Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector are intensifying, combining aggressive enforcement such as tanker seizures with narrowly‑tailored licenses for limited oil and diluent exports. The heightened scrutiny is affecting ocean transportation, with regulators, insurers, and lenders examining vessel movements, charter structures, AIS data, and documentation for any Venezuelan nexus. Underwriters are tightening P&I and cargo coverage, adding sanctions endorsements, higher premiums, and broader exclusions, while banks and ports are pulling back or conditioning engagement. These dynamics are driving freight‑rate volatility, operational disruptions, and increased compliance costs for shippers and service providers.
On one hand, Trump laid out the 21st Century Manhattan project with the Genesis Plan, promising to lead the world in AI- an objectively good thing for America. @DavidSacks On the other hand, he goes into Iran cutting off oil...
President Donald Trump announced that the United States will intensify attacks on Iran for the next week, following a partial 30‑day waiver for Russian oil purchases aimed at easing soaring fuel prices. The statement came as Brent crude hovered around...
Barclays economists now expect the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in September 2024, pushing the next reduction to March 2027. This postpones the earlier June and September 2024 cuts the bank had forecast. Market pricing has collapsed to just 22.5...
Four years after the Ukraine invasion, Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom has turned civil nuclear exports into a robust geopolitical tool. The company now leads global reactor sales, offering VVER‑1200 and VVER‑1000 plants financed up to 90% by Russian state...
As I research and write my upcoming report on "Defense Innovation", global debt levels have been top of mind. Total global debt surged by $28.8 trillion last year, hitting a record $348 trillion. It was the biggest rise in the...
Senior U.S. and Chinese officials convened in Paris to lay groundwork for the upcoming Beijing summit between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump. The talks are expected to focus on procedural issues rather than substantive policy breakthroughs, reflecting both...
The Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center released a new "So What’s the Strategy?" podcast episode featuring former National Security Council chief of staff Alex Gray. Host Matthew Kroenig and Gray dissect Washington’s approach to the ongoing Iran war, referencing the 2020...
Historic shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have halted roughly 20% of global LNG flow, prompting buyers to seek alternatives. The United States, already the world’s largest LNG exporter, is set to nearly double its export capacity by 2031,...
Everyone is talking about the impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz on oil and gas. I haven't seen much discussion of the war's impact on helium. Most people think of helium as being a fun gas you use for...
Mexico's president helped broker the first confirmed talks between the United States and Cuba, with Cuban President Miguel Díaz‑Canel confirming a dialogue aimed at resolving long‑standing bilateral differences. The discussions are in an early phase and follow reports that the Trump...
Ahmed Charai argues that former President Donald Trump’s foreign policy was driven by a coherent strategic logic rather than ad‑hoc decisions. He highlights how the "America First" approach reshaped U.S. engagement in the Middle East, emphasizing energy security, transactional alliances,...
Portugal's consumer price index for a basket of essential foods hit a record €254.12, up €12.30 (5%) from early 2026 and 35% above 2022 levels. DECO says the surge cannot yet be linked to the Iran war, pointing instead to...
Horrible Canadian Jobs Report: 84K Full-Time Jobs Disappear But WAIT This Is Even Worse Than It Seems Ever hear of Stagflation? I have lived through Stagflation & it's a mess Simple concept: Inflation accelerates as an economy withers Central Banks can't help
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
In 1974 Henry Kissinger secured an informal pact that required Saudi Arabia to price oil exclusively in U.S. dollars, creating the petrodollar system that channeled massive dollar surpluses into Treasury securities. The arrangement underpinned America’s ability to run large fiscal deficits...
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
U.S. Section 232 tariffs on aluminum and tinplate steel remain at 50%, despite a Supreme Court ruling that struck down broader trade measures. The Midwest Premium for aluminum broke the $1‑per‑pound barrier in January 2026, pushing input costs for metal‑packaging producers...
Atlantic Council senior fellow Lichfield was quoted in a Bloomberg piece highlighting how governments are insulating their economies from the fallout of the Iran‑Israel conflict. He noted that nations are bolstering strategic petroleum reserves, diversifying supply chains, and employing financial...
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2025 data, showing GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized, well below the 2.2% forecast earlier this year. The downgrade reflects weaker consumer spending, a modest rebound in inflation, and a softening labor market....
The Pentagon has concluded that Iran’s missile arsenal, rather than naval mines, represents the chief danger to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts note that Iran’s short‑ and medium‑range ballistic missiles can reach vessels transiting the narrow waterway,...
U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra warned that the renewal of the USMCA (known as COMSA in Canada) faces increasing political headwinds as the July deadline looms, despite strong backing from the business community on both sides of the border....
U.S. core inflation accelerated to a 3.1% year‑over‑year increase in January 2026, the fastest pace in nearly two years. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the data after a delay caused by the prolonged government shutdown. This measure, the Fed’s...
