Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Africa is emerging as a strategic source of rare earths and critical minerals as the United States seeks alternatives to China-dominated processing. The continent hosts vast deposits, including DRC cobalt, Zimbabwe lithium, and new rare‑earth projects in Namibia, Tanzania, and Botswana. Growing geopolitical tension has heightened the urgency to diversify supply chains for defense and clean‑tech applications. Western investors are intensifying competition with China to secure African mining assets.
Statistics Canada reported Canada's consumer price index increased 1.8% year‑over‑year in February, a slowdown from January’s 2.3% gain. The deceleration was largely driven by the end of the GST/HST temporary break, which pushed restaurant prices higher while gasoline and other...
February closed with broadly positive market momentum, yet returns diverged sharply across asset classes and regions. U.S. equities posted a 2.3% gain, while emerging market indices lagged, delivering negative performance. Commodities rallied, led by oil and copper, whereas fixed‑income remained...
In the sixty weeks since President Trump’s inauguration, long‑standing military and economic alliances that underpinned post‑World War II peace have begun to fray. The author argues that Trump’s fiscal mismanagement, confrontational diplomacy, and overextension of U.S. forces have weakened America’s global...
Rising fuel prices linked to the Hormuz crisis could add $30‑35 billion to global container shipping costs if sustained for a year. Sea‑Intelligence estimates an extra $153‑$178 per TEU, potentially pushing freight rates higher. While direct fuel expenses are significant, analysts...
The Dollar has risen against the G10 (lhs) and against EM (rhs), but - once you factor in that this shock is at least 3 times as big as Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine - it's trading quite soft. We're...
Exante’s weekly macro update warns that a sharp oil price surge, driven by escalating Middle‑East tensions and a US torpedo strike on an Iranian submarine, is pressuring global markets. Brent crude settled at $82.60 and WTI at $74.66, marking weekly...
Chinese trade negotiator Li announced a preliminary consensus with the United States covering tariff extensions, trade mechanisms, and economic concerns. Both sides emphasized stability of tariff levels and raised issues such as Section 301 probes and recent U.S. restrictive measures....
You know how we say in Ukraine: now Trump has to eat the mess pie he was baking for others. You either support alliances, respect your friends and their interests, coordinate with them and thus benefit from partnerships with countries close...
The ongoing Middle East war is creating chokepoints that could restrict the flow of chemicals, equipment and other inputs essential for semiconductor manufacturing. Rising power costs in Taiwan, the hub of advanced chip production, add further pressure on fab operations....
Fed officials were already before divided the Iran war over what to do about rates. Now the conflict threatens to entrench those positions and make it even harder to reach a consensus "Both sides are going to be able to say...
"China Has a Lot to Lose in the U.S.-Israel War on Iran," my latest in @WSJ @WSJopinion The U.S.-Israel war against Iran isn’t only reshaping security and the balance of power in the Middle East. Its stakes are also high...
Former President Donald Trump has largely diverted his attention away from China and President Xi, despite a scheduled meeting later this month. Observers note Trump’s tendency to concentrate on single, transactional issues, leaving broader geopolitical concerns sidelined. The article argues...
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 For three decades, I have advised over 50 Chinese companies and served on Chinese boards. I have watched American, German, and Japanese companies struggle to compete with Chinese imports. What they face is not competition. It is...
The UK Office for National Statistics has refreshed its consumer price basket, adding items such as non‑alcoholic beer, houmous, motorhomes, dashboard cameras and pet‑grooming services. The revision introduces 27 new products and removes 19, keeping the basket at 760 items....
Rising oil prices, up more than 35% since the Iran conflict, are inflating fuel costs for U.S. cruise lines. Carnival Corp stands out as the only major U.S. operator that does not hedge its fuel, exposing it to steep profit...
Falling prices of precious metals are a signal that the dollar is getting stronger overall, even though today the DXY may be down a little. What really matters is the trend and not a day in the life of a...
Rising oil prices sparked by Middle East tensions pushed crude above $100, tightening energy markets and raising electricity costs for data‑center operators. The shock rippled through the semiconductor sector, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF down 3.5% and chip leaders Nvidia...
US equity futures nudged higher on Monday, led by Meta’s rally after the company disclosed sweeping AI‑driven workforce cuts. Meanwhile, crude oil lingered near the $100‑a‑barrel mark as Strait of Hormuz shipments remained disrupted, keeping risk appetite muted. Elevated energy...
President Trump has pressed allies for US warship escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, but Japan and Australia have declined the request. Drone strikes have forced a shutdown of oil loading at Fujairah and disrupted Dubai airport operations, prompting Saudi...
Canada is reshaping its trade policy to cut reliance on the United States, aiming to double non‑U.S. exports by 2035. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s push has unlocked a new C$5 bn Trade Diversification Corridors Fund to upgrade ports, rail and air...
Historic Gold Stretch vs. Crude May Signal Peak - "Unsustainably high" describes the 79 barrels of WTI crude oil equal to an ounce of gold at the end of February. Only the collapse to negative crude prices in April 2020...
