Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
An opinion piece suggests the U.S. Treasury intervene in the Strait of Hormuz oil bottleneck by purchasing trapped tankers and cargo at a fixed price and reselling them at market rates, with the Navy providing escort. The author likens the scheme to the 2008 TARP program, arguing that the price differential would cover military risks and incentivize rapid transit. If implemented, the plan would turn a geopolitical choke point into a financially engineered logistics operation. The proposal targets both the supply‑demand imbalance and political pressure on Iran.
Romania has closed much of the gap to OECD income levels over the past twenty years, driven by market integration, capital inflows, and broad reforms. Labor productivity now sits close to the OECD average, though wages have begun outpacing productivity...
The escalating Iran‑Israel‑US crisis threatens to choke the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel and adding up to 1.2% to global inflation. At the same time, worldwide electricity demand is surging, driven by AI‑intensive data centers...
India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $27.1 billion in February, down from $34.68 billion in January but still far above the $14.42 billion surplus recorded a year earlier. Imports fell to $63.71 billion as demand for energy, gold and electronics moderated, while exports edged...
Oil prices are hovering near multi‑year highs as the Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck, keeping the energy risk premium elevated. The surge in crude costs has reinforced the U.S. dollar’s dominance, with the Dollar Index perched at the top...
The paper analyzes how foreign direct investment (FDI) influences export performance in African economies from 1996 to 2023, separating landlocked from coastal nations. Using Kao‑Pedroni cointegration and Granger causality with a Pooled Mean Group estimator, it finds a long‑run equilibrium...
Iran has started a new phase of its oil war: Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn't been attacked (and neither the Yemeni...
The European session shows little catalyst, keeping markets rangebound while traders monitor the escalating US‑Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. In North America, the spotlight shifts to Canada’s CPI release, with the Trimmed Mean inflation rate projected at 2.3%...
The U.S. Trade Representative has opened Section 301 investigations into 60 of America’s largest trading partners for failing to block imports made with forced labour. The probe zeroes in on cotton, garment and apparel supply chains, with China’s Xinjiang region a...
The Middle East conflict has reignited a global gas supply shock, pushing European natural‑gas prices up 70% in a week and reviving demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). Venture Global (NYSE:VG), a fast‑growing U.S. LNG producer, leverages modular plant...
India’s Wholesale Price Index rose to 2.13 % in February, the highest level in 11 months, up from 1.81 % in January. The increase was driven primarily by higher prices for manufactured goods, basic metals, food articles and textiles. Primary articles saw...
Senegal’s public debt has surged to roughly 132% of GDP, with annual servicing costs of about $9.1 billion. Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko has dismissed debt restructuring, opting instead to close 19 government agencies to save roughly $98 million over three years. The...
The Asia Africa Agri Alliance, a Section 8 not‑for‑profit institution, has been launched to create structured frameworks for trade, investment and technology exchange between Asia and Africa. Bilateral agri‑trade between the two continents already exceeds $90 billion annually, accounting for over 40 %...
Former EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned that the bloc is losing credibility by failing to hold former President Donald Trump accountable for what he called an illegal war on Iran. He accused European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen of...
Saudi Aramco is giving long‑term oil customers the option to receive April allocations through the Red Sea port of Yanbu as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Deliveries from Yanbu will be limited by pipeline capacity, so buyers will receive...
The Iran war has triggered a sharp surge in European energy prices, with gas costs jumping 50% in just two weeks. UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned that the crisis highlights the security risks of the EU’s heavy reliance on...
Europe’s leaders issued sharp condemnations of the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites, yet offered no tangible response. The operation proceeded without meaningful NATO consultation, exposing a gap between EU rhetoric and strategic capability. The episode underscores the fragility of...
EU foreign and energy ministers convened in Brussels to address mounting risks to energy security as Iranian tensions disrupt shipping routes and threaten supply chains. Norway positioned itself as a dependable gas supplier, offering a potential lifeline for the bloc....
Crude oil prices jumped more than 40% in just 15 days after the U.S.-Israel‑Iran conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the benchmark to about $103 a barrel. Former IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath warned that if oil averages $85...
The Gulf war has triggered a sharp rise in input costs for plastics, resins and polymers, pushing up international freight rates and weakening the rupee. Indian manufacturers across automotive, consumer electronics, appliances, paints and footwear are planning price hikes of...
The chart shows U.S. petroleum intensity of real GDP falling sharply since its 1973 peak, with overall energy intensity also on a long‑term decline. This reduction means that oil price shocks now have a muted effect on output and inflation...
Japan’s equity rally, driven by robust corporate earnings, is now under pressure as the Iran‑Israel conflict lifts crude prices. Brent crude sits around $104 a barrel, roughly 50 % above last year’s average, and a 10 % jump in Brent could shave...
The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty signed by Putin and Iran’s president formalized political ties but contains no mutual‑defense clause. When the United States and Israel struck Iran in early 2024, Russia issued condemnations yet provided only limited intelligence and drone‑tactic...
The International Energy Agency announced that member countries will release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to calm markets disrupted by the West Asia conflict. Brent crude rose to $103.95 a barrel while WTI slipped to $98.62, reflecting mixed reactions. The...
