Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Israel -Gaza Economy Dangles Dire Dichotomy
Six months after the Israel‑Gaza cease‑fire, Israel’s Finance Ministry estimates the two‑year conflict cost $55 billion—about 7% of its GDP—while a joint World Bank‑UN‑EU assessment puts Gaza’s reconstruction needs at $75 billion. The Tel Aviv exchange has rallied 20% year‑to‑date, whereas the Palestine index, still nascent, rose 5% through April. In MSCI terms, Israel’s component gained 2% in Q1 while Palestine’s fell 3%, reflecting their bank‑heavy compositions. Israel’s market now totals $220 billion with a 14× P/E, dwarfing Palestine’s $1.5 billion market where a shattered telecom firm still commands 40% weight.
Trump Says He Will Hike Tariffs on EU Cars to 25%
President Donald Trump announced a hike in tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the European Union, raising the rate to 25% effective next week. The move reverses the 15% ceiling established in the 2023 US‑EU trade agreement negotiated at...
Oil Falls on Hopes for US-Iran Negotiations, Hormuz Progress
Oil prices slipped as West Texas Intermediate dropped up to 5.5% before stabilizing near $102 per barrel, reflecting thin trading ahead of Labor Day holidays. Ongoing US‑Iran negotiations remain deadlocked, with both sides maintaining a de‑facto blockade of the Strait...
Descartes Report Describes Tumultuous Year at U.S. Ports
The 2026 Descartes Datamyne Port Report shows U.S. maritime imports held steady in 2025, with total containerized volume flat at roughly 28.09 million TEUs, a marginal 0.03% decline from the prior year. Trade volatility, driven by fluctuating U.S.-China tariffs that peaked...
KBRA Releases Research – The Forward Look—European and UK Credit Views: Q2 2026
KBRA’s Q2 2026 European and UK Credit Views report, authored by macro strategist Gordon Kerr, examines how the Iran‑Hormuz conflict and rising commodity prices are reshaping Europe’s credit outlook. The analysis highlights heightened stagflation risks, delayed growth recovery, and tighter...
Global Economic Trends
Global economic growth has steadied since the pandemic’s 2020 collapse, but it remains below the levels recorded before COVID‑19. The recovery, after an early surge, now appears to have plateaued, reflecting uneven performance across regions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)...
The Outbreak of Warsh
The episode examines the revival of Gulf public bond issuance after a two‑month war‑induced pause, highlighted by Emirates NBD’s $750 million AT1 bond that priced at 6.25% and attracted a $2 billion order book with roughly 24% international demand. Analysts discuss why...
Shift in the Middle East Has Implications for Countries Like Australia
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC, marking a dramatic break with its Gulf neighbours and underscoring a new strategic direction. UAE diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash warned that Gulf policies toward Iran have failed and called for a...
DRC Copper Exports to US Set to Surge Amid Warnings of Corruption Risk
The Democratic Republic of the Congo plans to export 500,000 metric tons of copper to the United States, a five‑fold increase from its January commitment. The surge aligns with Washington’s push to diversify away from Chinese‑sourced copper, even as the...
Trump Says He Will Raise Tariff on EU Vehicles to 25%
Former President Donald Trump announced he would raise the tariff on European‑made vehicles to 25% if he returns to the White House. The proposal would double the current 10% duty applied to cars from the EU, targeting major manufacturers such...
Why UK Whisky Tariffs Are Being Lifted After A Royal Visit
In April 2025 the United States slapped a 10 percent tariff on British goods, including Scotch whisky, causing a 15 percent export decline and a loss of roughly 12 million bottles. The duty cost the U.K. whisky sector about £4 million ($5.4 million) weekly and hurt...
Op-Ed: The Jones Act Waiver, A Gift to China and NATO’s Iran Onlookers
The Biden administration extended a Jones Act waiver for 90 days, allowing foreign‑flagged vessels to operate in domestic U.S. trades. MARAD data shows most of the fifteen voyages under the waiver were carried out by European allies and four ships...
Journal of Commerce Top 100 US Importers and Exporters in 2025
The 2026 Journal of Commerce Top 100 US Importers and Exporters list shows combined import volumes slipping 1.1% and export volumes falling 4.5% year‑over‑year. Despite this decline among the largest shippers, total US container imports rose 0.7% to a record 28.16 million TEUs,...
GDP, Personal Income and Other Business Cycle Indicators as of May Day
U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2% annual rate in the Q1 2026 advance estimate, outpacing many forecasts. Real personal income, excluding government transfers, held steady, indicating limited wage‑driven demand. Meanwhile, alternative gauges such as CPI‑deflated retail sales and freight‑service...
Risk-On Mood Persists, but Watch for Volatility
Global equities have resumed their upward trajectory after the United States and Iran agreed to a cease‑fire, sustaining a risk‑on market mood. The strategy now calls for underweighting oil, which surged during the conflict, and adding gold as inflation concerns...
