Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
The Day of No More Triffid Testing Protocol Arrives
The EU will end its mandatory sampling and testing protocol for Canadian flax on May 1 2026, removing a non‑tariff barrier that has existed since a 2009 discovery of trace CDC Triffid DNA. The protocol, introduced after the unauthorized GMO was found, required costly checks on every shipment, yet Canadian labs have reported no Triffid‑positive results in 13 years. In 2024 Canada formally requested the protocol’s removal, paving the way for smoother access to the high‑value European market. Last year, EU flax imports from Canada were worth about $54 million USD, part of roughly $170 million USD in global flax exports.
Powell’s Final Fed Meeting May Raise Guidance, but Influence Wanes
The Fed meeting is approaching, and Powell might raise guidance; we'll see. It's his last Fed meeting, so his stance won't carry as much weight. #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy #realestate #housing
The Global Economic Impact From the Iran Conflict
The IMF has lowered its 2026 global growth outlook to 3.1% from 3.4% as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, pushing oil prices toward $100‑$110 a barrel. In its adverse scenario, world growth could slip to 2‑2.5% with inflation edging...
Iran War Marks Trump’s First Major Economic Downturn
the iran war is the first time of trump’s presidency—in either term—that he is responsible for a major economic downturn. i don’t see any capacity (and, for now, even any intent) to turn this around before midterm elections in november.
Shipping Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Remains at a Trickle
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to roughly six vessels in the past 24 hours, a stark contrast to the pre‑conflict average of 125‑140 daily passages. The limited transits, primarily dry‑bulk carriers and the sanctioned chemical tanker Vast Plus,...
Trump Discussed Extended Blockade With Oil Executives
President Donald Trump met with top oil executives, including Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, to discuss extending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. The White House gathering also featured leaders from Trafigura, Vitol, Mercuria, Vice...
There’s Upward Pressure on Interest Rates With a Slight Bias for Fed Hikes
The market’s FedWatch data shows a modest bias toward rate hikes, with the most likely outcome being a 3.50‑3.75% target in April 2027 (67.6% probability). A recent 8‑basis‑point shift from a cut bias to a hike bias coincides with a...
Current Growth Trajectory Paves Way for India to Be a Developed Nation by 2047: Jeffrey D Sachs
Renowned economist Jeffrey D. Sachs told a FICCI event that India could become a developed nation by 2047 if its current growth trajectory continues. He urged New Delhi to maintain a non‑aligned stance, avoiding participation in the US‑led Quad and steering...
Govt Develops Export Monitoring Framework to Meet FY31 $2 Trillion Export Target
India’s Department of Commerce unveiled an Export Monitoring Framework that breaks the $2 trillion export goal for FY31 into sector‑specific actions across engineering, textiles, electronics, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and services. The plan ties supply‑side and demand‑side initiatives to clear key performance indicators...
Inside the Fed's Balance Sheet
A new video and podcast interview with finance professor Darrell Duffie examines the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Duffie draws on his recent paper to explain how the Fed’s roughly $8 trillion asset base shapes the U.S. payments system and monetary policy....
Armed with Govt Missive, India’s APEDA Poised to Take up GMO Rice Issue with China
India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) has received an official memorandum from the Environment Ministry confirming that no genetically modified (GM) rice is approved for cultivation in India. The memo, backed by the Genetic Engineering Appraisal...
Aviation Sector Hit by War-Driven Fuel Shock and Network Disruption
The 2026 Iran conflict has sent jet fuel prices soaring to nearly twice pre‑war levels and forced the closure of airspace across Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE, prompting more than 52,000 flight cancellations. Global airline equities have shed...
Fed Likely Mirrors BoC, Holds Steady Amid Oil Shock
For clues on how Warsh Fed might deal with the oil shock, how looking North? That's because not only is Canada a net exporter of oil, Bank of Canada's Tiff Macklem's core philosophy on monetary policy has some overlap...
FOMC Preview
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at the 3.5‑3.75% target range as the Middle‑East conflict drags on, keeping oil prices about 7% higher than in March. Inflation forecasts have been nudged upward while economic activity...
Oil Traders Lawyer Up as Hormuz Disruptions Trigger Billions of Dollars in Disputes
Oil traders are entangled in multi‑billion‑dollar disputes after the Iran‑Israel war shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving contracted Murban crude shipments undelivered. Shell is suing PetroChina's unit for roughly $35 million over a 500,000‑barrel cargo that arrived at only 62,000 barrels,...
India Aims for $2 Tn Total Exports by FY31 with an MSME, Agri Push
India has set an ambitious goal to lift total exports to $2 trillion by FY31, splitting the target evenly between merchandise and services. Exports already hit a record $860.1 billion in FY26, with merchandise at $441.78 billion and services at $418.31 billion. The government...
