Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Iran’s Oil Storage Clock Is Ticking Down Fast
Iran’s onshore crude storage is nearing capacity, with Kpler data showing only 12‑22 days of unused space as of April 27‑28, 2026. JPMorgan analysts expect the first production cuts within 15‑16 days and a full export‑equivalent shut‑in by roughly day 30. Societe Generale and Energy Aspects corroborate mid‑May output reductions, while earlier forecasts proved overly optimistic. Once tanks fill, wells will be forced shut, and restarting them could take weeks to months, risking permanent reservoir damage and long‑term output loss.
Did the Economy Actually Get Stronger During the Iran War? Here’s What Th...
U.S. economic activity rebounded in the first quarter of 2026 despite the ongoing Iran war and higher oil prices. Business investment surged 3.3% in March, the strongest back‑to‑back gain since 2017, while core durable‑goods orders jumped 9.5% YoY, the fastest...
Canada Yields Rise Independently of Recent Rate Cuts
when they tell you that Canadian rates (yields) are rising and the @bankofcanada is all to blame, just tell'em they're wrong... 5-year Canada yields bottomed in '20 (like global yields) they spent the past few years consolidating and are now moving...
China Threatens the EU with Broad Retaliation if Huawei and ZTE Are Banned From European Networks
China’s Ministry of Commerce submitted a 30‑page warning to the European Commission, saying the EU’s draft Cybersecurity Act – which would make the removal of high‑risk vendors like Huawei and ZTE mandatory – could trigger reciprocal trade restrictions on European...
Spain: Economic Disaster, Like Trump Says, or a Model for the Civilized World?
Former President Donald Trump labeled Spain’s economy a disaster, but recent data show a different picture. Spain is projected to grow 3.2% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025, outpacing the United States’ growth under both Biden and Trump. The country’s...
Dollar Rise Triggers Endless Loop of Economic Paradoxes
The dollar is rising Why? Because bond yields are going up Why? Because Oil prices are rising Why? Because the UAE left OPEC Why? Because Trump blocked Hormuz Why? Because the dollar is falling Why? Because real interest rates are negative Why? Because inflation is rising Why? Because - Damn it - Don't you get it...
US Sanctions 35 Individuals, Entities To Dismantle Iran's Shadow Banking
On April 28, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned 35 individuals and entities tied to Iran’s clandestine shadow‑banking network. The designations target shell companies, exchange houses and affiliates of Shahr Bank that have moved tens of billions...
Between IMF Conditions and Rising Prices, Is Sri Lanka Heading Toward Stagflation?
Sri Lanka secured a staff‑level IMF agreement that could release about $700 million, but the funds are contingent on reinstating cost‑recovery pricing for fuel and electricity. The government’s move to raise tariffs – a 13.56% request from the Ceylon Electricity Board...
Vietnam at 51: From the Ashes of War to the Arc of a New World Order
April 30 2026 marks 51 years since Saigon fell, highlighting Vietnam’s shift from a war‑torn, centrally planned state to a market‑oriented economy integrated into global supply chains. The Đổi Mới reforms unleashed private enterprise, driving GDP to roughly $514 billion in 2025 and annual growth...
War‑Driven Inflation Undermines BoC Rate Hike Effectiveness
Bank Of Canada: NO CHANGE This was a guaranteed result: there was never a doubt Bank Of Canada: NO CHANGE This was a guaranteed result: there was never a doubt It's so simple, the War In The Middle East creates inflation The BoC...
Chips, Oil and Iran: Why US Is Raising Pressure on China Before Xi-Trump Talks
The United States is intensifying a multi‑front pressure campaign on China ahead of President Trump’s planned mid‑May summit with Xi Jinping. The House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced 20 new export‑control measures that would tighten allies’ sales of advanced semiconductor equipment...
The United States Is Losing the Race for Central Asia’s Critical Minerals
The United States is falling behind in securing Central Asia’s critical‑mineral wealth, a region valued at roughly $46 trillion and home to at least 32 of the 60 U.S.‑identified critical minerals. While China and Russia together command about 70 percent of the...
Ag Groups Tout USMCA at NAFB’s Washington Watch
At the National Agri‑Food Business (NAFB) Washington Watch, leaders from the American Seed Trade Association and the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture highlighted the importance of the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) for U.S. farmers. Andy LaVigne emphasized that the...
OPEC+ Collapse Threatens US Shale with Price Volatility
Au contraire, @WSJ: A fractured or absent OPEC+ is a disaster for the US oil industry and foreign policy. No OPEC+ = Wild Price Volatility = Gut punch for high-cost US shale oil, the first victim when oversupply...
London Stock Exchange Adds First Ukrainian Firms to Reconstruction Fund
The London‑listed HANetf Ukraine Reconstruction UCITS ETF (UKRN) has added its first three Ukrainian companies—drone‑software firm Swarmer, telecom operator Kyivstar, and iron‑ore miner Ferrexpo—marking the inaugural domestic listings in a London‑based fund. The move follows a rebalancing of the EQM...