Iran’s Currency Crisis Deepens as War Batters Economy
Iran’s rial slumped to a record 1.81 million per U.S. dollar before a brief rebound, reflecting a 15% drop in days amid intensified war, air strikes and a U.S. naval blockade. The conflict has crippled oil exports, driving annual inflation to...
Iran's Latest Proposal Suggests Sanctions Relief in Exchange for Discussing Nuclear File
Iran has floated a new proposal that links nuclear negotiations with the prospect of sanctions relief, signaling a tentative willingness to re‑engage with the United States. Washington, however, remains skeptical, with President Trump publicly expressing dissatisfaction and emphasizing gaps over...
White House Says Iran Hostilities ‘Terminated’ as War Powers Deadline Arrives
The White House announced that hostilities with Iran are considered terminated as the May 1 deadline under the 1973 War Powers Resolution approached. The Trump administration argues the cease‑fire claim exempts it from the legal requirement to seek congressional authorization. Democrats...
'No Way to Treat Close Partners': Trump Hikes Tariffs on EU Cars to 25%
President Donald Trump announced that the United States will raise tariffs on European Union cars and trucks from the current 15 % to 25 % starting next week, citing alleged non‑compliance with the 2025 US‑EU trade deal. The move is intended to...
Venezuela Announces Pension, Minimum Income Raises As Worker Protests Intensify
Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez announced a raise of the monthly minimum income to $240 and a pension increase to $70, a 40% boost for retirees. The measures come as workers protest amid 649% annual inflation and a surge in bonus...
Exxon Mobil CEO Expects Higher Oil Prices Due to Iran War: ‘The Market Hasn’t Seen the Full Impact’
Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods warned that current oil prices do not reflect the full impact of the Iran‑triggered supply shock, noting that strategic reserves and in‑transit tankers have temporarily cushioned the market. He said oil flows from the Persian...
Iran War Stalemate Fuels Oil Price Gamble
The bottom line is the Iran War is "stuck." No War (shooting) No Peace No Shipping No Crude Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, and/or Helium And it will stay "stuck" until circumstances change. The most likely change ... * The US/Israel restart kinetic attacks with the goal...
Venezuela Tops 2025 Misery Index After Decade‑long Collapse
Since 2008, Venezuela’s economy has COLLAPSED. No wonder Venezuela ranks as THE WORLD’S MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY in Hanke's 2025 Annual Misery Index. https://t.co/AHMhvhy5Ac
The IEA’s Fatih Birol on ‘the Greatest Energy Security Threat in History’
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol told an Atlantic Council event that the ongoing war in Iran represents the greatest energy security threat in history. He warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could force oil prices to...
Higher Oil Prices Will Cripple Demand, Stalling Rises
"no, oil prices won't rise because demand will be destroyed due to rising prices.." https://t.co/pBEj3OkRN5
Tariff Flip-Flops Reveal Trump’s Policy Inconsistency
Yesterday, Trump lifted UK whiskey tariffs that were supposedly (by law) about a "balance of payments" crisis. Today, he's imposing EU automotive tariffs that were supposedly (by law) about "national security". It's all so manifestly ridiculous.
The Guardian View on Britain’s Fragile Systems: When Global Shocks Hit Your Shopping Bill | Editorial
The Bank of England warned that UK food inflation could reach 7% by year‑end, exposing how geopolitical shocks in the Gulf can cascade through energy, fertilizer and supermarket prices. The editorial argues Britain’s tightly‑linked finance, energy, data and food sectors...
Jackson Hole Speech Marks Most Hawkish Remarks Yet
His speech at Jackson Hole that year is the most hawkish speech in the entire corpus IIRC
Blockade Needed to Cut Off Dangerous Oil Exporters
I first proposed a blockade on March 16, one month before it got announced. Whatever you think of Trump, he's right on this. Only way to counter a dangerous oil exporter is to cut off its lifeblood. That's what 4...
Trump Is Breaking the Turnberry Deal over Cars. Semiconductors Are Next in Line.
President Trump announced a 25% tariff on EU cars and trucks, up from the 10% rate applied after a February Supreme Court ruling, accusing the bloc of vague non‑compliance with the Turnbird Agreement. The 2025 agreement capped U.S. tariffs on...
US Blockade Pressures Iran, Mirroring Hormuz Tactics
The US blockade aims to do two things: (i) give Iran a taste of its own medicine for blockading the Strait of Hormuz; (ii) send Iran’s economy into a tailspin and thereby bring the regime to the negotiating table in...
China Still Dominates US Soybean Exports Despite Low Volumes
🇺🇸🇨🇳Even though China.... ✔️Didn't start buying until late October ✔️Has secured the smallest U.S. tonnage in 19 years .... it's still by FAR the leading destination for U.S. soybean exports so far in 2025/26, a reminder of how hard China is to replace...
