Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Statistics Canada reported a 0.4% drop in employment in February, wiping out 84,000 jobs—all full‑time—bringing the labour force back to September 2025 levels. Private‑sector employment fell 0.5% and has shown no growth over the past year, while all net gains stem from public‑sector hiring. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, pushing the unemployed pool to 1.51 million, a volume typically seen only in recessions. Despite aggressive fiscal borrowing, the labour market now mirrors recession‑level weakness.
Multiple headlines today about the parallels between now and the run-up to the GFC. From Bloomberg: "BofA’s Hartnett Warns Markets Starting to Look Like 2008." From the FT: "Should investors worry about a 2008-style shock?" The key concern: oil prices...
It's clear: the market is genuinely uninterested in entertaining what could go wrong in Iran. They were very happy to ask that question about AI, but for whatever reason, not about this. More on the market's reaction to Iran in...
The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving oil prices up, reviving concerns about a U.S. recession. Economists note that higher energy costs could reignite inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to balance rate cuts against potential hikes. Multiple geopolitical flashpoints—from Iran...
The Office for National Statistics reported that UK GDP growth has essentially flatlined, signalling a stagnant economy. An analysis by Frontier Economics suggests that fully implementing the UK‑EU summit commitments could add roughly 2 percent to annual growth, a figure the...
Here’s the Financial Times on today's revised data on US fourth-quarter GDP. Similar to the consumer spending figures also released today (please see previous post), Q4 GDP growth now suggests a less dynamic American economy in the run-up to the...
The Financial Times has unveiled the Monetary Policy Radar editorial team, a dedicated unit focused on tracking central‑bank actions and their market impact. The team is led by Chris Giles, FT’s economics commentator, and includes Andrew Whiffin, award‑winning UK CFA Journalist...
The BEA’s decision to change legal services source data in the PCE from CPI (around 11.3% in Jan) to PPI (1.8% in Jan) cut the core PCE MoM chg by 8bps (would have been 0.44% vs 0.36%). Could defend...
Ammonia fertilizer prices have jumped as the Middle East conflict disrupts shipments from key producers, lifting European spot rates by roughly $50 per tonne. The region, responsible for 23% of global ammonia trade, saw vessels stranded and diverted, tightening supply....
India and the United Kingdom are set to bring their Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) into force by mid‑April, just a month after the announcement. The deal grants duty‑free access for 99% of Indian exports to the UK market...
India’s imports from China have decelerated sharply, rising only 87.8% in FY2015‑25 versus a 618% surge in FY2005‑14, while exports to China accelerated to a 38.3% year‑on‑year gain in April‑January FY2024‑25 compared with a 13.8% import rise. The slowdown is...
The article compares the present oil supply shock, triggered by Iranian retaliation against U.S. and Israeli strikes, with the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Experts say the current disruption is the largest ever, affecting a far greater share of global consumption...
U.S. tech giants including Amazon, Google, Microsoft and OpenAI have poured billions into data center projects across the Persian Gulf to support AI development. Iranian drone attacks in early March damaged Amazon’s facilities in Bahrain and the UAE, disrupting services...
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
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The U.S. Congress extended the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) only until 31 December 2026, a modest reprieve after President Trump’s 2025 tariffs eroded its benefits. Tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and a new 10% surcharge under...
Russell Investments’ head of Canadian strategy, BeiChen Lin, warns that the market is over‑pricing rate hikes after Canada shed a record 84,000 jobs in February, the biggest monthly loss since 2022. He attributes the slowdown to trade‑policy uncertainty and a...
A surge in global oil prices after President Trump’s attack on Iran has pushed Massachusetts gasoline prices up 45 cents per gallon, costing drivers over $2.4 million daily. The state consumes about 6 million gallons per day, so the extra expense totals...
US economic data released today suggests that, leading up to the Middle East War, hitherto robust consumer spending had begun to soften. Meanwhile, inflation — as measured by core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure — remained sticky, holding well...
Inflation was hearing up even before the US-Iran conflict began. Bad news for the economy and bad news for the Fed
Two small firms, spice maker Burlap and Barrel and toy producer Basic Fun, have filed a lawsuit in the Court of International Trade to overturn President Trump’s temporary 10% global tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act. The companies argue...
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
As oil prices surged on Thursday during the intensifying Iran war, President Donald Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as markets increasingly bet that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and delay...
The latest Leaders‑Laggards analysis highlights a pronounced "war premium" as energy and defense equities outperform amid $100‑plus oil and deteriorating payroll data. Defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples are rallying, creating a clear rotation away from riskier assets....
The discussion around TACO is wrong. There are no TACOs here. TACOs don't exist when: 1) It's not a unilateral decision. It's very clearly not up to Trump any more. Things we said in this episode are playing out - he...
