Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Azerbaijan Opposition Leader Urges West to Leverage Energy Ties Amid Crackdown
Ali Karimli, the jailed leader of Azerbaijan’s opposition, appealed to Western trading partners, especially the UK, to press Baku over its political repression. He warned that the regime’s crackdown threatens the country’s energy‑rich economy, which supplies roughly half of its GDP through oil and gas exports.
Bond Traders Focus on Treasury's 3‑Month Funding Plan, Fed Speeches and May Jobs Data
U.S. bond traders are concentrating on the Treasury Department’s upcoming three‑month borrowing plan, a series of Federal Reserve speeches and the May jobs report, with yields near the top of their recent range. The market’s focus reflects concerns over inflation,...
Treasury Blockade on Iran Pushes Brent Crude Over $120, Saps U.S. Market Gains
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expanded economic blockade on Iran, a move that lifted Brent crude to roughly $120 per barrel. The surge in oil prices weighed on U.S. energy stocks and pulled broader market sentiment lower, underscoring...
US Tech Can Use China as ‘Listening Post’ for Global Edge, Washington Think Tank Explains
The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) released a report urging U.S. technology companies to remain active in China despite political pressure. It cites 1,950 American firms with Chinese affiliates in 2023, including Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Tesla, and argues...
Powering Data Centers in Emerging Markets
Artificial intelligence and cloud growth will push global data‑center electricity use past 945 TWh by 2030, prompting developers to look beyond saturated hubs in the U.S., Europe and East Asia. Emerging regions such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America,...
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Economic Activity in India
The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index for India, built from newspaper mentions of policy‑related risk, shows a clear negative relationship with key macro variables. Higher EPU values coincide with slower growth in private consumption, gross fixed capital formation, and overall...
Decisions Taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in Addition to Decisions Setting Interest Rates)
On 4 May 2026 the European Central Bank Governing Council released its 2025 Annual Report and enacted a suite of policy updates. It simplified excess‑reserve remuneration by aligning it with the deposit‑facility rate effective 17 June 2026, and approved a comprehensive payments strategy to...
Debunked Strike, Real War Risk: Dollar Rallies on Panic Hedge as Hormuz Tensions Rise
A false headline claiming Iranian missiles struck a U.S. Navy ship near the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude to about $110 per barrel and triggered a rapid rush into the dollar as a panic hedge. U.S. Central Command quickly...
Yen Surges to the High 155-Range Against Dollar in Thin Holiday Trading
The Japanese yen surged to the high‑155 per‑dollar range on Monday, its strongest level since the previous Friday. The rally followed a period where the currency was trading near ¥157.20 to the dollar. The move unfolded during a thin holiday‑trading...
Australia and Japan Expand Ties with Focus on Economic Security
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged on May 4, 2026 to deepen cooperation on economic security. The bilateral agenda centers on building resilient supply chains for energy, critical minerals, food and manufactured goods. Both governments cited...
Qatar Extends Force Majeure on LNG Supply Through Mid-June
QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure on its LNG deliveries until mid‑June because the Strait of Hormuz remains almost entirely closed to tanker traffic. The suspension follows earlier force majeure notices issued after the Iran‑Israel conflict escalated in February and...
What China’s AI Push Can Teach Africa About the Future of Labor
China’s 2026 Two Sessions outlined an "intelligent economy" that blends AI, robotics, and green energy while targeting 4.5‑5% growth and 12 million new urban jobs. The government acknowledges AI will both displace and create work, noting a mismatch where factories lack...
‘Golden Week’: Hong Kong Draws More Mainland Chinese Visitors but Spending Uneven
During the first three days of Hong Kong’s Labour Day “Golden Week,” mainland Chinese arrivals rose 4.8 % to 714,765, bringing total visitor numbers to 854,929. Hotel occupancy is expected to approach 90 % thanks to flexible travel patterns and high‑speed rail...
UK Seeks Access to EU’s €5B Tech Scale-Up Fund
The European Union and the United Kingdom will begin negotiations to let Britain tap a new €5 billion ($5.4 billion) tech‑scale‑up fund. The fund, part of Horizon Europe, is designed for late‑stage equity investments that exceed the €30 million cap of earlier programs....
Avoid Repeating 2022 Russia Mistakes Amid US Blockade
Pushback to the US blockade reminds me of the joke where an Irish farmer is asked for directions to Dublin. He says: "I wouldn't start from here." We are where we are. Better to learn from the mistakes we made...
Current Price of Oil as of May 4, 2026
Oil prices rose to $115.01 per barrel for Brent crude on May 4, 2026, a $3.81 increase from the previous day and roughly a 92% jump from a year ago. The gain follows a month‑over‑month rise and reflects ongoing supply‑demand dynamics...
/file/attachments/orphans/13942738_365687.jpg)
PUMP PAIN: SA Petrol Price to Surge 14% to Almost Record High on Wednesday
South Africa will see petrol prices jump 14% on 6 May, with the pump price rising R3.27 per litre (about $0.17) to R26.52/L (~$1.40). Diesel will increase R6.19/L (~$0.33) to R32.09/L (~$1.69), reflecting a Brent crude surge to $101 a barrel....
