkish Hold Reflects High Geopolitical Uncertainty
The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% on April 28, citing ongoing Middle‑East geopolitical uncertainty, while three board members pushed for a 25‑basis‑point hike. Its quarterly outlook sharply lifted the FY2026 inflation forecast to 2.8% YoY...
Sergio Nicoletti Altimari: The Italian Financial System - Stability, Innovation, and the Road Ahead
Deputy Governor Sergio Nicoletti Altimari highlighted the Italian financial system’s turnaround from the sovereign‑debt crisis to a more resilient, efficient landscape. He noted that banks have strengthened capital buffers, reduced non‑performing loans, and embraced digital tools, while non‑bank intermediaries are gaining...
Zimbabwe Tightens Raw Mineral Export Ban to Drive Industrial Growth and Innovation
Deputy Minister Sheila Chikomo reaffirmed Zimbabwe's ban on unbeneficiated raw mineral exports, citing Statutory Instrument 5 of 2020 as a tool to boost domestic value addition. The policy aligns with National Development Strategy 2 (2026‑2030) and the African Continental Free Trade Area,...
ECB’s Latest Surveys Point to Rising Stagflationary Pressures
The European Central Bank’s latest Bank Lending Survey and consumer expectations poll reveal mounting stagflationary pressures in the eurozone. Credit standards tightened for both consumer and corporate loans in Q1 2026, while demand for new loans weakened. Inflation expectations rose sharply,...
Trump‑Xi Summit Unlikely to Shift Asia’s Geopolitical Landscape
Enjoyed chatting with @cherykang and @MandyCNBC on @CNBC #SquawkBoxAsia from the Singapore studio about my rather low expectations for the prospective Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, who has leverage on whom, why the United States has lost the plot on how...
Impasse at Hormuz
The United States and Iran remain locked in a stalemate over the Hormuz Strait, with Iran leveraging backing from China and Russia to keep the waterway closed. The impasse, now extending into a two‑month truce, has halted vital energy flows...
U.S. Turns to Africa for Critical Minerals as Supply Chain Risks Grow
The United States is turning to Africa to secure critical minerals essential for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and defense. Gabon now supplies 100% of U.S. manganese imports, while South Africa provides the majority of platinum, chromium and palladium. This shift...
Bitcoin Slides Below $77k; Cut Longs, Await Fed Guidance
Macro: Bitcoin dips below $77k as oil surge and pre-central-bank caution sap risk appetite. Energy inflation and AI worries raise tightening risk. Trade: reduce longs; await Fed/ECB guidance. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Trump's Iran Strategy Isolates Italy and U.S. Allies
Trump's chaotic and isolated approach to the Iran War has caused rifts between the U.S. and many of its closest European allies. Topping that list is the Italians. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/AkAWXRScuC #iranwar #italy #geopolitics https://t.co/ZM8pQvXrQU
Euro Area Inflation Expectations for the Year Ahead Jump to Highest Since October 2023
The European Central Bank’s March consumer expectations survey shows year‑ahead inflation expectations jumping to 4.0%, the highest level since October 2023. This marks a sharp rise from the 2.5% recorded in February. The increase reflects heightened price pressures as the...
Wars in Ukraine and Iran Undermine Global Economies
Russia’s economy is bad, reports @TheMichaelEvery The truth is that wars in Ukraine & Iran are hurting ALL economies The myth is clean outcomes. The reality is slow degradation that shows up unevenly Too late for consensus to price it correctly. #Russia #WarEconomy...
Iran's Hormuz Stance Shows Leverage, Not Peace
Iran’s offer is not peace. It’s leverage. Stop attacks in Hormuz, lift the blockade, delay nuclear talks. Iran will not give up Hormuz Trump would be seen as a LOSER He has lost far more than he’s won in this war https://t.co/ROFpujXMUA #Oil #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics
Latest ECB Consumer Expectations Survey Shows Surging Inflation Expectations, Lower Growth
The European Central Bank’s March consumer expectations survey shows one‑year inflation expectations jumping to 4.0% from 2.5% in February, while three‑year forecasts rise to 3.0%. Households anticipate tighter credit, higher mortgage rates and a modest rise in home‑price expectations. Economic...
ERZ6/7 Reprice as Inflation Expectations Decouple, Credit Tightens
ERZ6 and ERZ7 repricing sharply on evidence from the ECB's CES that consumer inflation expectations are now becoming unmoored from the 2%, completely ignoring the dire BLS, pointing to a sharp, albeit unbalanced, tightening in credit standards and falling credit...
Philip R Lane: Expanding the Supply of Euro Safe Assets
In a recent speech, Philip R. Lane highlighted the chronic undersupply of euro‑denominated safe assets, noting that Germany's Bunds serve as the de‑facto benchmark but are too limited in scale. He pointed to declining inter‑country spread volatility as evidence of...