Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Indian textile exports fell 2.1% YoY to $18.36 bn in April ’25‑February ’26, while apparel exports edged up 0.5% to $14.53 bn. Combined, the sector’s total exports slipped 1% to $32.89 bn versus the previous year. February 2026 showed a sharper apparel decline of 8.6% and a 4.26% drop in cumulative textile‑apparel shipments. The data, from CITI quick estimates, highlights a modest overall contraction amid mixed segment performance.
India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal announced that the country will postpone signing the bilateral trade agreement with the United States until Washington finalizes a revised tariff framework. The delay follows a U.S. Supreme Court decision that invalidated several Trump-era tariff...
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
China has pledged a non‑repayable $61 million grant to build nine border posts along Tajikistan’s Afghan frontier, covering 17,109 sq m of observation posts and headquarters. The project follows a series of lethal attacks on Chinese workers in late 2025, which heightened Beijing’s security...
In the two oil shocks of the 70's the Fed tightened due to the broad inflationary impact of leaving the gold standard and Bretton woods. Oil was a symptom not a cause of inflation In 90 the Fed paused cuts...
Iran’s renewed aggression in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp rebound in Brent crude, pushing prices above $103 a barrel, and sent U.S. diesel to a multi‑year high of $5 per gallon. Tehran’s threats to halt oil shipments through...
“Trump has asked to postpone the scheduled summit with China’s President Xi. The delay is unlikely to be too economically significant. Trade talks are continuing, and China’s export numbers remain robust. A trade deal would reduce the tariff burden on...
India’s parliamentary panel urged the Department of Economic Affairs to develop a strategic energy mitigation framework to shield the economy from oil price volatility. The report highlighted the need for a coordinated national strategy on critical minerals, calling for diversified...
The Daily Feather’s new post spotlights the oddball nicknames of U.S. colleges, zeroing in on Wichita State University’s “Shockers.” It traces the Shockers moniker to early 20th‑century wheat‑harvesting students who earned a reputation for “shocking” the grain. The article pairs...
Iran and its proxies have intensified drone and missile strikes on UAE energy infrastructure, targeting both downstream storage hubs and upstream production sites. A fire at Fujairah port halted oil loading and forced berths to close, while a drone hit...
Kuwait re‑entered the international sovereign market in September 2024, issuing an $11.25 billion eurobond – its first external debt sale since 2017. The issuance was enabled by a new debt law approved in March 2025 that authorises up to KD30 billion (≈$97 billion)...
I think the most dangerous thing that I see in markets currently is this assumption that, as soon as the war ends, commodity production will just switch back on again. It won’t. It can’t. Commodity production is not like a manufacturing...
The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has opened Section 301 investigations into forced‑labour practices in roughly 60 economies, including China, the EU, India, Japan and others. The probes will assess whether these countries’ measures are unreasonable, discriminatory, or burden U.S. commerce. USTR...
South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy imposed mandatory caps on refined fuel exports, limiting shipments to 100 % of the monthly 2025 volumes and introducing wholesale price ceilings for gasoline, diesel and kerosene. The measures, effective 13 March, aim to...
Researchers using Finnish administrative data examined how the 2022 European energy crisis affected household behavior. An eightfold jump in electricity prices revealed stark income‑based heterogeneity: high‑income families sharply reduced usage, while low‑income households cut consumption little and instead faced higher...
AI is quickly becoming geopolitical infrastructure. An Nvidia-backed startup plans to spend billions on a data center in South Korea, as the U.S. increasingly uses AI chips and models to strengthen alliances and counter China. The AI race is no longer just...
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets suspect this telegraphs what's on the cards for other single-mandate central banks, such as the Bank of England and the ECB. While a hike isn't...
Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković used the 33rd Kopaonik Business Forum to underline Serbia’s industrial re‑industrialisation agenda while highlighting the National Bank’s macro‑economic results. She reported 2025 inflation at 2.7%, a stable dinar, record‑high foreign‑exchange and gold reserves, and a €48 bn export...
The RBA hiked its benchmark rate to 4.1%. That is the first major central bank this week of a long list. If you want to pit it against the most prominent carry counterpart and contrast against rate of change, it...
BRUSSELS, March 17 (Reuters) - European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas pushed back on Tuesday against a call by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever to normalise relations with Moscow and regain access to cheap Russian energy.
Thailand’s commerce ministry is negotiating a barter arrangement with Iran and other Middle‑East nations, offering processed food and raw materials in exchange for safe passage of Thai vessels carrying plastic pellets and fertiliser. Minister Suphajee Suthumpun warned that Thailand’s domestic...
Germany just refused to join the Hormuz escort coalition. "We lack the mandate." $100+ oil isn't a blip. It's a policy choice the West keeps making by not making one. $WTI https://t.co/hftmXwpdXG
Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay at Phenomenal World posted this nice map of the global LNG market. It's featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/hQaQMt4GjH
Alberto Naudón highlighted that Chile’s 2025 economy outperformed expectations, with non‑mining growth near 3% and gross fixed capital formation rising about 7%. Inflation accelerated early in the year but fell faster than projected, positioning headline inflation around 3.5% and core...
