Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
OPEC’s crude output jumped 640,000 barrels per day in February, the steepest rise since June, driven largely by Saudi Arabia’s production increase. The kingdom lifted output by roughly 340,000 bpd to 10.34 MMbpd and later signaled an additional boost of about 782,000 bpd. The surge comes as the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran has disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent toward $100 a barrel. Meanwhile, the IEA coordinated a 400‑million‑barrel release from emergency reserves to temper the supply shock.
Emerging markets down 14% from February highs. The EM rally was built on dollar weakness. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil rewrote the script. Oil at $100 is devastating for importers like India, South Korea, and Turkey. Even exporters need...
For those of us fortunate enough to be far away and out of the line of fire, the impacts of the war in Iran are economic. Why is the war making the price of so many things more expensive? #canada🇨🇦...
The week ahead is dominated by high‑profile diplomatic and monetary events, starting with a US‑China meeting in Paris that will discuss extending the tariff truce and a 25 million‑ton soybean purchase agreement. Nvidia’s GTC will showcase its Vera Rubin GPU roadmap...
Ugly game theoretics at play in Iran. Teheran has found its pain point in Hormuz, Russia is happy as it gets to sell its 'sanctioned oil', China is flapping like a kite in a hurricane, Europe has an incentive to...
The outbreak of the Iran war has jolted East Asian markets, exposing the region’s heavy reliance on Middle‑East oil imports. A trade‑risk ranking flags the Philippines and Vietnam as the most vulnerable, while China continues sourcing from Tehran and Russia...
Don't stare at spot noisy reported economic data. Answer these questions at a high level. Directionally not precisely. Is the U.S. labor market healthy and labor is in demand Is the population growing Is the 6 month to a...
It actually doesn’t make it a moot point. Bc single most important variable in global markets is relative level of fiat currencies. If you only care about gold, consider yourself fortunate to be in the .0001% of people on the...
The ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran is beginning to ripple through the global energy market, prompting concerns about oil shortages and higher prices. A panel on Washington Week with The Atlantic highlighted rising gasoline costs and the lack of a...
Excellent. In FTPL, one can interpret the slope as "what fraction of the deficits did people think would be repaid by later surpluses or lower interest costs?" and the error term as variation from a common value. A slope <...
Trump's attack on Kharg was an act of desperation He needed a quick "win" to offset the perception that he's lost control of the war Opening Hormuz could take months or longer Oil & financial markets won't wait The War IS out of his...
The Trump administration is launching a series of Section 301 investigations and new duties to recoup roughly $1.6 trillion in tariff revenue lost after a Supreme Court ruling. The probes will examine 16 economies for excess factory capacity and dozens more for...
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The Federal Reserve sets the U.S. federal funds rate, an overnight benchmark that shapes domestic liquidity, inflation, and employment. LIBOR, by contrast, is a London‑based multi‑currency benchmark derived from bank submissions and has long guided global short‑term lending. While both...
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said India’s economy remains resilient despite the Iran‑US‑Israel war, though a short‑term dip in activity is expected. He cited strong fundamentals and a projected 7%‑plus growth rate for the next fiscal year. State Bank of...
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The U.S. dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, accounting for about 57% of disclosed reserves in Q3 2025, down from a peak of 72% in 2001. IMF data show the euro (20%), yen (6%), pound sterling (5%), Canadian dollar (3%)...
This week’s Stay Tuned lineup features former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein discussing the economic fallout of the Iran war, lessons from the 2008 crisis, market outlook and why CEOs should steer clear of politics. A separate episode examines the...
Betting markets have lifted the implied probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 following the onset of Gulf War III, signaling heightened concern over an oil‑price shock. Although the implied recession odds have eased slightly since their peak, they remain well...
Prices for key compound‑semiconductor metals have surged, with tungsten, tantalum and molybdenum doubling and gallium climbing 123% to $2,100 per kilogram. The spike follows China’s late‑2024 gallium export ban to the United States and is amplified by the Middle East...
The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving up oil and gas prices, prompting Bangladesh to ration fuel and face long queues at stations. Export routes are jeopardized by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while higher shipping costs and...
James Fok, chief commercial officer of CMU OmniClear, uses the 2026 Hong Kong budget as a springboard to argue that the city must build new physical and digital bridges with mainland China. He contends that deeper infrastructure ties will reinforce Hong Kong’s...
The US struck Iran's Kharg Island last night — the hub for 90% of Iran's oil exports. Oil jumped $5 a barrel. The S&P 500 flipped negative. Gold fell. And Bitcoin? It dropped 3.5% from its session high and held...
A case study in how tariffs can change the bilateral trade balance but not the global trade balance -- the US is now importing a ton of computers, but essentially zero of those are registering in customs as Chinese made 1/...
Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices triggered a broad market sell‑off, prompting panic‑driven declines in large‑cap Indian stocks. Sunny Agrawal of SBI Capital Markets argues the fall reflects exaggerated risk assumptions rather than weakened fundamentals, leaving valuations attractive for long‑term...
