Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans to establish an international port alliance under the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to link key maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Panama Canal. The proposal comes as China faces heightened geopolitical friction, including a recent dispute with Panama over port operations and escalating tensions surrounding Iran’s war in the Gulf. By coordinating ports across the alliance, Beijing hopes to safeguard shipping routes and reduce reliance on traditional Western‑controlled corridors. Analysts view the move as a strategic effort to expand China’s influence over global trade logistics.
China-linked Hormuz transits retreat to shipping’s opaque fringes ▶️China-linked traffic through Hormuz has slowed sharply after recent attacks, with transits largely confined to an opaque bulker and one sanctioned VLCC ▶️Mainstream Chinese state-owned tanker fleets continue to stay out, citing safety, insurance...
Global funds are turning to Malaysia as the Iran‑Russia conflict rattles Asian markets. The country’s political stability, current‑account surplus and status as one of the few net oil exporters in the region have limited equity outflows, keeping the KLCI near‑flat...
Kevin Hassett highlighted on CBS Face the Nation that oil futures are pricing a rapid decline in oil prices, even as spot gasoline prices surge due to current Strait disruptions. The forward curve suggests Brent will not revert to its pre‑war...
FOMC is the biggest event this week. Interest rate decisions and Fed commentary can shift market direction, volatility, and momentum across Nasdaq and gold. Price often reacts aggressively around these releases, especially near key supply and demand levels. If you’re trading this week,...
Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles has stopped short of dismissing fuel rationing as the Iran‑Israel conflict drags into its third week, stoking concerns over domestic supply. While officials claim there is no immediate shortage, global oil markets are already feeling pressure...
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
India- and Pakistan-owned ships transit Strait of Hormuz ▶️Iranian-linked tonnage still dominates Hormuz transits ▶️Attacks on shipping are succeeding in halting crossings ▶️Eastbound transits prevail westbound journeys ▶️US ‘fine’ with Iranian tankers sailing through Hormuz to ‘supply’ the rest of the...
U.S. President Donald Trump announced he will push back the high‑profile summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping by roughly a month, moving it from the end of March to early May. The delay is attributed to the escalating war in...
If a meaningful fraction of the analyses I’m seeing on major supply disruptions to global energy, food and pharmaceutical inputs is real, the humanitarian crises and government responses that are about to unfold will make COVID mayhem feel quaint.
The S&P 500 dropped only 5% during a Middle East war that shut down oil transit routes. A 10-15% correction was expected. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/7hi7kivw1h
The Iran‑Israel war has reignited fears of a major disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending shockwaves through global markets. Gold futures remain near $5,013 per ounce while silver hovers around $81, reflecting heightened volatility but limited...
Drone strikes fuel truck at Dubai airport. What is happening is more than the Strait of Hormuz and oil. Supply and supply chains. A key product not moving is fertilizer as planting season is arriving. The impact on crop output...
Market Update with Landy: Macro Monday 03/16/2026 Brought to you by @davidgokhshtein @gokhshtein and hosted by @CryptoLandy. https://t.co/hUnE1k6tKY
China’s January‑February 2026 data showed a surprising rebound, with industrial production climbing to 6.3% year‑on‑year, up from 5.2% in December, driven by stronger‑than‑expected exports. Fixed‑asset investment also turned positive, moving from a 13% contraction in December to a 1.8% expansion....
UN Shipping Agency Says 3,200 Ships Trapped West of Hormuz as Emergency Council Meeting Called https://t.co/JURA89iBEy
US allies in Europe and Asia are in no hurry to bow to Trump's demand in helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN MAKING ENEMIES, EVEN WITH FOREIGN ENEMIES. https://t.co/er5H0ym7dv
South Korea and Japan have led global equity sell‑offs after the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict drove oil prices above $100 a barrel. The Kospi plunged 12% and the Nikkei slid nearly 9% since February 28, outpacing declines in Europe and the United States....
Here’s why high oil prices are hitting places like the Philippines a lot harder than others (net energy importer, deregulated, very weak currency, relatively low income) 🔉on https://t.co/qMgihHYgGD
I am normally not a big fan of conspiracy theories to explain market phenomena. But #Brent futures slid from an intraday high of just over $106 to settle at $100.21 on Monday. The only “explanation” I can find is “because some...
Redfin economists expect mortgage rates to keep oscillating as the Iran‑Israel conflict pushes energy prices higher and markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s second‑to‑last FOMC meeting this week. Mortgage rates have climbed from roughly 6.0% to 6.36%, while the ten‑year...
The Yen has fallen below its previous low from mid-2024. This even though we're within two months of the NY Fed "rate check," which temporarily lifted it. As long as Japan believes in FX intervention, it's in denial on debt...
If Iran wins, it's the end of five eras. 1991-2026: the unipolar era 1974-2026: the petrodollar era 1945-2026: the postwar era 1776-2026: the union era 1492-2026: the Western era Specifically, the end of the petrodollar (1974) would also be the end of the unipolar moment (1991)...
The Strait of Hormuz shut completely after Iran’s retaliation, halting all commercial traffic and stranding nearly a fifth of the global tanker fleet. While crude oil found temporary relief through Saudi and UAE pipelines and strategic reserves, other energy streams—LNG,...
