Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
The episode examines how recent geopolitical tensions are driving a fresh surge in energy prices, with the US and allies pledging to boost supply while Qatar reports that 17% of its gas output has been knocked offline by airstrikes, potentially for years. Hosts Elena Casas and Peter Devlin explain that physical oil and refined product prices are already far above Brent futures, highlighting the risk of a prolonged supply crunch that could push crude to $150 a barrel. They also connect the energy shock to a rapid repricing of European central bank policy, as markets now expect multiple rate hikes from the Bank of England and the ECB, triggering a sell‑off in sovereign bonds. The discussion underscores the broader economic fallout for Europe and Asia, where fuel shortages and soaring gas costs threaten inflation and growth.
At the WTO ministerial in Yaounde, trade ministers could not agree on a reform roadmap, prompting the European Union to consider a parallel track with CPTPP members. Swedish Trade Minister Benjamin Dousa warned that failure would drive the EU toward...
Seven months after the historic Alaska summit, the United States issued a 30‑day waiver permitting limited sales of sanctioned Russian crude, a move aimed at offsetting oil shortages caused by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The waiver signals...
The Trump administration is reportedly weighing a plan to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil export hub, in order to pressure Tehran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal, cited by Axios from four informed...
Muqtedar Khan challenges Shashi Tharoor’s defence of India’s diplomatic silence on the West Asian war, arguing that quietism erodes India’s credibility and strategic autonomy. He cites past instances where silence cost India, from the 1956 Hungary crisis to recent maritime...
Chinese Vice President Han Zheng will travel to Kenya, South Africa and Seychelles from March 22 to 30, at the invitation of Kenya Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and his counterparts. The high‑level tour is framed as a key exchange to...
The UN Security Council issued a resolution condemning Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, labeling them a breach of international law. The article argues the vote is one‑sided, focusing on protecting Gulf oil flows and...
China Railway reported a 25% year‑on‑year increase in TEU volume on the China‑Europe rail corridor during January‑February 2026, moving 352,100 TEU across 3,501 train trips. Train frequency rose 31.7% compared with the same period last year, reversing a 2025 decline...
In 2025 the United States imposed sweeping import tariffs intended to shield domestic producers. The measures inadvertently lowered costs for foreign rivals, creating a mixed‑bag of winners and losers among U.S. firms. Small businesses, often highlighted in political rhetoric, bore...
In this episode of At Any Rate, JP Morgan’s global rate strategy team breaks down recent dynamics in developed‑market (DM) swap spreads, highlighting how central‑bank policy expectations and technical factors drive the curves across the US, Germany, the UK, Japan and...
And the sell side rolls in. April is punchy; I doubt they will see anything in the March HICP that scares them relative to the baseline. But the message is clear. Unless growth collapses they will hike, I think justifying...
Really recommend this interview between @freddiesayers and energy expert @HelenHet20 where Helen lays out why markets may be wrong in assuming things will return to normal once Iran is neutralised. The chaos may be the strategy. And whichever way you...
Japan and the United States announced a $73 billion Japanese investment in U.S. energy infrastructure, including up to $40 billion for small modular reactors (SMRs) built by GE Vernova Hitachi in Tennessee and Alabama. Additional natural‑gas generation projects in Pennsylvania ($17 billion) and Texas ($16 billion)...
The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18, marking a third consecutive hold. Inflation slowed to 1.8% in February, still under the 2% target, while the labour market remains weak. The decision reflects caution amid...
UK government borrowing surged to £14.3 bn in February, the second‑largest monthly deficit on record. The rise exceeded economists' forecasts of £8.8 bn, driven by higher spending that outstripped an increase in tax receipts, including debt‑interest costs. The Office for National Statistics...
UK gilt yields surged to just under 5%, the highest level since 2008, as markets price in expectations of Bank of England rate hikes. Unilever entered talks to sell its foods business to McCormick, while discount retailer The Works saw...
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged governments, businesses and households to adopt demand‑side measures such as working from home, lowering highway speed limits and avoiding air travel to cushion consumers from soaring oil prices triggered by the US‑Israel war...
Iranian attacks crippled 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, forcing QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on long‑term contracts for up to five years. South Korea, the world’s third‑largest LNG importer, downplays supply risks, noting its Qatari share is only about...
The article outlines how the ongoing Middle East conflict is already rippling through the Canadian economy, pushing gasoline and grocery prices higher, unsettling stock markets, and keeping mortgage rates elevated. It highlights broader effects such as tighter job security, more...
European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that the ECB could be forced to raise interest rates as early as April if inflationary pressures intensify, particularly due to the ongoing Iran war. He indicated that a deteriorating medium‑term...
Researchers Batuhan Koyuncu, Byeungchun Kwon, Marco Jacopo Lombardi, Fernando Perez‑Cruz and Hyun Song Shin unveiled BISTRO, a transformer‑based model designed to forecast macroeconomic time series. Trained on the Bank for International Settlements' extensive macro data, BISTRO acts like a ChatGPT...
Singapore’s 2026 budget projects a modest SG$4 billion surplus, continuing the fiscal upside that began with a SG$10.5 billion surplus in 2025 after revenue rose 13 percent year‑over‑year. The government earmarked $6 billion each for Changi Airport’s expansion and the National Productivity Fund, which...
The Glossy Podcast featured ArentFox Schiff partner Angela Santos discussing the fallout from the Supreme Court’s February 2026 decision that struck down IEEPA‑based tariffs. The ruling sparked an immediate rollout of new tariff regimes, leaving fashion importers uncertain about refund timelines....
