Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
German Q1 GDP Jumps 0.3% YoY, Outpacing Forecasts and Boosting Euro‑Stock Optimism
Germany reported a 0.3% sequential rise in first‑quarter GDP, topping the 0.1% consensus and nudging the Euro‑zone growth outlook higher. The surprise comes amid lingering energy‑price pressures and a slump in consumer sentiment, raising questions about the European Central Bank’s next move and the trajectory of Euro‑listed stocks.
Oil Prices Swing $15 in 48 Hours, Threatening Economy
Crazy price volatility in the oil market: In less than 48 hours, Brent crude has swung from a local low of $111 to a high of $126 and is currently trading at around $116 (Bloomberg chart below). This level of instability is...
Taiwan Carriers Call for Government Help to Free Trapped Box Ships
Taiwan’s three largest container lines—Evergreen, Yang Ming and Wan Hai—have asked the government to negotiate with Iran to free seven vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz since the US‑Israel‑Iran war began on 28 February. Around 40 container ships are immobilised...
San Diego Gasoline Prices Top $6 as Iran Conflict Fuels Oil Surge
San Diego County’s self‑serve regular gasoline hit $6.04 per gallon, the highest since October 2023, as Brent crude climbs above $116 a barrel amid the Iran‑Hormuz standoff. Analysts warn the spike will linger while geopolitical tensions persist.
KOSPI Peaks Near 6,600 Before Pullback as Won Gains Slightly
The KOSPI climbed to a fresh high of 6,624.14 before easing 0.25% in early trade, as retail and institutional investors bought roughly $107 million of shares while foreigners sold about $98 million. Simultaneously, the won‑dollar rate edged up to 1,474...
Oil Prices Jump To Four-Year Highs On US-Iran Tensions
Oil prices surged to four‑year highs as stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks and credible reports of U.S. military action raised fears of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude for June delivery peaked at $126.41 a barrel, while July...
Our View on Chinese Assets: April 2026
Baiguan Pro released its April 2026 view on Chinese assets, highlighting a continued rise in the China Resident Risk Appetite Index (CRRAI) to -0.08, just shy of the neutral zero line. The firm notes that foreign institutional sentiment toward A‑shares...
Foreign Investment in California Rose Last Year Despite Trade Disruption
Foreign investment in California rose 4% last year, reaching 19,717 foreign‑owned enterprises and supporting 847,245 jobs, according to the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. The growth was driven primarily by tech sectors such as AI, aerospace, defense and life...
An Old Railroad Is Key to U.S.-China Race for Critical Metals in Africa
The United States, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a 2023 memorandum to revive the Benguela (Lobito) Railway, aiming to ship Congolese copper and cobalt to global markets via the Angolan port of Lobito. China had rebuilt the...
Easing Capital, Reviving Risk: The Quiet Return of Too Big to Fail
Regulators are rolling back capital requirements for the world’s largest banks, framing the move as a technical tweak rather than a policy shift. The change lowers the cushion that banks must hold against losses, effectively easing constraints on institutions with...
Aleš Michl: A Central Bank. And Bitcoin.
Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl told the Bitcoin Conference 2026 that his central bank reduced inflation from about 20% in 2022 to the 2% target within two years through a hawkish stance. He emphasized that disciplined, tighter monetary policy...
Gold Price Rises over 1% to ₹1.5 Lakh/10g on Fed Pause, Geopolitical Worries
Gold surged more than 1% on Thursday, reaching ₹1.5 lakh (about $1,800) per 10 grams and $4,633.91 per ounce, as the U.S. Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5‑3.75%. The rally was driven by bargain‑buying after recent dips and heightened geopolitical tension...
Can Countries Grow Richer by Exporting People, Not Goods?
Kerala’s prosperity increasingly stems from its diaspora rather than traditional exports. About 1.7 million Keralites—roughly 5 % of the state’s population and 11 % of its workforce—are employed in Gulf nations. Their earnings, sent home as remittances, now constitute a sizable share of...
India’s Weak Currency Reflects Deeper Problems than the Iran War
The IMF’s April update shows India’s rupee lost roughly 10% against the dollar in the fiscal year ending March, pushing the country to sixth place in global GDP rankings, behind the United Kingdom. The currency slide reflects not just external...
How Kalshi Can Help the Federal Reserve
Kalshi and Polymarket saw trading volumes surge to $50 bn in 2025, up from $16 bn the year before, as they expand beyond sports betting into macroeconomic wagers. Economic contracts—covering GDP, payrolls and inflation—now make up about 1‑2% of activity, attracting the...
U.S. Interest Costs Overtake Defense Spending for First Time
The Death Spiral: America Now Spends More on Interest Than Defense Key Takeaways -U.S. interest payments surpassed defense spending in 2024 for the first time in nearly a century. -The gap is projected to widen significantly, with interest costs reaching $2.1 trillion...
