Today's Global Economy Pulse
China's producer price index rose 3.9% year‑on‑year in May, the strongest increase since July 2022, driven by a 10% jump in fuel and power costs and a 22% surge in non‑ferrous metal prices. Consumer inflation eased to 1.2% YoY, below expectations, highlighting a split between rising wholesale prices and subdued retail inflation.
Underestimate at Your Peril — Hormuz Chokes Tropical Hardwood Supply
The February 28 closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a severe diesel shortage in Malaysia and Indonesia, pushing industrial diesel prices up 140% and crippling the region’s tropical hardwood supply chain. Logging concessions, log carriers and sawmills are largely idle as fuel becomes scarcer than costly, prompting a market freeze on quotations. The shortage is compounded by Malaysia’s "triple burden" of fuel volatility, higher sales tax and labor shortages, while Bolivia’s operations remain functional thanks to a dedicated diesel import licence. With vessel traffic in the Gulf down 80% and no viable detour, the global hardwood market faces tighter supply and longer lead times than current forecasts anticipate.
Donroe Doctrine Is Becoming Everything China Feared
The U.S. State Department, joined by Panama and five Latin American nations, issued a joint statement denouncing recent detentions of Panama‑flagged ships at Chinese ports and accusing China of politicizing maritime trade. The declaration is part of a broader law‑fare...
Oil Crisis Deepens: Shrinking Stocks Guarantee Higher Prices
From the article in The Economist on "The crisis in oil markets will get bigger before it goes away: As stocks dwindle, further price rises are inevitable." #economy #oil #energy #markets @theeconomist
South Korea's Productivity Surge Outpaces Stagnant Japan
South Korea’s GDP per capita outpaces Japan’s by a CONSIDERABLE MARGIN. Between 2008 and 2025, South Korea's labor productivity has grown by 1.53%/yr, while Japan’s productivity has flatlined at 0.03%/yr. SOUTH KOREA IS LEAVING JAPAN IN THE DUST. https://t.co/kTHWpeVX96
India's Consumption Stands Its Ground Amid Gulf War Tremors
India’s consumption engine kicked off the fiscal year with record GST collections of ₹2.43 lakh crore (≈ $29 billion), an 8.7% year‑on‑year rise, while passenger‑car sales jumped 25% to 445,417 units in April. Digital payments via UPI surged 21% to ₹29 lakh crore (≈ $350 billion), underscoring robust...
China's 'Teapot' Refineries Aid Iran Amid U.S. Pressure
China’s ‘Teapot’ Refiners, Targeted by U.S., Offer Financial Lifeline to Iran—Sector that once rebelled against Beijing grows into a critical tool for working around sanctions @BrianSpegele https://t.co/kjTCM9IgX4 https://t.co/kjTCM9IgX4
Fuel Spike Is Coming: Relief at Bowser Not Tipped to Last
Australia’s regional oil benchmark Tapis crude surged to US$125 a barrel, the highest level since the 2022 Ukraine war, prompting expectations of higher pump prices. After a brief two‑week respite following a US‑Iran cease‑fire, fuel prices are set to climb...
Tesla Launches Model 3 RWD in Canada at Record-Low $39,490 ($29,000 USD) From China
Tesla introduced a Model 3 Premium RWD in Canada for $39,490 CAD (about $29,000 USD), the lowest price ever for the sedan in the market. The price advantage stems from sourcing the car from Giga Shanghai after Canada reduced its tariff on Chinese...
April: Rebound in Stocks, Carry in Bonds (E260)
In April, U.S. equities staged a strong rebound after March’s war‑related sell‑off, while investment‑grade bonds delivered a modest positive carry despite higher yields. Emerging‑market debt outperformed other credit segments with a 2.7% return, and commodities, led by energy, rose on...
Crude Oil Slides 3.3% to $101.79 as U.S.-Iran De‑Escalation Boosts Market Optimism
Crude oil prices plunged 3.28% on Friday, with WTI June futures trading at $101.79 a barrel, after reports that Iran offered a new peace proposal to the United States. The move lifted the U.S. Dollar Index to 98.22 and revived...