EU Countries Push to Settle US Trade Deal to Avoid Car Tariff Hike
The United States has warned it will impose a 25% tariff on European cars and trucks unless the EU quickly fulfills its side of a trade agreement signed last year. EU diplomats say member states are pushing for swift ratification...
US Commerce Targets Three Mills in 2025 Review of Softwood Duties
The U.S. Department of Commerce has opened its 2025 antidumping review of three Canadian softwood producers—Manitoba Ltd, Woodstock Forest Products (CWP‑Montreal) and Norsask Forest Products—covering all U.S. shipments for the calendar year. Parallel reviews were also launched for uncoated paper...
Fed Claims Shrinkage, but Balance Sheet Expands Again
Warsh, Miran and Bessent say they want to shrink the Fed's footprint. But the Fed's balance sheet started growing again in December. Reserve Management Purchases of 40B/month are de facto QE. And they're using the same ATI playbook they criticized Yellen...
ECB Inflation Survey Points to Sharp Surge in Prices
The European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters shows inflation expectations jumping to 2.7% in 2024, up from 1.8% previously, driven by higher energy prices. Growth forecasts were trimmed to 1% for 2026. Forecasters anticipate inflation easing to 2.1% in...
Reshoring: Despite Investments, Tariffs Imports Still Rise
According to Kearney’s 2026 Reshoring Index, U.S. imports of manufactured goods from Asian low‑cost countries rose to a four‑year high despite record investment and tariff measures. Direct imports from mainland China fell below 10% of total, losing $135 billion, while the...
‘Made in Europe’ Law Sets Stage for an Economic Showdown with China
The European Union is advancing a “Made in Europe” Industrial Accelerator Act to shield its industries from Chinese competition, following the imposition of up to 35.3% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Beijing condemns the legislation as discriminatory, citing foreign‑investor, local‑content,...
Luis De Guindos: Presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2025 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the...
Luis de Guindos, the ECB Vice‑President, presented the 2025 Annual Report to the European Parliament, noting his mandate ends later this month. The report shows euro‑area GDP grew 1.4% while inflation averaged 2.1%, prompting a 100‑basis‑point cut to the deposit‑facility rate,...
Crude Futures Rise on Reported US Vessel Attack: Update
Front‑month Brent futures surged more than $5 a barrel, hitting $114.30 after unverified reports that a U.S. Navy frigate was struck by missiles near Iran’s Jask island in the Strait of Hormuz. The price jump represented a 5.7% rise from...
Personal Economic Turmoil Shapes Our Risk Appetite
What is "the experience effect"? Prof. @umalmend of University of California, Berkeley has shown that the economic conditions we experience (say, a stock market crash or period of hyperinflation) leave a lasting impact on our appetite for risk. Rather...
Factory Sector Purchasing Manager Surveys Upstaged By Fresh Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz
World oil prices jumped at the start of the tenth week of the Middle East conflict after Iran reportedly fired on U.S. escort vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude rose to about $105.55 a barrel (+3.6%) and Brent...
The Geopolitical Battle Over Monetary Infrastructure
The United States has publicly warned Brazil over its instant‑payment system Pix, viewing the platform as a challenge to traditional monetary sovereignty. The article argues that control of payment rails—ranging from retail‑level instant transfers to wholesale central‑bank digital currencies—has become...
The Iran War Approaches a Tipping Point
Peter Zeihan warns that Iran's oil storage, estimated at 30‑35 million barrels, is set to hit capacity by week’s end, forcing the country to shut in wells. The forced shutdown threatens permanent damage to Iran’s production capacity and long‑term revenue. As...
The Single Best Industrial Trade I’ve Found Since FIX — And Wall Street Hasn’t Caught On Yet
A German conglomerate’s shutdown of two grain‑oriented electrical steel (GOES) plants has exposed a global supply bottleneck that now hinges on a single U.S. producer. U.S. transformer demand has surged 116% since 2019, fueled by AI data centers, reshoring, and...
EU Delists Tajik Banks as Kyrgyzstan Feels the Heat
On April 23 the EU removed three Tajik banks—Spitamen Bank, Dushanbe City Bank and Commercebank of Tajikistan—from its sanctions list after Tajik authorities pledged tighter anti‑money‑laundering controls. The same 20th sanctions package simultaneously barred two Kyrgyz banks, Keremet Bank and Capital...
US Denies Iran Hit Frigate as Oil Prices Surge
🚨US denies Iranian claim that it hit American warship trying to enter Strait of Hormuz 🚨Two missiles hit a US frigate in the Strait of Hormuz after it ignored warnings from Iran’s navy to halt, state media quote the army as...
China’s Unprecedented Defiance of U.S. Sanctions Triggers Showdown
China has ordered its firms to ignore U.S. sanctions on private refiners tied to Iran’s oil trade, marking an unprecedented defiant stance ahead of the Trump‑Xi summit. The directive specifically targets companies like Hengli Petrochemical’s Dalian refinery, which was sanctioned...
