Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Philippine planners warn that the Middle East conflict‑driven oil price surge could keep growth under 5% this year. DEPDev modeled two price scenarios—$100/barrel in March rising above $80 through May, and $140/barrel staying above $80 until September—each shaving 0.2‑0.3 percentage points from the 5‑6% GDP target. Higher oil costs push inflation above 4% and could cut remittances by up to 65%, eroding household consumption. The agency now recommends fully suspending fuel excise taxes, a move that could cost the treasury up to ₱106 billion.
The Central Bank of Turkey kept its one‑week repo rate at 37% and left the interest‑rate corridor unchanged at 35.5%‑40%, signaling a pause amid heightened global risk and rising energy prices. In its statement the bank shifted away from an...
China's government set a 2026 growth target of 4.5‑5% after meeting its 2025 goal of 5%. 2025 GDP reached CN¥140.19 trillion ($20.4 trillion), with consumption contributing 52%, investment 15.3%, and exports 32.7% of growth. The economy faces geopolitical tensions and a US‑led...
I think it is a mistake to think that Japanese officials actually defend a fixed USD-JPY level. It makes sense to be cautious about the $USD in general as interest rate differentials have moved against it. It is a...
Donald Trump suggested the US‑Israel conflict with Iran could end soon, but analysts warn the war may linger, keeping oil markets on edge. Prolonged fighting threatens to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, which...
ING commodity strategist Warren Patterson discusses the ongoing oil price volatility, with Brent crude intermittently breaching $100 per barrel despite the International Energy Agency’s announcement of record supply releases. He examines how the conflict with Iran, particularly the strategic choke...
Anglo American rerouted three iron‑ore vessels after the Strait of Hormuz became impassable following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The ships—Cape Shangrila, Cape Jasmine and Mineral Zimbabwe—were diverted to Singapore, Vietnam and China respectively. Vale experienced similar disruptions, sending...
Grocery prices in February rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, reaching a 2.4% year‑over‑year increase for food consumed at home. The uptick coincides with a 0.6% rise in energy costs and a more than 25% surge in urea fertilizer prices, driven by escalating...
Why are oil speculators assuming this war is short and irrelevant? Yesterday I talked to an energy analyst I highly respect, and he waved off the Iran situation. Oil/gas markets are dynamic and flexible, he posited, they can handle it....
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to $54.5 billion in January, a 25 percent drop from December. Exports rose 5.5 percent to $302.1 billion, driven by gold, computers and other precious metals, while imports slipped 0.7 percent to $356.6 billion. The narrowing gap appears amid a tariff...
Major ocean carriers are rerouting Gulf‑bound cargo to land‑based corridors after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed by the ongoing war. Maersk now ships to Salalah, Khor Fakkan and Jeddah, then secures trucking capacity to move goods into the Persian...
...and yet, the Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed, for the 13th day. Why? 🤔 At some point, investors are going to understand why this is; when they do, it is going to be very bad for both stocks AND...
A year after the United States launched its aggressive tariff regime, a Javelin Strategy report finds that global supply chains adjusted faster than anticipated, limiting consumer‑price spikes and product shortages. Low‑margin imports such as electronics, toys and apparel remained stable,...
U.S. military actions in the Middle East have driven Brent crude sharply higher, reviving scrutiny of oil’s influence on broader price levels. Historical FRED data reveal that oil price movements have consistently co‑moved with the Global Food Price Index and...
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February, bringing the year‑over‑year CPI to 2.4% while core inflation held steady at 2.5%. Higher inflation typically pressures discretionary spending more than essential consumer staples, whose demand remains relatively inelastic. In this...
On February 20, 2026 the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump‑era tariffs were not authorized under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and on March 4 the Court of International Trade began liquidating refunds for those duties. The rulings trigger...
Honda announced the cancellation of its three U.S.-made electric vehicles—the Honda 0 SUV, Honda 0 sedan, and Acura RSX EV—after projecting losses of $5.1 billion to $7 billion for the fiscal year. The decision stems from a mix of trade‑war tariffs, the end of the...
Canada’s merchandise trade balance posted a C$3.65 billion deficit in January, far worse than the C$0.9 billion shortfall analysts expected. Exports slipped 4.7% to C$62.48 billion while imports fell 1.1% to C$66.13 billion, with motor‑vehicle and parts shipments plunging 21.2% to $5.4 billion – the...
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion in January, well below the $66.6 billion forecast and the revised $72.9 billion December figure. A surge in gold and other precious‑metal exports contributed roughly $9 billion of the improvement, while imports fell modestly. Capital‑goods exports,...
Technology investment through 2035 will be reshaped by enduring tariffs, fragmented supply chains and tightening infrastructure capacity. Governments are turning tariffs and export controls into permanent industrial tools, forcing chipmakers and device makers to absorb higher, uncertain costs. Simultaneously, AI‑driven...
The U.S. dollar opened the North American session mixed, firming against the euro and pound while slipping against the yen after testing 2026 highs. Technical analysis highlights key support and resistance levels on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY as traders brace...
Carlyle’s Currie warning on the risks of upward pressure on all commodities. Says hoarding can lead to sustained upward pressure and this marks a regime change, not a spike. References post dotcom bubble (China entrance to WTO; gulf war; etc)...