Reliance on Chinese Green Tech Poses ‘Serious’ Risk for Europe, Experts Say
A new report warns that Europe’s heavy reliance on Chinese green technology poses serious economic and national‑security risks. China provides 98% of the continent’s solar panels, 88% of lithium‑ion batteries and 61% of inverters, creating a vulnerable supply chain. The...
Treasuries Slump as Fed Division Reveals Split on Rate Outlook
The Federal Reserve kept rates steady on April 29, but a clear split emerged among policymakers over the Middle East war’s inflation impact. Treasury yields rose sharply, with the two‑year note hitting 3.94% and the 30‑year approaching 5%. Market pricing...
Russia Says It Has No Plans to Leave OPEC+
Russia’s Kremlin says Moscow will not exit the OPEC+ alliance even after the United Arab Emirates announced its departure effective May 1. The statement, made by spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, underscores that Russia sees no viable path to raise output amid ongoing Ukrainian...
Iran War Is Fueling a Bond Selloff Ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Fin...
Investor anxiety over the Iran war’s oil shock is driving a bond sell‑off as the 10‑year Treasury yield climbed to 4.39%. Elevated crude prices above $109 per barrel have pushed inflation expectations toward 3%, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold...
Gold, Silver Rates Today: Comex Gold Slides $86/Oz, Silver Drops $1.5/oz Ahead of US Fed Decision, Oil Surge
Gold and silver futures on the COMEX fell sharply on April 29, with gold dropping $86 to $4,522 per ounce and silver slipping $1.50 to $71.71, their lowest levels in a month and since early April respectively. The decline was...
Geopolitics, Energy Prices, and Supply Chains Drive Uncertain Path for U.S. Inflation
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, with a 0.9% month‑to‑month gain largely fueled by higher energy costs. The OECD has upgraded its 2026 inflation outlook to 4.2%, well above its prior 2.8% estimate and the Federal Reserve’s 2.7%...
Water Tower's Severson: The Economy Sees $75 Oil 'as the New $60'
In this episode, host Chuck Jaffe talks with Sean Severson, CEO of Water Tower Research, about the emerging "$75 oil" market, which he likens to the former $60 oil era, and how it’s reshaping investor expectations for energy stocks and broader...
US Growth Accelerates; Oil Deal Uncertain, Risk Assets Undervalued
So, I have quite clearly been too optimistic around settling terms with Iran (it admittedly looked like a deal to everyone that Friday a few weeks back), and it seems like both sides think they can afford to be strategically...
Robin Dow to Speak at CMI Summit 5 on the Geopolitics of Phosphate and the Global Fertilizer Crisis
Robin Dow, CEO of Nevada Organic Phosphate Inc., will speak at CMI Summit 5 in Toronto on May 13‑14, 2026, highlighting the growing geopolitical risks to the global phosphate market. He warns that the fertilizer supply chain is overly concentrated in unstable...
Emerging Markets Shift to Gold as Dollar Reserves Shrink
Deutsche’s George Saravelos highlights today that “the share of US dollars in central bank reserves is once more in decline. It has fallen from over 60% to just 40%, while gold’s share has tripled from its lows to 30% today.” And: “...
UAE Leaves OPEC: Strategic Shift Explained
HOT OFF THE PRESS: My interview in @FortuneMagazine with @MrShawnTully, "Take the Money and Run": Why the UAE Quit OPEC https://t.co/VBoanrelVc
Bank of Canada Neutral Hold (2.25%) – USD/CAD Rallies to 1.37 – Press Con...
The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for the fourth meeting since October 2025, reiterating a neutral stance amid a modest economic outlook. It continued to base its forecasts on a C$75‑per‑barrel oil price, roughly US$55,...
Market Eyes Powell's Future at Today's FOMC Meeting
Main thing that's relevant in today's FOMC meeting is any guidance on whether Powell plans to remain as a fed governor or not
Central Banks Maintain Strong Q1 Gold Purchases Despite War
While this captures two months pre war and while gold has likely been a source of funds for some foreign countries post war, central bank buying still strong in Q1. https://t.co/vQDtnkXVdj
Thailand Walked Into Its LNG Trap With Its Eyes Open – Long Before Hormuz
Thailand’s state power utility has spent roughly $2 billion on availability payments to gas‑fired plants that produced little or no electricity over the past three years. Those fixed fees now add about 0.63 baht per kilowatt‑hour to the 2026 tariff, representing almost...
Offshore Dollar Deposits Top $14 Trillion, Dominance Grows
Despite all the noise about de-dollarization, the FT reports that offshore dollar deposits just SURPASSED 14 TRILLION DOLLARS. The dollar is FAR AHEAD of any rival and its lead is INCREASING. KING DOLLAR = REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/A48y0RhHY4
Markets Must Push Harder as US 10‑Year Hits
Markets need to try a lot harder if they want Trump to tap out in Iran. US 10y above 5% and 5-to-10% lower in Spoos, at least ...
