Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
The U.S. Treasury is expanding sanction waivers to allow imports of Venezuelan fertilizer as part of a broader effort to curb soaring input costs for American farmers. The move follows comments from Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins that the administration is exploring every avenue to keep fertilizer prices down amid supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Venezuela can produce just over three million tons each of urea and ammonia annually and exported $211 million of fertilizer in 2024, primarily to Brazil and Colombia. Fertilizer Institute chief economist Veronica Nigh welcomed the potential relief for U.S. growers.
Australian mining magnate Gina Rinehart’s rare‑earth holdings have surged to over $2.4 billion, driven by a global push to diversify away from China. The portfolio, once a modest side‑investment, now represents a significant portion of her $25 billion wealth. China still controls...
President Donald Trump’s import tariffs have imposed more than $35.4 billion in costs on automakers during the past year, according to Automotive News analysis. Japanese giant Toyota bears the heaviest burden at roughly $9.1 billion, while other foreign brands such as BMW,...
India’s external debt hovered at $746 billion by September 2025, translating to a 19% debt‑to‑GDP ratio—well below the peaks of the FY91 and FY13 crises. The debt‑service ratio remains modest at 6% of export earnings, while foreign‑exchange reserves cover 94% of total...
The UK Department for Business and Trade is poised to slash tariff‑rate quotas for steel imports by up to 50%, targeting hot‑rolled coil (HRC) and hot‑dip galvanized (HDG) products. Argus estimates the cuts would create annual shortfalls of roughly 488,000 t...
U.S. container ports are bolstering security and coping with sharply higher bunker‑fuel costs as the Iran‑Israel conflict escalates. While the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, shippers are rerouting around the chokepoint, extending voyage times and raising freight expenses. Major...
The interview with Peter Alexander, founder of Z‑Ben Advisors, challenges the polarized Western view of China by highlighting a pragmatic, on‑the‑ground assessment. He argues that China is not on the brink of collapse nor poised for outright global domination, but...
Hello from Germany, where investor confidence plummets on the Iran war. An expectations index by the ZEW institute decreased to -0.5 in March from 58.3 in Feb. That’s below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, which had foreseen a reading...
The FOMC meets this week but no one's paying attention. Markets are focused on geopolitics, not rate decisions. Here's what actually matters: the dot plot, the statement language, and the three scenarios that could move markets.
Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a 49% chance of a U.S. recession looms within the next year as crude oil prices surge amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Brent crude jumped nearly 40% in March, reaching $119.50 per barrel, while...
The Fed starts its most consequential meeting of the year today. Oil is above $100. The S&P 500 clings to its 200-day moving average. Wednesday's dot plot will reveal whether any rate cuts survive in 2026. The answer could set...
China’s 2024 Two Sessions highlighted a paradoxical policy mix as Beijing seeks to revive a slowing economy. Leaders stressed boosting domestic consumption while simultaneously ramping up state‑led investment in advanced manufacturing and strategic technologies. The 15th Five‑Year Plan reinforced this...
President Donald Trump hinted at delaying his state visit to Beijing unless China helped reopen the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a brief media frenzy. Beijing’s foreign ministry responded calmly, accepting the postponement without framing it as U.S. pressure and emphasizing...
The U.S. International Trade Commission has advanced four packaging‑related trade cases this year, adding to a December antidumping ruling on thermo‑formed molded‑fiber products from China and Vietnam. The new investigations target polypropylene corrugated boxes from China, PET film from China,...
U.S. steel prices remain elevated because tariff uncertainty adds a risk premium that outpaces weak demand and softening industrial indicators. Reduced imports have pushed buyers toward higher‑cost domestic mills, providing short‑term price support despite limited capacity. Ongoing legal challenges to...
Brazil's National Treasury announced an expanded bond market intervention after a sharp rise in oil prices lifted inflation expectations and pushed sovereign yields upward. The authority increased direct purchases and offered additional liquidity to stabilize benchmark rates and limit volatility....
Croatia has posted strong, resilient GDP growth over the past decade, outpacing OECD and euro‑area averages. However, a rapidly shrinking and ageing population threatens that momentum, with the working‑age cohort projected to fall 25% between 2024 and 2050. OECD modelling...
French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed Nigerian billionaire Tony Elumelu to head the newly created Africa‑France Impact Coalition, a forum designed to deepen private‑sector collaboration between France and Africa. The coalition will be highlighted at the France‑Africa summit in Nairobi...
Gold rose to $5,049 per ounce and silver to $82.76 per ounce on 17 March as the U.S. dollar eased from a 10‑month high. The rally was fueled by the weaker dollar, central‑bank meeting anticipation, and a concurrent jump in crude‑oil...
The outbreak of war in Iran has shattered the previously bullish consensus on Wall Street, prompting professional money managers to slash global growth forecasts and shift heavily into cash. Cash allocations among hedge funds, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds...
Ports of Indiana announced the launch of its first overseas trade office in Ireland, appointing maritime veteran Brian Dooley to lead the European Trade Office based in Cork and Kildare. The office aims to develop a direct Europe‑Indiana container service...
