Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
SONAR Sitrep: US Industrials, Freight Unexpected Winners in Iran War
The Iran conflict is unexpectedly boosting U.S. industrial competitiveness by flooding pipelines with associated natural gas, driving Henry Hub prices down while global benchmarks rise. Lower energy costs are giving American manufacturers a structural advantage in chemicals, metals, plastics and defense. Freight data shows flat‑deck volumes up 42% versus a six‑month average and rates soaring 45% to $3.97 per mile, outpacing dry‑van growth. The shift is reshaping domestic supply chains and freight pricing dynamics.
Economic Fury and Claims of Victory
Three weeks after a ceasefire, the United States has escalated economic pressure on Iran through a naval blockade and a new sanctions campaign dubbed “Economic Fury.” Tehran, already financially strained, has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S....
Canadian GDP Grew, Most Industries Did Not—Credit Rises, While Jobs Fall
Canada’s real GDP nudged up 0.2% in February, marking a fourth straight month of growth, but the expansion was confined to just eight of the twenty major sectors. Manufacturing led the surge with a 1.8% rebound, largely thanks to auto‑plant...
$6 Gas in California Signals New Phase of the Global Energy Crunch
California’s average gasoline price has surged past $6 a gallon, the highest level since October 2023, while diesel now averages $7.48 per gallon. Nationally, gasoline hovers around $4.30 per gallon, keeping the politically sensitive $4 threshold in focus. Crude oil...
CBP’s Tariff Refund Portal Is Performing Better than Expected
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will start issuing refunds for invalidated Trump‑era tariffs as early as May 11, after launching the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) portal on April 20. In its first week, the system accepted roughly 21%...
Treasury's Hidden QE Fuels Reckless Economic Overheating
Policymakers are running the economy so unbelievably hot right now that I am starting to think it has approached or surpassed recklessness. The Treasury has completely taken over control of the money supply and financial conditions with their ongoing ATI/YCC...
Ethan Harris: Core Concerns, Fed Follies
The Loadstar premium piece aggregates recent Federal Reserve developments, noting a series of modest rate hikes, a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, and mixed inflation signals that keep markets uneasy. Minutes from the last policy meeting reveal that a...
China Dominates the World’s Lithium Supply. The U.S. Just Found 328 Years’ Worth in Its Own Backyard
The US Geological Survey estimates the Appalachian region contains about 2.3 million metric tons of lithium oxide, enough to replace 328 years of U.S. lithium imports at 2023 levels. Roughly 1.43 million tons are concentrated in the Carolinas, with another 900,000 tons in...
Cuban Peso Falls 30%, Still 5th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Cuban peso ranks as the WORLD'S 5TH WORST CURRENCY. The peso has depreciated by 30% against the USD in the past year. Given the US sanctions and blockade on Cuba, it’s surprising that the peso has done as...
#171 - Michael Saylor - Bitcoin Is The Only Way To Win In The AI Economy
In this episode, Michael Saylor argues that the relentless 7% annual expansion of the dollar supply is eroding wealth for those without assets, while a forthcoming AI-driven economy will create unprecedented prosperity for owners of scarce digital capital like Bitcoin....
The Iran War’s Ramifications Have Only Just Begun
The eight‑week Iran war has left Tehran with practical control of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly 20% of global oil and LNG. Although a cease‑fire is in place, negotiations are stalled and the strait remains effectively...
Oil Price Shock Ripples Through Inflation, Rates, Stock Valuations
The Iran-Hormuz story is not "just geopolitics" Here is the money chain Supply threat pushes crude up higher crude feeds inflation expectations higher inflation pressure keeps rates sticky sticky rates compress growth-stock multiples So even if your portfolio has zero oil names...you still feel this through...
What Does The Post-War Future Of The US Dollar Look Like? | Brent Johnson
In a recent livestream, Brent Johnson—creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory and CEO of Santiago Capital— dissected how the US‑Iran conflict could shape the post‑war trajectory of the U.S. dollar. He argued that while America’s overwhelming military edge in the...
IMO Carbon Plan for Shipping Faces Growing Revolt as U.S. Courts ‘Silent Majority’
The United States, led by Federal Maritime Commission Chair Laura DiBella, is urging IMO member states to consider alternatives to the stalled Net Zero Framework (NZF), a global carbon‑pricing scheme backed by the EU. DiBella warned that the NZF could...
Singapore's Gold Imports From Dubai Hit Record Amid War
singapore is pulling in dubai gold as middle east war drags on. Imports of gold into Singapore from Dubai hit a record last month
US Q1 Growth Defies Shutdown, AI‑Driven Investment Surges
The US Economy grew by 2% in Q1 despite shutdown as business investment grew by most in 3yrs on AI and consumer spending grew by a better than expected 1.6%. I can literally hear some ppls' teeth gnashing (thoughts and...
