Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Israel Rejects Ukraine Stolen Grain After EU Sanctions Warning
Israel’s Grain Importers Association refused entry to the Russian‑flagged vessel Panormitis, which was transporting about 6,000 tonnes of wheat valued at $7 million from occupied Ukrainian fields. The move came after the European Union warned Israeli companies that participation in the black‑market grain trade could trigger sanctions. Kyiv welcomed the decision, calling it a clear signal against buying stolen Ukrainian grain. The incident unfolded alongside reports that President Trump allegedly supported a cease‑fire for Putin’s Victory Day parade, adding a diplomatic twist to the grain dispute.
A New Economics for the 21st Century
The World Bank announced a reversal of its long‑standing opposition to industrial policy, signaling a new openness to government‑led economic strategies. The shift comes ahead of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings and reflects growing acknowledgment of evidence that...
Ontario Strikes Back With 10-Year Forest Roadmap to Reduce US Dependence
Ontario unveiled a 10‑year Roadmap to Protecting its Forest Sector, a defend‑adapt‑grow plan designed to safeguard roughly $15.5 billion USD in annual revenue and 154,000 jobs from soaring U.S. duties that have pushed export penetration to 45.16%. The strategy targets three...
Powell's Fed Tenure Remains a High-Stakes Gamble
NEW: Powell has often said the Fed faces "no risk-free paths" as it contends w/ economic shocks that lift inflation and dent growth. The same could be said for his momentous decision to stay on at the Fed as a...
Mark Carney’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Is a Throwback to a Harder-Working Canada
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Canada’s first national sovereign wealth fund, the Canada Strong Fund, with an initial $18.5 bn (CA$25 bn) endowment. The fund will be run by an independent Crown corporation and will focus on domestic infrastructure such as mining,...
Are Chinese Goods Still Reaching the U.S.?
Tariffs imposed on Chinese imports have cut headline U.S.–China trade volumes by roughly 30%, suggesting a successful decoupling on paper. Yet overall import volumes into the United States have barely budged, indicating that Chinese goods continue to flow through alternative...
AI, Tractors, and the Productivity Paradox
The article argues that AI’s lack of appearance in productivity statistics mirrors past “productivity paradox” episodes, where early technology adoption—exemplified by the kit era of steam engines, automobiles, and early computers—didn’t translate into measurable output until firms reorganized. It explains...
Why the U.A.E. Is Quitting OPEC
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC in May 2026, opting to set its own oil‑production policy. The decision comes as the regional war with Iran creates a strategic opening for the Emirates to operate independently. Analysts see...
GITEX Unveils Expansion Into Kenya with Inaugural 2026 Edition Set to Unlock US$2.4 Billion AI-Driven Economic Potential
GITEX, organized by KAOUN International, will launch its first Kenyan edition, Ai Everything Kenya x GITEX Kenya, in Nairobi from May 19‑21, 2026. The event is projected to unlock $2.4 billion of AI‑driven GDP growth for Kenya by 2030 and create...
Wine Industry Welcomes Zero-Tariff Access to China Market
South African wine bodies South Africa Wine and Wines of South Africa announced that China will apply a zero‑tariff regime to qualifying South African wine exports starting 1 May 2026. The tariff‑free status lasts for two years, expiring 1 May 2028, giving the sector...
Patagonia’s Glacier Tourism Hits Record Visitor Numbers as Peso Weakens
Argentina’s Los Glaciares National Park reported its highest ever visitor count, with international travelers flocking to the Perito Moreno Glacier. A weak Argentine peso and expanded low‑cost airline routes have made the region an affordable adventure destination, prompting a surge...
Watch: How Energy, China and Geopolitics Are Reshaping the Eurozone’s Goods Surplus
ING chief economist Bert Colijn warns that the eurozone’s long‑standing goods trade surplus is entering a more volatile phase. Rising energy costs, a slowdown in Chinese demand and heightened geopolitical tensions are eroding export margins, especially in Germany, Italy and the...
Yen Surge Exposes Central Banks' Ponzi Economy
Watching the Yen get manipulated stronger (And US Dollar weaker) this morning is just incredible. The side-effects globally is a testament to the fact we are in a centrally-planned ponzi economy where free markets don't really exist in the way have...
Taiwan's Q1 GDP Growth Hits 13.69%, Highest in 39 Years
Taiwan’s economy surged 13.69% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, the fastest expansion since 1987, driven by a 35.25% jump in AI‑related exports. Real imports rose 27.07% as manufacturers stocked raw materials, while private consumption grew 4.89% thanks to a government cash‑handout...