Piero Cipollone: Digital Assets, Payment Efficiency and Monetary Policy
In a May 4, 2026 speech, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone outlined how tokenisation and distributed‑ledger technology could reshape payments, but only if central banks provide a risk‑free digital settlement layer. He announced the Eurosystem’s Pontes project, which will...
European Carmakers Slam on the Brakes After Trump Tariff Shock
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on European‑made cars, sending shares of major automakers sharply lower on Monday. Volkswagen disclosed a €4 billion (≈$4.3 billion) annual hit already materialising, while its Q1 revenue fell 2% and earnings missed forecasts. Porsche,...
Taiwan's Manufacturing Activity Improves in April
Taiwan's manufacturing PMI rose to 60.3 in April, marking the seventh straight month of expansion, buoyed by strong global demand for semiconductors and AI‑related devices. The service sector’s non‑manufacturing index also climbed to 58.3, extending a 14‑month growth streak. All...
Talk Your Book: Animal Spirits Live with F/M Investments
F/m’s new Compounder ETF series targets after‑tax investors by deferring income, cutting dividend tax drag, and offering higher after‑tax yields. The firm highlights hidden costs in traditional dividend reinvestment programs, advocating market‑order purchases to preserve returns. It contrasts the liquidity...
US-China Trade
Presidents Trump and Xi meet next week in Beijing. In preparation for that meeting, I visited the largest container port in North America, to get a status update on US exports to China. I also learned about the impact of...
India Accelerates Trade Liberalization with New FTAs and Tariff Cuts
"India this week signed the latest in what’s been a run of rapid-fire free trade agreements.... India also has unilaterally cut tariffs on some key inputs and rolled back QCOs in sectors including steel, textiles and chemicals." https://t.co/AVxgDPYywi https://t.co/oZpPAr08RK
Gold, Silver Rates Today Nosedive up to 5% as Crude Oil Price Soars After Escalation in the US-Iran War
Gold and silver prices plunged on May 4, 2026 as crude oil rallied over 5% following a reported missile exchange between Iran and a U.S. warship. COMEX gold slipped to about $4,535 an ounce, a 2.3% intraday loss, while silver...
Morning Hormuz Updates Require Coffee First
every morning we wake up and check the latest news from the Strait of Hormuz best not to attempt this feat before you've had your first coffee https://t.co/QUiFormLeI
US Blockade Proves More Theater Than Effective Operation
The US blockade is a sieve. Another Iranian tanker has gotten through If it were one, it would be noise But it seems to be more the signal The blockade is serious theater but not a serious operation https://t.co/Tt24Zz0DYp
The Cycle Is the Risk. The Balance Sheet Is the Answer.
Fixed Income Beacon’s May 1 brief spotlights a large homebuilder whose recent rating downgrade and soft earnings have rattled the market, yet its senior bond trades near par with a yield above 7%. The analysis reveals billions in tangible assets and...
Seaborne Trade Routes Lengthen 10% Amid Geopolitical Turmoil
Average distance of global seaborne trade has increased by 10% during the disruptive 2020s. War and geopolitics. And as the supply of maritime bunker fuel is challenged by what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/DzfGZ69ZAF
Fed Chair Challenges, Oil Surge Test Market Resilience
New pod in your feed this morning with @GuyAdami and @dmoses34 🎙️ 🏦 Future Fed Chair Warsh Challenges 🛢️ Surging Crude, Market Resilience 💹 Rising Global Yield Concerns Watch or listen now⤵️ YouTube: https://t.co/ZT50SGUH88 Apple: https://t.co/tStqaQZbnk Spotify: https://t.co/Iwwx4CEeL8
The Daily Feather — Goodbye, Yellow Bus in The Sky
Spirit Airlines announced the end of its 33‑year operation after Flight 1833 landed at Dallas‑Fort Worth, marking the closure of a low‑cost carrier that once served millions of passengers. The airline will retire a fleet of roughly 150 aircraft, removing about 5 million...
Japan's Debt, Not FX Intervention, Drives Yen Rise
After last week's intervention, $/JPY is climbing back towards 160, which repeats the pattern we saw in 2024 and earlier this year. Intervention is just treating the symptom. Japan's mountain of high public debt is the cause. That's what needs...
War Continues, Rate Cuts Unlikely; Hike Probability Rises
No rate cuts while the war is ongoing; there's a higher chance of a hike if this persists.
Half of Dollar’s Value Vanished: Invest, Don’t Hoard Cash
Over the past 30 years, the U.S. dollar lost 53% of its purchasing power. That’s the hidden cost of sitting in cash due to inflation. Keep what you need for an emergency in cash and invest the rest. https://t.co/WAUUt2KTKQ
US Tariffs Cripple German, Italian Auto Exports, Sweden Holds
The threat of higher US tariffs on imports of vehicles from the EU hits Germany (blue) and Italy (purple) hard. Both have already seen the US fall sharply as an export market since the start of 2025. Others, including Sweden...