In this episode of Prop G Markets Live, Scott Galloway and Ed Elson examine how the ongoing war with Iran is reshaping global financial markets, highlighting disruptions in oil supply, heightened geopolitical risk premiums, and shifting investor sentiment. They also...
The article argues that the United States should stop treating all Chinese capital as a security threat and instead allow limited, well‑structured Chinese investment in non‑sensitive sectors. It cites Trump’s “Made in America” agenda, which welcomes foreign money, and contrasts...
The RENIXX renewable‑energy index climbed 4.9% last week to 1,251 points, driven by soaring oil and gas prices and Middle‑East geopolitical tension. Heavyweight gains came from Ballard Power (+20.1%) after securing a 500‑unit fuel‑cell drive order, while Xpeng, Canadian Solar,...
The article argues that keeping prices stable is a powerful lever for reigniting UK growth because it allows the Bank of England to cut interest rates. Recent government actions, such as energy‑bill relief, have already shaved inflation, and the BoE...
At Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that the post‑Cold‑War rules‑based order is unraveling and outlined a “value‑based realism” strategy focused on sovereign supply chains, AI and critical minerals. He simultaneously affirmed confidence in open capital flows and integrated...
Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed the United States is a net oil exporter, but the reality is more nuanced. While the U.S. does export more crude oil and petroleum products than it imports, it remains a net importer of crude...
Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe warned that soaring global crude prices—now above $100 a barrel—expose South Africa’s reliance on imported fuel and urged a rapid acceleration of domestic oil and gas development. He highlighted significant offshore prospects in...
After 25 years of negotiations, the EU‑Mercosur free‑trade agreement is set to be provisionally applied within weeks, following a rare EU signing without France’s formal approval. The deal reduces tariffs on a range of agricultural products while retaining quotas for...
The episode focuses on the U.S. effort to keep the Strait of Hormuz open amid rising energy tensions, detailing President Trump's appeal to allies—including China, NATO members, Japan, and Australia—for naval support, and highlighting European hesitancy due to limited resources...
As the decline in the stock market gets more broad-based, people will wake up to the idea that it is really a bear market. The same is true at a country level. As more countries outside the US join the...
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on the GLOBAL IMPACT of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ: "You’ve now closed off 20% of the world’s oil supply, 25% of the world’s liquid natural gas, and 35% of the world’s urea... There's going to be...
National average of gas prices is up 73 cents since the war started 15 days ago (middle panel), or 25% (bottom panel). https://t.co/NhhuStQnOD
(Premium) "The Lyons Share Weekly Macro Market-3/16/2026" is up: https://t.co/z9lrJd3OYf… Includes our short & intermediate-term outlook & portfolio allocation, analysis/key levels on the 50 most important charts in the world plus rankings of the top 1000 ETF's
The Fed should not even think about cutting rates again until the 12% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having an inflation target if you're not going to adhere...
This is 100% completely unsustainable as a society. Nearly 50% of all consumer spending now comes from the top 10% of earners. The bottom 80%? Their share keeps falling. This is why the economy can look strong in the data while millions of people...
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since October 2022, rising 35% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/pOPRl50mmA
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
First fiscal response out the block; tiny mind, but I suspect continental governments will not be far behind, as will the EU. Important for the ECB's reaction function too.
The big mistake the West made in 2022 was to not embargo Russian oil. That would have spiked oil prices further, but Russia's economy would have imploded and it likely wouldn't still be waging war in Ukraine. The lesson for...
Trump Should Be Open to Chinese Investment in U.S. Manufacturing Private Chinese capital is being locked out of mutually beneficial opportunities. https://t.co/gKtY0mscVo
US, China seek to wrap Paris talks on managed trade, agriculture deals for Xi-Trump summit Managed trade, tough sell in many quarters... https://t.co/XXu7CtHIdB
Trump Floats Xi Summit Delay If China Doesn’t Help in Hormuz “Head of state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to China-US relations,” he added, without specifying a timeframe for the leaders’ meeting. https://t.co/2UjmNtyIUW
This is from the end of December. Was this meant to lure Iran into negotiations? ran says $2bn of frozen assets released by neighboring country https://t.co/miz6slNXAM
“Interestingly, any delay in Warsh’s confirmation is a gift to Warsh and a curse for Powell as the Fed now faces the challenge of managing yet another supply side shock with a president that views rate cuts as the answer...
Somewhere in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is rubbing his hands. India is paying ~$99 a barrel for Russian crude Urals (including shipping costs). And since the US eased its sanctions on Russian crude, it's all legal.
April WTI is trading lower as is the US dollar. The market still seems hopeful that exit ramps are found shortly, even though the conflict escalated over the weekend. Many are skeptical of the unexpected gains in PRC data....
There have been two major developments involving India, Russia, and the Iran war being conflated. These are two separate issues altogether. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/SjgRO1nWPF #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/nhLc5LS8wH
I did not say there's nothing we can do to open the Strait of Hormuz. I said there are no policy options that can offset the loss of flow from the Strait of Hormuz.