Container Rates Slip for Third Week as Oversupply Weighs on Market
Spot container rates fell for a third consecutive week, with Drewry's World Container Index dropping 1% to $2,216 per 40‑foot container on April 30. The decline reflects excess vessel capacity and weak demand outweighing geopolitical risk premiums from the Strait of...
US Economy Grows by 2pc in First Quarter
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 2% annualized rate in the first quarter, driven primarily by a rebound in government spending and a sharp rise in artificial‑intelligence‑related investment. Private investment jumped 8.7%,...
Indonesian Exports to China Rise, Cushioning the Blow of Disrupted Middle East Shipments
Indonesian seafood exporters are turning to China as shipments to the Middle East stall amid the Iran‑Israel conflict. Chinese demand for high‑value species such as grouper, snapper and shrimp remains strong, keeping export volumes robust. Indonesia’s seafood trade to China...
Energy Surge Signals Crisis, Yet Offers 10x Gains
I'm personally afraid of the coming 3-5 years for the economy and our society. The economy has become fragile amid global uncertainties. A sudden rise in gold isn't a signal of a strong economy; it's the exact opposite. Additionally, the rise in energy...
When the World Order Turns Upside Down – Where Does the Nordics Stand?
The article argues that the post‑Cold‑War world order anchored by the United States and the dollar is unraveling, giving way to a multipolar system led by China, Russia and an expanding BRICS bloc. In this new landscape, the Nordics—traditionally beneficiaries...
Interest Payments Overtake Defense Spending, Debt Soars
For the first time since the late 1920s, the U.S. is spending more on interest payments than on national defense. This isn't new—it's been true for two years. However, worth a reminder given the Trump administration's proposed $1.5 trillion defense...
Massive USD Deposits Make Swap Lines Unnecessary, Says Munger
"Invert...always invert." -Charlie Munger For example, w/ $14T in USD deposits offshore, why would the UAE (or any nation) ever need a USD swap line? If a guy w/a $14B bank deposit needed a home equity line just to pay his bills,...
China’s African Mineral Strategy Threatens Kansas City’s Rail Hub, Endangering 30,000 Jobs
China’s long‑term investment in African mineral logistics, including a $1.4 billion upgrade of the Tanzania‑Zambia railway, could divert cobalt and copper away from Kansas City’s classification yards. A U.S. $753 million loan for Angola’s Lobito Corridor aims to counter the shift, but...
Rates Paused, Borrowing Costs May Rise Soon
Interest rates on hold….but for how long? Here’s the lowdown on what could be a ahead for borrowing costs… #finance #money #costofliving #inflation #moneytok
UK Whiskey Tariff Likely Violates Section 122 Rules
Two quick things: 1) We had free trade in whiskey/whisky before... 2025 2) Pretty sure this UK tariff is now under Section 122, which is supposedly needed for a "balance of payments" crisis and definitely wouldn't allow for this kind of carveout.
Fed Holds Rates as Powell Stays, Raising Stakes for Stock Traders
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged in a divided vote and announced that Chair Jerome Powell will remain on the Board as a governor after his term ends. Powell's unprecedented move and the record four dissenters signal a...
Fitch: U.S. Debt Levels Exceed Peer AA Nations
"Fitch Warns US Debt Burden Is ‘Far Above’ Other AA Rated Nations" None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/bA3E6txTHG https://t.co/jfpiadGKWT
US-China Trade Update: Imports, Exports, and Fentanyl Trends
Are you in the Washington, DC area on May 6, 2026, from 9:00–10:15 AM? Then JOIN US in person @PIIE for... “US-China Trade Update: Imports, Exports, Fentanyl Flows, and Beyond" ⚠️Warning. There will be charts. 📈📉📊 *REGISTER* for the in-person event here: https://t.co/y32DpPY3wJ
USGS Finds $64 Billion Lithium Deposit in Appalachians, Could Cut Imports by 328 Years
The U.S. Geological Survey disclosed a 2.5‑million‑ton lithium reserve in the Appalachian Mountains valued at roughly $64.4 billion. The find could replace 328 years of U.S. lithium imports, bolstering mineral security and challenging China’s dominance in the battery supply chain.
S&P 500 Surges Past All-Time High Despite Energy Crisis
The S&P 500 shrugs off global energy crisis and hits a new all-time high https://t.co/VUKIJmA8mW
US Growth Rebounds, Inflation Resurges; Iran Uncertainty Looms
Came into this year saying US growth would reaccelerate and inflation would become an issue again. Seems pretty clear that was right.... now we just need some clarity on this Iran situation to understand if the first part is still...