In this episode of Money Life, chief economist Jeanette Garrity warns that the war in Iran has revived recession and bubble concerns, estimating a 30‑35% chance of a recession. Technical analyst Adam Grimes argues that current market volatility—especially in stocks...
Amid heightened Middle East conflict disrupting traditional maritime corridors, China and Russia convened the inaugural China‑Russia Logistics Business Forum in Moscow to explore deeper logistics cooperation. The dialogue emphasized expanding the Arctic Northern Sea Route, leveraging ports such as Arkhangelsk...
The Indonesia‑U.S. Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), signed in February 2026, obliges Indonesia to eliminate tariffs on 99 percent of American goods, purchase billions in U.S. energy and aircraft, and surrender digital‑tax authority, while the United States faces a 19 percent tariff on...
Global demand for copper and other transition metals is set to triple by 2030, prompting a scramble for new sources. Uganda’s dormant Kilembe copper mine and newly identified mineral belts could supply millions of tonnes of copper and rare‑earth elements....
🚨 TRADERS JUST TIPPED THEIR HAND BEFORE FED The market is already telling us what to expect from the Fed - and smart traders are paying attention. Stocks are rallying and the dollar is pulling back ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. That's...
Trumps learns the hard way the importance of diplomacy and soft power… GeopoliticalGuy | Substack https://bit.ly/4rAmIyw #Geopolitics #Iran #NATO #Hormuz #Trump
Canada’s finance ministry has instructed the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) to launch a safeguard inquiry into imports of certain canned and frozen vegetables, covering tariff headings 7.10 and 20.05. The tribunal has 180 days, with a recommendation due by...
India’s tea imports surged to 50.14 million kg in fiscal 2024‑25, exactly twice the 25.21 million kg recorded in 2023‑24. The first ten months of 2025‑26 already show 33.55 million kg imported, underscoring a sustained upward trend. In response, the Tea Board issued strict labeling and...
The U.S. is shifting trade enforcement toward economic security, targeting import‑tariff evasion with a new Trade Fraud Task Force and expanded DOJ whistleblower incentives. In 2025 CBP collected a record $200 billion in tariffs, prompting $2 million funding for the task force...
Indian textile exports fell 2.1% YoY to $18.36 bn in April ’25‑February ’26, while apparel exports edged up 0.5% to $14.53 bn. Combined, the sector’s total exports slipped 1% to $32.89 bn versus the previous year. February 2026 showed a sharper apparel decline...
India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal announced that the country will postpone signing the bilateral trade agreement with the United States until Washington finalizes a revised tariff framework. The delay follows a U.S. Supreme Court decision that invalidated several Trump-era tariff...
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
My list of accounts to follow for quality information about the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz holds up two weeks later… 👇👇
Have sense that the floodgates will open on EZ inflation forecasts tomorrow. We have been updating daily since last week with the final HICPs from the individual countries, and I still think we're behind the curve ahead of the numbers...
China learned economic coercion from the best, as I wrote with Adam Szubin in this coauthored 2023 essay in @ForeignAffairs: https://t.co/fsxpb7Zusb
Pakistan looks like the Asian energy importer that is most at risk because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/7rDXmrxVqy
Very good meeting with Greece's Minister of Economy & Finance Kyriakos @Pierrakakis, the President of the Eurogroup, at IEA HQ in Paris We discussed recent developments in energy markets amid the war in the Middle East and the potential economic implications...
LA is coming back strong from weak conditions earlier this year. As port volumes return from Chinese New Year, we could see a resurgence of momentum.
🇺🇸🇨🇳Trump says they are "resetting" the meeting with China that was supposed to occur March 31-April 2. That's now been pushed 5-6 weeks out, putting it around April 21 - 28. Ag markets had been hoping the meeting would result in more...
👇This is the way (to look at marginal consumer spending) spot on, again @EPBResearch !
Despite the recent steepening of the back-end, hard to fade and set up for next week's auctions with FOMC tomorrow. Fed clarification on how they view the recent crude inflation will have a strong impact on the...
Coming up in 1 hour LIVE @TheNationalNews Discussion of economic impact of Mideast warfare With @ManusCranny https://t.co/1QprixfNpq
Is there ever NOT a "refinancing wall"? Feel like I've been seeing charts like that for 20 years...
PHOTO(S) OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil — and Iran its getting (some of) its money. Three weeks into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. (No damage visible at this resolution) Photo @CopernicusEU...
Great piece by @MelissaLawford in @Telegraph on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and what's going on in global markets. Brent is up 42% from before the war, a big risk premium. As oil tanker traffic picks up, this...
Private credit default rate just hit 9.2%. That's higher than 2008 bank loan peaks. $1.8 trillion in assets, $100B in secondary liquidity. 18:1 mismatch. When exits close, panic starts. https://t.co/PTz3djlLMl
BRUSSELS, March 17 (Reuters) - European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas pushed back on Tuesday against a call by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever to normalise relations with Moscow and regain access to cheap Russian energy.
Germany just refused to join the Hormuz escort coalition. "We lack the mandate." $100+ oil isn't a blip. It's a policy choice the West keeps making by not making one. $WTI https://t.co/hftmXwpdXG
Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay at Phenomenal World posted this nice map of the global LNG market. It's featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/hQaQMt4GjH