The Common Plumbing: Andrea Orcel’s Bull Case for a Convergent Europe
At the Semafor World Economy summit, UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel warned that Europe’s banking sector is “punching below its weight” because the continent remains a patchwork of national rules. He highlighted that the combined market value of the top ten...
Yannis Stournaras: On the Contribution of the Economic and Financial Committee to the Development of the Euro Area and Future...
Greek Central Bank Governor Yannis Stournaras highlighted the Economic and Financial Committee’s pivotal role in shaping the euro area, from laying the groundwork for the single currency to steering Greece through its sovereign‑debt crisis. He recounted how the crisis spurred...
Heatwaves, Coldwaves, Floods, and Droughts: The Short-Term Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Economic Activity
A new ECB working paper quantifies the short‑term macroeconomic fallout from heatwaves, coldwaves, floods and droughts across Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Using novel temperature and precipitation indices within country‑specific Bayesian VAR models, the authors find sizable effects on real...
Christina Papaconstantinou: Central Banks and Independence - a Test for Democracy
Central bank independence, enshrined in EU law, shields monetary policy from short‑term political pressure while mandating price stability. The European Central Bank (ECB) and national banks operate under the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU, granting them a high...
Oil Surge on Trump Blockade Warning Tests Stocks’ Resilience
Crude oil prices leapt to a four‑year peak after President Donald Trump suggested a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could endure for months. Brent crude surged as much as 7.3%, breaking the $126 per barrel mark. The...
Eurozone April Preliminary CPI +3.0% vs +2.9% Y/Y Expected
Eurozone consumer prices rose 3.0% year‑over‑year in April, the strongest pace since September 2023. The surge is driven primarily by a 10.9% jump in energy inflation, while core CPI held steady at 2.2% and services inflation remained sticky at 3.0%...
Eurozone Q1 Preliminary GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% Q/Q Expected
Eurozone Q1 GDP grew 0.1% quarter‑on‑quarter, missing the 0.2% forecast and slipping from the prior 0.2% gain. Year‑on‑year growth slowed to 0.8% versus the 0.9% consensus. At the same time, core CPI eased to 2.2% from 2.3%, indicating modest inflation...
The New Rules of Global Sourcing: How Automation and Geopolitics Are Reshaping Fashion Supply Chains
The fashion industry is confronting an aging factory workforce by accelerating automation, with large‑scale sewing robots now handling 60‑70% of outerwear and denim production in China and spreading to Bangladesh and Madagascar. Simultaneously, U.S. tariffs are reshaping sourcing strategies, prompting...
Burkhard Balz: Foundations of Resilience - the Role of Cash and the Digital Euro
Burkhard Balz highlighted that payment system resilience relies on both cash and a forthcoming digital euro. He explained cash’s proven role as a risk‑free, offline anchor, especially during crises, and outlined how the digital euro is being designed with offline...
World Bank Resurrects Industrial Policy: Ball Is in Southeast Asia’s Court
The World Bank has reversed its long‑standing opposition to industrial policy, declaring it a core component of national development strategies in its 2026 report. It cites three transformative trends—global value chains, green industrial policies, and AI—that require countries to upgrade...
Erik Thedéen: Monetary Policy Challenges in War Related Supply Shocks
Erik Thedéen, a BIS executive board member, warned that recent geopolitical events—U.S. tariffs introduced in early 2025, the war in Iran and prolonged supply‑chain disruptions—are testing the resilience of the global economy. He suggested that the post‑World‑War II "Pax Americana" stability may...
Bank-Friendly Rates Boost BBVA Buyback; Buy on Weakness
Macro: rate backdrop supports banks. BBVA starts €1.46bn buyback (up to 429.6m) May–Aug; venue caps. Risk: liquidity distortion/suspension. Trading insight: buy on weakness. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran Tensions Push Oil Above $110, Market Volatility Spikes
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-London ─────── U.S. oil prices surged above $110 per barrel amid potential military action against Iran. Iran maintains hardline stance on Strait of Hormuz control, increasing risk of extended blockade and oil supply disruptions. US Navy intercepted the 42nd...
Germany Q1 Preliminary GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% Q/Q Expected
Germany’s statistical office Destatis reported on April 30, 2026 that first‑quarter GDP grew 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, beating the 0.2% consensus forecast. The economy had expanded 0.2% in the previous quarter, indicating a modest acceleration. The data suggest a tentative rebound in...
Germany April Unemployment Change 20k vs 4k Expected
Germany's unemployment rose by 20,000 in April, pushing the total number of jobless to 3.006 million. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.4% after a revision to March figures, marking the highest level since July 2020. The Federal Employment Agency warned...
This Oil Shock Will Hit Asia Harder than the 1970s
The recent oil shock stemming from the Iran‑Strait of Hormuz crisis is reverberating across Asia more intensely than the 1970s oil crises. Jet fuel in Singapore has doubled, prompting airlines to trim May schedules by 10‑15%, while Japan’s subsidies only...