Disposable personal income is rising. Oil price is rising. Budget deficits are rising. Going to be very hard to cut rates
Governments across Asia and Europe are rolling out fuel subsidies, price caps, and emergency stock releases to blunt the surge in energy and food costs triggered by the US‑Israeli war on Iran. The conflict has cut roughly one‑fifth of global...
Since the third Gulf war erupted three weeks ago, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has immobilized roughly 10‑15 % of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude above $106 a barrel. President Donald Trump has ordered the largest-ever strategic reserve...
The Gulf region is sliding into recession as refined fuel prices surge amid tightening global energy markets. Distillates such as diesel and jet fuel have risen far faster than crude, with some products nearly tripling in cost. The sharp price...
The most important chart right now. Note that this only tracks ships with their AIS (Automated Identification System) turned on, think the GPS on your phone or in your car. More ships are going through, but they turn off their AIS. But once...
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a sustained oil‑price spike—driven by the Iran conflict and a closed Strait of Hormuz—could push the U.S. into a recession. Moody’s machine‑learning recession model, which previously indicated a 49% chance, is expected to...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is under market pressure to increase interest rates as inflation remains sticky. The author argues the RBA should refrain from a hike, citing a historical parallel where the European Central Bank raised rates in...
The link to this afternoon’s conversation with Christiane Amanpour. Thanks so much, Christiane, for having me on your show. https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/16/tv/video/amanpour-el-erian-trump-iran-hormuz-economy #economy @cnn #middleeastwar #oil #inflation #growth @pbs @camanpour
Energi Media Expert Incurs Wrath of White House Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro claims Iran created a "terror premium" of $5-$15/b for decades. Nonsense, said Ed Hirs, it doesn't exist. Then the sparks flew. #trumptariffchaos #uspoli #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/Fn3qWrIpsOI
Canadian pulse exporters say sales to the Middle East have effectively frozen due to the Iran‑related conflict. Shipping lines are diverting cargo, imposing surcharges up to $2,000 per container and rerouting fees, making deliveries unsafe and uneconomical. The MENA region,...
The Chancellor of Germany has responded to President Trump’s request for help in opening the Strait of Hormuz… In simple English he said: “That war is not our war and we won’t be involved.” Germany is the LARGEST & RICHEST...
Global economic uncertainty is nearly twice as high now as it was during the pandemic.
In this episode, host Tim Miller and editor‑at‑large Bill Kristol discuss the escalating conflict in Iran and its broader geopolitical fallout. Kristol argues that the war has fractured U.S. alliances, especially with Europe, as Trump’s unilateral actions left allies feeling...
For those bullish wars, don't forget: WARS ARE INFLATIONARY which can accelerate economic deterioration that is already in motion. Now pit INFLATION against this backdrop: liquidity versus solvency.👇 Liquidity crisis can quickly turn to solvency crisis. Fed can step in during liquidity episodes, Fed...
Trump Says U.S. Has Asked to Delay Summit With China’s Xi—President Trump said the U.S. had asked to delay a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that had been expected to begin later this month in Beijing. @KThomasDC https://t.co/RIlqe39hUE
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff reactivated a direct texting channel with Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi amid the two‑week war. The exchange, focused on ending hostilities, marks the first known direct contact between the parties since the conflict began. Iran’s foreign...
Lots of attention on the GCC - but as drones hit the Majnoon field, what does the war mean for Iraq? A very dangerous time ahead https://t.co/nO2Yr3HQde @ColumbiaUEnergy
My view of Trump's grasp of reality: "Trump foolishly thought he was going to easily put out a little brush fire in Iran. Instead, he poked a stick into a hornet's nest. It's fueled a raging inferno that's generating massive collateral...
Walmart has finalized its 2026‑27 trans‑Pacific shipping contracts with six major carriers, prompting container lines to resume stalled negotiations. The war in the Middle East had paused talks, but carriers now urge importers to lock in space allocations before the...
A new US-China “Board of Trade”? The world has never before seen an attempt to manage trade at this scale. If the US government wants to do this seriously, it really has to do its homework. by @AnaSwanson https://t.co/ooAO5hs8Jv
"China is tightening its curbs on fertilizer exports as the war in Iran disrupts trade of key crop nutrients, driving up prices globally." https://t.co/X35yEEwYZH
#Cuba is moving to allow more investment from Cubans living abroad as part of a larger effort to bolster the state-dominated economy amid increased pressure from the US. https://t.co/uhnTdxoWpo
Bessent now finds himself in the position of the Bank of England in 1992 when Soros, Druckenmiller, & Bessent "broke the BOE": Trying to prevent the USD from collapsing v. oil with a finite amount of oil reserves as markets &...
Well that’s one way to Make Venezuela’s Oil Great Again…by shutting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices into the $90s and $100s https://t.co/0dXdhaPaQ6
My take on the effect of the US-Israel war on India: "It will hit India particularly hard if the price of oil hits $120 / barrel or $200 / barrel because India is the third largest oil importer in the world."...
I believe this is the first sucessull Iranian attack against an **oil / gas field** since the war started (previous strikes against oil facilities involved refineries, terminals, and storage tanks). (Althought the tweet calls it an oil field, it likely...