The United States announced a 30‑day suspension of sanctions on Russian crude that is currently at sea, aiming to cushion the economic repercussions of the war in Iran. The temporary relief covers roughly 100 million barrels of Russian oil in transit,...
UAE minister Lana Nusseibeh warned Iran must stop attacks on Gulf neighbours before any mediation can succeed, tying a diplomatic breakthrough to President Donald Trump’s leadership. She described the Iranian strikes on Dubai airport, hotels and infrastructure as shocking and...
Poland’s inflation outlook has soured as March petrol prices jumped roughly 15%, threatening to push the CPI above the 3% year‑on‑year mark. While core inflation remained modest, the surge in oil and gas prices—driven by the Middle East conflict—creates a...
Four years after Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has withstood Moscow’s destabilisation campaign and moved forward on its EU accession path. The country secured candidate status in 2022 and opened accession negotiations in 2024, while President Maia Sandu won...
Looking ahead to next week - we have a laundry list of central bank rate decisions (almost all holding) with critical forecast updates at a critical time - like the #FOMC SEC. Historically, the 12th week of the year is the...
China says US has no right to define overcapacity MOFCOM: "The world economy has long become an inseparable whole. As production and consumption are global, supply and demand must be matched and adjusted from a global perspective. If each country's...
The US, Japan and the European Union are set to announce plans in the coming weeks to lay the foundation for a trade agreement in critical minerals. Trade agreements, ok, personnel, IP, experience, required... https://t.co/4wQbtrIhCR
Supertankers Build Up in Red Sea as Saudi Arabia Races to Bypass Hormuz. The plan and how much the infrastructure can handle. https://t.co/0tUBLK1icp
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
Fed's in a tough position here. Labor market and economy in general need a bit of TLC but war inflation may be one too many one-time price level increase. Default reaction will be no reaction for now. FOMC...
Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman on the Sanders proposal for a billionaire tax. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/985S5J7cYd
Quick update on tariffs in light of this week’s new USTR announcement of over 76 new Section 301 investigations that will likely result in new tariffs being put back in place on substantially all of US imports that were taken...
🇧🇷Conab made very slight trims to its estimates for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and corn crops. First-crop corn production went up, but that was offset by a reduction to the heavily-exported second crop. Projected soybean exports rose from last month. https://t.co/vXR8g5NOEG
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Everyone wants a Hormuz EZ-Pass but Tehran's primary leverage is keeping the Strait closed to *all* traffic. It's the total supply flow lost—not the destinations— that ultimately matters. And no guarantee that person with whom you're negotiating is controlling the drones. https://t.co/xNoSi9YCh5
The Little Ships of Dunkirk except its small cap investors smuggling oil through the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/grhS8iKYsL
China may benefit from higher oil prices triggered by Iran war China’s evolution into an “electrostate” may help insulate it from spiking oil prices. https://t.co/oCfxauQUQP
CPI at 2.4%. Looks fine. Except $WTI is up 68% YTD and none of it is in the data yet. The Fed is trapped. Cut → inflation explodes. Hold → recession deepens. Goldman pushed cut to September. Futures say December 2027. https://t.co/WFbW5IQa0u
EU floats fix for euro use that’s clouding Montenegro’s membership bid https://t.co/eov27Lw9Rv via @jaskuzmanovic @europressos https://t.co/KoM3j0R4qx
Higher tariffs have LONG been associated with more evasion (fraud, piracy, etc). That's why most fiscal/econ projections of tariff effects (eg, @TaxFoundation) account for some evasion/leakage. No surprise historically high/complex tariffs led to tons of fraud. It's baked in.
Closure of the strait is one of the most obvious possible consequences of conflict with Iran...
"Expectations Worsen After Start of Military Conflict in Iran" - U Mich sentiment survey https://t.co/bJlKLotCQ1
US Treasury Allows More Russian Oil Sales to Help Tame Prices. And Putin is laughing as he heads to the bank and thumbs his nose at sanctions. And has needed revenue for his Ukraine war. https://t.co/zWRhldvD7W
The real problem isn't the overcapacity (really state support for further investment in sectors with overcapacity) 301 against China. It is the overcapacity 301s against everyone else. 1/
This is a critical point -- China's JV requirements worked b/c China had to approve investments (so it had leverage) generally speaking & b/c China had relatively high tariffs (25% on autos) and an undervalued exchange rate so there was a...
Japan taps oil reserves as Iran war spreads. Could it give China leverage? With Tokyo and Beijing still at loggerheads over Taiwan, analysts warn Japan’s decision exposes its economic vulnerability Yet another "Iran war gives Beijing leverage' piece, short answer....no... https://t.co/nx95uxzmnh
