Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
India became the United States' top supplier of cotton products in 2025, overtaking China for the first time in recent years. The USDA reports that India shipped roughly 0.6 million metric tonnes, while China delivered about 0.5 million tonnes, out of total U.S. cotton imports of 3.3 million tonnes. India's advantage stems from a vertically integrated textile sector and robust domestic cotton production. Shifts in U.S. importer sourcing strategies accelerated the realignment, reducing China's market share across apparel and home‑textile categories.
U.S. Trade Representative Joseph Barloon rejected the draft WTO reform plan presented by a Norway‑led group, calling the language ambiguous and the discussions insufficiently mature. The refusal comes ahead of the WTO trade ministers’ meeting in Cameroon scheduled for March 26‑29,...
Good Morning from Germany, where economic forecasts are turning increasingly stagflationary amid the conflict in the Middle East. The Ifo Institute has lowered its growth forecast for Germany for 2026 from 1% to 0.8% and raised its inflation projection from...
The fifth meeting of the UK‑EU Trade Specialised Committee on Customs Cooperation and Rules of Origin was held on 16 October 2025 and the minutes were published on 13 March 2026. Delegates reviewed progress on customs valuation, intellectual‑property enforcement, and the administration of rules...
India’s foreign‑exchange reserves dropped to $716.81 billion for the week ended March 6, a decline of $11.68 billion from the prior week—the steepest fall in more than a year. The Reserve Bank of India sold roughly $6.1 billion of dollars to defend the rupee...
Rob Jetten leads the Netherlands’ first minority coalition, formed by D66, CDA and VVD, holding only 66 of 150 parliamentary seats. The government’s agenda emphasizes a stronger European pillar within NATO, a 3.5% of GDP defence spending target, and joint...
The Reserve Bank of India purchased a record 572.10 billion rupees (about $6.2 billion) of government bonds in the week ending 6 March, marking its third straight week of net buying. The purchases are part of a broader liquidity infusion strategy aimed at...
Brazil announced a provisional measure that eliminates federal PIS and Cofins taxes on diesel for domestic consumption while imposing a 12% export tax on crude oil and a 50% levy on diesel shipments. The move, driven by soaring crude prices...
Just In: PCE Inflation was 2.8% in January, a bit below expectations. But Core PCE Inflation was 3.1%, the highest since March 2024. **PCE Inflation could easily hit 4% this spring due to the war in Iran** It's notable that PCE...
Canada’s labour market contracted in February 2026, with Statistics Canada reporting a loss of 84,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.7%. The decline was driven by a 47,000‑job drop among youth and a 41,000‑job loss among men aged 25‑54,...
In a recent interview with Adam Taggart, the author warned that market optimism masks deepening fragilities, especially in private credit. He highlighted rising redemptions and gating in private credit funds as a precursor to a broader credit event. While equity...
A Russian LNG tanker, the Arctic Metagaz, was struck by Ukrainian naval drones and left drifting in the Mediterranean between Italy and Malta. The vessel’s 30 crew were evacuated, and while the hull remains afloat, the amount of LNG on board...
Canada escaped inclusion in the Trump administration's latest Section 301 tariff investigations, even as Washington revamps its trade‑war toolkit after a Supreme Court setback. The U.S. has imposed interim 10% tariffs under Section 122, with a potential rise to 15% before a...
The article argues that the West is ill‑prepared for a modern war economy, especially in critical‑metal supply chains. It highlights that the United States has produced virtually no tungsten or antimony in the past year, while the EU retains a...
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection is near‑completion of CAPE, a new module within the ACE platform that will let importers electronically claim refunds on duties imposed under IEEPA. The USTR has launched a Section 301 investigation into alleged overcapacity in...
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) trimmed its 2025‑26 cotton import forecast to 47 lakh bales, down three lakh from the earlier 50‑lakh estimate, citing higher international prices, a weaker rupee and rising freight costs. Despite the cut, imports remain above...
U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gor announced that India and the United States are on the brink of finalising a critical minerals agreement, with a major public announcement expected within months. The pact is designed to shore up supply chains for advanced...
Rep. Elise Stefanik introduced the Trucking Security and CCP Disclosure Act of 2026, mandating that every carrier in the Department of Defense freight chain certify it has no ownership or control ties to Chinese military‑linked entities. The bill creates a...
Nigeria’s central bank, under new governor Olayemi Cardoso, has shifted back to orthodox monetary policy after a period of development‑bank‑style interventions. Since taking office in October 2023, Cardoso led a tightening cycle that pushed the policy rate to a record...
Egypt raised domestic fuel prices by 14‑17% after the Strait of Hormuz closure, prompting immediate transport fare hikes and higher food costs for ordinary Egyptians. The surge in energy prices has accelerated inflation, with staple items like bread and tomatoes...
The post argues that the United States should prioritize domestic oil and gas, especially Canadian supplies, over reliance on China for energy security. It highlights how Middle‑East conflicts, such as the recent Iran war, make imported crude volatile. The author...
Italy's industrial production in January 2026 slipped 0.6% month‑on‑month, extending a downturn. Year‑on‑year output also fell 0.6%, reversing a modest 2.7% gain recorded in December. While energy output grew and transport equipment rose, consumer, intermediate and investment goods contracted, and...
European leaders, including Germany’s Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, condemned the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily lift sanctions on stranded Russian oil. They argue the move will replenish Moscow’s war chest and undermine the G7’s unified pressure on Russia...