China's fuel export ban last week is already rippling through the region. Bangladesh, which relies on Chinese diesel and jet fuel, has come out and asked Beijing to honour its contracts. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China...
Trump Shifts U.S.-China Strategy on Trade to Dealmaking—Plus, President Trump has asked Beijing to delay his summit with Xi and some have signaled renewed openness to bilateral investment @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/XagDzu9g7G https://t.co/XagDzu9g7G
China imports over 10% of its oil from Iran, most of it routed through the Strait of Hormuz, and the ongoing Iran‑U.S. conflict threatens to choke that corridor. While oil accounts for less than one‑fifth of China’s total energy consumption,...
Pakistan’s LNG supply at risk of running out in less than a month 🇵🇰 🚢 Officials warn that there may not be enough gas to meet power needs after April 14 Pakistan imports 99% of its LNG from Qatar. But supplies...
“When a hegemon abandons the legitimating ideas that built its empire and operates on naked power alone, it has already begun to fall.” @Noneotherthanwe
The episode examines how the Middle East conflict has upended global MTBE arbitrage, causing sharp price spikes and volatility across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Asian producers face supply constraints as Middle‑East feedstocks dry up, while European demand for cheap...
"Minnesota corn farmers withstood a trade war. The war in Iran is the next cost challenge. The conflict is increasing the cost of an essential fertilizer. With corn prices already down, it’s another financial headache for farmers." https://t.co/NT2pX8mfN9
Should the Fed hike due to a supply shock in oil? No. Should the Fed cut due to oil supply shock causing weaker real growth. Also no. Get a grip pundits.
Geopolitical events are increasingly moving directly onto corporate profit and loss statements, reshaping input costs, working capital and supplier access. Most firms lack visibility beyond tier‑one suppliers, forcing them to scramble when crises emerge. Without a structured risk‑assessment framework, companies...
Sweden has seized its first shadow fleet vessel. They even went after a bulk carrier rather than a tanker. As more countries join in on the crackdown on Russia's shadow fleet, the dominoes are beginning to fall. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/pUmv12pCMy
So Iran has basically set up VIP access (or a separate customs checkpoint, if you prefer) for friendly vessels, per JPM “In practice, this creates a system in which the Strait is not formally closed, yet transit increasingly depends on political...
The Supreme Court invalidated the Trump administration’s executive‑order tariffs on foreign goods, reaffirming that Congress alone controls commerce regulation. The ruling does not eliminate presidential tariff authority, as statutes like the Trade Act’s Section 301 and Section 122 still grant limited powers....
3 Developments: RBA hike, and mkt favors another one by mid-year. Trump-Xi meeting postponed by at least a month. Reason? War. Beijing tightens exports of fertilizer components. Oil firm but in yesterday's range. USD quiet. See https://t.co/QYsOxDPAlE...
"...geopolitics & inflation replace AI bubble as biggest tail risks." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Russia’s military announced the capture of twelve settlements in Ukraine during the first two weeks of March, extending its foothold along both the eastern and southern fronts. The advances were highlighted by General Valery Gerasimov during a frontline visit. Kyiv’s...
Rising U.S. private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, signaling credit stress & shadow banking risks. This erodes confidence in paper assets, investors flock to hard money with no counterparty risk. Bullish for gold & silver as safe-haven hedges. https://t.co/TcCYRkMkIZ
Have developed world interest rates hit their nadir - courtesy of energy prices? Perhaps one point of key implication is the possible pivot is the gold. Already eschewing its safe haven roots, a turn higher in real rates will be...
The headlines around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are flipping daily, which is keeping #oil volatility (realized and implied) elevated. Meanwhile, the Brent-WTI spread has jumped back near its highest in 3 years. https://t.co/h3S81SQWjn
The divergence between the performance of China’s economy and its stock market has been a topic for decades. This may finally explain it. https://t.co/Kuo5CiNr8e https://t.co/6CgHtlepQL
All talk, no action from other central banks this week, except for the RBA which hiked rates to 4.10%, the highest among DM central banks. https://t.co/JKCGcBPwIG
Iran war chokepoints begin to cast doubt on global chip supply https://t.co/oHuurB7rl9 via @debbywuintaipei @ckyrious https://t.co/EFKkB6ppV0
I write for the @Telegraph on the military challenges in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. BLUF: the threat to shipping can be reduced but eliminating it is very resource intensive and can only be made permanent through politics: https://t.co/N9pN5Z9XmD
The US drops Section 301 trade bombshell on 16 countries | Article | Hinrich Foundation https://t.co/d4DGMQE6Zp
Rising cost of fuel already an interest‑rate rise on households and businesses Higher Aus interest rates don’t fix inflation from rising oil prices, nor tax oil companies gaining a windfall. Who in Aus pays the price? Those who can least afford it https://t.co/6qbQujyqgg
Crude oil prices ticked down after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all but its "enemies", lifting stocks and pulling down the US dollar. Is the crisis ending? #oil #IranWar #stocks #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/1OST27OxI9
I was in Hong Kong in Feb 2020 and remember this being a very weird time. Investors had been worrying about the US-China trade war under Trump 1.0. Then China effectively shut down most of its economy and markets basically...
