Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The UK’s economy started 2026 sluggishly, with January’s GDP unchanged from December as administrative support services and hospitality contracted sharply. While three‑month averages suggest modest growth, the data’s volatility raises uncertainty about the near‑term trajectory. A sustained rise in gas and oil prices is set to push headline inflation toward a 3.5% peak this summer, eroding real incomes. Consequently, the Bank of England faces a high bar for any rate hike, and a March rate cut now appears unlikely.
Iran has systematically transformed the Strait of Hormuz into a de‑facto geopolitical checkpoint, deploying naval mines, missile batteries and heightened patrols to control one of the world’s most vital oil arteries. The move coincides with escalating regional tensions and a...
Germany’s industrial heartland in Baden‑Württemberg is experiencing a sharp decline, with trade‑tax revenues halving and major manufacturers cutting thousands of jobs. The article attributes the downturn to aggressive green policies and state subsidies that divert capital from private investment. Election...
The FTSE 100 fell as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, driven by heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s new supreme leader vowed to keep the waterway blocked. UK economic data showed flat growth in January,...
Analysts at Bank of America and S&P Global argue that accelerating AI and robotics adoption in China, South Korea and Japan can cushion the economic drag of rapidly ageing societies. These economies already boast robot densities far above the global...
Taking action on fuel prices Oil price profiteering will not be tolerated, says Miliband https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk83e2g65no
Hong Kong lawmakers are pressing the government to curb soaring fuel prices that have risen sharply since the Middle East conflict began in late February. Esso’s standard petrol is up 6.4% to HK$23.43 per litre, while Sinopec’s price has jumped...
The 1973 oil shock forced Europe to choose between quick fixes and systemic change, and a few nations seized the moment to build lasting clean‑energy foundations. Denmark turned the crisis into a wind‑power boom, the Netherlands institutionalised cycling infrastructure, France...
Indonesia’s new Agreement on Reciprocal Trade exempts U.S. firms from the country’s local‑content requirements (LCRs), a policy originally designed to boost domestic manufacturing. The article argues that LCRs alone have not moved Indonesia’s manufacturing share beyond 18‑19 percent and that without...
Thailand’s commerce ministry has created a high‑level task force to counter new USTR investigations under Section 301, which target excess capacity in autos, auto parts, machinery and rubber. The United States highlighted a $51 billion trade surplus in Thailand’s favour, up from...
Your bank account is a war zone and you're losing the fight. What’s going on? 1. Fertilizer supply chains are dead. 2. Your dream home just got more expensive. 3. Global shipping is a total mess. 4. Oil prices are nuking the economy. 5. Inflation is...
"There is no reason, whether or not Trump declares that war is over, to think that Iran will not continue for some time to threaten to destroy the ships that try. Why should they stop?" --- Exactly, Trump cannot TACO. If he...
The Iran‑Iran war has turned the Suez‑Oman shipping corridor into a high‑risk, high‑cost route, pushing container freight from $2,000 to $10,000. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving volatile oil and gas prices, while broader supply‑chain bottlenecks are...
Kenyan banks with subsidiaries in South Sudan are contesting a new recapitalisation directive that raises the minimum paid‑up capital for foreign banks to $20 million by end‑2025, $25 million by June 2026 and $30 million by the end of 2026. The Bank of South...
Bangladesh’s economic lifeline to the Gulf hinges on 3 million migrant workers and $24 billion in annual remittances. Recent Iranian missile and drone attacks across GCC airspace have heightened security risks for these expatriates. The government is weighing a neutral diplomatic stance...
The Trump administration launched a sweeping trade investigation into forced‑labor policies across 60 economies, aiming to revive a global tariff system previously blocked by the Supreme Court. The probe targets the legal frameworks governing forced labor in exported goods, not...
Ethiopia announced a special fuel subsidy to blunt the impact of soaring global oil prices after the Strait of Hormuz closure. The government lifted diesel subsidies to 98 birr per litre and petrol subsidies to 73.56 birr, keeping domestic prices below $1...
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, still recovering from a U.S. strike, declared that Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, leaving roughly 1,000 vessels stranded in the Gulf. While the closure is driven by political retaliation, insurers have confirmed that...
China’s foreign ministry condemned the United States’ newly announced trade investigation into excess capacity as political manipulation, while the U.S. Trade Representative positioned the probe as a tool to protect American firms after a Supreme Court ruling nullified prior tariffs....
Former President Donald Trump announced a temporary suspension of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, aiming to flood the market with cheaper crude and curb the surge that pushed Brent toward $100 a barrel. The move follows recent U.S. military actions...
Barry Eichengreen’s new book *Money Beyond Borders* traces the rise and fall of global currencies from ancient coinage to modern digital assets, using history to assess the U.S. dollar’s waning dominance. He argues that geopolitical tensions, mounting U.S. debt, and...
In this episode of New World Next Week, James Corbett and James Evan Palato dissect the escalating oil crisis triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, highlighting how the Strait of Hormuz closure has forced Asian nations like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and others...
Oil prices rebounded to roughly $100 a barrel, dragging U.S. equities and bonds lower as the conflict between Israel, the U.S., and Iran intensifies. The S&P 500 has slipped 4.4% from its January 27 peak and the Nasdaq 6.4% from...