Dimerco Warns Jet‑fuel Crisis and AI Cargo Surge Squeeze Asia‑Europe Air Freight Capacity
Freight forwarder Dimerco says the jet‑fuel shortage triggered by the Middle East conflict and a surge in AI‑related shipments are compressing air‑cargo capacity on Asia‑Europe lanes, pushing rates higher and forcing shippers to plan earlier.
China Lifts Tariffs on All African Imports Except One
"China has now dropped tariffs on imports from every African country except 1" 😔 https://t.co/YKeyJNxXts
US Equity Futures Rise, Oil Futures Fall on Iran Ceasefire Optimism
U.S. equity futures jumped 0.3% after reports that Iran submitted a response to a U.S. cease‑fire amendment, while oil futures slipped, with Brent down $1 to $110 and WTI to $103. The move pushed the S&P futures toward an all‑time...
Iran War Spurs Record $2.3 Trillion Surge in Clean‑Energy Investment
The Iran‑U.S. conflict has forced oil‑dependent economies to double down on renewables, lifting global clean‑energy investment to a record $2.3 trillion. Analysts cite soaring oil prices, supply bottlenecks and energy‑security concerns as the catalyst for the shift.
Nigeria’s Banks Finish $10bn Recapitalisation, Eye Growth‑Driven Lending
Nigerian banks have completed a $10 billion recapitalisation, strengthening capital buffers and setting the stage for accelerated credit growth. The IMF praised the move as a safeguard against external shocks, while regulators aim to channel the new capital into productive lending...
Indian Rupee Slides to Record 95.33 per Dollar as Oil Tops $125
The Indian rupee hit an intraday low of 95.33 per dollar on Thursday, closing at 94.90 after the Reserve Bank of India stepped in. The slide was driven by global oil prices breaching $125 a barrel and persistent foreign portfolio...
Nigerian Naira Gains 2% After CBN Unveils New FX Strategy
The Central Bank of Nigeria introduced a new foreign‑exchange policy that pushed the naira 2% higher versus the U.S. dollar. The move, which includes an interest‑rate cut, has been welcomed by traders but also draws caution from analysts wary of...
ECB Hints at June Rate Hike as Iran Conflict Fuels Uncertainty
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated that June could be the “right time” to raise rates, even as the Iran conflict adds geopolitical risk. The euro slipped below 1.1750, and markets are pricing a June hike while debating the...
EU Triggers Interim Mercosur Trade Deal as US Tariffs Bite European Exporters
The European Union will activate an interim free‑trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc tomorrow, a move designed to counter growing U.S. tariff pressures on European goods. The pact, set to roll into full implementation in 2026, opens South American markets...
U.S. Debt Tops 100% of GDP for First Time Since WWII, Sparking Fiscal Alarm
The United States’ debt‑to‑GDP ratio reached 100.2% on March 31, 2026 – the first time it has exceeded the nation’s annual output since 1946. The milestone, driven by tax cuts, entitlement spending and persistent deficits, pushes interest payments past $1 trillion, outpacing...
U.S. Treasury Yields Edge Higher as Markets Rebound Amid Iran Peace Proposal and Trump Tariff Threat
U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly and the yield curve flattened on Friday as equities recovered, driven by Iran's fresh peace proposal and President Trump's threat of 25% tariffs on EU autos. The move reflects investors balancing geopolitical risk with a...
US War on Iran Costs $25B, Seeks $200B
My take @FortuneMagazine on the cost of the US-Israeli war on Iran: "Operation Epic Fury has burned through $25 billion so far. That's just the tip of the iceberg. The White House has requested a supplemental budget of $200 billion for its...
UAE Exits OPEC: What Forced the West Asian Nation to Junk the Oil Cartel Amid the US-Iran War? Explained
The United Arab Emirates announced on May 1, 2026 that it will leave OPEC, ending its participation in the cartel’s production‑quota system. Analysts say the move is a pre‑planned shift driven by a mismatch between the UAE’s 4.8 million‑barrel‑per‑day capacity and the 3.2 million‑bpd...
