Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Trump Says US to Raise Tariff Rate on EU Cars, Trucks to 25%
President Donald Trump announced that the United States will raise tariffs on imported European Union cars and trucks to 25% after accusing the bloc of breaching a recently negotiated trade agreement. The new levy excludes vehicles assembled in U.S. facilities, preserving a tariff‑free status for domestically produced models. The transatlantic deal originally capped EU tariffs at 15% in exchange for eliminating U.S. levies on industrial goods. Analysts warn the move could increase vehicle prices and trigger retaliatory measures from Europe.
Oil Rally Stalls as Iran Proposal Triggers Profit-Taking
Oil prices stalled below $110 per barrel after a week of extreme swings, with Brent’s June contract briefly touching $126. The slowdown was driven by Iran’s latest negotiation proposal, which sparked profit‑taking amid uncertainty over President Trump’s 60‑day war‑powers deadline....
Wrap-Up From VettaFi’s Q2 Market Outlook Symposium
VettaFi’s Q2 Market Outlook Symposium highlighted a suite of thematic strategies for advisors, from active fixed‑income ETFs to emerging sectors like defense drones and physical AI. Panels showcased the rise of autocallable ETFs, record $6 billion inflows into CLO ETFs, and...
Freddie Mac Says 30‑yr Mortgage Rate Climbs to 6.30% as Middle East Tensions Lift Bond Yields
Freddie Mac announced the national average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate rose 7 basis points to 6.30% and the 15‑year rate to 5.64% amid heightened Middle‑East conflict. The jump reflects pressure on Treasury yields, underscoring the bond market’s sensitivity to geopolitical...
Australian and Japanese Markets Rise as Tokyo Intervenes in Yen Amid Iran Tensions
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 jumped 0.74% to 8,729.80 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.38% to 59,513.12 on Friday, buoyed by a reported yen‑intervention by Tokyo. The moves came despite heightened geopolitical risk from escalating tensions with Iran.
Investors Dump Philippine Securities as War Rattles Markets
Foreign portfolio investors pulled $1.96 billion from the Philippines in March, marking the largest three‑month outflow and shifting the first‑quarter net balance to a $2.81 billion loss. The retreat was most acute in government securities, which saw a $1.3 billion net outflow after...
Electric Car Interest Surges Following Spike in Fuel Prices
Fuel price spikes caused by the Iran‑U.S. conflict have sparked a sharp rise in electric‑vehicle interest across Europe, with Renault reporting a 42% jump in UK website enquiries and EVs making up just under 50% of its April registrations. Similar...
U.S. Treasury Expands Hormuz ‘Toll’ Warning, Puts Maritime Industry on Notice
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a new alert expanding its warning on Iranian “safe passage” toll demands in the Strait of Hormuz. The guidance details how payments—whether cash, digital assets, swaps, or charitable donations—can trigger...
Trump: Tariffs on European Cars and Trucks Coming Into the US Will Increase to 25%
President Trump announced on Truth Social that tariffs on European‑made cars and trucks will be raised to 25% starting next week, citing perceived non‑compliance with a trade agreement. The move follows a Supreme Court ruling that the first tranche of...
Iran’s Threat to the World Economy
Iran has seized effective control of Strait of Hormuz traffic while the United States has responded with a naval blockade aimed at stopping Iranian oil exports. Both sides believe they hold the upper hand, creating a dangerous stalemate that could...
Transpacific Defies Downtrend as Container Spot Rates Climb on War-Driven Demand
Container spot rates on the Shanghai‑Los Angeles lane rose 2% to $2,930 per 40 ft, marking a 34% gain since the Iran conflict began. Far‑East to U.S. west‑coast freight is up roughly 50% overall, while the Shanghai‑New York leg slipped 2% to...
Gemini Capacity Cutbacks Make India-Med Market Hotter for Rival Carriers
Gemini Cooperation has withdrawn its high‑capacity ME11/IMX loop linking the Middle East, India and the Mediterranean, tightening supply in the India‑Mediterranean trade lane. Spot rates jumped $800‑$1,000 per FEU from late March through April before stabilising. In response, Gemini’s partners...
Could OPEC Lose Its Grip on Oil?
The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, ending a six‑decade partnership that had bolstered the cartel’s credibility. While Saudi Arabia retains the lion’s share of spare capacity and Russia continues to back the...
Tech Rally Defies Stagflation as ISM Stalls
Basically, the call wall (SPX $7200 was ceiling/now floor) keeps getting rolled up as AI/Tech/Memory names beat, while the real economy enters stagflation. US APRIL ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX UNCHANGED AT 52.7; EST. 53.2 US ISM MFG PRICES RISE TO 84.6, HIGHEST SINCE...
Has De-Dollarization Begun?
U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating conflict with Iran is prompting global policymakers to question the dollar’s dominance. At the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, officials highlighted the erosion of confidence in the U.S. financial system. UK Chancellor...
