Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Asian Marco Initial Thoughts: Big Data Day and Samsung Earnings Due Shortly. FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged. Mega Names Mixed After...
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% after an 8‑4 vote, marking the third straight meeting of status‑quo. AI‑driven demand propelled equities in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan to fresh record levels, while Samsung’s earnings are due before the Golden Week holidays. The World Gold Council reported a 2% year‑on‑year rise in gold demand, valuing the quarter at $193 billion. Russia announced plans to boost food and fertilizer shipments to the United Arab Emirates, adding another geopolitical thread to the week’s market narrative.
Empty Tankers Are Extending Iran's Ability to Wait Out the U.S. Blockade
Iran is using empty ballast tankers as floating storage to stretch its crude‑export capacity despite the U.S. Navy’s Red Sea blockade. TankerTrackers.com estimates the loitering tonnage could keep shipments flowing until mid‑June, far longer than other analysts who projected late...
Interest Rates Expected to Be Held as Uncertainty over Iran War Continues
The Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% as the Monetary Policy Committee weighs the lingering fallout from the Iran conflict. Inflation remains stubborn at 3.3%, still above the 2% target, prompting a cautious stance....
Up the Escalation Ladder We Go
The United States is reportedly preparing a limited, short‑wave strike against Iran to break the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz, as oil prices rebound. CENTCOM’s plan aims to pressure Tehran back to negotiations, but President Trump has dismissed Iran’s...
Reconfiguring Europe in a Fractured Global Economy: The Florence Report
The Florence Report, the flagship study of the EMU Lab at the European University Institute, warns that Europe’s long‑standing “reduced responsibility model” – reliance on U.S. security, markets and global institutions – has become dysfunctional in a fractured, multipolar world....
Apple Earnings, March PCE, Q1 GDP, Mortgage Rates: What to Watch
Apple reported fiscal Q2 results that topped analyst expectations, buoyed by stronger iPhone sales in China, double‑digit growth in services, and a surprise uptick in Mac shipments. The company also disclosed that CEO Tim Cook will step down in September,...
SPECIAL REPORT: Chaos At The Fed? | Axel Merk
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee left its policy rate unchanged, but a record three members dissented, warning that the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict could reignite inflation and strain supply chains. The vote marked the final meeting chaired by Jerome Powell,...
Carney ‘Strong’ in Year One, Now Must Deliver on Promises in Canada
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first year was defined by a confrontational U.S. trade environment under President Donald Trump, prompting Carney to resist a rushed US‑Canada trade pact and maintain policy independence. He leveraged the tension to reset relations with...
Brazil's Cuts Rate by 25bp to 14.50% but Flags Deanchored Inflation and Middle East Risks
Brazil's monetary policy committee (Copom) unanimously cut the Selic benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 14.50%, matching the majority of economists' expectations. For the second meeting in a row, the board offered no forward guidance, tying any further moves...
AfCFTA Shifts From Treaty Architecture to Operational Trade System Amid Persistent Frictions
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is shifting from a treaty framework to an operational trade system as most member states have ratified the agreement. All 55 AU members except Eritrea have signed, with 49 ratifying, and the pact...
Oil Rallies Toward $120 As Middle East Supply Risks Spiral
Oil prices surged on Wednesday as Brent crude for June delivery rose 6.45% to $118.40 a barrel and WTI jumped 7.20% to $107.10, driven by a tightening U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and the UAE’s announcement that it will leave...
Iran Poised to Become Fourth Global Superpower
"Like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, all of these military victories are mere flesh wounds for the Islamic Republic. The real story is that when the fighting stops, Iran will emerge as the fourth major...
Monetary Policy Must Adapt to AI-Driven Growth
All you need to know about monetary policy in a world of AI-supercharged growth. ⬇️
Powell’s Parting Gift: How One Chair’s Dissents Could Constrain the Next
Jerome Powell, in his final 18 months as Fed chair, deliberately tolerated dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee, shifting decision‑making from a chair‑centric model to a more independent committee. By allowing members to voice opposition, Powell reduced the informal...
Economic Leverage Becomes Weapon Amid Global Instability
✍️ UK Foreign Minister 👉”Instability and volatility are the new normal and countries across the world are increasingly reaching for economic tools to exert global leverage, 💥whether to coerce or constrain. https://t.co/GzEYSjon4v
Powell to Lose QE Chair, Warsh Takes Over
And here is Powell at the press conference: Regime Change: Powell, Chair of Mega-QE & “Ample Reserves Regime,” to Be Replaced by Warsh, who Wants Smaller Balance Sheet But Powell will stay on as governor until “the investigation is well and...
