Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
War‑driven uncertainty in Europe and the Middle East has pushed the 10‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) real yield to its highest level in a decade, setting the stage for this week’s Treasury auction. The surge reflects heightened inflation expectations and a premium for safety amid geopolitical turmoil. Investors are re‑evaluating demand for TIPS as yields climb, potentially softening auction pricing. The market’s reaction will influence broader fixed‑income strategies and the Treasury’s financing costs for the coming year.
The United States and China launched high‑level trade talks in Paris, setting the stage for a Trump‑Xi summit in Beijing at the end of March. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party signaled a cautious stance on a potential Self‑Defense Forces ship‑escort...
India used to import 50% of its oil from Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE (blue). All this oil had to transit the Strait of Hormuz and - recently - this is down to zero. It's this massive hole that's...
The All India Plastics Manufacturers Association (AIPMA) warned that polymer prices have surged 59% in just 11 days amid the West Asia conflict, threatening the viability of India’s plastic‑processing sector. Over 90% of the roughly 50,000 units in the industry...
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Turkey’s inflation remains above 30% as the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) paused its tightening cycle on March 12, sparking criticism from analysts who argue a rate hike was warranted. The country’s $50 bn annual energy import bill and...
I was reading Ziad Daoud and Dina Esfandiary's analysis of how this war will change the Gulf. They argue that just as the 1990 invasion of Kuwait created a deep psychological rupture, the current missile strikes are threatening to repeat that...
India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar began a two‑day visit to Brussels, the first high‑level Indian delegation since the EU‑India free‑trade agreement was signed in January. He will meet EU High Representative Kaja Kallas, attend the EU Foreign Affairs Council,...
🔴Watch oil prices: In past geopolitical conflicts, stocks were negatively correlated with oil. The longer the conflict lasted and the higher oil prices went, the deeper the drawdown, with the worst being -19.3% during the 2011 Libyan Revolution 👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-iea-has-proposed-the-largest-emergency-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-in-history
JPMorgan warned that Brent crude staying above $90 a barrel could trigger a 10‑15% correction in the S&P 500, creating a domino effect across global equities. The bank estimates the equity decline would shave about 1% off U.S. consumer spending through...
Economist Steve Keen has released a new video commentary on the Iran war, outlining its likely economic and geopolitical repercussions. He apologizes for recent posting gaps, citing a heavy workload and progress on his forthcoming book, "How Economists Will Destroy...
Escalating Gulf tensions have reignited a sharp rally in oil, with some analysts speculating prices could approach $250 per barrel. The piece ties this surge to a concurrent rise in gold, arguing that the gold‑oil ratio serves as a key...
Here it comes. Covering : - US Strike on Iran's Kharg Island - Impact on USOIL & trade idea with targets - Why Gold ( XAUUSD ) isn't moving higher & whats next for it - Stagflation update & its impact - US Indexes update &...
In fact the high inflation and run on the pound that caused the bailout were the result of the previous Tory government's reckless fiscal and monetary loosening in a "dash for growth", a banking crisis caused by the Tory government's...
Kevin O'Leary warned that Iran's threat to mine the two‑mile‑wide Strait of Hormuz underscores the world's ongoing reliance on oil. He highlighted that oil is the only commodity used across every sector, including by adversarial nations. O'Leary noted that securing...
‼️Global debt CRISIS is reaching INSANE levels: World debt SPIKED +$29 trillion in 2025, to $348 trillion, the highest EVER. This was the 2nd LARGEST annual increase in HISTORY. Global government debt hit a record $107 trillion.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20-a312
The 2026 Supply Chain Checklist warns that volatility—from tariffs and geopolitical conflict to cyber threats and climate shocks—has become the norm. Legacy, siloed systems leave firms exposed to costly errors and missed opportunities. The checklist offers a practical roadmap that...
Diesel and gasoline prices in the Philippines are set to spike again this week, driven by the ongoing war in the Middle East. The Mean of Platts Singapore benchmark, combined with freight costs, suggests diesel could rise up to P23...
Oil is the only commodity on Earth used in every single sector of every economy. Even our adversaries need it. The Strait of Hormuz is two miles wide, and Iran is threatening to mine it. Whether securing it costs $2...
I know it won't come in time for the global economy to avoid a recession, but the world WILL eventually pry open Hormuz one way or another. Iran won't have this card indefinitely. This is not the White Mountains of...
The outbreak of a protracted war with Iran has lifted oil prices and triggered supply chain disruptions, dragging global equities down 5.5% and delivering the worst monthly performance since 2022. Asian markets have borne the brunt, while airlines and shipping...
March 15 (Reuters) - Aluminium Bahrain https://t.co/oYsWepGMNg, known as Alba, said on Sunday it had initiated a shutdown of three aluminium smelting lines accounting for 19% of its capacity to preserve business continuity amid ongoing disruption in the Strait of...