Daily Memo: Understandings and Defenses
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met on April 30, urging both governments to ready high‑level engagement, broaden cooperation, and keep strategic differences in check. In a separate video call, Vice Premier He Lifeng...
April ISM Manufacturing: How Long Can the AI Manufacturing Boom Keep Exploding Prices From Creating a Consumer Implosion?
The Institute for Supply Management’s April manufacturing index held steady at 52.7, indicating modest expansion, while the new‑orders subindex climbed to 54.1, largely fueled by AI data‑center projects. However, the employment subindex slipped to 46.4, its lowest level in four...
Credit Managers Warn on Iran as Defaults Rise, Spreads Poised to Widen
Credit managers surveyed by the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers warn that defaults are set to rise sharply, while credit spreads are expected to widen only modestly. The Credit Spread Index fell to -46.2, its lowest level since March...
Biofuel Use Pushes up Food Prices: Is Demand Here to Stay?
Recent oil price spikes from the Iran war have accelerated biofuel production, putting upward pressure on food commodities used as feedstocks. In the EU, 39‑44% of biodiesel and in the US 70‑80% comes from crops such as vegetable oil, corn...
Wavelength Podcast: Tanker Market Insights as Gulf Conflict Continues and UAE Leaves Opec
The latest Wavelength podcast examines how the tentative Iran‑US/Israeli cease‑fire and ongoing blockades of the Strait of Hormuz are sustaining high tanker‑market rates. Angelica Kemene of Optima Shipping Services discusses the potential shift in crude flows if the United Arab...
UST Auctions Trigger Record MOVE Spike and VIX Surge
The Great MOVE UST Volatility Crash of April 2026: Blue = MOVE; red = VIX; green = Oil Mar 24, 25, 26 = 3 straight ugly UST auctions Mar 26 = MOVE hits 115 (near dysfunctional levels) Mar 27 = MOVE & VIX peak...
Iran Conflict Hobbles Japanese Manufacturers
Japanese manufacturers are feeling the ripple effects of the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict, which has disrupted shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf and heightened insurance premiums for cargo. Companies reliant on components sourced from the Middle East are facing longer lead...
Developing an Africa-Focused Tech Agenda for the United States to Outcompete China
In December 2025 the Atlantic Council convened a high‑level workshop on U.S.–China competition in Africa’s tech ecosystems. The memo highlights Africa’s fast‑growing, youthful market—projected to exceed 2.5 billion people by 2050—and the need for the United States to match China’s tailored,...
Dallas Fed Warns Inflation May Stay Above Target Longer
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan explains her dissent, which objected to suggesting that the next rate move is more likely than not to be a cut: "I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take inflation to return all the...
Weekend Reading and MB Media Appearances
This week’s MacroBusiness roundup highlighted a surge in geopolitical risk as the Iran‑Israel conflict pushed crude oil above $126 a barrel and prompted China to authorize asset seizures linked to U.S. sanctions. In the United States, analysts warned of a...
Oil Market Will Need 2.7 MMbpd Surplus Post‑Hormuz
We're actually really going to *need* a supply glut after this end to fill in the hole left by Hormuz. Minimum 1 billion barrels lost, requires an *annual* surplus of 2.7 MMbpd to recover. And that assumes Hormuz reopens today, which it...
Oil Falls as Iran Proposes Talks but Prices Still Set for Weekly Gains
Oil prices slipped on Friday as Iran submitted a new negotiation proposal to the United States, but the market remains on track for weekly gains. Brent futures fell 0.2% to $110.14 a barrel, while WTI dropped 1.7% to $103.24. Despite...
Manufacturing Surge Reflects Stockpiling, Not Lasting Growth
"The surge in manufacturing activity in April is not the cause for cheer that at first glance it suggests. A key driving force behind the upturn is the need for companies to get ahead of further feared price rises and...
EU Poised to Scrap Turnberry Deal Amid Weak 301 Case
Gives the EU an excuse to tear up Turnberry deal and retaliate in a world where Trump lacks the ability to use IEEPA to raise tariffs on everything overnight. The 301 case against the EU's overcapacity was rather thin -- 1/2
Middle East Fertiliser Crisis Likely to Hit Smaller Bulk Carriers
Yara International’s CEO warned that soaring fertilizer prices and a Gulf shipping bottleneck could trigger a global auction, hitting the poorest nations hardest. Around 300 bulk carriers, primarily 20,000‑65,000 dwt handy‑class vessels, are stranded in the Gulf, holding 1.9 million tonnes of...
Iran Blockade Foreshadows Epic Taiwan Blockade
The blockade of Iran sets the table for the coming blockade of Taiwan. It’s going to be a mess of truly epic proportions.
Export‑Import Gap Surges Post‑COVID, Spike After 2020‑21
The gap between imports and exports actually widened much more in 24 and 25 than during the COVID years. and my argument was in fact that there was an important break in 20-21, tied to the property market...
