Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Iran War Puts BoE, ECB Back On The Hot Seat
Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank left policy rates unchanged as the Iran‑Israel conflict fuels higher energy prices and inflation pressures. The BoE’s 8‑1 vote kept rates steady despite UK CPI rising to 3.3% and a revised outlook that inflation will linger and rise in Q4. The ECB also paused, warning that energy costs have jumped nearly 11% YoY, pushing euro‑area inflation a full point above its 2% target. Policymakers say they stand ready to tighten if the war’s energy shock deepens.
India’s Critical Mineral Imports Remain Concentrated, Need Diversification: IEEFA
India’s critical mineral imports remain heavily concentrated, exposing supply‑chain risks as the country pushes its renewable‑energy agenda. A briefing by IEEFA highlights that five key minerals—cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium and nickel—are dominated by a handful of source nations. Chile, Tanzania...
Why Ports Became the Strategic Asset of the Decade
On March 4 2025 CK Hutchison announced the sale of 80% of its global port portfolio to a Western consortium led by BlackRock, MSC and Global Infrastructure Partners for $22.8 billion. The transaction covers 43 ports in 23 countries, including the Panama Canal...
July Oil Futures Hit $108, Pricing Gulf Shortfall
The June Brent future (black) expires today, so a better gauge for oil prices is the July future (pink) that is $108 and up 80% since the start of the year. By any stretch of the imagination, this fully prices...
How Powell Just Complicated Trump’s Fed Plans
Jay Powell announced he will stay on as Federal Reserve chair beyond his term expiration next month, delaying the transition to President Trump’s preferred successor. Trump and his pick, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, have been pushing for aggressive rate...
China’s Economy: By the Numbers
Moody’s confirmed China’s sovereign A1 rating and shifted its outlook from Negative to Stable, joining Fitch and S&P in affirming the country’s creditworthiness. Official data show Q1 2026 GDP growth at 5% year‑on‑year, nominal GDP around $20.85 trillion, and inflation easing...
ECB Keeps Rates on Hold Amid Rising Stagflationary Pressures
The European Central Bank left its policy rate unchanged as stagflationary pressures mount in the eurozone. The ECB highlighted rising headline inflation alongside weaker growth prospects, but offered no clear forward guidance. Recent data show modest Q1 GDP growth, higher...
UK Gilt Yields Drop Sharply on Oil, Yet Remain High
UK Gilts and Oil Pricea The "good news" for the UK today is that it's government bond market’s hypersensitivity (high beta) to oil prices is finally providing relief on the way down: As shown in the Bloomberg table below, the yield on...
Monetary Policy Decisions
On 30 April 2026 the ECB Governing Council kept its three key rates unchanged – the deposit facility at 2.00 %, the main refinancing operation at 2.15 % and the marginal lending facility at 2.40 %. The council said inflation remains near its 2 % target...
Why Bank Kept Interest Rates on Hold Despite Message for UK to Brace Itself for Trumpflation
The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged despite inflation now expected to peak above 3.5% by year‑end, a level a full percentage point higher than pre‑war forecasts. A worst‑case oil‑price scenario of $130 a barrel could drive inflation...
An Economic Model for Securing Hormuz
With roughly one‑quarter of global seaborne oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, recent disruptions have highlighted the fragility of the world’s energy supply chain. The authors contend that a military solution to a potential closure is unlikely to succeed...
Australia’s Foreign Minister Makes Critical Visits to Northeast Asia
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong embarked on a three‑nation tour of Japan, South Korea and China to shore up fuel supplies amid a Middle‑East oil disruption. The trip highlighted Australia’s heavy reliance on Asian refineries for refined fuels while leveraging...
5 Big Energy Stories: EU Madness, UAE Strategy, Donroe Doctrine In Action
European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen used a Brussels address to double‑down on the EU’s renewable‑first strategy, arguing that solar, wind and stationary batteries – largely sourced from China – are the answer to recent oil and LNG supply shocks. The...
Tiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report
The Bank of Canada kept its policy interest rate at 2.25% for the second consecutive meeting, citing persistent inflation risks from higher global energy prices. Inflation rose to 2.4% in March, driven by gasoline and food costs, while core inflation...
Why Mozambique Gas Is Essential to Global Energy Security
The Mozambique LNG project restarted in January, adding 13 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of export capacity and a domestic supply of 400 billion cubic feet per day. Its offshore fields in the Rovuma Basin ship gas directly from the Indian Ocean,...
