Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
China‑Europe rail freight via Russia fell sharply in 2025, with a 14.1% drop in total TEUs and a 22.7% plunge in eastbound shipments, reaching a historic low of 38,422 TEUs. Despite the volume decline, Chinese export value to Europe rose 8.4% to $560 billion, highlighting a severe 7:1 container imbalance. The China Railway Express added 3.2% more trains, but 85% now serve Central Asia and Russia rather than Europe. Lower sea‑freight rates and geopolitical bottlenecks have redirected shippers away from the traditional Poland‑Belarus corridor.
JUST IN: A cool February inflation reading. Inflation remained at 2.4% (y/y) in February, the same as January. This reading was before the war in Iran began, so gas prices were still below $3 average. -->Note that some items had larger...
The Mexican Embassy highlighted that Mexico invested $61.7 billion in the United States in 2025 and that bilateral trade now totals $873 billion—roughly $1.7 million each minute. Mexico’s exports to the U.S. reach $535 billion while imports stand at $338 billion, meaning the U.S. buys...
Oil prices +2% - here’s the latest: ⚠️ Iran: Says it will target U.S. technology company facilities next, including $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $IBM $ORCL $PLTR locations in Israel, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi 🛢️ Oil reserve release updates: 🇩🇪 Germany to partially release national...
In this episode of the Sound of Economics, former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knopp and Bruegel director Jeremy Zentelmeier assess Europe’s economic outlook amid the new Israel‑Iran conflict, highlighting the region’s surprising resilience but warning of a negative supply shock from...
The reality is: If you like commodities, you should also appreciate resource-rich economies — and their currencies. Canadian “peso” poised to outperform while it remains one of the most heavily shorted currencies in the world today. You don’t need to tell me...
The latest Wide Boundary News episode examines the U.S. and Israeli military offensive against Iran and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil and a significant share of LNG, sulfur...
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet from March 31 to April 2 in a summit that could extend their year‑long trade truce. Chinese officials say the White House has provided no clear agenda, leaving Beijing unsure...
Industries don't collapse overnight. They are systematically pushed out. China's 90% Model works by building production capacity to meet 90% of global demand in a targeted sector. Chinese companies then flood markets and price at or below marginal cost—supported by subsidies, cheap...
US political leaders, the oil industry, and traders are waking up to what we advised clients in June: restoring oil and LNG flow in the Strait of Hormuz won't be quick or easy. A load-bearing assumption in global energy is...
The Middle East war intensified with three tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the International Energy Agency to propose a coordinated release of 300‑400 million barrels from strategic reserves. The G7 will discuss the plan, which dwarfs the 180 million‑barrel...
Escalating hostilities between the United States, Israel and Iran have disrupted LPG shipments to India, prompting Oil Marketing Companies to issue a force‑majeure notice. Borosil Ltd, a major glass maker in Jaipur, said the shortage forced a temporary shutdown of...
The episode focuses on the International Energy Agency's proposal to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from member countries' strategic reserves to counter a sharp price surge caused by the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian attacks....
Turkey’s textile and raw material exports generated $11.4 bn in 2025. This represents a modest 0.8 % decline from 2024, the smallest dip in a decade. The Istanbul Textile and Raw Materials Exporters’ Association (İTHİB) attributes the performance to resilient demand and...
India announced a fast‑track approval process for Chinese investments in selected sectors, reducing clearance time to 60 days. The new rules apply to electronics, capital goods, solar cells and battery components, but require Indian residents to hold majority stakes. The...
Also, as the IEA releases, member countries are reaching out to China to make sure it doesn't use the opportunity to buy more barrels for its own reserve (as it did in 2022). (...the IEA-Chinese coordinate was last done in 2011...
U.S. Representative Ed Case warned that a pending Department of Homeland Security rule could force Visa Waiver Program travelers to disclose extensive personal data, including up to five years of social‑media history. The proposal targets ESTA applicants and aims to...
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by U.S.-Israeli forces sparked widespread protests across South Asia. In India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, Sunni‑majority crowds marched alongside Shia groups, chanting against the United States and Israel. Organizers framed the strike...
The European Union accepted an asymmetrical trade deal with the United States, lowering its residual tariffs while the US maintains high reciprocal tariffs. The arrangement prevents a retaliatory trade war and keeps European import costs modest. Analysts argue the deal...
The European Central Bank heads into its March 18 meeting facing a sharp shift in the macro backdrop as the Middle East war drives oil prices higher, removing any realistic chance of further rate cuts. Instead of fine‑tuning inflation forecasts,...
China’s central bank has allowed the renminbi’s daily fixing volatility to surge to its highest level since December 2024, signalling a tolerance for two‑way price swings. The People’s Bank of China set the reference rate at 6.89 yuan per U.S. dollar,...
India announced a relaxation of its foreign investment rules, allowing Chinese firms to invest in a limited set of sectors after a six‑year freeze that began in 2020. The policy shift caps Chinese ownership at 49 percent in approved industries...
S&P Global Ratings warns that India’s oil‑marketing firms IOC, BPCL and HPCL could see profit margins squeezed as they keep retail petrol and diesel prices steady amid a recent crude price surge. Crude oil jumped above $100 per barrel after...
