Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Oil prices have spiked as conflict in the Persian Gulf blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the sole maritime corridor for Pakistan’s crude imports. Over 85% of Pakistan’s oil comes from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, making the country highly vulnerable to supply disruptions. The surge is driving fuel costs higher for families preparing for Eid, farmers heading into harvest, and a populace already grappling with IMF‑backed debt. Economists warn that prolonged price pressure could push Pakistan’s fragile economy toward default.
Japan and South Korea’s finance ministers voiced serious concern over the sharp depreciation of the yen and won, saying they stand ready to act against excessive foreign‑exchange volatility. The yen slipped to its lowest level in 20 months, hovering near...
Oil prices have surged sharply this month, driven by geopolitical friction and OPEC+ output curbs, but analysts argue the rally is transitory. Global inventories remain ample and demand growth is modest, limiting upward pressure. Historical data shows oil’s price cycle...
China is intensifying a diplomatic campaign in Paraguay, offering all‑expenses‑paid tours of Chinese cities to lawmakers and journalists to showcase its economic might. The outreach aims to persuade Paraguay’s political class to abandon its long‑standing recognition of Taiwan, its last...
EURUSD slipped another 200 pips this week, marking a second consecutive decline as market expectations shift away from further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The move reflects heightened inflation risk and a stronger dollar, prompting analysts to apply Elliott Wave theory...
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a high‑profile conversation titled “Decentering the Dollar,” featuring former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and renowned economist Maurice Obstfeld. The panel examined how the Trump administration’s trade and geopolitical shifts could undermine...
The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) convened a high‑level discussion titled “International Imbalances Again? Still? Forever?” to examine why global trade and current‑account gaps persist. Moderated by Maurice Obstfeld, the panel featured Joseph Gagnon, Hélène Rey, and Alan Taylor,...
Global trade faces heightened tariffs, divergent industrial policies, and a weakened WTO, creating turbulence across supply chains. At the same time, recent free‑trade agreements and renewed multilateral efforts are opening fresh opportunities. The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a...
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a high‑level panel on the future economic architecture of the eurozone. The discussion featured Spain’s finance minister Carlos Cuerpo Caballero, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, and senior economists Olivier Blanchard and Ángel...
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a briefing on a new World Bank report examining the resurgence of industrial policy in the 21st‑century. The study finds developing economies, especially upper‑middle‑income nations, are the heaviest users, allocating an average of...
The United Arab Emirates suspended oil‑loading operations at Fujairah, its primary oil‑trading hub, after a drone strike ignited a fire on Saturday. The blaze was quickly extinguished, opening the possibility for loading to resume. At the time of the attack,...
United Airlines warned that a 15% jump in jet fuel prices, sparked by the Iran‑Israel conflict, could dent its short‑term earnings. The spike helped push United’s stock down about 4.5% and contributed to a broader market sell‑off, with peers such...
The Philippines' Department of Finance secured an $800 million development loan from the World Bank under the Growth and Jobs Development Policy Loan. The financing targets three pillars: stronger fiscal management, enhanced private investment, and expanded labor‑force capabilities. By focusing on...
The latest business‑cycle data show Q4 GDP growth slashed by roughly half compared with the prior estimate, while consumer spending missed consensus by almost 0.5 percentage point on an annualized basis. Revised non‑farm payroll figures indicate a modest downward bias...
Maria Bartiromo's Wall Street aired on Friday, March 13 on Fox Business, delivering a 20‑minute episode focused on market trends and financial commentary. The broadcast was part of the network’s daytime lineup, interspersed with several paid‑programming blocks. Viewers could stream...
The US‑Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly a fifth of global oil flows and pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel. The surge in oil and LNG prices is spilling into gasoline,...
Iran has stated it will allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz - but only for shipments paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. The dollar is THE standard currency of the fossil fuel trade. Iran didn’t just announce...
Chinese tech magnates, including the founders of TCL and Xpeng, announced plans to double their outbound investment, targeting the Middle East and Latin America. The pledge comes as the US‑Israel conflict with Iran escalates and Washington intensifies pressure on Venezuela....
Risk premium rising across equities and credit while intraday correlation between oil and equities around -80%. Oil shocks push the tide out and expose underlying weak links. The peak in oil in June 2022 explained the first low in markets...
The weekly recap highlights a sharp rise in oil to $99 amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, pressuring equities and widening the S&P 500 correction. Gold and silver have pulled back 10% and 33% respectively, but the author views these moves as...
Public sector employment in Canada grew 27% over the past decade. The private sector grew 13%. Today, roughly one in five Canadian workers is in the public sector. Self-employment continues to decline. Here is the uncomfortable math: Step 1: Businesses create goods and...
Hong Kong’s upcoming five‑year plan proposes making the Sino‑Indian partnership a strategic pillar. The proposal calls for extending visa‑free entry for Indian nationals, leveraging the Indian diaspora for scholarships and AI talent, and offering tax incentives to attract Indian firms...
U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min‑seok met in Washington to discuss reviving high‑level talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong‑un. Trump asserted he is the only Western leader capable of breaking the Korean Peninsula deadlock,...