Braw in Foreign Policy on Trump’s Iran War and Strains on U.S. Allies’ Arms Exports
Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Transatlantic Security Initiative, warned in a Foreign Policy piece that the United States’ escalating war with Iran is forcing Washington to divert weapons earmarked for allies. This reallocation is creating shortages and delays in...
Apple’s Stalling Scheme Collapses, EU Regulators Remain Paralyzed
EU regulators are currently paralyzed into inaction as Apple manipulates US trade relations to discourage Europe from enforcing its own competition law. Thankfully, Apple’s attempt to stall the US law enforcement process with frivolous appeals has collapsed yesterday.
Iran War Shock Trades Hurt US Asset Positions
If you're expressing Iran war shock trades in US related assets, you're gonna have a bad time
DP World Scales up Inland Transport to Support India-UAE Trade
DP World has increased its inland logistics capacity to 1,500 trucks per day, moving bonded cargo from UAE ports such as Khor Fakkan and Fujairah toward India. The company is prioritising food, pharmaceuticals and other critical goods, adding cold‑chain infrastructure to...
Treasuries Near Multi-Year Breakdown Ahead of Powell's Final FOMC
$TLT Weekly. Headed into Powell's final FOMC, Treasuries on brink of not just multi-month breakdown but multi-year as well. Bear flag threat here, which means risk of rates spiking higher yet https://t.co/BKBIEADTxm
Reversing Inflation: A Disastrous Lesson From Japan
Absolute clown show on BTV: "I believe we should not just slow but reverse inflation." Worked well for Japan, Neil.
Scoop: Trump Huddles with Oil Execs as Iran Stalemate Drags On
President Donald Trump convened a meeting at the White House with top oil and gas executives, including Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, to address the energy fallout from the ongoing Iran conflict. Attendees also included senior White House staff and Treasury...
New Financial Crisis Looms, Different From 2008
Why would anyone expect a similar crisis? BBC: "A fresh financial crisis may be coming - it won't play out like the last one" https://t.co/L8Q709Yh4N
USDCAD Reflects Negative Yield Spread Despite Higher US Rates
Even though the US benchmark rate is ~150 basis points higher than the Canadian benchmark, the 2-year to benchmark yield spread between the US and Canada is -0.53% (-53 bps). $USDCAD vs that premium differential: https://t.co/hp6WgKtRCI
Tariff Uncertainty Isn’t Over: What the Real Estate Industry Needs to Know
Recent Supreme Court rulings have lifted some tariffs, but many duties on construction inputs like steel and aluminum persist under other trade statutes. The real‑estate sector continues to face volatile material costs, extended lead times, and shifting procurement terms that...
Global Trade Grows by Shifting Partners Amid US Tariffs
"Despite tariffs, global trade keeps growing – just with new partners" https://t.co/BTzpU1aCMo "The US is a problem, but hey, let’s expand trade with each other and with the rest of the world... And this is exactly what we did.” https://t.co/RscZQUE96M
German Finance Minister Doesn’t Rule Out Emergency Borrowing as ‘Trump’s Irresponsible War’ Bites
German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil warned that Germany will need unprecedented borrowing over the next four years, with a budget plan calling for €200 billion ($215 billion) next year and €600 billion ($645 billion) over the following three years. About €85 billion ($91 billion) will be...
35% of US Tariffs Evaded in 2025, $107 B Lost
New report claims ~35% of US tariffs ($107B) were dodged in 2025: "the steep increase in tariffs and the on-again, off-again nature of the tariff rollout created incentive and opportunity for businesses to find ways to reduce their duty burden" https://t.co/d21nSCyckZ
Hope Beneath the Headlines
RiverFront Investment Group’s April 2026 Chart Pack notes that the Iran‑driven oil shock pushed Brent above $100 per barrel, prompting a modest S&P 500 pullback while the Fed left rates unchanged. Despite the geopolitical turbulence, the United States’ heightened energy independence has...
US Bloc Decries China’s Pressure on Panama‑Flagged Ships
US-Led Bloc Condemns China Pressure on Panama-Flagged Ships. Maritime and ports—now part of geopolitics. https://t.co/OUBgxoQL4i
Why Did the UAE Leave OPEC?
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC effective May 1, framing the decision as a policy move designed to limit disruption for producers and consumers. Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said the timing minimizes price impact and aligns with rising...
Global Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs, Lifting US Rates
Global bond yields still a story. 10 yr JGB yield at 29 yr high, German 10 yr bund yield at 15 yr high, and 10 yr gilt yield at 16 yr high today. Dragging up US long end yields.
Bank of Canada Makes Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada left its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as inflation rebounded to 2.4% in March, driven by a spike in energy prices linked to the US‑Israeli conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Unemployment held steady...