Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Samsung Display CEO Chung Yi warned that the Iran‑related oil shock is driving up energy and raw‑material costs for the display maker. He noted that many key inputs, such as polymer films, are derived from crude oil, so price spikes directly affect production expenses. The cost pressure arrives as the tech sector already wrestles with soaring semiconductor prices, tightening margins for smartphones, PCs and other electronics. Samsung Display supplies flat‑panel screens to both Apple and Samsung Electronics, making the issue relevant for flagship devices worldwide.
Trump has a few days to finish the war before oil finishes him, says @JavierBlas That's wrong. This was finished on March 1 when tankers stopped moving through the Hormuz Strait. Trump has a few days to find a way to get...
Grocery prices are climbing faster than last year, according to recent CPI‑food‑at‑home data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a year‑over‑year increase of about 5% in the first quarter of 2024, outpacing the 2023 rate. The Economic Research Service’s forecast...
This is the popular narrative but it's not correct. Inflation de-anchored in the late 1960s under pressure from Great Society & Vietnam spending and Martin acquiescing to LBJ's pressure. Inflation was kept artificially low in the early 1970s by wage...
Swiss shipping giant MSC Group has secured a 45‑year concession to develop a new container terminal at Snake Island Port in Lagos, partnering with Nigerian firm Nigerdock. The engineering, procurement and construction contract was awarded to ITB Nigeria and DEME...
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has launched a historic 400 million‑barrel emergency oil release, the largest in its 52‑year history, after the Strait of Hormuz closure removed roughly 20 million barrels per day from global supply. Brent crude rose $6.50 to $98.68,...
Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, argues that the recent surge in energy prices is boosting Australia’s federal budget while simultaneously eroding household purchasing power. Higher gas prices are expected to lift export earnings and improve the nation’s terms...
In this episode of Peter Lewis' Money Talk, host Peter Lewis talks with Andrew Freris, CEO of Ecognosis Advisory, and Nick Marro, Principal Economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit about the recent fuel subsidy crisis in Vietnam and...
exploding tankers, the us releasing 40% of its remaining oil reserve, and trump bragging about how well things are going: not indications for low oil prices.
The piece argues that geopolitical shocks, while capable of causing short‑term commodity price spikes, do not alter the long‑run pricing trajectory, which is anchored in supply‑demand fundamentals, technological progress, and investment cycles. It cites historical data showing oil, copper and...
A U.S. Supreme Court ruling trimmed the weighted tariff on Chinese goods from 32.4% to 22.3%, creating a temporary reprieve through July. Some exporters, like equipment maker Chen Zhuo, are accelerating shipments to lock in lower duties, while others remain...
Satellite imagery shows China rapidly expanding Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands, deploying more than 30 dredgers and construction vessels. The reclamation effort, the first major South China Sea project since Beijing announced a halt over a decade ago, appears...
“The Federal Government cannot continue to spend more money than it takes in.” - Jimmy Carter (1978) “For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children's future.” - Ronald Reagan (1981) “We must bring the Federal budget...
Have you asked yourself this? “How robust are our operating margins and cash positions if this so-called 2.4% US inflation is merely a lagging indicator, and we’re confronted with a sustained 20% energy cost shock, still-high interest rates, and regulatory upsets...
The Morning Brief podcast examines an unprecedented oil shock triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting more than 10 million barrels of crude per day—about twice the 1956 Suez disruption. With virtually no spare production capacity, Brent crude...
“This war hugely damages U.S. standing in the world, which means that China has much more scope to establish its own standing in the Middle East and the Global South generally,” said Steve Tsang, director of the @SOAS_CI in London. @yarotrof...
We've already lost roughly a quarter *billion* barrels in cumulative oil supply thus far in the Strait of Hormuz stoppage.
Public debt has surged to record levels, while government wage bills remain rigid, averaging 10% of GDP across OECD nations. New research by de Mello and Jalles shows that higher wage‑bill ratios blunt the primary balance response to rising debt, especially...
Oil (white) and the 10yr treasury yield (green) are going in the wrong direction ... up! Wen bailout? https://t.co/BCYqJRrZpQ
The IEA just released 400 million barrels to cover a 20-day shortage. Oil markets are pricing in something longer. Private credit funds are starting to gate withdrawals. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/G7C0qy6noj
Chinese mainland‑listed firms are set to outpace Hong Kong peers in earnings, driven by aggressive overseas expansion and a commodity price boom. Bloomberg estimates the CSI‑300’s average profit growth could hit 6.3 % in 2025 versus just 2 % for the Hang Seng....
hardly the "win" to boast of when the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil markets and everything downstream plus several other key commodities are buckling under extreme strain, the Mideast is on fire, and there is no end in sight...
In case you have not noticed yet, we are reliving the 1970s with interest rates heading higher and commodity prices blasting off In the 1970s U.S. equities rattled back and forth in a 50% range U.S. equities are overpriced now -- but...