♦️Here’s a striking example of how a closure of the Strait of Hormuz can reshape global oil flows—and how Saudi Arabia can rapidly adapt by diverting supplies from its eastern fields to western Red Sea terminals. ♦️A VLCC oil tanker was...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis said New Zealand is considering targeted, temporary assistance for households hit by soaring fuel prices, but ruled out broad fuel tax cuts, universal cost‑of‑living payments, or public‑transport subsidies. Any aid must avoid adding inflationary pressure, fit the...
U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Iran is deploying artificial intelligence as a disinformation weapon, citing fabricated images of kamikaze boats, a false attack on the USS Abraham Lincoln, and a non‑existent rally of 250,000 supporters for Iran’s new Supreme Leader....
The equity risk premium (ERP) is an essential ingredient in hurdle rates in corporate finance, discount rates in valuation and expected returns in financial planning. In 2009, I pulled together everything I know about the ERP, in a paper that...
Uncertainty returned to commodity markets on Sunday night and soybeans aren't happy with the latest US-China news. Not only may Trump delay his meeting w/ Xi, but the mention of China eyeing "non-soybean row crops" dampens hopes it will buy an...
Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, said Tokyo is not planning to dispatch naval vessels to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, despite a public request from U.S. President Donald Trump. The decision remains pending as Japan evaluates what...
China’s 30‑year government bond yields climbed to 2.4%, the highest closing level since September 2024, as oil prices surged amid the Iran‑Israel conflict. The 10‑year benchmark also edged higher to 1.83%, reflecting broader inflation concerns. Futures on the 30‑year bond fell...
Chinese economic releases for January‑February showed stronger‑than‑expected industrial production (6.3% YoY) and retail sales (2.8% YoY), while house prices slipped further and unemployment edged up to 5.3%. The data, tempered by Chinese New Year effects, arrived amid heightened geopolitical tension...
*DUBAI TEMPORARILY SUSPENDS FLIGHTS AT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT For years, Dubai, the UAE and Qatar have presented themselves as bulletproof tax havens and sanctuaries for the global elite. Just four years ago, Qatar hosted the 2022 World Cup, signaling the region's arrival...
China’s January‑February 2026 data showed a stronger‑than‑expected rebound across key indicators. Industrial production jumped 6.3% year‑on‑year, the fastest since September, while retail sales rose 2.8% and fixed‑asset investment expanded 1.8% after a year‑long decline. Infrastructure spending surged 11.4% and manufacturing...
Ukraine struck two Russian ro‑ro rail ferries, the Slavyanin and Avangard, disabling both vessels in the Kerch Strait. The attacks leave Russia without any operational rail ferries on the Black Sea, forcing reliance on the Kerch Bridge for bulk rail...
China, semis, data centers, EVs I think all of these go when the US & China meet next week
The EU has granted a rare tariff exemption to the CUPRA Tavascan, an electric SUV built in China for the European brand. The waiver removes the combined 10 % standard duty and 20.7 % China‑origin surcharge, provided the model meets a minimum...
Chinese primary‑market property transactions have steadied after the Lunar New Year, but the broader year looks weak. The secondary housing market remains sluggish, with daily transaction volumes lagging across major cities. New‑energy vehicle (EV) sales slipped in February, falling below...
US-Chile critical minerals talks open to secure copper, lithium, and rare earth supply chains. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-chile-critical-minerals-talks-kick.html
Context is that China needs oil from Iran. The cacth22 is: 1. China helps: USA wants to get a fast offramp and avoid boots on the ground - will happen if China helps (then Russia is in a Catch22). China is unlikely...
U.S. forces struck Iran’s Kharg Island, a hub handling about 90% of Tehran’s oil exports, prompting a sharp rally in crude markets. Brent crude jumped 1.8% to $104.98 per barrel, pushing oil above $100 for the first time since the...
Reuters, citing sources: “The two sides discussed the establishment of new formal mechanisms to help manage trade and investment between the world’s two largest economies that may be considered by Trump and Xi in Beijing, the sources said.” https://t.co/8xXdogaiRy
UK inflation risk looks more 2011 than 2022 for the BOE https://t.co/YUsUko90Zt via @PhilAldrick https://t.co/pQSXwc2lvq
This paper says India's GDP is overstated by 22%. It also says that Europe's GDP and China's GDP are both overstated by 35%.
U.S. government acknowledges oil prices will likely continue to rise until Strait of Hormuz is re.-opened: https://t.co/3Db7xAQBDO
Goldman on negative growth impact on Europe and UK from the energy shock > https://t.co/8QpnqMeUnL
China’s Economy Off to Steady Start in 2026 Amid Lowered Expectations—Better-than-expected performance in first two months of year opens space for Beijing to pursue goal of shifting toward consumption-led growth @ByXiaoXiao @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/KtqJ6NLc1z https://t.co/KtqJ6NLc1z
Iran War Energy Crisis: How Long Will India Stay Exposed to Global Insta... https://t.co/JcyDp1BD9k via @YouTube
Central banks worldwide hold rates steady this week as they watch oil prices and Middle East tensions. The Fed's Powell leads his second-to-last FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/d9xKHu64X9
$USDJPY near 160, going to be tough for an intervention to be effective with the winds pushing yields up thanks to oil (as goes the case for any major energy importer at the moment)