China Expands Global Supply‑Chain Hub Role with New Marine Engine and Logistics Push
China announced a series of moves to deepen its integration into worldwide industrial networks, from delivering the nation’s first ammonia‑fueled low‑speed marine engine to expanding freight‑train and air‑cargo routes. The initiatives signal a strategic shift from pure manufacturing to a...
Strait of Hormuz Nears Third Month of Closure
A Japan‑linked VLCC, Idemitsu Maru, successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz carrying roughly 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, marking the first non‑Iranian tanker to leave the region in ten days. The waterway’s effective closure, now in its third month, has halted...
Fed Refines Max Employment Metric; Warsh’s Critique Remains Vague
Over the past 20 years, the Fed has been building a more rigorous understanding of what maximum employment means and how to pursue it. As he is about much of what the Fed does, Warsh is a vocal critic...
Will Rising Fossil Fuel Prices Boost Battery Tech Investing?
Rising fossil‑fuel prices are prompting investors to look toward battery‑technology assets, a trend highlighted in VettaFi’s recent webcast. Speakers outlined a "triple demand" thesis: expanding global EV adoption, a metals super‑cycle, and rapid battery‑storage cost declines. The BATT...
Brent Oil Tops $118 After Trump Says He Will Blockade Iran Until It Agrees to a Nuclear Deal
Oil prices surged over 6% on Wednesday as President Donald Trump announced a U.S. naval blockade of Iran until Tehran agrees to a nuclear deal. Brent crude rose to $118.33 per barrel and WTI to $106.37, reflecting heightened fears of...
Trump Weighs Long Iran Blockade as Oil Market Fears Grow
President Donald Trump met with U.S. oil executives to discuss how to blunt the impact of a potential months‑long blockade of Iran’s ports, a move aimed at forcing Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The discussion covered production levels,...
RBI Launches 3 Key Surveys for Monetary Policy Input
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has launched the May 2026 rounds of three surveys—household inflation expectations, rural consumer confidence, and urban consumer confidence—to feed data into its monetary‑policy framework. The inflation expectations survey covers 19 major cities and captures households’...
Germany's April Inflation Barely Rises, Core Dip Temporary
Germany’s #inflation edged up only slightly in April, rising from 2.7% to 2.9%, mainly driven by higher energy prices. So far, there are no clear signs that these higher energy costs are feeding through more broadly into other prices. Core...
Australia's CPI Jumps to 4.6% as Energy Shock Fuels RBA Rate Hike Odds
Australia's consumer price index surged to 4.6% year‑over‑year in March, the highest reading since September 2023, driven by a 32.8% jump in fuel prices. The data has pushed market expectations for a third consecutive RBA cash‑rate increase to around 75%,...
IFC Report Says Morocco’s Private Sector Holds Back Growth, FDI at 1.3% of GDP
The International Finance Corporation’s latest report finds Morocco’s private sector is failing to unlock its full potential, keeping GDP growth near 3% and foreign direct investment at only 1.3% of GDP. The analysis points to a split between large exporters...
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Flags Imminent Global Bond Crisis
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned at Norway’s sovereign wealth fund conference that soaring government debt worldwide could trigger a bond market crisis. He cited geopolitical tensions, oil price volatility and widening deficits as risk drivers, and said the market...
UAE’s May 1 Exit Cripples OPEC+ Quota System, Fuels Oil Volatility
The United Arab Emirates announced it will quit OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance on May 1, ending nearly six decades of membership and stripping the cartel of its third‑largest producer. Analysts warn the move will erode spare capacity, lift the risk...
Stalled Iran Peace Talks Push Brent Above $112, Drag Asian Stocks Lower
Oil prices rose to around $112 a barrel after Iran‑war peace negotiations stalled, while Asian equity markets posted mixed but overall weaker performance. The deadlock keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, raising energy costs for import‑dependent economies such as Japan.
Without Supply Discipline, US Shale Faces Price Collapse
In 2015 OPEC failed to do what swing producers had done since 1932 - cut under a surplus. It allowed a glut to form. In 2020, OPEC+ disunity and ramp to max exacerbated the demand collapse. In both cases...
The Coming Oil Shock | Anchor Watch
Retired Navy Commander Bobby Jones warns that an oil shock is already unfolding, not a future threat. He blames the ongoing war in Iran—described as a needless venture without clear goals—and President Trump’s faltering diplomatic efforts for the imminent surge...
West Asia War, Weak Monsoon Pose Downside Risk to Growth, Says Finance Ministry
India’s finance ministry warned that the ongoing West Asia conflict and a potentially weak monsoon pose upside inflation risks and could dampen growth. Crude oil prices have hovered near $115 a barrel, feeding higher energy costs that may be passed...