US LNG Exports to Asia Surged in April as Middle East Conflict Curtailed Supply
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Asia surged in April, with shipments climbing to 2.71 million tonnes—up 175% from February—after Middle‑East supply was disrupted by the Iran conflict. Asian spot LNG prices stayed high, averaging $17.92 per MMBtu, roughly 17%...
Strait Closure Threatens Escalating Pain for EMDEs
I wrote about this here. https://t.co/6nvDEd9BSJ The pain is felt most acutely now in EMDEs. But make no mistake, much more pain is headed our way if strait remains closed.
Oil Falls on Hopes for US-Iran Negotiations, Hormuz Progress
Oil slipped to around $102 per barrel on Friday as US‑Iran peace talks remain tenuous, even though West Texas Intermediate posted an 8% weekly gain. Traders trimmed risk amid thin volumes and global market holidays, while the ongoing de‑facto closure...
Russia Now Main Supplier Of Oil To Post-Assad Syria, Despite Pivot To West
Russia has surged to become Syria’s leading oil supplier after the fall of Bashar al‑Assad, with shipments climbing 75% to about 60,000 barrels per day. The increase reflects Damascus’ acute energy shortfall and a pragmatic turn toward Moscow despite a...
India's Sensex Slides 0.75% as Oil Spike and Geopolitical Tensions Drag Markets
The BSE Sensex fell 582.86 points (0.75%) to 76,913.50 and the NSE Nifty 50 slipped 180.10 points (0.74%) to 23,997.55 on Thursday. A surge in Brent crude above $120 per barrel and heightened geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz...
Canton Fair Highlights Livestream Shopping Guides Linking China and Middle East
The Canton Fair debuted livestream shopping guides that directly connect Chinese merchants with buyers in the Middle East. The move reflects a broader surge in cross‑border ecommerce, as Visa reports double‑digit growth in online spend and Tradeweb notes a 56%...
China’s Post‑2008 Growth Beats U.S., Redefining Exceptionalism
Forget America’s exceptionalism. Since 2008, all the action has been in China. I wonder if Xi will show Trump the accompanying chart when they meet on May 14 & 15? CHINA = GROWTH EXCEPTIONALISM. https://t.co/Ijn7BPdUxb
US Citrus Imports Would Not Affect Domestic Supply
Taiwan's agriculture ministry says U.S. tangerine imports, averaging 1,115 tonnes a year, represent only about 1% of domestic consumption and will not disrupt the local citrus market. Imports arrive from March to May, a period that does not coincide with Taiwan's...
MOFA Speaks Out About Threats in China-US Call
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) voiced concern after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the United States during a call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The remarks came ahead of a high‑profile US‑China summit scheduled for May 14‑15 between President Donald Trump...
Trump Threatens 25% Tariffs on EU Cars over Trade Dispute
Trump says he will hike tariffs on EU cars to 25% 🚨 The US president accused the EU of "not complying with our fully agreed to trade deal" in a post on Truth Social, but did not explain how? @champ_trader
Strait of Hormuz Closure Cuts 10M Barrels Daily
According to the World Bank’s NEW Commodity Markets Outlook report, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz wiped out around ~10 MILLION BARRELS/DAY of global oil supply. This is the LARGEST DISRUPTION ON RECORD https://t.co/ERT2BN8SaZ
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Undermining Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Governor Transitions
Recent research covering 132 central‑bank governor transitions across 28 economies finds that 38% of changes are politically motivated, especially in emerging markets. Politically driven appointments, particularly those with unorthodox monetary views, lead to lower short‑term interest rates, a short‑run GDP...
Foregone Gulf Oil Costs Exceed $60 Billion
Cost of foregone Gulf oil production alone—not counting LNG, fertilizer, helium supply chain consequences—is currently valued at $60+ billion.