Rising energy costs are pushing nitrogen fertilizer prices higher as natural gas, the primary feedstock for the Haber‑Bosch process, spikes. The price surge cascades through urea, ammonium nitrate and ammonia, inflating the entire fertilizer supply chain. Higher input costs translate...
The episode examines how a sudden oil price shock from Middle East tensions is reigniting dual risks in commercial real estate: sticky inflation and slowing growth. Stephen Bushbaum explains that this volatility is likely to tighten financing conditions, widen credit...
India has quietly revised Press Note 3, easing restrictions on Chinese capital in the country’s startup and technology sectors while keeping telecom and security‑sensitive areas closed. The amendment comes as foreign direct investment has plateaued and institutional investors have withdrawn billions,...
The Reserve Bank of India has drafted a rule requiring foreign‑bank branches in India to report all non‑deliverable forward (NDF) contracts to the Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. The proposal mandates disclosure of notional values, counterparties, maturities and settlement dates,...
⚠️Broad money supply in developed countries is surging: Broad money across advanced economies rose to a record $74.1 trillion in 2025. This comes after a massive +25% surge during 2020–2022 before growth eased back to trend. It has risen over $50 trillion since...
THB has weakened the most in Asia since the Iran War & the reason being is that it has the highest deficit of energy trade in Asia as a share of GDP. Korean won is second.
Recent data show the US labor market losing momentum while consumer spending eases, indicating a cooling domestic economy. Simultaneously, heightened tensions with Iran have pushed oil prices higher, adding inflationary pressure. Legal challenges over tariff revenue and growing Wall Street...
By 2022, the cumulative text of the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions reached about 14 million words, with increasingly technical jargon to describe the growing web of cross-border tools. https://t.co/YN9GeT7uhG
President Trump’s rhetoric about a possible acquisition of Canada and escalating trade tensions led to a 25% decline in Canadian visits to the US in 2025. https://t.co/dqBIGoRt7G
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a short‑term general licence that lets countries buy Russian crude already stranded at sea, aiming to ease the price surge triggered by the U.S.-Israel‑Iran conflict. The licence covers oil loaded onto vessels by March 12...
The Phillips curve in the euro area remains statistically significant but is relatively flat and linear once regional data on unemployment are used, and it becomes even flatter when national inflation expectations are properly accounted for. https://t.co/tBUWZAT6n4
Before 2020, the monthly frequency of price changes was stable at around 8.2% across 9 major euro countries. It then rose sharply in 2022, averaging about 12% that year and peaking at 15.7% in January 2023, nearly double the pre-pandemic...
AUD/USD dropped more than 1% from its multi‑year peak as the U.S. dollar rallied on heightened safe‑haven demand. Inflation expectations in Australia rose to 5.2%, prompting markets to price a 78% chance of a 25‑basis‑point RBA hike at the March...
“Trump’s choices are pushing Russia into unprecedented vassalage to China. Energy trade in renminbi, sanctions and China’s industrial dominance will leave the Kremlin with few options but to crawl even further into Beijing’s pocket,” writes @AlexGabuev https://t.co/ZQonXr6p8v
Global shocks now account for about half of the variation in interest rates, more than double their role in earlier decades. https://t.co/a8Dhi9Gxpu
Across the OECD, the government wage bill has hovered around 10% of GDP and roughly one-fifth of total employment, showing only limited reaction even to major shocks such as the global crisis and the pandemic https://t.co/mvfQpLWvjt
Nice chat with @julesaly looking at how the surge in crude oil is shaping price action in bonds, the US dollar, and the S&P 500. Today on @ausbiztv: https://t.co/8j3fNOcH2C
War in Iran Oil up nearly 70% YTD Software stocks crashed Private credit imploding Legit chance of no cuts this year Inflation set to surge Yields globally moving higher S&P 500 down only 2.5% this year
Trump admin picks another fight: “forced-labor” accusations as means to a tariff end. ❌ Section 301 permits the U.S. to impose tariffs on countries found to have engaged in unfair trade practices without congressional authorization. https://t.co/4pSaGKCo2K
Energy Expert Anas Alhajji Reveals Truth Of Hormuz Closure, Says 'India ... https://t.co/dGuOAIsElS via @YouTube
Iran CAN DESTROY The World's Economy - Anas Alhajji On Iran War Economics https://t.co/U6Tx5l7AlH via @YouTube
US issues 30-day waiver -- to all countries -- to buy Russian oil that was already on tankers as of March 12. https://t.co/Qrk6IGKEwh
How does the US not plan on the closing of the Strait of Hormuz when it executes a multi-week bombing campaign against Iran. https://t.co/PD1g7fvdte
I kid you not... The same White House that forgot that didn't realize that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, is now arguing (through Ron Vara) that the war is a good idea because it'll prevent Iran from closing...
The S&P 500 is down just 4.4% from its January high while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Israeli officials say Iran's regime isn't likely to fall soon. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/FqwpWIZsQj
Iran Is Winning, Which Is Dangerous 💫Odd Man Out 💫Confirmed Bear 💫Higher Oil, Higher Dollar 💫Higher Oil, Higher Yields 💫Higher Oil, Higher USDJPY 💫Higher Oil, Higher Inflation Expectations 💫Higher Oil, Lower AI Investment 💫Higher Oil, Lower Markets https://t.co/WEe7RNmgRh
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