Yen Breaches 160/$: Markets Test Policy Limits
It's not just oil, UK yields, etc... In fact, the pace is starting to feel a little relentless as markets blow through what I regard as various "pay attention" levels. This includes the breach of 160 ¥/$ (CNBC chart below)....
Nervous Market Stagnates Amid Energy Crisis and Stagflation
Nervy equilibrium here ... no one wants to sell, let alone short, equities and risk being caught out by a TACO ... in the meantime the global energy structure is reeling and the macro outlook is sinking deeper into a...
Amazon’s Satellite Internet Unit Kuiper Seeks Kenya Licence After Nigeria Approval
Amazon’s satellite internet arm, rebranded as Amazon LEO, has filed for a Network Facilities Provider Tier‑2 licence in Kenya, following a seven‑year licence win in Nigeria. The Kenyan licence costs about $115,000 upfront, runs for 15 years and requires at...
Fed's Next Move: Markets See Zero Uncertainty
The Fed announces its next rates decision in half an hour, and there is exactly ZERO uncertainty about what it won't do (at least according to Fed Funds futures markets). https://t.co/Ikedm6uh6c
China's Overinvestment Fuels Tech and Infrastructure Success
My latest piece for Carnegie, in which I argue that the story of Chinese systematic overinvestment is fully consistent with the seemingly contradictory story of its technological achievements and great infrastructure. https://t.co/YkSsd4R8s5
ADB Cuts Growth Outlook of Asia to 4.7% as West Asia Disruptions Deepen
The Asian Development Bank lowered its 2026 growth outlook for Asia and the Pacific to 4.7%, down from 5.1%, citing prolonged disruptions in West Asia that are driving higher energy prices and tighter financial conditions. Inflation expectations were sharply revised...
Shipping Crisis Peaks: UN Tensions, $4M Panama Toll
Global Shipping Crisis: From UN Pirate Accusations to the Record $4M Panama Toll 1⃣Freedom of Navigation & UN Debate 2⃣IMO MEPC 84 & the Carbon Tax Clash 3⃣Container Sector & Schedule Reliability 4⃣Oil, LNG and UAE's OPEC Exit 5⃣Dry Bulk, Panama Canal Delays & the...
Fed Policy Shift Looms: Free Full Analysis
The Daily Feather — A Change is Gonna Come — FREE in FULL https://t.co/MtgdpJJsUL #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy https://t.co/67BwUvZ0dD
U.S. Gas Prices Climb Further as Effects of Iran War Reverberate
Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday as the war in Iran continued to disrupt Persian Gulf energy supplies. Brent crude jumped to about $109 a barrel for July delivery, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose above $105 a barrel for...
Higher Energy Costs Slightly Boost US Import Prices
"Our analysis shows that a 10% increase in local energy prices in a given country tends to raise US non-energy import prices from that country by about 0.5%." - GS
USD/JPY Poised for Yearly High Amid Fed Outlook
Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Bulls Eye Yearly High- Fed on Tap https://t.co/ccyORpFfkx $USDJPY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/E5R5glIagQ
U.S. Treasury Yields Hit Highest Levels Since March as Oil Surges
U.S. Treasury yields surged to their highest levels this month as oil prices spiked following the U.S. attack on Iran, eroding market hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The two‑year note rose to about 3.90% and the 30‑year approached 5%,...
Trump Plans Extended Iran Blockade, Shields US Consumers
President Trump discussed steps the US could take to prolong its blockade of Iran during a meeting w/ oil &trading industry executives Tuesday. Talks covered how to continue the blockade for months if needed while minimizing impacts on US consumers. https://t.co/ZSMRTr0P6N
Goldman Sachs: Non‑US Economies Face Greater Middle East Trade Risk
"Other Economies Are Much More Exposed to the Disruption of Trade with the Middle East Than the US" - GS https://t.co/ITX9QcNTWV
Spain Seeks ECB Board Seat, Not for Cuerpo
Cuerpo says Spain wants an ECB board seat, but it won’t be for him https://t.co/CTzpWUPcjU via @flacqua @basteiro https://t.co/L5JRxkNcxq
No Fed Dot Plot—FOMC Statement Takes Center Stage
There's no Fed dots today, which means that until Powell's last (and 64th—but who's counting) press conference at 2:30 pm, it's just the FOMC statement to do the heavy lifting. Here's what I'm watching: https://t.co/8sdY0wHDV8
Iran War Pushes Fed Cuts Out Past 2027
Almost three Fed rate cuts have been priced out from July 2027 meeting since beginning of Iran war. The chart below shows the implied rate for July 2027; source: Bloomberg https://t.co/sZt0N3IHO2
Venezuela and North Korea Lead Global Inflation Surge
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 534.9%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 229.9%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 112.3%/yr 🇸🇩Sudan— 63.4%/yr 🇸🇾Syria — 45.2%/yr https://t.co/X6VMtDAGGw