Global Disruptions to the Pharma Supply Chain: Q&A with Jeff Golfman
Jeff Golfman, founder of Send 123, warned that rising geopolitical tensions—particularly around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—are tightening global pharmaceutical and medical supply chains. Shipping bottlenecks and shrinking capacity are driving up prices and threatening access to critical therapies such...
Japan's FX Trade Slashes Net Debt, Cuts Gross Debt
Alternative framing for Japan's intervention Japan sold $35 billion of dollars bought at around 80 yen the dollar for close to 160 yen, booking a massive profit that reduced Japan's net public debt -- and in the process brough Japan high...
Looser Labour Market Means Milder Inflation Shock, Smaller Policy Response
Yesterday the BoE put out some analysis, basically showing the difference between now and 2022. Because the labour market is not so tight anymore, the shock to inflation should be much less persistent - justifying a smaller monetary response (if...
UAE Increasingly Breaks From OPEC's Leadership, Says Expert
"“It's pretty clear that the UAE has been diverging from OPEC’s leadership for a while now,” Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting and an expert on energy and geopolitics, told The Dispatch." https://t.co/T78DIjRG0W Quoted here along w @Dr_Ulrichsen @gbrew24
Foreign Central Banks Stopped US Treasury Purchases; Domestic Funding Rises
Multiple things are simultaneously true: 1) Foreign public sector (central banks) are not buying US treasuries for over a decade, led by China. 2) Foreign private sector is still buying treasuries. 3) Foreign buying is not keeping up with issuance, so more is...
US Munitions Depleted: Half of Key Systems Exhausted
My take @FortuneMagazine on the depleted US munitions: "In Iran, the US has burned through 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles, 50% of its THAAD interceptors, 50% of its Patriot PAC-3 inventory, and 30% of its Tomahawks." US WEAPONS CUPBOARD = EMPTY https://t.co/M437EG5SfV
China's Zero Tariffs Shift Asian Alliances Amid African US Pressure
China. No tariffs on 53 countries in Asia. While Africa had US tariffs and now faces impact of Trump’s Strait of Hormuz disaster. How will the countries align?
Abnormal Committee Votes May Define Warsh’s Fed Tenure
"“This is not normal [a reaction to the party-line committee vote] is going to be a theme,” Sahm told Fortune. “Frankly, it could be a theme for Warsh’s tenure as Fed chair.” https://t.co/K0UUJy4cAK
U.S. Diesel Demand Remains Robust Despite Iran Conflict
U.S. diesel consumption has been strong so far in 2026 Effects of the Iran War have not materially affected the U.S. economy yet #Diesel #OilMarkets #EnergyIsTheEconomy #IranWar #Macro #Commodities #Demand https://t.co/qQSUV8pEch
ChatGPT Misses Many
I asked ChatGPT to extract all quotes from Kevin Warsh from the transcripts when he was Fed Governor 2006-2011. It only gave me select quotes, here are those from 2007: https://t.co/Ivh7fpN0OA
China’s Growth Defied CCP; Market Capitalism Poised to Win
since 1978, china’s economy grew in spite of the ccp, not because of it. as ai creates new challenges just as their economy slows, their ham fisted approach is likely to cause more harm. this will be another great victory...
Crude Surge Delays Rate Hike Odds Until Mid‑2027
It will take some time before we'll know if there will be second round inflation effects due to the surge in crude prices. Why hike odds aren't higher for '26 but with some delay in mid '27
GCC May Leverage Insecurity for Cheap US Funding
Very much agree and it wouldn't totally surprise me if the GCC countries are trying to play on that insecurity to get a bit of cheap funding from the US ...
Takaichi's Low‑Rate Push Risks JGBs, Only Hikes Cure
Takaichi wants to intervene in markets to mitigate inflation, but keep rates low to support her agenda. JGBs will suffer until she realizes hiking rates is the only way to durably keep inflation in check and support JPY. Bank lending has...
Markets Defy War, Oil Shocks, and Credit Stress
Markets keep rising despite war, oil shocks, and emerging stress in credit. On the latest Last Call, @CultishCreative and I bring together @EpsilonTheory, @jimwpaulsen, @kevinmuir and @spotgamma to break down why—and what it means going forward. https://t.co/X86Sn4xh16
U.S. Treasury Can't Afford Gulf Family Oil Bailouts
The US Treasury is too poor (and has too few reserves) to bailout -- or even provide a swap to -- the very rich Gulf family oil and investment businesses ... With @StephenPaduano https://t.co/Wz3bR4fXlH
Geopolitical Turmoil Directly Raises UK/EU Household Energy Bills
Me in FT today: “Given that around 80 per cent of UK and European energy still comes from fossil fuels and a large share of that is imported, every geopolitical shock becomes a household bill shock.” More below. https://t.co/qH7tYyZDBT
Sweden's Low Inflation Mirrors Sub‑Target Money Growth
Sweden’s inflation is 0.5%/yr. That’s BELOW its 2%/yr target. SE’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.5%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....