The United States has opened a Section 301 investigation into alleged manufacturing overcapacity across 16 trading partners, including China, the EU, Japan, and Mexico. The probe gives the administration authority to impose new tariffs if state‑backed excess production is deemed...
Brent crude #oil is flirting dangerously close to the $100/bbl level once again after two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, underscoring the broader risks to energy assets across the Middle East and overshadowing a record oil release from the...
Crude oil prices rose - feeding inflation fears and punishing the stock market- despite an IEA release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Now what? #crudeoil #oilprices #IranWar #stocks #stockmarket #inflation #macro #trading #dollar https://t.co/jccqS0V3d3
The United States will release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next 120 days, joining a 400‑million‑barrel drawdown coordinated by the International Energy Agency. The emergency release aims to ease the sharp rise in crude prices...
About to jump on CNBC @asiasquawkbox to talk about the Iran War, the Strait of Hormuz, the latest tanker attacks in the Gulf, and tonight’s jump in the price of crude. Tune in! https://t.co/myMaR7VRA7
In case you are wondering why oil prices continued to rise despite the US announcement of a massive SPR release: In the SPR literature, more than 30 years ago, experts warned that announcing an SPR release might signal crisis and cause...
ASEAN negotiators convened in Manila to advance the Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA), refining the draft over three days and targeting a November signing at the ASEAN Summit. The framework is designed to capture Southeast Asia’s projected $2 trillion digital economy...
My take on the MONEY SUPPLY: "The money supply is always the cause of inflation. There are long and variable lags between changes in the money supply and changes in inflation." THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney...
The oil market isn’t clearing Available barrels are being offered at extreme premiums, but refiners are refusing to buy When prices rise this fast, markets freeze. The problem isn’t cost. It’s physical supply. https://t.co/bjYMZAsRUg #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity
Iran has escalated its rhetoric and threats around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG. The move is part of a broader narrative battle with the United States amid the ongoing...
Of course they are. In case anyone thought President Tariffs was actually done with tariffs. But at least 301s have an anchor.
Good morning from Hong Kong. Day 13 of the Iran War. Hormuz effectively closed, impacting not just global energy supply chain but also food and metals. https://t.co/yXfDXHwzMN
South Africa’s foreign ministry summoned U.S. ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III after he labeled the "Kill the Boer" chant hate speech and likened Black Economic Empowerment policies to apartheid. The move underscores a widening diplomatic rift amplified by the Trump...
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 2.87% CPI inflation rate for March, up from 2.4% in February. That will be the 60th consecutive month (5 straight years) with inflation above the Fed's 2% target. There's no way Powell cuts...
“Winning like never before”? Iran keeps exporting oil through Hormuz Saudi, Iraqi, and Gulf supplies stall and global shipping freezes. Control of the chokepoint looks very different from the victory narrative. https://t.co/XWciH00m2o #IranWar #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics
President Trump’s decision to intensify military pressure on Iran sparked a sharp rally in global oil markets, pushing U.S. gasoline prices above $3.50 per gallon for the first time in years. The price surge coincided with the lead‑up to the...
A pretty great conversation with @ed_elson_ and the FT's Katie Martin about what financial markets can tell us at critical moments, and what they're telling us about the war in Iran and America's place in the world. https://youtu.be/Jr7X0tlOl1k?si=9FjFHp0n13n6dPoL
Today the market got exactly what it wanted: inflation right on target at 2.4%. And it still fell. Oil surged 7% to $89.50. Ships were struck near the Strait of Hormuz. The FBI warned about Iranian drone attacks on U.S....
Bond Market: less than 1% probability of a Fed rate cut next week. Lloyd Christmas: so you're telling me there's a chance? https://t.co/29QHtCRSqe
UN Security Council Condemns #Iran Attacks Against Gulf Neighbors The resolution, proposed by Bahrain on behalf of GCC, decried Iran’s retaliation against civilian targets, including energy facilities, as an international law violation. @Magdalena_971 https://t.co/P9t8JHNDMg
Today I learned that Iran's GDP growth rate pre-Islamic revolution was 5%-9% a year, and that's dropped to 2% year in the ensuing 40 years. Iran had been on pace to be a South Korean or Turkey-style developed country before...
U.S. details its participation in the IEA coordinated SPR release. Washington will release 172 million barrels over a 120 day period, equal to a flow of ~1.4 million barrels per day.
Carlyle's Jeff Currie lays out a case for why oil and other commodity prices are heading higher, regardless of the exact outcome of the war in Iran. https://t.co/tMKWpSXhYe
Ocean carriers have been leaving containers bound for Dubai in the port of Salalah, Oman until the Strait of Hormuz reopens. They're regretting that decision right now.
🇧🇷Cargill has paused soybean exports from Brazil to China due to the implementation of stricter sanitary inspections at the request of the Chinese government. https://t.co/75cYy0TIFX
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
Today, Spain PERMANENTLY withdrew its ambassador to Israel. This comes after the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. TRUMP & NETANYAHU ARE COLLECTING ENEMIES BY THE BUSHEL. https://t.co/PfxwQify0D
