Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The episode explains that 32 IEA member countries have agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves—the largest ever—to curb soaring energy prices amid the US‑Israel conflict in Iran. IEA Executive Director Faith Beryl notes this release is about twice the size of the 2022 Ukraine‑related drawdown and represents roughly four days of global oil consumption, but it cannot be repeated often. The discussion also covers why diesel prices are rising faster than petrol in Europe, the impact on inflation and consumer costs, and perspectives from industry experts and consumers in the US and Europe.
Maersk has begun sourcing marine fuel from the United States and Europe to supply its Asian fleet, after recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz left key Middle‑East and Asian bunkering hubs unable to meet demand. Chief commercial officer Karsten...
"The Russian government is preparing a possible 10% cut to all 'non-sensitive' spending in this year's budget, sources told Reuters, but the final decision will hinge on the sustainability of the oil price rise triggered by the war in Iran. As...
World leaders agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest coordinated IEA drawdown ever, to counter a sharp Brent price surge after the Iran war began. Despite the announcement, Brent crude rose to about $91 per barrel, indicating...
Bond market volatility spiked on Wednesday after three cargo vessels were struck near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing 10‑year U.S. Treasury yields from just above 4.14% to near 4.20%. The attacks revive concerns over oil‑supply disruptions, keeping Brent crude roughly...
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced that Italy will request an immediate suspension of the EU Emissions Trading System for fossil‑fuel‑fired power generators, arguing the scheme adds roughly €30/MWh, or about a quarter of household electricity costs. The move is...
We still need Feb PPI , but Feb core PCE looks much stronger than Feb core CPI. On Friday, Jan core PCE will also be stronger than Jan core CPI. This is not shelter. Instead, it reflects the differences in...
Iran escalated its campaign against Gulf allies by launching drones that struck Dubai International Airport, wounding four people, and by hitting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian military also announced plans to target banks and financial institutions...
Russian crude output slipped 0.6% in February, falling to 9.184 million bpd, as sanctions pressure persisted but a U.S. waiver helped Indian imports rebound. Saudi Arabia simultaneously boosted production to over 10.1 million bpd, citing a contingency plan amid escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes...
The International Energy Agency’s member states voted unanimously to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency strategic reserves, a move that more than doubles the 182 million‑barrel drawdown in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The sizable release is intended to...
More to come but things to keep in mind… CPI headline figures of 2.4% are artificially suppressed by the lapse in data collection during the six week government shutdown. Under the hood, there is a disturbing acceleration in core service sector...
Ottawa has opened the Canadian market to Chinese electric‑vehicle imports, reviving a debate that first surfaced when Japanese automakers entered in the 1960s. At that time, unions feared job losses, but Japanese firms eventually built plants in Ontario, creating thousands...
In order to help us visualize the various stress points in the market (and in case they get worse), I created several dashboards over the weekend. First up is the commodity & currency heat map. From left to right are the...
Jeff Currie, former head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, warned that the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz makes oil prices virtually unstoppable in the near term, and no policy response—such as strategic petroleum reserve releases or government...
The primary driver is the escalating conflict in West Asia involving Iran, Israel, and the US. This has effectively choked the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime gateway for nearly 90% of India's LPG imports. While the government has prioritized domestic supply...
Former US secretary of state John Kerry warned that the recent oil price surge caused by the war in Iran underscores the security risks of dependence on fossil fuels. He called for countries to achieve energy independence by accelerating deployment...
The International Energy Agency announced a historic release of 400 million barrels of emergency crude, the largest drawdown in its history and about one‑third of members’ total reserves. The move aims to temper soaring oil prices triggered by the U.S.–Israel conflict...
Everyone thinks this war will be quick, clean, and somehow end with peace across the Middle East. That’s fantasy. We’ve heard this story before. Iraq. Afghanistan. Politicians promise “mission accomplished” and the real problems start right after. Markets are still far too optimistic...
The Trump administration abandoned its long‑standing maximum‑pressure sanctions campaigns against Iran and Venezuela, turning to direct military operations to achieve regime change. Repeated sanctions over the past years failed to topple Tehran’s leadership or remove Nicolás Maduro, partly due to...
The Thai government is using the state‑run Oil Fuel Fund to subsidise diesel and gasoline as global oil prices climb, spending over one billion baht a day on the program. Losses are projected to hit ten billion baht by March 18,...
Senate Democrats introduced the Small Business Liberation 2.0 Act to shield small importers from President Trump’s newly imposed 10 percent tariffs. The bill mandates a 90‑day refund of duties already collected and bars unreasonable price hikes for five years. It follows a...
US consumer price index held steady in February at a 2.4% year‑over‑year increase, matching the previous month. The pause came just before the US‑Israel conflict in Iran sparked a sharp jump in oil prices, pushing gasoline above $3.50 per gallon....
Nice to see that @HyunSongShin has officially recognized that stablecoins open the door to an "Uber Surge Pricing" type liquidity market. [Actual gas markets also clear in a similar way, notably the NBP balancing point system.] The below screenshot is from...
