Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
India’s central bank faces mounting pressure to pause its rate‑cut cycle as West‑Asia oil price shocks reignite inflation concerns. A surge in Brent crude, coupled with fading food‑price base effects, threatens to push consumer inflation above the RBI’s 4% target. Simultaneously, foreign portfolio outflows have driven the rupee to a historic low of ₹92.35 per dollar, constraining monetary policy space. Economists now see little chance of another easing move before the April 9 MPC meeting.
Bond yields are back near their highest levels of 2026. Mortgage rates are also close to their 2026-highs, with MND putting the 30-year fixed at 6.19% today, just 2 bps below its peak thus far this year. There's a decent chance mortgage...
The US collected a record $308 billion in customs duties over the last 12 months, which was 276% higher than what was collected in the 12 months prior ($83 billion). Who is paying this tax and how much of it will...
The International Energy Agency announced it will release 400 million barrels of oil from members' emergency reserves, the largest drawdown in its history and more than double the 2022 release for Ukraine. The volume represents roughly 20 days of oil...
- Mixed Earnings - New Fed Chair - Multiple sectors collapsing - Aggressive Middle East War - Venezuela invaded - China challenging the US Dollar - US tariffs deemed illegal - Precious metals going parabolic - Oil spiking - $VIX running to 35 - Crypto completing an ABC correction And...
The United States, under Donald Trump, launched a war against Iran that immediately killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting Vladimir Putin to issue a rare public condemnation while acknowledging that the conflict mirrors his own vision of a rule‑by‑force world....
South Africa is walking a diplomatic tightrope as the United States‑Israel war with Iran intensifies, keeping a non‑aligned posture while trying to repair strained ties with Washington. President Cyril Ramaphosa has launched a probe into Iran’s participation in BRICS+ naval drills...
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have driven global fertilizer prices up 50‑80%, raising the cost of key agricultural inputs. Shipping rates, marine insurance and energy prices have also surged, creating pressure on agro‑chemical supply chains. UPL Group’s COO,...
Nearly every Senate Democrat signed a letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth demanding a swift investigation into a February 28 airstrike that hit a girls' school in Iran, killing dozens of children. Reuters reports U.S. investigators now consider it likely that U.S....
1/6 Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war. The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of...
President Donald Trump told reporters he is not worried about potential Iran‑backed attacks on U.S. soil, despite an FBI alert warning California police of possible drone strikes on the West Coast. The warning follows U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian...
Rotterdam’s 2025 container statistics show a structural reorientation of global trade, with imports rising 3.9% while exports continue to fall, especially to Asia. The export slump has widened the import‑export gap by 1.47 million TEU, increasing empty‑container circulation. Carrier alliance reshuffles...
Ghana’s central bank announced a rebalancing of its international reserves, converting a portion of its gold holdings into foreign exchange. The move follows a Domestic Gold Purchase Programme that lifted gold stocks from 8.7 tonnes to over 40 tonnes, with a 62%...
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
The piece argues that the United States’ recent military actions against Iran are a continuation of a long‑standing American imperial habit that disregards international norms. It frames former President Donald Trump as both a symbol and accelerator of this “late‑imperial...
The looming conflict between Iran and Israel is pushing global oil prices higher, stoking concerns that the United Kingdom’s cost‑of‑living crisis could deepen. Analysts warn that tighter energy markets may lift household electricity and gas bills, while inflationary pressure could...
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index shows global manufacturing activity rose in February, driven by a surge in Asian factories that reached the busiest level since October 2022. North America’s index slipped into negative territory, indicating under‑utilized supplier capacity,...
My full write up on inflation. Important to remember that we can not sustain or obtain full employment unless inflation is detailed. For those arguing the #FOMC should cut to shore up employment and ease inequality. Cuts in late 2024...
OUT NOW - how @JosephEStiglitz sees it: - higher oil & food prices and "Economic Chaos" are serious risks of U.S.-Iran War - "significant probability" AI is in a bubble Apple https://t.co/7Ewtn8N1AT Spotify https://t.co/3AKmC9yw2d YouTube https://t.co/yR3j6zbCrB 1/3 https://t.co/7fTyMMYBkK
The escalating war between Iran and the Taliban‑Pakistan front is jeopardizing Central Asia’s planned southbound trade routes. Ongoing fighting threatens the Uzbekistan‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan railway, the TAPI gas pipeline, and the CASA‑1000 power line, while U.S.–Israel attacks on Iran disrupt shipping and...
The Strait of Hormuz is turning into the key test of strength between the US and Iran. I've been thinking about what happens if it stays closed for an extended period. My conclusions might surprise you. https://t.co/mPXBo8HuqY
March 3, 2026 edition of FFTT: "Iran doesn't need to defeat the US military; just the UST market" March 11, 2026: "S&P has warned that the Middle East conflict is beginning to strain credit channels across multiple sectors" https://t.co/pnftNUeht5
Gasoline prices in the United States jumped from $2.98 to $3.58 per gallon within two weeks, with California hitting $5.40. The surge follows a series of geopolitical shocks tied to former President Trump’s foreign‑policy moves, including renewed sanctions on Russian...