Trump Says 'Iran Wants to Make a Deal, but I'm Not Satisfied with It'
President Donald Trump said he is not satisfied with Iran's new offer to end the two‑month war involving the United States and Israel. He argued the proposal contains demands he cannot accept and highlighted Iran's depleted military capacity. Pakistani officials,...
Fedlock's Hawkishness Score Climbs Sharply with Recent Statements
As discussed below, Fedlock's aggregate hawkishness score continues to rise noticeably, with the latest communication from Kashkari, Powell, and Hammack all registering high relative to their recent comms https://t.co/b7k8lndodx
Unemployment Risks May Prompt Fed Rate Hike
BNP PARIBAS: “.. downside risks to the unemployment rate may be underappreciated. This brings with it a growing tail risk that the Fed could consider hiking rates later this year.” https://t.co/ax6DWAd2eV
JPMorgan: 'Exponential' Oil Price Escalation Coming In May; Ignore The Friday Fudge
JPMorgan warned that OECD commercial oil inventories will reach operational minimums between May 9 and May 30, triggering an exponential rise in crude prices. The note cites a cumulative loss of roughly 1 billion barrels of production and an additional 400 million barrels lost...
Rising Asian Conflict Threatens Overseas Tech Infrastructure Supply
I can’t help to wonder how much of this infra is created overseas and the potential risk of conflict rises in Asia. Chips. Servers. PCB. PCA. Power. Etc.
Costs Surge, Firms Pass some, Growth Remains Modest
Costs are rising fast again. Companies are trying to pass it through, but not fully. Activity is expanding modestly.
Asian Markets Edge Higher as Oil Holds Near $111; Traders Brace for Fed and Earnings
Asian stock indexes nudged higher while Brent crude steadied above $111 as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Credit Agricole announced a €800 million ($860 million) share buy‑back, and Darling Ingredients reported a 2.3% rise in its stock after a strong...
Miran’s Exit Leaves Fed with No Remaining Doves
Interesting chart, although there is some hard-to-quantify nuance regarding how dovish/hawkish each individual member truly is.
Historic LEI/CEI Low Signals Recession, Cyclicals Set to Crash
The ratio of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) showing the steepest decline in the entire history of the metric and now at a level typically seen during or just before recessions. Small/mid + cyclicals rip hard once...
Powell Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Fuels Uncertainty, Markets React Lightly
In his last press conference as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell left the benchmark rate unchanged and warned that the Iran war adds to economic uncertainty. Investors took the news in stride, with the S&P 500 edging up 0.04% and bond...
Short‑term Oil Loss From Hormuz Can Be Offset
In the short-term and for a limited time, the losses of oil from the Straits of Hormuz can be made up. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/xfKk6k7sQC
China's Auto Subsidies Outpace US Tariffs on EU Cars
Neither the wolf nor the shepherd are friends to the sheep. PRC subsidies and vertical integrated auto companies are conquering the world (outside the US and Canada). US just hiked tariffs on EU light vehicles to 25%, up from...
Yara Warns Iran War Could Spark Fertilizer Price Surge and Food Shortages in Africa
Yara International’s CEO Svein Tore Holsether warned that the Iran war has driven urea prices up 60‑70% and could trigger a global fertilizer auction, leaving Africa’s most vulnerable farmers unable to afford inputs. The warning comes as supply chains scramble...
Presidential Belligerence Drags Markets Lower, Pricing Risk
"Every time the president leans into belligerence... the stock market falls." Markets can’t vote, but they can mark down the price of risk. https://t.co/BapJYuCaQL
U.S. to Buy Chinese Critical Minerals in First $12B Stockpile, Bloomberg Reports
The U.S. Export‑Import Bank announced that its $12 billion Project Vault will initially source critical minerals from China, marking a departure from a domestic‑first approach. Executives said the plan will later prioritize U.S. production, then allied nations, before turning to other...
S&P 500 Sets New Record as Optimism Over Iran Conflict Fuels Large‑Cap Rally
The S&P 500 climbed to a new all‑time high, up 0.12%, as investors bet on a swift resolution to the Iran conflict. Billionaire Howard Marks warned that the rally may not be a bargain, while Bill Ackman defended the premium...
Markets Rebound in Days, Not Months After Shocks
The speed of this market recovery is striking. A nearly 10% drop during the Iran conflict was erased in just 11 trading days, one of the fastest rebounds ever. It shows how markets behave now. Shock, then immediate repositioning. https://t.co/vGeqv04VWN @a16z
Venezuela Oil Exports Hit 7-Year High as U.S., India, Europe Ramp Up Buying
Venezuela’s oil exports jumped 14% in April to 1.23 million barrels per day, the strongest monthly level since late 2018. The surge was driven by higher shipments to the United States, India and Europe after U.S. sanctions were eased and a...