China’s Rare Earth Squeeze: Trump Wins, EU Loses
Chinese rare‑earth exports plunged nearly half in Q1, dropping to 8,643 tonnes—the lowest level since mid‑2025. The United States saw its imports jump 81% to 2,767 tonnes, a gain attributed to the Trump‑Xi agreement, while the European Union’s imports held...
Hawkish Push Gains Party Backers, Warsh Not Isolated
The hawkish case is finding political backers from inside the president’s own party, meaning that declining to cut might not leave Warsh isolated within his own coalition. Sen. John Kennedy said inflation is “kind of like a tick.” “If you get a...
Webinar: Asia’s Energy Shock - Who Is Most Exposed?
ING is hosting a 30‑minute webinar on May 7 to dissect Asia’s exposure to the recent oil supply shock through the Strait of Hormuz. The session, led by Deepali Bhargava, Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang, will compare strategic oil reserves, import dependence and energy‑mix...
Iran Conflict May Revive Undervalued Commodities Vs. Overheated Stocks
Commodities Too Cold, Stocks Too Hot or Both? The Iran conflict may mark a worthy recovery catalyst for broad commodities from roughly a quarter-century low vs. US equities. Were commodities just too low at the end of 2025, or equity prices...
Reaction as Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75%
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 8‑1 to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 April, matching market expectations. Inflation eased to 3.3% year‑on‑year, but persistent price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty kept the committee from cutting rates. Analysts...
Copper’s Gains Mirror S&P, Yet Lag Behind Trends
Highly Stock-Market Dependent Copper May Be a Guide Copper's increasing dependency for stability on a rising US stock market may underscore elevated risks across assets. My macroeconomic scorecard shows both copper and the S&P 500 up about 5% year to date...
Correspondence: Open Letters Between HM Treasury and Bank of England, April 2026
UK CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026, pushing the rate more than one percentage point above the Bank of England's 2% target. Under the Monetary Policy Committee's remit, the BoE Governor sent an open letter to Chancellor Jeremy Cox...
Balisacan: Peso Slide Driven by Strong Dollar, High Global Oil Prices
Philippine Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the peso’s slide to a record low of 61.75 per dollar was driven mainly by an unusually strong US dollar and rising global oil prices. The stronger dollar pulled capital into U.S. assets, while...
Hungary Breaks the Chains of Stagnation but Risks Being Bound Again
Hungary’s economy expanded 0.8% quarter‑on‑quarter in Q1 2026, matching ING’s most optimistic forecast and lifting year‑on‑year growth to 1.7%. The gain marks the fourth consecutive quarter of expansion, driven primarily by services such as professional, scientific and technical activities, with modest...
Hawkish Fed and 5% Treasury Yield Halt Bitcoin Dip‑Buy
The trifecta finally hit in 18 hours. The Fed delivered what Cointelegraph called the "most hawkish FOMC in years" with four dissents. Brent tagged $125 overnight. And the US 30-year Treasury yield punched through 5% for the first time this...
Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since 1969
*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 189,000 IN APRIL 25 WEEK; EST. 212K This is the lowest reading since September 1969! (Note: this week is subject to revisions) https://t.co/E7TDSpivny
The Daily Feather — Spiritus Animalis
The article traces the etymology of “animal spirits” from the medieval concept of spiritus animalis—a Latin notion of vital breath—to its modern incarnation in behavioral economics and Keynesian theory. It highlights how early physiologists linked the term to bodily vigor,...
Powell Warns Fed Independence Is Under Threat
In today’s Morning Money, I write about Chair Powell’s striking statement that Fed independence is “at risk.” https://t.co/LT9Rd9oAi5
ECB Holds Rates at 2%, Flags Inflation Upside, Growth Downside
#ECB keeps rates steady. Deposit rate at 2% as expected. Sees upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. https://t.co/wmrCEOkbf7
Ray Dalio: The World Order Has Unraveled
In this episode, Ray Dalio explains his "big cycle" framework, outlining five forces—monetary, debt, political/social, geopolitical, and natural/technological—that shape the global economic order. He describes how the debt cycle functions like a circulatory system, where rising debt service relative to...
ECB Warns of Rising Inflation Risks, Growth Slowdown
🇪🇺 ECB: on alert, but not overreacting 👏 "the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified" "longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, although inflation expectations over shorter horizons have moved up significantly"
US Gas Prices Surge to $4.30, Adding $70 Monthly
Oof. The US national gas average just hit $4.30, according to AAA. That's the highest since July 2022. Gas prices have shot up $1.40 since the war in Iran began. That's adding ~$70 extra a month to household costs. #gas #inflation...
The Jones Act Waiver Extension Triggers Explosive Dialogue
The U.S. administration has extended the Jones Act waiver for an additional 90 days starting May 18, aiming to keep petroleum and LNG shipments flowing amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade. The original 60‑day waiver, enacted in mid‑March, was intended...