🚨Mar 14 Hormuz Update🚨 1️⃣Confirmed attacks: 20 2️⃣Attacks last 24 hrs:0 3️⃣Passage last 24 hrs: 2 4️⃣Average passage: 138 5️⃣Electronic interference: widespread https://t.co/nQ4ZTet45o
Tune in tomorrow when I’ll be discussing today’s energy crisis created by the Iran war with @FareedZakaria on GPS @CNN.
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgess announced that the United States can provide a reliable, affordable and secure energy supply to the Asia‑Pacific amid the Middle East war that has disrupted oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration’s...
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview March 13, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/2iKkxzCJa9
YARDENI: “.. three days after the war began, we concluded it might last longer, leading to a 10%-15% correction, and warned that we could not rule out a bear market. “.. we've become concerned that a weakening US economy might exacerbate...
A mental model for how to think about the current oil shock: As I said I’m sure 10 different economists have 10 differing econometric models on what price that flip occurs but you get the idea
🚨Strait of Hormuz Disruptions🚨 Implications of Global Trade and Development by @UNCTAD 1️⃣Energy Surge 2️⃣Soaring Shipping Crisis 3️⃣Insurance Spikes 4️⃣Fertilizer & Food Security 5️⃣Insurance Spikes & Higher Borrowing Costs https://t.co/SxnLDTDmwG
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
Catch me at 8:05am on the economic impact of the war in the Middle East #bbcwales #sundaysupplement Listen at: https://t.co/WBmMlC57rn https://t.co/TZIU8SNTCQ
There are parallels now to the lead-up to the last financial crisis, writes @JeffSnider_EDU Leverage is high, funds are gating withdrawals, and officials say it’s contained. Now add an oil shock. The range of outcomes is narrowing fast #OilMarkets #FinancialCrisis #CreditMarkets...
Free trade for my inputs; tariffs for my competitors. A tale as old as time.
Paying in Yuan for Hormuz passage doesn't work, writes @biancoresearch Oil markets run on liquidity and deep capital markets. China’s financial system can’t absorb global oil flows, There’s no way to verify settlement currency at sea. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #DollarSystem #Geopolitics
One of the things I learned after Russia invaded Ukraine is that many commodity analysts are in bed with oil producers and ship owners. They forecast terrible oil price spikes and financial Armageddon to keep the West from being tough....
Wrong, it's not an 'ancient and rampant evil.' It's blowback and the tragic and predictable result of U.S. and Israeli foreign policy. Can we stop pretending that our actions have no consequences?
Did the Greek tanker owner pay in Chines yuan? What will Iran’s payment demand mean to the petrodollar? And the quantity of ships stuck in the Strait?
Iran telling civilians to get out of UAE ports. After the attack on Kharg. What will it mean to maritime, the Strait, and oil?
Further proof we have an inflation problem, even before Iran. Core PCE services (ex-housing) shows more and more broadening out of higher prices. Proportion of 105 categories with 3%+ y/y inflation Dec '19: 26% Jun '22: 69% Jan '25: 53% Jan '26: 59% https://t.co/nA65sTTb6A
"One thing becoming clear: tariffs on foreign imports didn't result in an increase in manufacturing payrolls (and may have directly resulted in the opposite)." 🙀 https://t.co/zvrbKgPxg3 https://t.co/h5DLBYPjf6
‘The largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market’: IEA’s take on the Hormuz crisis https://t.co/H9zKo9tCi4
"The US Department of Commerce has cut anti-dumping duties on 13 Italian pasta brands following an investigation into alleged export undercutting, Italy's Foreign Ministry announced." https://t.co/2KrLcSuyUY https://t.co/7S8ssbunhj
Today felt like a textbook risk-off session. Weak GDP revision. VIX back above 20. Short-term breadth rolling over. Dollar up. Rates pushing toward 4.3%. Oil surging. In CHART THIS I walk through what’s actually changing — and what isn’t. Six viewer questions. Clear levels. No drama. Watch...
GS: A moderate growth shock could see the S&P 500 drop to 6300, while a severe oil supply shock could trigger a 19% decline to 5400. https://t.co/87Poznn4vR
New weekly drops. The war's disruption shapes the investment climate. Hawkish holds by seven of the 8 G10 central banks that meet. RBA could hike. Brazil had indicated a cut before the war. Still seems reasonable....
GS: A hawkish rate move has coincided with a decline in the market's pricing of economic growth https://t.co/JO5RIgmjDP
I missed this project44 press release from earlier this week - Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers 360% Surge in Ocean Freight Diversions https://t.co/u3NrIui3y3 project 44 Insights - https://t.co/fZoIuMEoDt
Iranian tankers back to loading at Kharg this morning despite yesterday’s US strikes on the island, which currently stages the vast majority of Iranian exports.
Week Ahead: Eight of the G10 Central Banks Meet, Maybe One Moves: The Middle East War dominates the investment climate. The inflationary implications are first order considerations and there has been a large swing in expectations of central bank policy…...