European freight forwarders are reducing exposure to the United States amid unpredictable tariff policies and turning to South‑East Asia for new import opportunities. The region, bolstered by the broader “China+1” diversification, shows steady growth, with Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam leading...
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Former President Donald Trump told G7 leaders in a virtual meeting that Iran is "about to surrender," citing the ongoing U.S.-Israel Operation Epic Fury. He boasted that the campaign had eliminated a threat and dismissed Iranian leadership as "deranged scumbags."...
A Harris Poll finds 72% of Americans say Trump’s tariffs have raised their costs, with grocery items like beef and coffee seeing double‑digit price jumps. Despite a Supreme Court ruling limiting many levies, the administration plans a 15% baseline tariff...
US PCE Data is set to release today. Lets prepare for it in 3 simple steps using @mrkt_ai terminal. Comment "playbook" & i will dm you the MRKT access link
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached out to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, seeking safe passage for Indian vessels as Iran threatens to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The closure jeopardises roughly half of India’s crude‑oil imports and its primary...
The market is adjusting to heightened geopolitical risk after coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, which have effectively shut the Hormuz Strait and intensified regional drone attacks. These developments are pushing oil prices higher for a longer period, bolstering the U.S....
The escalating war in Iran is pushing oil prices higher, reviving stagflation fears across global markets. As inflation expectations rise, both equities and government bonds are falling in tandem, eroding the historic hedge that bonds provide against stock losses. This...
Is 2026 Next After 9/11, 2008, 2022? Bitcoin Slides - This year may be shaping up like some combination of 2001, 2008 and 2022, with similar risk-asset-reversion implications. Crude oil's spike to its $147-a-barrel peak in 2008 accelerated the Great...
big picture % change since U.S. & Israel attacked Iran... crude + $VIX & Bitcoin up the most... https://t.co/lK9FCWy5TY
Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the NXT Conclave to unveil India’s comprehensive energy strategy, emphasizing expanded domestic infrastructure and reduced reliance on imports. He highlighted a surge in strategic petroleum reserves to over 5 million tonnes, a tripling of LPG connections,...
U.S. GDP grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with the forecast of 1.4%. The pace of growth has slowed noticeably. In such a situation, the Federal Reserve has more room not to keep interest rates high for too...
Core prices rose 0.36% in January in the PCE index (Nov and Dec price levels were revised up slightly), raising the 12-month inflation rate to 3.1% This index had fallen to 2.6% in April 2025 Headline was +0.28% in January and 2.8%...
In this episode, Gustavo Medeiros of Ashmore Group and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower examine how the war‑induced oil shock is pressuring emerging market (EM) economies with rising energy costs, stagflation risks, and declining asset prices. They discuss the extraordinary policy...
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with @ncitayim for a view on the Iran war from one of my absolute favourite OPEC and Middle East oil analysts, reporting from the Gulf. (Link...
January Core PCE prints at 3.1% as expected - previously 3.0% y/y Headline PCE prints at 2.8% vs 2.9% expected- previously 2.9% y/y
The U.S. Supreme Court nullified President Trump’s emergency authority to impose tariffs, reigniting uncertainty for the pharmaceutical sector. Despite the ruling, most‑favored‑nation (MFN) pricing agreements between branded drug makers and the Administration are expected to hold, though new U.S. manufacturing...
$SPX hit a 6636 low Monday and bounced to 6670, and now we’ll see if early strength holds or fades with 6740ish as resistance. #FOMC is the next move as the Fed turned more hawkish with inflation and higher...
NEW: The president of #Cuba for the first time CONFIRMS talks with the US, which he says are to identity areas of bilateral cooperation. He's giving his SECOND press conference in as many months, addressing the problems of the current energy...
Fitch Ratings raised its forecast for India’s FY 2025‑26 GDP growth to 7.5%, a slight uptick from the 7.4% projected in December. The agency also lifted its outlook for FY 2026‑27 to 6.7% from 6.4%, citing strong domestic demand and double‑digit credit...
What are the longer term ramifications of an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz? Growth in alternative energy sources? What else?
The War Rages On; Equities and Bonds Don't Like It,: The war and rhetoric around it keep investors on edge, even though WTI and Brent are consolidating now after reaching marginal new four-day highs. The greenback is firm against the...
While everyone focuses on volatile oil prices, the dollar is nearing a breakout higher. An appreciating dollar tightens monetary policy outside of the US and helps tame import prices. Many other implications as well. https://t.co/69NGmJLCB1
Markets are quiet today but there's a BIG week ahead with 7 central bank rate decisions including the Fed Here's my take on it all 👇
Crude is consolidating despite the war showing no signs of relenting. Disappointing UK Jan GDP pushes $GBP to the bottom of G10 fx today. Proximity of JPY160 turns mkt cautious and $JPY is faring best. See https://t.co/Xdwqs68Eew https://t.co/aB4Tekr0wK
We've all heard the claim that the Iraq War was a war for oil, but American energy firms barely wanted to touch Iraq after Saddam fell. Things might be shifting now. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/5iqjffXWpl #crudeoil #iraq #chevron #geopolitics https://t.co/tn3Jsb1BTc
NEW ODD LOTS: What War in Iran means for the 'teapot' oil refineries in China. @tracyalloway and I talk to @Erica_Downs_ about what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Chinese energy security. https://t.co/ZdGwLQJV8E
Great @business reporting by @DanielPFlatley on US moves to ease restrictions on buying Russian oil. This is all backwards. Russia and Iran are making money while the Strait of Hormuz is shut and global oil prices spike. Iran's oil exports...