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced that the nation has roughly 100 days of oil reserves remaining. The government has reduced oil exports to Laos and Myanmar by 25% and 20% respectively, citing the war in the Middle East. Officials...
In the latest MacroBusiness podcast, Nucleus Wealth CIO Damien Klassen dissected the fallout from the Iran‑Israel conflict and its ripple effects on global markets. He highlighted how surging oil prices, supply‑chain bottlenecks and heightened geopolitical risk are reshaping investor sentiment....
Asia mixed; oil volatility and Fed caution weigh, China holds LPR. Oil spike raises inflation/Strait-of-Hormuz supply risk; Alibaba weakens sentiment. Trade: hedge Asian equities with oil puts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
U.S. sovereign debt surged to $39 trillion, a level analysts deem alarmingly unsustainable, as war‑related spending on Iran adds pressure. The debt rose $2 trillion in just a few months, with Biden’s administration issuing $4.7 trillion of new 10‑year debt since 2021. Experts...
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +68.00 (0.29%) 23,188.00 DowJones -203.72 (-0.44%) 46,021.43 Nasdaq -61.73 (-0.28%) 22,090.69 India Vix +4.1125 (+21.97%) 22.8350 S&P 500 -18.21 (-0.27%) 6,606.49
China holds LPR 1y 3.00% /5y 3.50% for 10th month. PBOC uses liquidity ops and fiscal support; growth soft, yuan pressured. Risk: weak domestic demand. Trade: avoid long-duration China bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
India’s commerce ministry has launched a comprehensive audit of critical supply chains in pharma, textiles and fertilizers as the West Asia war threatens global trade. A detailed questionnaire asks firms to disclose import dependence, source countries and the substitutability of...
Subtle but important point. The ECB's baseline incorporates nearly two rate hikes. The adverse and severe scenarios use the same assumptions, and thus may require more than two hikes to bring inflation back to target. Only makes things sligthly less...
JPM woke up this Friday morning and chose violence ... looking for back-to-back hikes from both the ECB and BOE.
Central‑bank digital currency (CBDC) could remain neutral for banks if the central bank recycles CBDC balances back to them at rates equal to deposit‑funding costs, preserving credit creation and profit margins. Deposits, however, are hybrid instruments that provide money‑like services...
US government policy helps Chinese state owned oil companies buy sanctioned Russian crude wasn't on my prediction list for this year. https://t.co/JFPLk4VSxF
EU leaders confront multi-year energy squeeze after Qatar hit https://t.co/VJQeTgB0l1 via @johnainger @E_Krukowska @donatopmancini https://t.co/Res6oTlW0s
European executives surveyed by The Conference Board anticipate that the ongoing Middle East conflict will exacerbate macro‑economic instability, drive higher energy costs, and cause logistics disruptions over the next six months. The poll identified these three factors as the most...
Chaos unleashed by Trump has Europeans building bridges with China https://t.co/pFSYzBf1W0 via @jendeben @ArneDelfs https://t.co/jlniO6pJgx
The global energy crisis will drag on even if the Iran war ends tomorrow: Energy Outlook Advisors https://t.co/xPMnRiP3fO
The Argus roundup highlights how the escalating US‑Iran conflict is reshaping energy markets. The International Energy Agency is boosting oil stock releases, while a temporary Jones Act waiver is prompting US crude cargoes to sail under foreign flags. WTI premiums...
The People’s Bank of China added another ton of gold to its war chest in February. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/NQFzVWhA4P
How is this new, @zriboua? The “China collapse” call has been made for decades Mostly because it doesn’t fit Western models. Yet it hasn’t broken. Maybe the model is wrong, not China. #China #Economics #Macro #Geopolitics #Trade
The Australian government is weighing a windfall tax on gas company profits, with Treasury conducting modelling ahead of the May 2026 budget. Finance Minister Jim Chalmers will ultimately decide whether to introduce the levy. Meanwhile, Energy Minister Katy Bowen says her...
Bessent's suggestion to lift sanctions on Iranian oil is INSANE Congressman Scott Perry explains that the world gets the oil but Iran won't get paid b/c it's outside the global financial system now He's clinically INSANE #Oil #Iran #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Markets
Iran won’t fold & Israel won’t stop, writes @gbrew24 Gulf security is damaged, possibly permanently. There’s no organic off-ramp—only a political one, and it runs through Washington. #IranWar #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #SystemicRisk #MiddleEast https://t.co/egfbcSbtHj
President Donald Trump’s team is scrambling for measures to curb soaring crude prices as the Iran‑Israel war enters its third week. Options on the table include a U.S. Navy escort for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and a rapid...
“Japan’s bid to build a “de-Chinafied” rare earth supply system – with Australia and Brazil on-board” https://t.co/LpDn23sEHq
With global energy prices going vertical, the next metrics to watch are recession probabilities of net energy importers - particularly in South and Southeast Asia https://t.co/ehwgNBNqH4
Russia is leveraging a U.S. waiver and global oil shortages to boost its crude and product exports. Seaborne product shipments jumped 25% to 2.6 million barrels per day, while crude exports rose about 10% in March. Production gaps caused by OPEC‑plus...
“Get long and buckle up,” says Jeff Currie. It took -$37 to clear oversupply during Covid Currie's "mirror image" approach indicates it may take $175 BRENT TO CLEAR THIS SHORTAGE That’s not volatility—that’s a regime shift #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis #Commodities #Macro #Supercycle
Markets still think this snaps back. It won’t, writes @elerianm This isn’t “transitory” It’s multiple equilibria, where each shock creates a new, worse baseline. #Macro #EnergyCrisis #SystemicRisk #Markets #Oil #Geopolitics
