Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
In this episode, host Tim Miller and editor‑at‑large Bill Kristol discuss the escalating conflict in Iran and its broader geopolitical fallout. Kristol argues that the war has fractured U.S. alliances, especially with Europe, as Trump’s unilateral actions left allies feeling sidelined and forced to confront a war without a clear U.S. plan. The conversation also examines the ripple effects on Gulf states, Asian partners, and the strategic dilemma facing Trump between escalating the conflict or pulling back, each option carrying significant risks. Kristol’s perspective draws on recent analysis by Bob Kagan, emphasizing how the war undermines America’s credibility as both a protector and a deterrent.
For those bullish wars, don't forget: WARS ARE INFLATIONARY which can accelerate economic deterioration that is already in motion. Now pit INFLATION against this backdrop: liquidity versus solvency.👇 Liquidity crisis can quickly turn to solvency crisis. Fed can step in during liquidity episodes, Fed...
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff reactivated a direct texting channel with Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi amid the two‑week war. The exchange, focused on ending hostilities, marks the first known direct contact between the parties since the conflict began. Iran’s foreign...
Walmart has finalized its 2026‑27 trans‑Pacific shipping contracts with six major carriers, prompting container lines to resume stalled negotiations. The war in the Middle East had paused talks, but carriers now urge importers to lock in space allocations before the...
No New Jobs have been created since September 2024 but new business applications have been surging
Polymarket now prices a 98% chance that Fed governor Stephen Miran will dissent from the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, up from 89.1% after the Iran war began. The odds surge highlights heightened market focus on any deviation from the committee’s...
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 Latest OPEC+ production data heading into the Iran War, as well as estimates of how much production has already been shut in across the Gulf By my tally we're currently sitting at ~8.5 MMbpd confirmed shut it, with...
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
Global consumer‑price inflation peaked in 2022‑23, ranging from 3 % in Switzerland to 85 % in Turkey. The surge was traced to lingering supply‑chain bottlenecks after pandemic restrictions lifted, which outpaced the gradual return of supply. Since then most economies have entered...
Taking Kharg Island (variety of ways) "kind of checkmate" - General (ret) Jack Keane, Chairman @TheStudyofWar , on @FoxNews "The Straits of Hormuz eventually will be a problem that will be solved, but not immediately. Kharg Island; Kharg Island,...
The long-term history of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the benchmark measure of global dry bulk freight rates. It tracks what it costs to ship commodities like: * Iron ore * Coal * Grain * Bauxite * Steel inputs Because these commodities sit at the very beginning...
The article argues that any credible reconstruction of Gaza must first secure financial agency for Palestinians, who currently rely on Israeli banks and indemnity waivers to access cash and digital payments. Recent moves by Israel’s finance ministry threaten to cancel...
Kevin Hassett told CBS’s Face the Nation that the US economy will not be harmed by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, citing abundant domestic oil production and a steep decline in futures‑based oil prices. He argued the temporary 20% disruption to global...
A $10 jump in oil prices, driven by geopolitical risk, has jolted global equities but left U.S. stocks surprisingly resilient. The United States, now a net oil exporter with most imports from Canada and Mexico, experiences a lagged impact on...
India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade announced that, effective immediately, imports of silver jewellery studded with cheap diamonds are restricted until June 30, 2026. The move targets a surge in such items from ASEAN nations that have been entering India...
We've had six cuts to interest rates in a row since the general election, and the markets expect inflation to be back on track this year, but the cost of living at home and the unrest abroad means that it...
China is reinforcing energy self‑sufficiency as the Iran‑Ukraine war disrupts oil supplies. Xi Jinping’s 2021 oilfield visit underscored a Maoist‑style “rice bowl” doctrine, urging domestic production and strategic reserves. Beijing has accelerated renewable investments, expanded state‑owned oil drilling, and built...
Take a look at these two charts together. One is income concentration (Top 10% share of consumption v Bottom 80%), the other is equity market concentration (S&P 500 Growth vs Value weight). In the last 15 years, surplus flowed to capital,...
The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield is projected to climb into a 4.25‑4.5% band before easing back toward 4%, driven by higher nominal and real yields after the war’s shock. Even as the conflict winds down, inflation expectations remain structurally elevated,...
The United States and Ecuador have finalized a reciprocal trade agreement that extends most‑favored‑nation (MFN) tariffs to a range of Ecuadorian products such as flowers, coffee, fruits and chemicals, while granting Ecuador preferential treatment for future US tariff actions. In...
In a March 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, EXIM Bank chairman John Jovanovic outlined how the Trump administration’s economic strategy hinges on resilient, "free, fair, and functioning" supply chains. He highlighted the bank’s role in financing U.S. exporters amid heightened geopolitical...
UK mortgage rates edged higher on Monday, with the average two‑year fixed rate climbing to 5.20% and the five‑year rate to 5.25%, reflecting market expectations that the Bank of England will keep policy tight. At the same time, pump prices...