Yen Surges to Strongest Level Since 2022 Amid Policy‑oil Coordination
Biggest yen jump since December 2022 as Japan "officials" and oil work together. https://t.co/RynfgKJbDD #forex #USDJPY $USO
German Monetarist Legacy Misguided ECB Policy Decisions
He also wrote the papers on how Germany "opted out" of the Great Inflation of the 1970s, which contributed to ECB policy mistakes in 2008, 2011 and [2026?]
Kyodo News Digest: April 30, 2026
Japan’s finance minister signaled that decisive action will be needed as the yen weakened past the ¥160 per dollar mark, its lowest since July 2024, amid heightened Middle East tensions. Japan Airlines reported a record FY2025 revenue of ¥2.01 trillion ($12.5 billion), a...
US Becomes Top Crude Exporter, Overtaking Saudi Arabia
Clearly an anomaly that will end when the Strait of Hormuz re-opens. Still, noteworthy: tanker tracker @Petro_Logistics reckons the US was the world's largest crude oil exporter (note: crude) in April, overtaking leader Saudi Arabia (and ahead of Russia, the...
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 84%, Pushes Official Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 84% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA'S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/vvYHB91ZKo
Understanding the World's Most Unusual Commodity Cycle
In this episode, Chris interviews Grant Isaac, COO of Cameco, to unpack why uranium is a uniquely atypical commodity—its primary consumers secure fuel years in advance, leaving virtually no in‑year demand. Isaac explains Cameco’s vertically integrated model, spanning mining, milling,...
Questioning ECB’s Early Look at Q2 Forecasts
My question to @Lagarde would be: did the Governing Council have a first look at the Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2? If so, how bad does it look? https://t.co/rvxtO93HNC
Yen Rebounds After Fed’s Hawkish Hold Interpretation
The Yen Recovers on Verbal Intervention: The North American market understood yesterday’s Fed statement and the three dissents in favor of a neutral bias as a hawkish hold and rallied the dollar in response. Follow-through selling today has been minimal…...
Côte D'Ivoire Powers Ahead but Faces Human Capital Challenge
Côte d'Ivoire is projected to expand 6.4% in 2026, placing it among Africa’s top ten performers, driven by extractives, agro‑industrial and services growth. Recent ENI gas field discovery and Resolute’s $190 million Doropo Gold investment add long‑term momentum. Strong macro fundamentals—S&P...
Majorities Say War Bonds Offer No Cost Advantage
Latest CfM-NIESR survey: "War bonds" would offer no cost advantage over standard government bonds. Some 76% of the UK panel and 71% of the EU panel disagreed with the proposition that “war bonds” would be a cheaper form of borrowing. https://t.co/USeBxw4ZRx
EU Parliament Approves New GSP, Effective 2027
On 28 April, the European Parliament voted in favour of the new Generalised Scheme of Preference (GSP). This will enter into application on 1 January 2027. GSP is the EU’s unilateral set of preferences for developing and least developed countries. /1 ...
Fed Holds Rates Steady in Powell’s Likely Final Meeting, Markets React
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 8-4 to keep the federal‑funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% in what is expected to be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair. The decision, driven by heightened oil‑price volatility from the Iran war, sparked a...
Pill’s Issing Admiration Signals a Hawkish Turn
When Huw Pill said his central banking hero was Otmar Issing... that's when we knew...
Central Banks Must Stay Steady Amid War‑driven Turmoil
War shock tests central banks’ resolve Linda Yueh on why policymakers may hold their nerve as inflation rises, growth falters and uncertainty deepens https://t.co/VFosKL0tlX
EU Allows Broader State Aids to Protect Industries From Energy Volatility
The European Commission introduced the Middle East Crisis Temporary State Aid Framework (METSAF) to let member states subsidize up to 70% of extra fuel and fertilizer costs for agriculture, fisheries, and transport firms until year‑end. A simplified option caps individual...
Liquidity Dries up Exactly During Market Crises
The 2010 US equity market ‘flash crash’, the 2014 US Treasury turbulence, and the March 2020 pandemic sell-off in US Treasuries all share a disturbing pattern: liquidity vanished precisely when it was most urgently needed. https://t.co/qvntt9NSaH
Emerging Market Loans Default 3.5%, Recovery Beats Benchmarks
Global Emerging Markets Risk Database w over 3 decades of lending data from 29 multilateral development banks, documents average default rate of 3.54% for loans to private entities in emerging markets alongside recovery rates that exceed global benchmarks https://t.co/zT7IRupC9M