April FOMC: Hawks Push Back As Inflation Risks Rise
The Federal Reserve left its policy range unchanged at 3.50%‑3.75% during the April 2026 FOMC meeting, but three regional presidents formally dissented, flagging concerns over persistent inflation and volatile energy prices. Chair Jerome Powell stressed Fed independence and signaled a...
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady: Here's What that Means for Credit Cards, Mortgages, Car Loans and Savings Rates
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.5%‑3.75% target range, a decision likely made by Chair Jerome Powell in his final meeting. The hold reflects persistent inflation pressures tied to the Iran conflict and limited policy space...
Fed Cuts Raise 30-Year Yield; Inflation Still Looming
The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-year Treasury yield below 4%. They cut rates 175 bps and the 30-year yield is now approaching 5%. The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed....
Stock Investors Fared Very Well Under Powell. Bond Investors, Not so Much
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to depart after eight years, leaving a market record that favors equities. The Dow Jones rose about 9% per year and the S&P 500 surged 14.7% annually, the third‑best performance for a Fed chair...
30‑Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5%, Near 18‑Year
*US 30-YEAR YIELD TOUCHES 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2025 Now just 11 bps from a new 18-year high. https://t.co/Aow1azOUWb
Fertilizer Prices Have Doubled Since the Strait Closed
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Feb. 28 halted half of the world’s fertilizer feedstock shipments, causing fertilizer prices to more than double. Experts say even a cease‑fire won’t quickly restore natural‑gas supplies, so relief could take months or...
Bessent Calls Powell’s Board Stay Fed Norm Violation
Bessent says Powell's decision to stay on at the board is a "violation of all Federal Reserve norms" and an "insult" to Warsh https://t.co/c6R0zLqPNA @nytimes
Economic and Event Calendar in Asia 30 April 2026, China PMIs
The Asian economic calendar for April 30 2026 highlights China’s purchasing‑manager indices. Official PMI data are forecast to decline in April, suggesting a slowdown in overall activity. In contrast, the private manufacturing PMI from Rating Dog is expected to rise, indicating resilience in...
China’s 2‑3‑Month Iranian Crude Buffer Soon Ends
Roughly 155 mb of Iranian crude and condensate already sits outside the Gulf chokepoint, reports @Kpler China has a 2–3 month buffer of Iranian barrels outside the Gulf. After that, supply tightens, prices rise, and margins get squeezed. #OilMarkets #Iran #China #Refining...
Tech Beats Mask Macro Weakness, Markets Still Slide
Tech earnings beat… and stocks still dropped. $META $GOOG $AMZN That tells you everything. Oil at $108 Gas at highs since 2022 Fed divided like we haven’t seen since 1992 This isn’t a “buy the dip” market… it’s a read the macro market. https://t.co/cHKTtu3no5
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
U.S. Treasury yields climbed to 4.42% on Wednesday, driven primarily by heightened geopolitical risk from a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade. The Federal Reserve’s policy announcement added only a marginal uptick, with yields rising one basis point after the meeting....
World War Trade and the Strait of Hormuz
In May 2026, Richard Baldwin highlighted Iran's unprecedented full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first time the vital chokepoint has been shut in modern history. He links the move to the 2025 shift where the United States...
Divided He Falls. But Stays.
The episode reviews the latest surge in oil prices amid a stagnant Gulf crisis and recent statements from Donald Trump, while dissecting the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting where Jerome Powell held rates steady and faced an unprecedented four dissenters, signaling...
Where Is Pakistan Again?
The World Bank reclassified Pakistan from its traditional South‑Asia grouping to a new MENAAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan) region in July 2025. This shift places Pakistan alongside economies facing war‑related slowdowns, dropping its growth outlook from the South...
China Threatens EU over “Buy European” And Cyber Rules
China to EU: We’re going to need you to make substantial changes to your proposed “Buy European” and cybersecurity rules, or else face the consequences. https://t.co/gGBr0Rq5nh
GM Boosts Q1 2026 EBIT by $500 Million on Supreme Court Tariff Refund
General Motors lifted its adjusted EBIT to $4.3 billion and nudged full‑year guidance up $500 million, thanks to a Supreme Court‑mandated tariff refund. The boost came as total revenue slipped $400 million, underscoring the mixed impact of policy, EV restructuring and market dynamics...
US and Latin America Condemn China’s Detention of 70 Panama‑flagged Ships
The United States, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Paraguay and Trinidad and Tobago issued a joint statement on Tuesday condemning China’s “targeted economic pressure” after Beijing detained almost 70 Panama‑flagged ships. The move follows Panama’s Supreme Court annulment of contracts that...