In the first 5 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.1 trillion and spent $3.1 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/nGKPLUJ4vh
and if Israel & US truce depends on Iran pledging no more nuclear program does anyone believe this?
The Trump administration is set to announce new trade investigations under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, targeting practices such as excess manufacturing capacity, forced labor, digital service taxes, and currency manipulation. The inquiries, led by the Office of the...
yes, it did but it was also followed by a complete revolution in how oil prices were set. Before oil companies negotiated a posted price with OPEC. Afterwards OPEC set prices thru production quotas I♥️historical comparisons, but not everything is directly...
Knowing that the Kremlin has sent its political strategists to help him, I’m afraid Orban may soon start pushing even more deranged nonsense, things like a “Ukrainian terrorist attacks” in Hungary or a “Ukrainian assassination attempt” against him.
Guinea, now the world’s largest bauxite producer, is weighing export curbs as a glut has driven prices down roughly 50% since January 2025. Export shipments surged 25% to 183 million tonnes last year, far exceeding licence‑based production plans. The government is...
BNP PARIBAS: “.. We think core #PCE could climb to 3.4% y/y by Q2, a striking implication of the hot PCE-relevant components that complicates the Fed’s policy path. We see upside risk to this estimate if the oil-price shock persists.”...
US price-to-production response is typically ~6 months. In an exceptional situation, like now, maybe we could get that down to ~4 months? But if the Strait is still closed in 4 months the entire global economy is pretty well screwed.
Two Democratic senators, Mark Kelly and Richard Blumenthal, introduced the Gas Prices Relief Act to suspend the 18.4‑cent‑per‑gallon federal gasoline tax until October 1. A companion bill will be filed in the House by Rep. Chris Pappas. The proposal aims to...
CPI Inflation Rose on Food & Energy Prices, even before Gasoline Price Spike. YoY still Pushed Down by Bad-Joke OER. The Bad-Joke of Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER) explained https://t.co/Drnu0dnRE2 https://t.co/nyv8tW3qx5
High oil prices are great for Putin. At $85 per barrel, Urals oil price is now the highest since 2022. High prices also mean the EU's maritime services ban in its 20th sanctions package is dead and pressure in the...
So, now I'm seeing ads for IEEPA tariff refunds and US tariff calculation work. On the one hand, the market works. On the other hand, this is costly and only necessary because of misguided US tariff policy https://t.co/nU32IBGoFO
The Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz could have major supply chain implications. Lisa Anderson explains why this global shipping chokepoint matters—and what manufacturers should be thinking about now. Watch the Supply Chain Byte. #SupplyChain #Geopolitics #Manufacturing https://t.co/hLUT5Rpp0T
No suspense here, seeing as the Treasury Secretary already confirmed that these "investigations" will result in new tariffs. The only question is how USTR will justify the conclusions the White House has already written
Employ America Statement on the Coordinated IEA Release. https://t.co/goQS5uJUUS No stockpile release can compare to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but with the right preparation, there are still ways to make it helpful at the margin. https://t.co/K549sAsIrM
Interview coming out very soon with legendary economist (by some objective measures he is #1 economist of all time) He has severe concerns about an oil shock & stagflation
If governments lean too hard into fuel subsidies this is going to shift from necessary demand destruction to rolling fiscal crises.
Sanctions news: EU is weighing lifting its Russian sanctions against oil trader Niels Troost. Diplomats told the FT the designation of the Dutch trader was "legally weaker" than other listings. Discussions on-going. Decision subject to approval by 17 March https://t.co/JxBkaf5Xzx
OPEC+ crude production rose more than 400 kbpd m/m in February according to just-released OPEC data, with the bulk driven by the ongoing Kazakh recovery. Unfortunately it's immediately worthless given GCC crude exports were throttled immediately thereafter by Iran War. https://t.co/jTQxOjrt4b
for whom?! Iranian tankers shipping Iranian oil? Right now there's a Thai cargo ship on fire off the Coast of Oman that tried to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe ask them if they think its working out "very well"
President Donald Trump said he didn’t believe Iran was laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked Wednesday whether Iran had laid mines in the strait, Trump told reporters, “We don’t think so. Trump also urged oil companies to send their...
Diesel prices for U.S. truckers rose a record 96 cents a gallon this past week, a sign of the financial strains hitting supply chains following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. https://t.co/C9K90LaXGX
“More specifically, this conflict represents a supply shock, not demand driven inflation, which from a monetary policy perspective makes a very significant difference, as a supply shock will reduce demand, consumption, and consequently growth.” - Rieder
Here's monthly seasonally adjusted core. It's been pretty stable for the last three years (perhaps not at the level you'd prefer.) https://t.co/1r4VLXWf1S
The first is interesting here, as the cut-off date was well before the flurry in oil prices. You can basically at this make a reasonable case for anything from 0.1pp to 0.4pp extra on the 2026 headline forecast.
Iran's demand is the U.S. leave the Middle East. Basically, do the pivot to Asia for real.
They think we're stupid. The @WhiteHouse said Iran’s nuclear facilities were "obliterated" in June 2025. Now we're escalating again? Why? And we're expected to finance this spending via inflation? Fiat is perpetual war, debt, and inflation. Opt out. Sell bonds. Buy bitcoin. https://t.co/EUQm4727iz