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Mortgage Rates Likely to Remain Stable Amid Political Tension
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, a decision that keeps mortgage rates anchored despite a sharply divided FOMC vote. The move comes as Chairman Jerome Powell announced he will remain on the...
China's Yuan Strengthens as Petrodollar Talk Dominates
There has been too much talk of petrodollars. And not enough talk of Chinese dollars China isn't really de-dollarizing. Rather the contrary. A new blog 1/ https://t.co/6NT3Onlp9U
Trump’s Horm
Will Trump’s Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blunder have its place not only in US history but global too? What about in maritime and supply chain?
Japan’s March Industrial Output Slips 0.5% as Middle East Conflict Spikes Oil Prices
Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported that industrial output fell 0.5% in March, the first monthly decline after a 2% drop in February. The slide reflects higher crude oil prices and supply‑chain disruptions linked to the Middle East...
Private‑sector Wage Growth Eases to 3.2% in Q1
Private-sector pay growth decelerated ever so slightly in Q1 when looking at wages and salaries for private sector workers ex-incentive paid occupations. It was +3.2% in Q1 from a year earlier, vs 3.4% in Q4 and +3.6% in the same quarter...
Models Predicted Higher Inflation, No Cuts Pre‑War
We've positioned our models for a world with a little higher inflation and probably no cuts. We were saying this even before the war started. This chart from @sam_gatlin is quite interesting.
Oil Futures Surge as Fed’s Hawkish Tone Pushes Treasury Yields Higher
Crude oil futures jumped after the Federal Reserve issued a hawkish post‑meeting statement, citing elevated energy prices, while Treasury yields rose on the sell‑off in bonds. The dual shock sparked heightened activity in oil and Treasury options as traders priced...
RBI's Derivatives Intervention Hits Record $103B Dollar Short
Rajan showed them the way in and not the way out. The Indian central bank’s intervention in the derivatives market rose sharply in March with its net short dollar position surging to a record $103 billion. https://t.co/nieEKFI3Wc
Cross‑border Debt Now Props the Dollar, Fuels Deficits
These days, the dollar is supported less by the US Navy, and more by all the crossborder dollar-denominated debt outstanding. But the real punchline is that it's also the source of the US structural trade deficits and industrial stagnation.
Oil Prices Spike as US‑Iran Conflict Deepens, Raising Stakes for Emerging Markets
Brent crude surged to $126.41 a barrel and U.S. WTI to $108 as the United States escalated its blockade of Iran, prompting a $25 bn Pentagon cost estimate for the war. The price shock is straining emerging‑market importers and reshaping global...
Brent Hits Four-Year High, Just as Predicted
Brent crude prices just HIT A FOUR-YEAR HIGH. I'M NOT SURPRISED. As I predicted on @davidlin_TV on March 29th, crude oil prices would SPIKE by the end of APRIL. IT’S APRIL 30th, and PRICES HAVE SPIKED. https://t.co/7Tvnl0ojr1
Brazil Slashes Rates Again, Down to 14.5%
Global Central Bank Update: -Brazil cut rates for the second month in a row, 25 bps move down to 14.50%. https://t.co/a53O5fczcP
Powell to Remain Fed Governor, Blocking Trump’s Board Appointment
Jerome Powell announced he will remain a Federal Reserve governor after his chairmanship ends on May 15, denying President Donald Trump a chance to install a new appointee on the board. The decision comes as the Fed kept its benchmark...
Supply‑side Pressures Threaten US Productivity and Wages
Check out @PrestonMui's latest: The Supply-side May Spoil Warsh's Productivity Story The US economy is facing multiple pressures: tariffs, AI bottlenecks, war...Now healthcare costs are eating into wages Productivity was poor in Q4. Will be in Q1 too https://t.co/RBInolTCWS https://t.co/OAVJH4tUc4
Rate Cuts Done, Fed May Hike by 2027
The interest rate cutting cycle is officially over. With previously forecast rate cuts off the table, the market is now pricing in 50% odds the Fed will hike rates by April 2027. Position accordingly. https://t.co/LBGUwo4wXJ
Pentagon Cites $25 Bn Price Tag as US Escalates Iran Blockade, Lawmakers Demand Answers
Pentagon Comptroller Jules Hurst told the House Armed Services Committee the United States has already spent about $25 bn on the Iran war, mainly on munitions. The figure fuels a heated hearing where Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended the blockade while...
Tariffs Drive Policy; Deny It, Adopt Hawkish Stance
If you don't think this is driven by tariffs, then you probably should be a lot more hawkish in your monetary policy views (all else equal)
Germany’s Green Rush and Russophobia Sink Economy
The combination of Germany’s GREEN MADNESS and RUSSOPHOBIA has PUT IT IN THE TANK. https://t.co/Hdi4vi7Rfu