EU and US Sign MoU to Coordinate Critical Minerals Supply Chains
On April 24, 2026, the United States and the European Union formalised a memorandum of understanding covering the entire critical minerals value chain. The pact, signed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, seeks...
Takeaways From Powell’s Final News Conference as Fed Chair.
Jerome Powell concluded his tenure as Federal Reserve chair on May 15, 2026, and announced he will remain on the Board as a governor through January 2028. He pledged a low‑profile presence to facilitate a smooth handoff to incoming chair Kevin M....
Zhejiang's Private Manufacturers See Export Orders Plummet as Profits Slip Below 3%
Private manufacturers in Zhejiang province are grappling with a sharp drop in export orders, pushing profit margins below 3% and forcing factories to slash staff. Insiders also allege that official export growth figures are inflated, highlighting deeper structural strains in...
ANALYSIS: Fed Hold Keeps Markets Anchored as Rate-Cut Timeline Slips
The Federal Reserve left its policy range unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75%, cementing a "higher for longer" stance despite inflation still above target and heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict. The vote revealed four dissenting governors—the most opposition since 1992—signaling deep...
India’s M&A Boom Persists in 2026, Driven by Investor Confidence
India’s merger‑and‑acquisition market remained robust throughout 2026, with inbound capital from the United States and the Middle East offsetting global headwinds. Stability in policy and a growing appetite for warranty‑and‑indemnity insurance are helping the country outpace other emerging economies.
Markets Are Mixed Amid Fed Uncertainty: Stock Market Today
The Fed’s FOMC voted 8‑4 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5‑3.75%, citing elevated inflation driven by higher global energy prices. Stocks slipped, with the Dow down 0.6% and the S&P 500 flat, while the Nasdaq edged higher as...
Mortgage Rates Surge Higher as US Considers a Longer Blockade
Mortgage rates jumped to a 30‑year fixed average of 6.50%, the highest since March 30, after a rapid surge driven primarily by geopolitical tension over a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade. The blockade fears lifted oil prices and Treasury yields,...
Oil Jumps to Highest Level Since June 2022 as War Continues
Oil prices surged to their highest level since June 2022 as the U.S.-Iran conflict and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz tightened global supply. Brent crude rose above $119.50 a barrel before settling near $118, while WTI hovered just...
Bank of Jamaica Projects Inflation Up to 7.5% as Rate Holds at 5.5%
Bank of Jamaica policymakers warned that headline inflation could average between 6.0% and 7.5% over the next two years, while leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.50%. The outlook reflects sharp commodity price spikes and a fragile tourism sector,...
Australia's Diesel Crisis Deepens as Middle East Conflict Slashes Supplies
Australia is confronting a severe diesel shortage as prices soar to $2.75‑$3.12 per litre and national reserves dip amid Middle‑East supply disruptions. The government has activated emergency stockpiles, secured 200 million litres of overseas diesel and floated a $10 bn refinery proposal...
Fed Leaves Rate Unchanged During Powell’s Final Meeting as Chair
The Federal Reserve left its target federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% during Chairman Jerome Powell’s final FOMC meeting, despite dissent from Governor Stephen Miran and three regional presidents. Recent data show a resilient labor market, a modest rise in...
Explaining Powell Critique Live with Jack Farley, Max Wiethe
I will be on with @JackFarley96 and @maxwiethe in about 15 minutes. And for those torching me on my Powell takes, I will explain further. (For everyone else, Powell is making a terrible mistake by staying.)
UAE to Leave OPEC+, Cutting 13% of Cartel Capacity and Shaking Oil Markets
The United Arab Emirates announced it will withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, ending nearly six decades of membership and removing roughly 13% of the cartel’s production capacity. The exit gives Abu Dhabi freedom to lift its output beyond...
Sanctions Backfire: Expert Confirms They're Ineffective
My friend and renowned oil expert, Javier Blas, NAILS IT. Just like I’ve always said, sanctions rarely work. They almost always BACKFIRE. https://t.co/JcwVpQy4zO
Mondelēz CEO Says Iran War Could Further Erode Consumer Confidence
Mondelēz International’s CEO Dirk Van de Put warned that the ongoing war in Iran could further erode already weak U.S. consumer confidence, adding pressure to affordability and job‑security concerns. He noted that lower‑income shoppers are becoming more price‑sensitive, driving a...
Brent Crude Breaks the Iran War Highs
Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel on Thursday as geopolitical tension over Iran escalated. A Politico report revealed the White House convened with major oil executives to discuss measures to curb price spikes if the U.S. maintains its blockade...
Wednesday - April 29, 2026
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host Brian Seitel reviews a mixed market day marked by a dip in major indices, rising bond yields, and a surge in oil prices driven by Middle East tensions and the UAE’s exit...