News Wrap: Trump Announces 25% Tariffs on Cars and Trucks From the EU
President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on cars and trucks imported from the European Union, accusing the bloc of violating a trade agreement reached last summer. The move escalates a dispute that began after the EU’s 15% levy on...
‘A Lot of Money to Be Made:’ How Canada's Food and Beverage Companies Can Grow Outside the U.S.
Canadian food and beverage exporters are rethinking their heavy reliance on the United States as the CUSMA trade pact heads for renegotiation. A panel at SIAL Canada highlighted the need to explore new markets, with Export Development Canada (EDC) focusing...
Trump Announces 25% Tariffs on Cars From the EU
The episode examines President Donald Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on European cars and trucks, arguing the move stems from perceived EU non‑compliance with a recent trade deal, especially over steel and aluminium disputes. BBC correspondents and EU officials...
Saudi's Spending Cut Signals Shift in Regional Power
What the End of Saudi Arabia’s Big-Spending Era Means for the Kingdom and Beyond https://t.co/9iRmQ5paso
Canadian Business Closures Surge, 1 In 20 Shutter In A Month
Statistics Canada reports that 46,900 businesses closed in January 2026, a 4.5% year‑over‑year increase, pushing the monthly closure rate to 5%—roughly one in twenty firms. Business openings held steady at 4.9%, leaving the net active‑business count at 936,200, the lowest...
Argentina's Money Supply Shrinks as Global Credit Bloats
Argentina is the only country where money supply is contracting at a double-digit rate. Meanwhile, the rest of the world continues to expand credit with little to no monetary discipline. None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/7n3N1S2a1W https://t.co/mVU3eZcLRN
Investors Eye Venezuela Amid Legal and Political Uncertainty
Summary of my 24 hours on the ground in #Venezuela. Investors/potential investors are visiting, but the country's legal/regulatory framework and political/democratic future (Delcy Rodriguez ducked a question on the timeline for elections) continue as large areas of concern... 👇🏼
Crude Tankers Decline Despite Yanbu Demand
Crude shipments from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port surged to roughly 4‑4.2 million barrels per day in April, compensating for a steep drop in Middle‑East Gulf loadings that fell to 1.8‑1.9 million b/d after the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict halted Hormuz traffic. Despite the Yanbu...
Live: Japan's FX Intervention Misread, US Leads Standoff
I'm doing a livestream tomorrow morning at 9 am to discuss Japan's latest FX intervention, which is as "lost in translation" as always. I'll also give an update on the US blockade and where we now stand. The US is...
Strong Private Sector Essential for Funding Social Programs
Hot take: You cannot fund great social programs without a thriving private sector. In Canada: Over 60% of taxes are paid by the top 20% of earners. If we want better schools, health care, and innovation, we need more builders creating taxable value. https://t.co/qwr8lXrBsr
Iran War Shakes Global Economy as Energy Costs Surge and Recession Fears Grow
In just over nine weeks, the Iran war has sent shockwaves through the global economy, driving up oil and gas prices and igniting inflationary pressures worldwide. Countries that rely on Gulf imports—such as Sri Lanka, Mexico, the United Kingdom and...
AI Drives Nearly Half of Recent GDP Growth
Per @sonusvarghese, over the past 5 quarters GDP has averaged 2.0%. 0.90% of that (so 45%) has come from AI hardware/software spending. Wow. https://t.co/aiia8rSNZ2
US‑Iran Talks Stall, Oil Stocks Dip Another 100 M Barrels
Every weekend half my feed expects a sudden breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations and the other half expects a sharp resumption of bombings. Of course, the most likely outcome is that absolutely nothing changes and we do this again next week, down...
It Now Costs $160 to Fill up America’s Top-Selling Vehicle as the Iran War Nears Its 10th Week
Gasoline prices have surged to four‑year highs since the Iran war began, reaching $4.42 per gallon nationally. At that price, filling a new Ford F‑150, America’s best‑selling vehicle, costs about $160. The price jump represents a nearly 50% increase in nine...