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep its policy rate at 0% as inflation remains near‑zero, hovering between 0.1% and 0.3% year‑on‑year. Recent forecasts show a modest rise to 0.2% in 2026 and 0.8% by mid‑2028, supporting a...
Ending the war does not mean ending the crisis. We have countries that literally shut down production because their storage is full. To bring back that oil to a pre-crisis level takes time. For [liquified natural gas] in particular, it takes a very...
A new US-China “Board of Trade”? The world has never before seen an attempt to manage trade at this scale. If the US government wants to do this seriously, it really has to do its homework. by @AnaSwanson https://t.co/ooAO5hs8Jv
ING’s research team released its latest foreign‑exchange forecast table on 16 March 2026, drawing on Refinitiv data and internal modeling. The outlook covers major pairs such as USD/EUR, GBP/USD, and emerging‑market currencies, highlighting expected rate movements through the year. Analysts attribute the...
"China is tightening its curbs on fertilizer exports as the war in Iran disrupts trade of key crop nutrients, driving up prices globally." https://t.co/X35yEEwYZH
#Cuba is moving to allow more investment from Cubans living abroad as part of a larger effort to bolster the state-dominated economy amid increased pressure from the US. https://t.co/uhnTdxoWpo
The war in Iran has crippled the Strait of Hormuz, halting non‑Iranian sea traffic and forcing airlines to reroute over the Middle East. Air freight rates on affected corridors have surged more than 70%, while shipping companies avoid the risk...
Bessent now finds himself in the position of the Bank of England in 1992 when Soros, Druckenmiller, & Bessent "broke the BOE": Trying to prevent the USD from collapsing v. oil with a finite amount of oil reserves as markets &...
Well that’s one way to Make Venezuela’s Oil Great Again…by shutting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices into the $90s and $100s https://t.co/0dXdhaPaQ6
My take on the effect of the US-Israel war on India: "It will hit India particularly hard if the price of oil hits $120 / barrel or $200 / barrel because India is the third largest oil importer in the world."...
I believe this is the first sucessull Iranian attack against an **oil / gas field** since the war started (previous strikes against oil facilities involved refineries, terminals, and storage tanks). (Althought the tweet calls it an oil field, it likely...
On the eve of St. Paddy's day I raise a glass to my Irish friends -- offer a toast their international tax wizardry. Every international tax initiative, and every US tax reform, somehow ends up increasing the Irish corporate tax...
It is clear that Iran is in control of one of the world's greatest choke points. Apparently, the US military planners failed to see what is CLEAR AS A NOSE ON YOUR FACE. https://t.co/mGgjrf1ZGW
EU savings union can be ready this year, Ireland’s Harris says https://t.co/ncveXVZHvW via @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/9gb3pbnbBC
This is a rare Russian LNG shipment going through the Red Sea to Southeast Asia. Why is it rare? Because neither the LNG nor the carrier is sanctioned, and most likely it is not going to China. All previous...
The US-Iran conflict pushed oil past $100 a barrel. This is going to keep inflation elevated. Elevated inflation stops the Fed from cutting, which isn’t good for risk assets. I don’t see a super cycle this year only lower lows as stated many...
I’ll be presenting this slide during a speech tomorrow to the Texas Agricultural Cooperative Council. Three of the world’s poorest countries — combined population: 1.8B people — will be hammered by the shutdown of LNG shipments through the Strait of...
99% probability the Fed holds rates steady at the next FOMC meeting in 2 days https://t.co/McZZLqnIC5
Last year, the US economy grew at its third-slowest rate in the last 14 years. https://t.co/RDFeuSRfcT
Pres. Trump and PM Netanyahu's war is TAXING Americans at the pump and at the grocery store. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/l1tQlYx8aS
President Trump will get his $50 oil price wish before the elections— but only after triggering a global recession. Or: End the war this week and keep flooding the market with SPR releases in the coming months.
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn export inspections land near the top of trade expectations and soybeans surpass them. 57% of the week's bean cargoes were destined for China. https://t.co/ttZsn3agHO
The $DXY Dollar Index has put in for a bearish 'inside day' from a technical analysis perspective. Happens to align to the $VIX retreat - though the 10-day correlation is waning. Is the Dollar more aligned as a safe haven,...
Tariffs and elections are historically a toxic mix for US presidents. Are we about to see history repeat itself in this year's midterms? My latest for @BW & @business: https://t.co/46jYYRwocA
Did Iran just negotiate safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz? The Aframax tanker KARACHI just became the first non-Iranian cargo ship to transit the strait with AIS on since attacks on shipping escalated—raising questions about whether certain vessels are...
U.S. Allows Iranian Tankers to Transit Hormuz as Oil Prices Surge and Select Ships Begin Crossing Strait https://t.co/7Cu9sdFEOi
Strait of Hormuz. Global supply chain risk. Across product and market sectors. Oil. Fertilizer. Sulfur. Aluminum. Natural gas. From logistics to agriculture. And more. Chaos. https://t.co/bI5EP6euSD
I get why people fear that the input cost spike that we have seen over the past month will end the business cycle, but it is probably more of a 2027 story.. There is a whole "time-line" that we need...