Greece' shipping oligarchs fatally undermined the maritime services ban that should've been in the EU's 20th sanctions package. They're loyal only to money. If that means helping Putin, they fall over themselves doing it. No one should celebrate them... https://t.co/LOEwsvkjYG https://t.co/xUJgZVccK2
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q4 2025 shows a modest slowdown, trailing the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projection. Goldman Sachs, assuming a 21‑day Strait of Hormuz disruption, trims its growth estimate from 2.5 % to 2.2 % year‑over‑year. The SPF survey, collected...
Press the translate button. Remember what I mentioned before: The resumption of oil exports form Northern Iraq was forced by the Trump administration. None of the parties are happy, especially the KRG.
USA printing trillions to rebuild Gaza ($17B+ pledged), Venezuela ($100B+ oil), Cuba & Iran. Dollar debasement accelerates → inflation hedge essential. Gold & silver miners: leveraged upside on rising metals, undervalued now. https://t.co/X9WvAtyZxp
The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Deputy Prime Minister Daniel Mukoko Samba met with the Professional Group of Petroleum Product Distributors on March 10, 2026 to assess global oil market volatility. The discussion focused on the recent Brent crude surge...
COLUMN: While the price of Brent and WTI crudes remain well below their record high, the cost of fuel oil has surged above the 2022 and 2008 peaks. The surge is a big problem for the workhorse of globalisation: the container...
NEW: The US-led peace process in Ukraine is fizzling out because Trump is losing interest and his war against Iran is easing pressure on Russia. “A pause has indeed appeared in the talks. The Americans have other priorities,” Kremlin spox...
Global central banks are preparing to evaluate the economic fallout from the two‑week US‑Iran conflict. In the coming week, policymakers from the United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, Japan and other major jurisdictions will announce decisions that could signal a new...
As they said at the White House, "who could have imagined Iran would block the Straits of Hormuz?"
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 66.2%/yr. That's the world's THIRD HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/8Dw75zObyw
Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan told the AP that while no formal US‑Iran negotiations are underway, Tehran appears willing to engage in back‑channel talks. Ankara has tried to mediate, even offering Istanbul as a venue, but Iran rejected discussions on its...
⭕️A large number of LNG carriers were diverted from Europe to Asia. Will China restarts buying US LNG? Map form @Kpler I added the red arrows
By the way, by giving a waiver for Russian crude on water to be sold freely on the market, Trump single-handedly eliminated the "price cap." The "price cap" was one of the lowest-IQ policy decisions in recent years.
Jet fuel prices have spiked to $150‑$200 a barrel after the U.S.–Israel attack on Iran, more than doubling pre‑conflict levels. The surge, compounded by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is forcing airlines such as Qantas, SAS and Air...
Betting markets are seeing the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by the end of the month deflate to an extremely skeptical 15%... https://t.co/Brj4lTcqSK
The second map (most of the world moving towards China and away from the US) is post-tariffs but pre-invasion-of-Iran. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Probably not in a good direction for the US.
OPEC’s crude output jumped 640,000 barrels per day in February, the steepest rise since June, driven largely by Saudi Arabia’s production increase. The kingdom lifted output by roughly 340,000 bpd to 10.34 MMbpd and later signaled an additional boost of about...
If true, this is actually a face-saving withdrawal by the Iranians. It lets them pretend to be mean to US & Israel without actually blocking the strait. But I doubt it’s true. https://t.co/xCTeY2zGRE
"Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday said the Strait of Hormuz is open and that the strategic route is only closed to the US and Israeli vessels" Are ships and tankers moving? If not, then where is the problem? Look...
Emerging markets down 14% from February highs. The EM rally was built on dollar weakness. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil rewrote the script. Oil at $100 is devastating for importers like India, South Korea, and Turkey. Even exporters need...
For those of us fortunate enough to be far away and out of the line of fire, the impacts of the war in Iran are economic. Why is the war making the price of so many things more expensive? #canada🇨🇦...
Article and podcast episode: The ‘TACO Trade’: How Markets Can Shape Tariff, War and Financial Stability Policy https://t.co/O3ySkt05wf
Any country except for US and Israel can pass through Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Foreign Minister says: NY Post
Because some folks seem confused: I think it’s really bad that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is halted, and it would be better for pretty well everyone (except Russia) if traffic resumes It will be utterly miserable for billions of...
A barrel of oil lost anywhere is a barrel lost everywhere. It’s a global market and acute scarcity in the Middle East/Asia will inevitably spike prices in North America as markets work to incentivize cargoes to fill the hole. US foreign policy...
IEA just released 400M barrels from emergency reserves. That's one-third of their total stockpile. For context, the largest prior release was during the 1973 oil crisis. This is not normal. $WTI https://t.co/pSOwsqWZJ0
A case study in how tariffs can change the bilateral trade balance but not the global trade balance -- the US is now importing a ton of computers, but essentially zero of those are registering in customs as Chinese made 1/...
🚨Mar 14 Hormuz Update🚨 1️⃣Confirmed attacks: 20 2️⃣Attacks last 24 hrs:0 3️⃣Passage last 24 hrs: 2 4️⃣Average passage: 138 5️⃣Electronic interference: widespread https://t.co/nQ4ZTet45o
Tune in tomorrow when I’ll be discussing today’s energy crisis created by the Iran war with @FareedZakaria on GPS @CNN.