Wall Street closed lower on Friday, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all in the red, putting the week on a negative trajectory. The decline was driven by heightened tensions in the war on Iran, which pushed crude oil above...
Is the gold rush over? The safe haven appeal seems to be fizzling out in gold and silver, the reason is probably something most are overlooking.
What happened in the global economy this week — in charts https://t.co/QMU9rVUUcj via @MollySmithNews https://t.co/qKUd7bcnPi
The UK North Sea faces a critical juncture as high taxes, a ban on new licences and geopolitical volatility are eroding investment and jobs. An effective tax burden of about 75 % under the Energy Profits Levy has driven rigs and...
One-off or sign of easing? Two tankers transporting LPG (think the butane canisters) have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last few hours on the way to India. The crossing happened after gov-to-gov talks between Tehran and New Delhi....
Starmer’s hopes to revive the UK economy are fading as Iran war drags on https://t.co/bp1l1ELBA0 via @alexwickham https://t.co/xDIqYkHO1e
A new AidData report shows China granted or loaned $23.9 billion to finance 168 ports across 90 countries between 2000 and 2025. The investments, covering construction, expansion and equipment, often sit near Chinese‑financed mines and have hosted naval visits at more...
Why oil shocks still hit everything we buy. “We should be very concerned, the longer the conflict lasts, the more prices will rise and ripple through the economy.” From petrol to plastics, another fossil fuel crisis shows how exposed economies remain...
Good Morning from Germany, which investors increasingly see as one of the losers of the current oil shock. Germany’s share of global mkt cap has fallen <1.95%, lowest level since early 2025. There is growing concern that persistently high energy...
Thai rice exporters halted two ships carrying 80,000 tonnes bound for Iraq after a Thai vessel was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, effectively pausing Middle‑East shipments. The disruption comes as Thailand’s rice export outlook has already slipped 11% to...
.@AlexGabuev in FT op-ed: “‘The one thing you never want to happen is you never want Russia and China uniting. I’m going to have to un-unite them’…Fourteen months into his second presidency, Trump’s actions are having precisely the opposite...
Washington Post: Years spent preparing for a global energy crisis have left the country and its economy better positioned than most to endure a long-term hike in the cost of oil and gas. https://t.co/Z93avoq3HM
Indonesia’s February 2026 consumer price index rose to 4.76% year‑on‑year, overshooting the 1.5‑3.5% target range. The surge is driven by Ramadan‑related food demand, a government free‑meal scheme, and sharply higher electricity tariffs. Commodity pressures are amplified by a tenfold cut...
Did we just accelerate de-dollarization, strengthen China’s position as a future security guarantor/mediator in the Gulf and long-term weaken the power of US financial sanctions all in two weeks? https://t.co/A3fRsI7R5i https://t.co/H83a474m3Y
The global map is being redrawn, and India is right at the center of the new oil crisis. With our non-aligned status, we are in a rare position to take the lead. Dive into the full analysis of what happens...
U.S. officials, including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, confirmed that the Trump administration has discussed using oil futures contracts to temper soaring crude prices amid the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict. While the idea was explored, Burgum said no concrete market intervention has...
"The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry" - my own expert comentary on a recent interview with Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc, and the impact on key heavy industries and supply chains they...
MORE US LNG EXPORTS 🇺🇸 🚢 Venture Global will move forward with an $8.6 billion expansion of its third LNG plant in Louisiana Global demand for US LNG is surging as the war in the Middle East cuts off shipments from...
In the debut episode of Gundlach Unlocked, DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and that long‑term rates have stalled despite recent cuts. He also sees the U.S. dollar entering a...
Video of what I'm watching for next week: A Contentious Fed Decision Will Add to Market's Iran Concerns https://t.co/Ikll4zvVyq
The threat to destroy Kharg Island won't convince Iran to back down. But it might convince China to convince Iran to back down. Oil prices may harm the US, but an actual oil shortage or global recession will hurt China.
Rick Rule warns that renewed oil price volatility is inflating mining operating costs and reshaping the sector’s risk profile. He draws parallels to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, noting how energy shocks can trigger profound real‑asset cycles. The interview also...
It's not just oil and gas. What other crucial commodities are under threat from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz? Fertilisers, aluminium, plastics, helium and more. https://t.co/H1tRNgqzv6
My take on the difficultly navigating the splintering within Fed leadership amidst tension of inflation and the labor market.
The geopolitical impact might be negative, but I reckon this brings South Korea even closer to the PRC, probably bullish Chinese tourism to Korea
ISRAEL CONTINUES BOMBING LEBANON. Today, for the first time, the Israelis admitted targeting civilian infrastructure. Since March 2nd, Lebanon’s Health Ministry reports that at least 773 Lebanese have been killed by Israeli airstrikes. https://t.co/RtUAb9jgfW
The Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were ILLEGAL. Now, the US government is slow walking the refunds Americans are due. Once the government illegally taxes you, it’s hard to get a legal refund. https://t.co/crKDhGMBIe