The UK government will review its planned September removal of the fuel‑duty freeze after the Iran war drove crude oil prices to about $90 a barrel, pushing petrol up 6p and diesel up 12p in a week. Prime Minister Keir...
Inflation data in the U.S. has been released. Everything came in line with expectations. Right now, the market is more concerned not with current inflation, but with the risk that it could start rising again in March amid a - likely...
In this episode, JP Morgan’s Amaury Guzman, Kevin Foley (global head of capital markets) and Tarek Hamid (head of North American Credit Research) debrief the themes from their Global Leveraged Finance Conference, focusing on how heightened geopolitical risk—especially the Iran‑related oil...
A relatively tame CPI for February which is, of course, the before times. Annual rates for core: 1 month: 2.6% 3 months: 3.0% 6 months: 2.3% 12 months: 2.5%
Tariffs are reshaping cost structures and supply chains for small‑ and midsize‑businesses, turning agility into a survival imperative. The article proposes disciplined scenario planning as a leadership super‑power, outlining four distinct tariff environments that SMBs may face. Each scenario highlights...
The U.S. Supreme Court overturned President Trump’s global tariff framework, leaving the 15% EU‑US tariff rate in limbo and prompting the European Parliament to pause ratification of the new trade pact. EU exports to the United States fell 25% in...
🚨 Big Tech in Iran Crosshairs - Is a Market Sell-Off Coming? Everyone watched CPI today… but the real story is Iran. Tehran just warned U.S. tech facilities and banks in the Middle East could be next targets - naming companies...
Very pleased to read the Government of India's supportive statement for @IEA's collective action to release emergency oil stocks to address disruptions in global oil markets – and that India stands ready to take appropriate measures to support global market...
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported underlying price growth of 0.2% in February, a slight dip to 0.216% versus the whisper forecast. The figure aligned with most economists’ expectations, easing concerns about a resurgence of core inflation. Despite the...
Rather dramatic repricing of the Fed rate path vs 3 weeks ago before the Iran war. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.28 with odds increasing that cut cycle is already over https://t.co/VYJRS9oWdI
yes, managing to stop all non-Iranian oil tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf is a tremendous impact.
Saudi Aramco resumed 70% of oil shipments via Red Sea pipeline. Markets celebrated. But 30% is still offline. And the Strait of Hormuz — the main artery — remains contested. 70% of normal isn't normal. https://t.co/8vfhBzo9cZ
The Fed is 99% expected to hold rates next week. April cut odds just dropped to 11%. The "Fed pivot will rescue crypto" trade has been on standby for two years now.
I’m looking forward to being “Hedgeye Live" in May. It will be a candid, data-driven discussion between me and @KeithMcCullough on the Fed, the economy, and markets — Get your tickets:https://t.co/MHeVrqQao0 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #hedgeye https://t.co/YcfP4M0qvV
Europe rushes to deal with price fallout from Trump’s Iran war https://t.co/khA8dhNhMj via @johnainger @donatopmancini https://t.co/3tcyP5Pu0U
if you keep increasing the taxy levy without real benefits, eventually new supply (some forced) comes into market and lowers price, which then increases the tax rate burden as a % of asset that makes it very unattractive this is the...
The Strait of Hormuz remains almost shut, even as the risk premium priced into Brent currently (blue) is on par with that after Ukraine (black). The Strait is 3 times more important for global oil supply than Russia, so risk...
Rather than the IEA's own 400 million barrels, the most important number right now is Japan's announcement that's releasing from Monday (March 16th) ~80 million barrels from its reserve. Those are actual flow barrels that will hit the market immediately...
9 trading days into the conflict, crude and gas price trajectory has been very similar oil: https://t.co/O0orfuxpnw
Before adding in geopolitical inflation risk, goods inflation outside food and energy is already running about 3% faster than what prevailed for most of the last 3 decades Much of this is tariffs, but bottlenecks from the AI boom are also...
Quantum leap forward in financialization with ZIRP, but original sin (to your handle) was the Maestro using monetary policy to make us richer than our economy could grow. The Rubicon on ZIRP policy was QE 2. That’s when emergency gov’t...
fun fact: the @bankofcanada has decreased rates 7 times since September 4th, 2024... both Canada 5-year and 10-year yields are higher since they started... #oops
Why the Fed can't do much with a CPI report that's benign on the surface: It doesn't at all resolve the dilemma Fed officials face when the inflation measure they care about most is less encouraging and a major energy...
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG
Generally, this has been good value for UST 2s. Chart of yield less funding rate (SOFR) https://t.co/jPLWuxmxaW
I'm not quite sure what to call this — a video essay, an explainer, or an econ lesson... It's my attempt to explain the economics of war — economic theories of how and why war occurs — and to use that...
Toldja: "Globalization is proving resilient" https://t.co/IpMqFYjhJK The data's "a counter-narrative to politicians and analysts arguing that economic disengagement and the formation of new, distinct geopolitical blocs are happening in any seismic way" Twas always a silly idea. https://t.co/UcJgPpaAFP