America’s Big New Aluminum Smelter Is Still Waiting on a Power Deal
The United Arab Emirates‑based Emirates Global Aluminium and Century Aluminum are moving ahead with a $4 billion, 750,000‑metric‑ton annual aluminum smelter in Oklahoma, the first new U.S. primary smelter since 1980. The plant would more than double domestic capacity but hinges...
Why a Budget and Rate Rise Could Make May Retail’s Crunch Month
May will be a make-or-break month for Australian retailers as the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates and the federal budget is slated for May 12. Inflation remains at 4.6% and consumer confidence has fallen to its...
Why Is Britain’s Economy so Stuck? It’s the Tension Between What Voters Want and What the Bond Markets Allow |...
UK politics is fragmenting as five parties vie for power, intensifying pressure to address a cost‑of‑living crisis. At the same time, bond market investors are demanding higher yields, with gilt yields above 5%—the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. The...
Scaling up a Tech Startup in Europe Is Hard — ‘EU Inc.’ Aims to Help
Europe churns out dozens of unicorns each year, yet most founders struggle to scale beyond national borders because of 27 distinct legal regimes. The European Commission’s new “EU Inc.” framework proposes a single, digital‑by‑default company structure that can be incorporated...
Ouch. The U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Just Hit 5% and Bitcoin May Pay the Price
U.S. 30‑year Treasury yields surged to 5%—the highest level since July 2025—after hawkish dissent within the Federal Reserve and a rally in oil prices. The spike makes long‑term bonds a near‑risk‑free alternative, prompting investors to shift capital away from risk assets...
Rising Yields Safe Until Recession Hits Deficits
See lots of reference to higher gilt yields and the threat to public finances. As long as nominal GDP is purring at +5% it doesn't matter. But if you have a recession, and a nominal slowdown, with automatic stabilisers blowing...
BOJ Faces 3% Core
BOJ risk scenario: core CPI ~3% in 2026–27 as oil $105, yen -10%, stocks -20%. Macro: sustained above-target inflation. Risk: rising inflation expectations. Trade: short-duration JGBs (JPY-hedged). — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Satyajit Das: The Re-Shaping of the Persian Gulf and Energy Markets
Satyajit Das argues that the Israel‑U.S. push against Iran is reshaping Gulf geopolitics and global energy markets. He warns that Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states face a stark choice: align with the U.S.‑Israel bloc or negotiate a pragmatic accommodation with...
Yen Rebounds on Intervention as US Eyes Iran Strike
Ahead of ECB and BOE outcome, the yen is in the spotlight. It has reversed higher after heightened verbal intervention by Japanese officials. Meanwhile, the US is reportedly considering new military strikes on Iran. Oil extends gains but...
Flexible Supply Chains May Soften UK Price Impact
Economic effects of the US/Israeli conflict with Iran are emerging for UK consumers and businesses. However, flexible supply chains may cushion price https://t.co/MNmgP7YtEG
Suez Canal to Benefit From Hormuz Chaos
CMA CGM has introduced the Ocean Rise Express (OCR) service, averaging 9,334 TEU, with its inaugural 8,488‑TEU vessel departing Shanghai in early February and now transiting the Suez Canal. Soaring bunker fuel costs and soft freight rates are prompting carriers...
Japanese 10‑Year Yield Hits 2.52%, Echoing Global Rise
Japanese 10-year yields hit a new post-1997 high of 2.52%. Longer-term yields are rising globally in tandem with surging oil prices, especially as companies and governments demonstrate a will to keep spending. https://t.co/cL61POetPv
China Eases Fuel Export Ban for Select Asian Buyers
Important development: China has given state-owned refiners the green light to export some gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel to a handful of regular customers (in Asia), signaling the country is effectively easing an earlier ban on shipments.
How to Win a Trade War: Book Launch and Discussion with Bown and Keynes
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is hosting an online launch for the new book *How to Win a Trade War* by trade experts Chad P. Bown and Soumaya Keynes. The event will feature a discussion with WSJ chief economics commentator Greg Ip, exploring...
Consensus on “Transitory” Inflation Proved Disastrously Wrong
Yes he let inflation escape but the whole "transitory" thing was one of the biggest consensus views of all time, largely because of what had happened in the previous decade. Nobody could imagine inflation being a problem anymore...
Powell Hailed as Fed Hero for Taming Inflation
This is going to annoy people (sorry...) but Powell is gonna be remembered as a hero at the Fed. Got inflation back down, delivered a soft landing, and stood up to enormous political pressure. Probably leaving at just the right...
Downside Risks Loom for EZ Q1 GDP Amid Spanish Slowdown
Risks are shifting to the downside for the EZ Q1 GDP print today, especially if Spanish growth cools more than expected and Ireland mean-reverts further.
North Korean Won Plummets 69%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by 69% against the USD over the past year. WESTERN MEDIA = CONTINUES TO FAIL TO COVER THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY....