Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced plans to devolve a share of national tax revenues, starting with income tax, to England’s regional mayors. The Treasury will also allocate £2.3 bn in city investment funds and allow future business‑rates revenue to stay with metro authorities. The proposal, to be detailed in the autumn budget, aims to create a permanent shift of fiscal power away from Westminster and address geographic inequality. Reeves framed the move as part of a broader growth strategy that includes closer EU ties, AI investment, and regional growth corridors.
My latest on tomorrow FED rate decision and what to expect for stocks and the US dollar
A cross‑party think‑tank report, funded by McCain Foods, warns that the UK could face a £150 billion economic hit by 2050 if sustainable farming is not scaled up. It estimates regenerative practices could unlock over £56 billion in natural capital by 2035...
President Trump indicated his long‑awaited summit with Xi Jinping could be pushed back five to six weeks, likely occurring after April 20, as China signals tentative approval but remains cautious amid the ongoing war in Europe. A senior Chinese delegation...
War, oil, and crypto collide with Ram Ahluwalia, Austin Campbell, Chris Perkins 🛢️ Why elevated oil risks flipping markets into an inflationary regime 📉 Deleveraging everywhere ₿ "Short gold, long Bitcoin" trade is back on the desk 🎲 Prediction markets...
The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 shows globalization holding steady at a 25% index in 2025, matching the 2022 peak. Global trade grew faster than any year since 2017, driven largely by a surge in AI‑related product shipments that accounted...
U.S. Central Command confirmed that on March 17, 2026 it deployed multiple 5,000‑pound deep‑penetrator bunker‑buster bombs against hardened Iranian missile sites along the coast of the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes targeted underground launch and storage facilities that could threaten...
The episode examines how the recent surge in oil prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, is affecting U.S. shale production and global economies. CEO Mike Eastman of Tall City explains that despite higher prices, his company is not altering...
Standard Chartered raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85.50 a barrel, up from $70, citing a 7.4‑8.2 million bpd supply cut from the Middle‑East war and limited off‑ramps. The bank projects quarterly Brent prices ranging from $78 in Q1 to $98...
On March 17 the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points, marking its second straight increase and a sharp reversal from the gradual easing path pursued throughout 2025. The hikes respond to inflation running above...
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that, effective March 20, 2026, it will begin canceling Importer of Record (IOR) numbers for declarations submitted after 12:01 a.m. ET. Importers must now provide an updated CBP 5106 form, government‑issued photo ID, EIN verification...
Argentine President Javier Milei denounced Iran at a ceremony marking the 34th anniversary of the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires. He reiterated Argentina’s support for the United States and Israel amid the ongoing US‑Israeli military campaign...
It should be taken with a grain of salt when you hear European and Asian countries saying they won’t help to open the Strait. Majority of these countries are short oil and will face severe crises if they don’t act....
Energy Intelligence’s March 2026 update highlights rapid AI integration across the world’s 50 largest energy firms, with national oil companies leading and three regional hubs emerging in North America, Europe and the Gulf. Simultaneously, the escalating US‑Israel‑Iran conflict is disrupting...
The U.S. Navy has transferred the Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) Tripoli, together with THAAD and Patriot air‑defense systems, from the Indo‑Pacific to the Middle East. Prediction‑market data show the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic has...
The latest balance‑of‑payments data shows that when the U.S. goods trade balance is adjusted for gold, the deficit expands beyond the headline figure. The red line in the chart, representing the gold‑adjusted balance, sits noticeably lower than the blue unadjusted...
In this live Sinocism episode, FT China correspondent Demetri Sevastopulo discusses the delayed Trump‑China summit, attributing the postponement to domestic political concerns and the ongoing Iran conflict rather than bilateral tensions. He outlines the key players shaping U.S. China policy...
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President Cyril Ramaphosa has kept South Africa’s embassy in Washington without a formally appointed ambassador for over a year, opting to run the mission through Deputy Ambassador Thabo Thage as chargé d’affaires. Senior adviser Alistair Ruiters, based in Pretoria, has become the...
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President Donald Trump criticized NATO allies for refusing to join the U.S.–Israeli military effort against Iran, calling the decision a “very foolish mistake.” He urged nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s attacks have threatened a key...
China’s National Development and Reform Commission has summoned Meta and Manus executives to question the $2 billion acquisition of the Singapore‑based AI startup. The move appears aimed at penalising individuals linked to the deal and may include exit bans preventing Manus...
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s 2025 budget will outspend the outgoing Trudeau government by roughly $68 billion over the 2025‑2030 period, according to a Fraser Institute analysis. The plan doubles projected deficits to $321.7 billion, compared with Trudeau’s $154.4 billion, and pushes total federal...
The Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, leaving importers entitled to refunds but without a clear administrative process. The Trump administration is developing an online portal for refund applications while simultaneously probing forced‑labor based...
Tomorrow will be the most imporant FOMC meeting of our lives Until the next one
In Episode 48, Alex Jung and Wesley Blight discuss how the recent Middle East conflict—particularly the direct confrontations involving the US, Israel, and Iran—affects investment portfolios. They explain that while energy prices and inflation expectations spike due to disrupted oil...
In this episode, Shou Nakazawa explains how Prime Minister Sanae Takai‑ji’s conservative administration is reshaping Japan’s equity market through three structural pillars: heightened economic security and supply‑chain resilience, a sweeping AI and compute revolution, and massive infrastructure investment for national...
Oil prices surged on Tuesday, with Brent climbing to $103.42 a barrel and U.S. crude reaching $96.21, reflecting a 2‑3% jump amid heightened geopolitical tension. President Donald Trump warned that NATO allies are unwilling to join a U.S.-led naval escort...
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the Rajya Sabha that India’s economy has withstood the pandemic, supply‑chain strains, the Russia‑Ukraine war, and the current West Asia conflict without severe shocks. She highlighted the passage of the Appropriation Bill 2026, which adds...
The Iran‑Israel war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a vital source of petro‑capital that Gulf sovereigns traditionally channel into global finance. This disruption threatens the $1.4 trillion of assets held in UAE financial hubs and has already forced...
China is grappling with a global energy shock that has widened the price gap between its domestic fuel and the higher rates in neighboring Hong Kong. The disparity, driven by lingering subsidies and import dependence, prompts Hong Kong motorists to cross the...
The market is pricing in three things simultaneously: • Oil stays above $100 • Fed cuts rates • Inflation falls to 2% You can have two. Not all three. If oil wins → stagflation. If Fed capitulates → dollar collapses. If demand craters → recession. Every...
Here is what I think will happen if USA can't keep strait of Hormuz open - I do think that USA will have a very low threshold for pain in the Gulf because Trump is elected on avoiding 'forever wars'....
The House Ways and Means trade subcommittee held a hearing on March 17 to examine WTO reform amid persistent challenges for U.S. agriculture. Chairman Adrian Smith urged the organization to address non‑tariff barriers that now limit market access. Former Trump...
The word warflation does not appear in any economics textbook. But it is the most accurate word for what is coming.
No one told Rubio that the United States is blocking oil shipments to Cuba. Trump wants to keep in the dark on this.
The article outlines a shift toward "distributed deterrence," where precision‑strike weapons such as cheap missiles and long‑range drones enable smaller states to threaten critical infrastructure far beyond their borders. Declining costs and mobile launch platforms make these capabilities accessible to...
PANTHEON MACRO: In a $150/barrel oil scenario, “we think inflation would peak in Q2 at about 6% ..” https://t.co/lFerTyCGCR
When the dust settles after tomorrow's Fed meeting, the potential economic costs of the war in Iran are likely to feel more real. Headlines will be hawkish with a greater emphasis on inflation, but downside risks to employment and disposable...
Nissan announced it will begin exporting the Murano SUV, built in Smyrna, Tennessee, to Japan early next year, marking the first American‑made Nissan sold in Japan since the 1990s. The move follows recent regulatory changes that allow U.S.‑produced vehicles to...
This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/97kgL1q8Hx
Plenty to talk about this week as @MrMBrown and I resume our weekly podcast. Amongst other things we'll be looking at crude oil's impact on markets which could well reverberate for some time #oilcrisis https://t.co/B6h8K0JLAj
FOMC interest rate decision will happen within 24 hours. The market expects a 99.1% odds of no rate cuts. https://t.co/mwK46vPADA
There's a good chance that the entire Russian shadow fleet could be dismantled within months. Beyond the impacts on Russian, Iranian, and other oil supplies, global shipping could be shifting towards a shortage as the vessels are retired. #crude #crudeoil #geopolitics...
SCOOP: The Trump administration intends to take additional steps to ease sanctions on #Venezuela’s oil sector in an effort to increase crude production as the #Iran war sends prices surging, sources tell me @GaripPatricia @peterbmillard @zerpius. https://t.co/aefUIb9tHJ
Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the second straight month, 25 bps move up to 4.10%. https://t.co/tBFSesl4qo
🇧🇷🇨🇳 Brazilian officials will head to China next week to discuss the ongoing sanitary issues with soybean exports. Brazil's minister said they have stepped up inspection efforts, yet he also said there has been no change in protocol. https://t.co/RrTP0clcZT
"Global airlines sounded the alarm ... over soaring jet fuel prices triggered by the US-Israeli war against Iran, warning of hundreds of millions of extra costs, higher fares and cuts to some routes." Delta fuel costs up by $400mn for March...
Keep Hormuz closed long enough and it is a mathematical and logistical certainty. The only debate is "How long is 'long enough' to make that happen?"
Actually Higher Oil Prices, cause Demand destruction that causes recession that causes Fed to cut
Oil prices climbing to $125 could shift the global economic outlook – Morgan Stanley’s Seth Carpenter @seekingalpha https://t.co/W6t7v236nu
The equity market was "resilient" at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war as well...it took five weeks of high oil prices before stocks started to capitulate to inflation pressures in 2022. https://t.co/CXaKnBXbHv