A February 2026 FUSE Research survey of over 520 financial advisors shows government debt and fiscal policy are the top market risk for the next 12‑month horizon, rising to 56% for a three‑year outlook. Advisors are shifting client conversations toward...
Singapore has rejected the U.S. Trade Representative’s claim that it posted a $27 billion trade surplus with the United States in 2024, asserting instead a $27 billion deficit – $1.7 billion in goods and $25.1 billion in services. The dispute arises as Washington launches...
The escalating Iran crisis is driving sharp, hourly swings in oil prices, with Brent crude moving nearly $30 in a single day. While the broader equity markets have remained relatively calm, European stocks are under pressure compared with resilient US...
January was another hot month for PCE inflation (we're getting these data two weeks later than usual due to shutdown). Annual rates for core PCE: 4.5% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1%
Wealth Professional’s March spotlight turns to global markets as Canadian advisors note a renewed appetite for international allocations. Since early 2024, global equities have outperformed key U.S. indices, ending a 12‑year period of lag. Tyler Mordy of Forstrong Global explains...
The ongoing Iran war is creating hidden infrastructure risks that could ripple through the global technology supply chain. Gartner analyst Cori Masters identifies seven disruption pathways, from data‑center workload relocations to delayed semiconductor fab equipment deliveries. Rising petrochemical‑based material costs...
Rather than blame business for price gouging perhaps the government would be better served at looking at its own policies around fuel duty, where the Treasury takes more than 50% of the pump price. Perhaps a temporary cut to...
"The ongoing rewriting of the rules of world order and the resulting fragmentation of global alliances in defense, trade and finance will raise the security risk premium across asset classes and geographies." @ctorresreporter writes in https://t.co/48SyYtQz8S
In the last week alone, the Pentagon estimates that the US spent $11 BILLION on the Iran war. WARNING: Pentagon estimates are always fiction and way below the real cost. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/49t33aGlwH
With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the UAE has turned to its rail network. Etihad Rail Freight has transported 459,000 tons of cargo and 7,900 containers in only 9 days. UAE’S INFRASTRUCTURE MITIGATES THE WAR’S COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/cRyWRv4gvD
Good point & good question - what happens to the USD's reserve status if USD commodity contracts are broken on a widespread basis? What's the point of holding USDs if they are declared worthless for commodities when inconvenient? See 2022 seizure of...
For a $600,000 home, a borrower will now have to pay $130 more per month than what they would have paid the day before the war started when rates were 5.99%
Prediction markets are pricing in 2/3rds chance that U.S. boots are on the ground by the end of the year https://t.co/2kcrfgNU6v
Based on what Glapinski said during his press conference two days ago, all indications are, as I expected, that the plan is to use unrealised gains on the NBP's gold to fund the programme. https://t.co/csre6RPhlr
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on the war in Iran: “It’s quite clear that the war is not going well for the United States… and the problem that [Trump] faces is he can’t find an off-ramp.” https://t.co/7LkbA4GAp1
BESSENT: A LONG WAY FROM FED GOING BACK TO QE Talk about blatant BS- the Fed is doing QE
If this war lasts much longer, it's not just an oil shock that could destabilize the economy. Food too. "We are facing a risk of stagflation" - @JosephEStiglitz Apple🔊https://t.co/7Ewtn8N1AT Spotify📽️https://t.co/3AKmC9yw2d YouTube📽️https://t.co/yR3j6zbCrB https://t.co/hYJLSPL2uF
TRUMP PANICS and orders the release of 172 million barrels of oil from America's strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). This will amount to a drop in the bucket. SPR is a classic OUTDATED GOV'T WHITE ELEPHANT. It's time to liquidate it and shut it...
OUT NOW - @martinwolf_ on "nightmare scenario" for oil prices and why the democratic regime change in Iran is "extremely implausible" 🇮🇷 Apple🔊https://t.co/YIUZqmamAH Spotify📽️https://t.co/TIAT3VANJk YouTube📽️https://t.co/unzLSGazzM https://t.co/MQl4DAj8d0
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume. Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over...
DXY starting to move up just as it did in early 2018. This threatens to tighten global liquidity even further, which will continue to be a macro headwind for risk assets https://t.co/70JRVsUDZk
When will the Copper-Gold ratio 'normalize' such that it will once again stand as a reflection of economic health? The unusual surge in gold these past months is still distorting it. Would be good to have a clear reading from...
Iran war reignites debate over U.S. oil exports, which have surged after Congress + Obama lifted a ban in 2015. https://t.co/xCz2d8WdQ1 via @axios https://t.co/kHinCgc4Z7
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
$EEM up 33% over the past year. Then dropped 8.4% in a single week. That's not volatility. That's a warning. Dollar weakness opens the door. Oil slams it shut. EM is a minefield right now. https://t.co/i9MYZbdcdq