Powell Stays on Fed Board, Blocking Trump Nominee, as US and Indian Stocks React
Jerome Powell announced he will remain a Fed governor after his term as chair ends on May 15, effectively denying President Trump a seventh board seat. The decision comes as the Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% and sparked mixed...
China’s PMI Hits 50.3 in April, Defying Iran War Energy Spike
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index climbed to 50.3 in April, marking a second straight month of expansion even as oil prices surged due to the Iran war. The modest rise reflects strong export demand and a resilient industrial base,...
Pakistan Moves Toward a Sea-Denial Strategy
Pakistan’s navy has accelerated its sea‑denial posture by testing a 600 km range Taimoor air‑launched cruise missile, a 450 km P282 SMASH anti‑ship ballistic missile launched from a corvette, and the LY‑80(N) surface‑to‑air system. These weapons add precision strike and defensive layers...
U.S. Futures Hold Steady Ahead of Fed Decision as $750 B of Options Implied Moves Loom
U.S. equity index futures were flat this morning as investors braced for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and a wave of earnings from the so‑called Mag 7 tech giants. The seven companies together represent nearly 20% of the S&P 500 and...
Oil Hits $126 as Trump Threatens Iran, Adding Pressure to India's Economic Outlook
Oil prices surged to $126 a barrel after former President Donald Trump warned Iran of imminent strikes, while India’s finance ministry flagged a four‑fold shock—war, oil, rupee and rains—threatening its growth. The twin developments tighten inflationary pressures across emerging markets.
European Shares Brace for ECB and BOE Rate Holds as Oil Spike Fuels Inflation Fears
European equity markets are poised for a cautious open as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to keep rates unchanged. A sharp rise in oil prices, driven by Middle East tensions, is reigniting inflation worries...
Core PCE Hits 3.2%, Prompting Likely Fed Hike
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) came in at 3.2% in March, the highest level since November 2023. This was the 61st consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut in...
Powell Stays on Fed Board, Blocking Trump Appointee, as Treasury Yields Hit 5%
Jerome Powell announced he will remain a Fed governor after his term as chair ends on May 15, effectively denying President Donald Trump a seventh board seat. The Federal Open Market Committee kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% and...
Senate Advances Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair Nomination as Powell Stays on Board
The Senate Banking Committee cleared Kevin Warsh’s nomination to become Federal Reserve chair on a party‑line vote, even as outgoing chair Jerome Powell announced he will remain a governor after May 15, breaking a 78‑year precedent. The move intensifies the...
/file/attachments/2991/13938114_981998.jpg)
Lithuania Should Join US Coalition in Strait of Hormuz, President Says
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda announced he will present a U.S. proposal for Lithuania to join a Hormuz Strait navigation‑restoration coalition to the State Defence Council. The move follows a State Department cable urging allies to help safeguard freedom of navigation...
Taiwan Lawmaker Proposes Bitcoin Reserve to Premier and Central Bank
Legislator Dr. Ko Ju-Chun delivered a Bitcoin Policy Institute report to Premier Cho Jung-tai and Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-long, urging Taiwan to set aside a portion of its $602 bn foreign‑exchange reserves for Bitcoin. The move marks the first formal...
What Happens if the Blockade Holds?
The Strait of Hormuz has remained closed for three months, prompting Washington to ready its forces for a blockade that could last months. The closure already curtails roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil shipments, forcing carriers to seek alternative routes....
How Markets Have Responded to Military Action Against Iran : Tracking Crude Oil Prices and Volatility with FRED
The U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iranian nuclear and military sites on February 28, 2026, catching oil markets off guard. Immediate tanker disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz on March 1 caused Brent and WTI prices, along with the VIX, to...
Official Statistics: Database of Forecasts for the UK Economy
The UK Treasury has released two public databases that compile independent monthly forecasts for key macro‑economic and fiscal indicators. The first database aggregates forecasters’ predictions into average series for six core metrics—GDP, CPI, RPI, RPI‑ex‑MI, public‑sector net borrowing and claimant...
What Did BoC, Fed Meetings Tell Us About the Path Ahead for Interest Rates?
The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve both left policy rates unchanged, maintaining a 1.25‑percentage‑point gap. Each central bank faces distinct challenges: the U.S. enjoys solid growth but wrestles with sticky inflation, while Canada grapples with weaker GDP...
Core Inflation Rate Hit 3.2% in March
The Commerce Department reported that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% in March, pushing the 12‑month core inflation rate to 3.2%. Including food and energy, the overall CPI climbed 0.7% month‑over‑month and 3.5% year‑over‑year. First‑quarter GDP...
