Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
A new AidData report shows China granted or loaned $23.9 billion to finance 168 ports across 90 countries between 2000 and 2025. The investments, covering construction, expansion and equipment, often sit near Chinese‑financed mines and have hosted naval visits at more than half the sites. While 54% of the funding went to low‑ and middle‑income nations, Australia alone received $4.5 billion for seven ports, and the study finds no clear debt‑trap pattern. Researchers argue the network secures supply chains for commodities and offers strategic maritime independence, raising geopolitical concerns about potential naval basing.
Thai rice exporters halted two ships carrying 80,000 tonnes bound for Iraq after a Thai vessel was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, effectively pausing Middle‑East shipments. The disruption comes as Thailand’s rice export outlook has already slipped 11% to...
It's not just oil and gas. What other crucial commodities are under threat from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz? Fertilisers, aluminium, plastics, helium and more. https://t.co/H1tRNgqzv6
Indonesia’s February 2026 consumer price index rose to 4.76% year‑on‑year, overshooting the 1.5‑3.5% target range. The surge is driven by Ramadan‑related food demand, a government free‑meal scheme, and sharply higher electricity tariffs. Commodity pressures are amplified by a tenfold cut...
My take on the difficultly navigating the splintering within Fed leadership amidst tension of inflation and the labor market.
U.S. officials, including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, confirmed that the Trump administration has discussed using oil futures contracts to temper soaring crude prices amid the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict. While the idea was explored, Burgum said no concrete market intervention has...
In the debut episode of Gundlach Unlocked, DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and that long‑term rates have stalled despite recent cuts. He also sees the U.S. dollar entering a...
Rick Rule warns that renewed oil price volatility is inflating mining operating costs and reshaping the sector’s risk profile. He draws parallels to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, noting how energy shocks can trigger profound real‑asset cycles. The interview also...
The United States announced it will actively prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil shipments. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth downplayed the disruption but affirmed U.S. readiness, while the Trump administration lifted select sanctions...
Wall Street faced modest declines as the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% amid heightened oil price volatility and ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. A federal judge dismissed subpoenas targeting the Federal Reserve Board and Chair Jerome Powell over alleged renovation...
The number Wall Street was dreading arrived today. Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% — literally half the initial reading — while core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1%, its highest since early 2024. The S&P 500 responded by hitting...
The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at UTCC outlined three Middle‑East war scenarios, estimating that a prolonged, wide‑scale conflict could shave 2.31 percentage points off Thailand’s GDP. In the worst case, energy‑cost burdens would rise above 200 billion baht, exports could...
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% at the March 2026 meeting, postponing any hike until at least April. Market participants cite heightened volatility from the Iran‑Israel conflict and surging energy prices as key...
👀 💵Remember the fuss about Bessent conducting an ESF-funded fx swap exchange to support the Argentinian peso back in October 2025? We now have the details of those transactions via the quarterly reporting Congress requires for Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund operations. They...
DoubleLine’s March 13 Minutes highlighted a market caught between lingering war‑driven energy shocks and rising inflation concerns. Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel noted that energy stocks remain volatile while front‑end Treasury yields climb amid jittery price data. Fed funds futures shifted...
The U.S. Trade Representative announced Section 301 investigations into 16 countries, including China, and separate probes into 60 economies over forced‑labor concerns. In response, Chinese officials warned they could reinstate rare‑earth export restrictions and halt soybean purchases if Washington proceeds with...
Enterprises are eyeing retired server hardware as a new source of rare earth elements after Korea Zinc entered talks with major U.S. tech firms to recycle data‑center waste. The initiative follows Western Digital’s pilot with Critical Materials Recycling and comes...
In this episode of Motley Fool Money, hosts Travis Hoyam, Jason Moser, and Lou Whiteman dissect the risk of stagflation in 2026, highlighting the recent dip in Q4 GDP growth to 0.7% and persistent inflation above 3%. They explore how...
The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.2% in January. This is the median of 24 numbers: 8 concepts measured over 3, 6 and 12 months.
Morningstar DBRS reaffirmed Ireland’s long‑term sovereign rating at AA with a stable outlook, and its short‑term rating at R‑1 (high). The agency highlighted a 4.9% rise in real modified domestic demand and a 12.3% surge in real GDP in 2025,...
Economists warn that a sustained $200 per barrel WTI price would trigger a systemic shock to the U.S. economy. At that level, gasoline could top $7 per gallon, eroding over $400 billion in discretionary consumer spending and deepening energy poverty. The...
The Inter‑American Development Bank is backing the Bi‑Oceanic Corridor—a 2,300‑mile road and rail link from Brazil to Chile—with a $200 million loan for the critical Paraguay segment. The corridor, slated for completion in late 2026, promises to shave roughly two‑and‑a‑half weeks off...
In 2026, escalating Middle‑East conflict has reignited oil‑price volatility while the private‑credit market grapples with heightened redemption pressure. Economists warn that these seemingly separate shocks can compound, tightening liquidity across capital markets. War‑related fiscal outlays—about $365 billion annually—provide a short‑term economic...
FTSE Russell plans to reclassify Vietnam from a frontier market to the secondary‑emerging category, a move that will trigger substantial index‑fund inflows. Analysts estimate up to $5 billion could be redirected into Vietnamese equities once the change is implemented in September. Retail...
US exporters are scrambling to locate containers shipped to the Middle East after ocean carriers halted almost all services due to the war with Iran. Mediterranean Shipping Company invoked an “end‑of‑voyage” clause for shipments bound for Dubai’s Jebel Ali, leaving cargo...
In this episode of Serious Trouble, hosts Josh Barrow and Ken White dissect the Trump administration's struggle to refund illegal IEPA tariffs due to a rigid customs computer system, and the courts' pushback against the administration's attempts to sidestep Senate...
Leaders in agriculture and manufacturing emphasized the stability of the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) as essential to North‑American supply chains. Soybean exports to Mexico have quadrupled and to Canada doubled since the pact took effect, while Canadian pork and cross‑border equipment...
U.S. equity markets closed the week in the red, with all three major indexes falling at least 1.3% as the United States and Israel escalated their conflict with Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the declines, slipping nearly 2%...
In this episode, Sean Kim explains how the Strait of Hormuz— a critical shipping lane for energy— could become a bottleneck for the global technology sector, especially advanced semiconductor manufacturing. He highlights that chip fabs, like those in Taiwan, consume...
The Pentagon has ordered the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, about 2,200 Marines, and the USS Tripoli to the Middle East to neutralize Iran’s missile and naval threats to global shipping. The deployment signals a shift from a rapid‑response posture to...
The ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing global crude to around $100 a barrel. Puerto Rico, which generates roughly 60 % of its electricity from aging oil‑fired plants, will see its regulated power rates rise when...
Iran’s recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints, prompting a sharp rise in global crude prices. While the United States sources only a modest fraction of its oil from the...
Cyprus, currently holding the EU presidency, has moved from a neutral position to actively opposing the removal of sanctions on Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov, citing historic disputes with Turkey. The shift follows a letter from Turkish President Recep Erdoğan to Slovak...
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) – the “gold standard” of jobs data – shows U.S. employers added only 123,000 jobs in the 12 months through September 2025, far below the 636,000 reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics...
Energy, especially oil, is the backbone of every economy. As I said, a stable oil price, $55 to $70, keeps the global economy running smoothly. But it’s about more than price, it’s about keeping the two-mile stretch of the Strait...
It looks like we will be focused on two things next week: 1. The economic impact of the US-Iran conflict 2. Monetary Policy Look at the laundry list of central bank decisions on tap... All of them are expected to hold, but we...
The EU’s economy barely grew in Q4 2025, posting a 0.2 percent quarterly increase. Although inflation has eased and central banks trimmed rates, growth momentum stalled. A sharp 40 percent rise in Brent crude and record‑high gas prices, driven by the ongoing...
The geopolitical impact might be negative, but I reckon this brings South Korea even closer to the PRC, probably bullish Chinese tourism to Korea
ISRAEL CONTINUES BOMBING LEBANON. Today, for the first time, the Israelis admitted targeting civilian infrastructure. Since March 2nd, Lebanon’s Health Ministry reports that at least 773 Lebanese have been killed by Israeli airstrikes. https://t.co/RtUAb9jgfW
The Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were ILLEGAL. Now, the US government is slow walking the refunds Americans are due. Once the government illegally taxes you, it’s hard to get a legal refund. https://t.co/crKDhGMBIe
The *number* outside the labor force will organically rise as the population ages. It says *zero* about labor market health. A better measure is the participation *rate* of prime-age individuals, which excludes those likeliest to be retired or students. It's near...
Love them or hate them, prediction markets still have some pointed utility. Betting on a #recession this year has hit a four-month high https://t.co/8ycrvzy65o
MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN: Fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf are stuck. Fertilizer prices have jumped about 30%. US FARMERS ARE STARTING TO TURN AGAINST TRUMP. https://t.co/IwXKoWCUj0
tonight at your cocktail 🍸 party when someone says that interest rates are coming down and the central bank has you covered, tell them the @bankofcanada has dropped rates 7 times since Sep/24 and 5 & 10 yields are higher...
Since 2000, the average year has seen an 87 bps range between the highest 30-year fixed mortgage rate reading in the calendar year and the lowest reading So far in 2026, that range has been 42 bps Lowest this year: 5.99% Highest...
Ocean carriers and new ways to serve the Middle East with the Strait closed. How much of the new approaches will be maintained at war’s end? At the minimum as viable secondary services to keep them functioning.
BEA also released its revised GDP data for Q4, including the Price Index Gross Domestic Purchases, broadest inflation index for domestic inflation, which excludes import prices. It was revised up today to 3.8% for Q4, worst since Q4 2022 https://t.co/ATVMhOch9V...
Martin Wolf on three scenarios for the world economy. This and other topics in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/tE1z5pmzN6
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on the war in Iran: "Like it or not, the world is going into a profound economic crisis. Israel set this off together with the US, and the world will pay a fearsome price for...
SPX has already dropped 5%. If it continues to drop to 10%+, we run the risk of entering into the negative feedback loop I have mentioned. As of right now, the negative feedback loop has not happened, as layoffs/initial claims remain...