Would like to understand why these tankers are sailing unimpeded. Is it that they are going to China? Is it physically impossible to commandeer these ships like with Venezuela?
U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Wright said Iran‑related naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz will last weeks, not months, and that a U.S. Navy escort for commercial tankers is expected by the end of the month. Washington is working with allied...
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey just jumped to its highest level since Q3/2022. They surveyed 41,700 employers in 42 countries. https://t.co/rs7Dv4XiH6
Trump is a genius He just figured out he f**ked himself. He didn't see that starting a war that the closed the world's most important energy chokepoint might backfire? #IranWar #OilMarkets #GasPrices #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics https://t.co/eqI97IDGLV
A Sprott report warns that 2026 marks the start of a new commodity supercycle centered on critical minerals. Geopolitical de‑globalization, energy security and the AI boom are pushing demand for metals like copper and uranium. The report highlights the Sprott...
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)?...
Gold should be exploding right now. Here's why it isn't Oil +8%. Stocks tanking. USD rising on safe haven flows But gold? Flat Meanwhile Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei says Strait stays closed warns of US military bases attacks Watch what happens next👇...
The Gulf conflict is disrupting trade routes, causing Indian textile exporters to face delays and higher costs. Bhilwara, a major textile hub, now has shipments worth Rs 800‑1,000 crore (US $86‑$108 million) on hold, affecting key markets in the Gulf and Europe. Exporters cite...
Maersk. Treating the Strait as a long-term situation. The length of the war. How it ends? Iran’s position? Undoing the ship mess in the Strait and Persian Gulf?
At some point (idk when) "the Strait is closed/open" is going to be a bit like "we shut down/reopened the economy for covid" -- a binary that glosses over various phases of the process.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics will host a virtual event titled “Can global cooperation survive a fragmenting world?” on March 24, 2026. Communications manager Anjali V. Bhatt will interview senior fellow Kimberly Clausing to examine how the United States’...
U.S. dollar $DXY, volatility $VIX and yields $TNX all rising in tandem > 20-day EMA... https://t.co/Dv49pGJIRC
Consumer Prices in the US rose 4.4% per year over the last 5 years and over 24% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year. https://t.co/yilrof4KhM
Senior economist Olivier Blanchard will discuss Europe’s Eurobonds proposal at a virtual Peterson Institute event on April 14, 2026. He will examine how the bond framework could deepen fiscal integration and address rising defense expenditures. Blanchard also addresses broader challenges...
My take on the CONSEQUENCES of the WAR IN IRAN: "About 33 percent of the world's fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Some people realize this is a BIG DEAL." UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF WAR = HIGHER FOOD PRICES. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney on...
The ‘competition’ between the U.S. and China is over. It’s just a question of the terms they will tolerate us to live by.
The European Union announced it will respond "firmly and proportionately" to any breach of the U.S.-EU trade deal signed at the Turnberry resort. This statement follows the United States' Section 301 investigations that could lead to new tariffs on EU goods....
The WSJ reports that German manufacturing orders fell 11.1% in January compared with the previous month. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA HAVE PROVEN TO BE A DEADLY COCKTAIL FOR GERMANY. https://t.co/sqcs2lQvqA
The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move: The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace...
The escalating Middle‑East conflict is disrupting Karnataka’s textile supply chain, slashing new garment orders by 25‑30% for March 2026 and pushing overall garment exports down 15‑20%. Export shipments worth roughly $2 billion are stranded, while silk demand has slipped 8% and cocoon...
Good point. There s no viable workaround for the Strait of Hormuz. Ships and supply chains are at a standstill.
Iran says it hit an American tanker. If true…. Iraq has spent the last few days upping the danger for ships. The global risk keeps increasing for ships, crew, and cargo. The Strait of Hormuz and no safe movement...
The article argues that the long‑standing US‑UK "special relationship" has morphed into a coercive partnership under Donald Trump, characterized by threats, intimidation, and financial pressure. It cites Trump’s public insults toward Prime Minister Keir Starmer, his warnings about military action...
Oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. The system just had a heart attack. The Iran War could become the most consequential geopolitical blunder by an American president in modern history. LINK👇 https://t.co/Tx2sjAvFjq #IranWar #OilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #GlobalEconomy #OilShock #EnergySystem #SystemicRisk
As Bloomberg notes, the yen has reached levels where Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) and perhaps Secretary Bessent have a choice to make; the yen is clearly in the zone where intervention is a real possibility 1/ https://t.co/gE34g8gEW4
The US‑Israel war against Iran has already rattled global commodity markets, tightening supply chains for oil, fertilizers, chemicals and several metals. BMO Capital Markets notes oil prices spiked toward $120 per barrel before settling near $90, while nitrogen fertilizer costs...
War continues. I am watching the cross asset class correlations. So far, bond yields and oil have moved together on inflation concerns. But eventually high oil prices are negative for growth. When bond yields fall as oil prices rise it’s...
The Central Bank of Solomon Islands (CBSI) announced an accommodative monetary stance for the next six months, introducing a new policy rate of 1.5% as a primary signal to the market. Growth for 2025 was revised up to 3.6% and...