Japanese Travelers to China Drastically Decrease Amid Diplomatic Row
Japanese outbound travel to China has collapsed, falling about 90% since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November remarks linking Japan to a potential Taiwan conflict. The sharp decline, driven by mass booking cancellations and airline flight cuts, coincides with a reciprocal...
Iran Blockade Prediction Matches Current Brent Surge; Little Upside Left
In this post from back in March, I calculated that an Iran blockade would cause Brent to rise 80% from pre-war levels. That's exactly where we are now based on the July Brent future. The case for oil prices to...
PCE Inflation Peaks at 3.5% Amid Iran Conflict
JUST IN: PCE Inflation jumped to 3.5% in March, the highest in three years (since May 2023). This is a direct result of the war in Iran. And the pain will almost certainly be worse in April and (likely) May. Core...
Iran War Puts BoE, ECB Back On The Hot Seat
Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank left policy rates unchanged as the Iran‑Israel conflict fuels higher energy prices and inflation pressures. The BoE’s 8‑1 vote kept rates steady despite UK CPI rising to 3.3% and a...
US Sees Limited Economic Impact From Hormuz Blockade
pardon the flippancy, but from a US macroeconomic perspective, i do think the Strait of Hormuz blockade’s impact is limited. more importantly, i believe this is how POTUS is thinking about it. always great catching up with the Politico Morning Money team...
Markets Stuck in Lower Lows Amid Stagnant Fed
Oil at $126 CPI at 3.3% Fed frozen ETF outflows back BTC stuck at $76k Lower lows.
Nikkei Confirms Material Market Intervention Occurred Today
The Nikkei is reporting that material intervention did take place today. It cites unidentified govt official.
War Saves Fed From Failed Inflation Forecast
Yep, though the Fed will never admit they had a failing inflation forecast. The war bailed them out.
Lagarde Signals Two Rate Hikes in March Forecast
Lagarde basically underwriting the idea that the baseline forecasts in March includes two rate hikes
AI Spending Won’t Shield Economy From Recession
Q1 GDP is out, and the strongest piece of the economy is business investment (data center construction and AI spending). People will try to tell you AI can keep us out of a recession. Don't believe them. The facts say otherwise. https://t.co/uRz236P0fY
ECB Delays Decision, Promises Review Next Month
The ECB is "not pre-committing" to any decision, but it is "bound to revisit" the situation next month. Hope you you picked up on the nuance.
Business Investment Outpaces Consumer Spending in Q1 GDP
Business investment contributed **more** to GDP in Q1 than consumer spending. This is an AI economy now. Business investment contribution to Q1 GDP: 1.48 Personal consumption contribution to Q1 GDP: 1.08 (Joey's great chart shows the biz investment in green vs. consumption in yellow)
Yen Jumps 3% on Speculation of Japanese Intervention
Yen intervention? Bloomberg: "The yen surged as much as 3% as traders speculated Japan is intervening in the foreign-exchange market, hours after officials delivered a “final” warning to investors against selling the currency" https://t.co/ePYGtzQpwG
Lagarde Says “Stagflation” No Longer Applies This Time
Lagarde (only slightly paraphrased): we don't use the term stagflation because this time is different
U.S. Debt Surpasses GDP, Tops 100% Threshold
The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, crossing a once-unthinkable threshold, by @RichardRubinDC @WSJ. As of March 31, publicly held federal debt equaled 100.2% of 12-month trailing nominal GDP, up from 99.5% on Sept. 30. ...
Lagarde Signals Hawkish Shift, Rate Hike on Table
Here's @lagarde's hawkish signal: "we are certainly moving away from our baseline". The unanimous decision to remain on hold was based on "insufficient information, but a rate hike was also discussed today.
U.S. Export Sales Meet Expectations; Corn, Beans, Wheat Strong
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. export sales met trade expectations. Corn stayed above average for the time of year, led by Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela & unknown. China led in net bean sales (though most were switched from unknown), Egypt was 2nd. Old-crop...
Lagarde Admits Uncertainty, Confirms Drift From Baseline
Lagarde: we don't know where exactly we are relative to the baseline scenario; we do know we are moving away.
Economist's Forecast Proven: Hormuz Strait Still Closed
The Economist cover is right this time [if Hormuz remains closed, which is still is] https://t.co/s9dyaHjaCU
Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since 1969
*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 189,000 IN APRIL 25 WEEK; EST. 212K This is the lowest reading since September 1969! (Note: this week is subject to revisions) https://t.co/E7TDSpivny