Brazil and Saudi Arabia launch a critical minerals working group and seek Saudi funding for Brazil mapping. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/brazil-saudi-arabia-to-cooperate-for.html
The World Travel & Tourism Council warns that the Iran conflict is wiping out roughly $600 million in international visitor spending each day. Airspace closures and flight cancellations are disrupting the Middle East’s role as a critical aviation crossroads, affecting hubs...
We see three scenarios for the ECB. 1) They hold their nerve "in a good place". 2) They pull fwd the tightening that has long been priced into 27/28 and take the depo rate to the higher end of neutral...
Excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco and sugar remain a key tool for raising revenue and improving public health, especially in low‑income nations. However, the rapid emergence of products such as e‑cigarettes, nicotine pouches and low‑alcohol beverages is exposing gaps in...
🇪🇺 Not only did @KazimirPeter signal a strong ECB hawkish bias, but he said that every meeting should be alive after March. *ECB'S KAZIMIR SAYS RATE HIKE ON IRAN MAY BE CLOSER THAN THOUGHT "I don’t want to speculate about April or...
In the coming days and weeks, a lot may hinge on the pipelines running West from the Gulf. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/olUgBDf1dD
U.S. strikes on Iran have prompted Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE to suspend oil and gas operations and deter tankers from the Strait of Hormuz, sharply curtailing Middle East energy exports. The disruption threatens $208 billion in crude shipments—about 21%...
A conversation between me and PGIM's Daleep Singh (recorded before the bombs started falling on Tehran) that covers a number of big macro themes -- including the persistence of an unhealthy and unbalanced forms of globalization. https://t.co/9i02acEiiE
I was interviewed by @AlJazeera on impacts of Middle East crisis on energy markets. We discussed Europe’s structural vulnerability due to fossil fuel imports, broader economic effects of energy price volatility & why this moment should sharpen focus on the energy...
The Dutch economy posted stronger‑than‑expected Q4 2025 growth, buoyed by robust goods exports and solid government consumption, creating a positive carry‑over into 2026. Manufacturing output rose 0.4% in January and consumer sales improved despite muted retail sentiment. While the Middle‑East...
Even if the war ends fast, “normal” won’t fully return. Trust and relationships are slow to rebuild, and that shows up as less trade, less cooperation, and more expensive risk management. https://t.co/mIgNA1yJph
Iran’s Control of Hormuz Means It’s Exporting More Oil Today Than Before the War https://t.co/UlXJwHN0ld
The UK‑India free‑trade agreement, finalised in July 2025, promises to remove the 8‑12% duties on most Indian textiles, garments and footwear entering the UK. Retailers and suppliers, however, are frustrated by the still‑pending ratification in the UK Parliament, leaving tariffs...
"Farmers Face Skyrocketing Fertilizer Prices," https://t.co/CYP8u85BYC "Even when the United States is not directly importing fertilizer from the Middle East, domestic prices still follow global markets." 😲 https://t.co/5N5ApqoDhL
Middle East War Intensifies, IEA Proposes a Coordinated Release of Strategic Reserves, G7 to Consider: The dollar is mixed as the North American session is about to begin. Heightened expectations of a rate hike next week have lifted the Australian...
Greece to impose cap on profit margins for fuel and groceries https://t.co/PeATWo5wZT via @NikasSotiris https://t.co/SdRCwkzf2I
$AUD reached its best level since June 2022 amid heightened expectations of a rate hike next week. $USD more broadly mixed. PBOC lows USD fix again. US CPI seems dated but will show floor before the war....
From oversupply to concern of shortages - IEA oil stocks release is coming, sources say https://t.co/ttzyIWK0qw
Germany can weather Iran war if it doesn’t last, DIW says https://t.co/p2s5WEREa5 via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/Tgo1ceqVj6
MOSCOW, March 11 (Reuters) - The price of Russian oil used for taxation has exceeded the budget target for the first time since January 2025 because of the rise in global prices caused by the Iran war, Reuters calculations showed...
Frustrating. China won't use the "clean" balance sheet of the central government to support a real recovery from the prolonged property market slump. The net result: a rising trade surplus supports China's growth at the expense of its trading...
EU weighs a gas price cap to lower power costs amid Iran war https://t.co/3qDLf3s6Jq via @johnainger https://t.co/A2PK57MYOp
inflation is about power. In the 70s, workers had the power to resist the oil squeeze. In 2022, there were acute labour shortages, which produced temporary pockets of worker "power". Today, workers are gonna get hosed
never bet against the ECB doing the wrong thing, particularly when energy prices are involved
Spoke with Bloomberg earlier today about the IEA stocks release plan, the information war on top of the military conflict in the Mideast, the severe pricing dislocations in the oil market, plus the unfolding impact of the continued closure of...
Sánchez rejects Trump’s threat to cut off US trade with Spain https://t.co/fIgEZES8mP via @rorihuela https://t.co/Fiix9DqEgG
Inside the G7 (and the G20) most countries are absolutely livid with the Trump administration's attack on Iran, but don't mistake their indignation with a desire to let Iran take the global economy hostage via oil. G7/G20/OECD nations will respond...
