Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
President Trump ordered a precision strike against Iranian facilities believed to be supplying drones and missiles to Russia. The attack destroyed key stockpiles in Syria, cutting off a significant portion of Tehran’s arms flow to Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. Analysts say the disruption will hamper Russia’s ability to conduct aerial assaults and could force a tactical recalibration on the Eastern Front. The move also signals heightened U.S. willingness to confront Iran’s support for the conflict.
The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and...
Cosco Shipping warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East will heighten volatility across global supply chains and speed up regionalization and nearshoring trends in 2026. The liner‑shipping and terminal operator highlighted weak macro‑economic momentum and a severe external...
Myroslava Gongadze wrote in Ukrainska Pravda that Europe is effectively at war, citing the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and its spill‑over risks. She referenced a warning from the Friends of Europe think‑tank that the continent faces escalating security threats...
We are in the midst of a hot war in the Middle East, with Oil prices kissing $120, a cooling (pre-war) labor market, and the odds of a recession ticking up from modest levels. And despite all of this geopolitical economic...
U.S. regular gasoline prices jumped nearly 90 cents to about $3.80 per gallon, while diesel rose $1.40 to just over $5, according to AAA data. The surge could cost the average household more than $600 in extra fuel expenses this...
U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to the White House, praising Japan for “stepping up” on Iran while contrasting it with NATO’s lukewarm stance. The discussion focused on securing the Strait of Hormuz, expanding energy cooperation,...
I'd say a 6.50% 30-year fixed seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. When not if... That'd be the first time rates were that high since last summer. Pretty sure the housing market can't handle a return to 7%, not...
Energy insecurity starts here. Fossil fuels are traded through systems where price is influenced not only by supply and demand, but by conflict, sanctions, and speculation. That means households and utilities can face higher costs even when local production remains...
Cold‑chain carriers are forced to pause reefer movements to the Middle East after the war erupted on Feb. 28, leaving containers stranded at ports outside the Persian Gulf. Ocean carriers have suspended acceptance of refrigerated, dangerous and special cargo in the...
Gold prices plunged to $4,508 per ounce, a sharp drop from the $5,311 close on March 2, even as geopolitical tensions and U.S. budget deficits rise. The decline coincided with Pentagon officials confirming a potential $200 billion supplemental request for the Iran‑related...
The World Trade Organization warned that the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could further depress global trade in 2026. WTO forecasts goods trade growth at just 1.9%, a sharp decline from the 4.6% expected in 2025. Elevated crude oil and...
Bank of Canada won’t be cutting rates anytime soon. Inflation is rising because of the war 🇮🇷
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
A presidential tax reform commission in Tanzania presented a sweeping overhaul after a 17‑month delay, warning that the current tax system is eroding public trust. The nine‑member panel delivered 284 recommendations, including a formal National Tax Policy, a new Tax...
Every single day that this war goes on, the more the economic damage just compounds. This is the key line right here from @tracyalloway https://t.co/T6hrWxL1Op https://t.co/t8Qos0vB1A
“.. The plan .. reflects the administration’s desperation to reduce oil prices, encouraging Iran to sell more oil even while it is at war ..” @nytimes https://t.co/MWCiL3jrqQ https://t.co/wCWv18Be6N
Apple Now Makes About 25% of iPhones in India After China Pivot. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/qnDkCJRBFG
The world moves on: "EU, Australia set to conclude trade talks early next week" https://t.co/0QuEvOaog1
‘One day chicken, one day feathers’: why US shale producers are not cheering $100 oil. This and more in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/cEMRj6MyHl
People assume oil shocks are bad. But is that true for the US? After all, we are net exporters. This week's newsletter works through some simple models and calculations https://t.co/wohddXGXAR
Following @IEA Member countries' decision to release 400 mln barrels of oil stocks to counter disruptions, initial volumes have already been made available Thank you to countries for their stock contributions & to Canada & Mexico for increased production: https://t.co/CjYXygzQpG https://t.co/sUGUpkuuU0
Important - U.S. admin says it has no plan to enact an oil export restriction
Gold and Silver are down in what is a very interesting move in how the war is changing markets. In Gold, UAE is one of the largest importers (#1 in 2024, $105bn) and exporters (#2 in 2024, $78bn) of gold...
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war....
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks https://t.co/NIh6rJDQhK Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things". https://t.co/xbrposAsbQ
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
ECB officials see possibility of rate hike at April meeting https://t.co/p0GjFZzqz2 via @jrandow @Alemrome https://t.co/WN1EPwWl0Y
The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term Watch Full Video on YT ➡️ https://t.co/vgIHgyjagj #usd #useconomy #geopolitics
The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the...
As with fuel, so with fertilizers. If maintained, China will remove a major global fertilizer exporter (second largest in 2024) from the market already slammed by the closure of the Straits https://t.co/ecZOLrSkBL
By the way, this is what stagflation feels like. Prices are going up, even though the economy is slowing down. It’s the worst economic indicator.
ECB sees inflation peaking at 6.3% in 2027 under severe scenario https://t.co/dHGmN1t9Cw via @weberalexander https://t.co/tdjWSfPgLG
Distinguished Prof. John Mearsheimer on Iran’s strategy: “When you listen to Hegseth and Trump talk, they talk about the Iranians like they’re a bunch of country bumpkins and we’re the strategic geniuses...I think that's not the case…we are up against a formidable...
*US WILL NOT IMPLEMENT CRUDE EXPORT BAN: POLITICO ... OK, so how about refined products? I've been saying up 'till now that they're going to be tempted to restrict trade, but that I thought they'd be more likely to restrict refined products...
Iran war looms over global energy summit @CERAWeek it's "been brewing for 47 years," says historian @DanielYergin, whose own career rose alongside energy geopolitics. https://t.co/MsWAVCPXhv via @axios
Will the Fed look at the data? — #charlespayne and I break it down https://t.co/qyX222T1qM #powell #dimartinobooth #economy
Why is everyone assuming CL manipulation and not just occam's razor that asian markets need oil and they cant access landlocked wti as easily and are all bidding up whatever is accessible even if at a significant premium
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
Europe counts the cost of Middle East war as leaders meet in Brussels https://t.co/Uw7ebXs3sG via @suzannelynch1 https://t.co/4He3c2iNMm
15 years ago, the New England Complex Systems Institute looked at the relationship between food inflation and political instability. I can't emphasize its relevance now as inflation in everything is trampling those at the bottom. https://t.co/Wg5XzDJZAk https://t.co/Se3PcLw0YI
$VIX: 27.85 on March 13. 21.51 now. A 6+ point collapse in one week while oil trades near $100, the Fed just held, and private credit is cracking. Complacency doesn't announce itself. It just shows up in the $VIX. https://t.co/QOUSwv6YZ0
🇪🇺 Unfortunately for the ECB, and despite the staff best efforts to use a later-than-usual cut-off date, their baseline scenario looks instantly obsolete. Market pricing for inflation is already consistent with the adverse scenarios. The main question is about indirect effects....
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 33.1%/yr. Argentina’s money supply (M3) is growing at 31.8%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES...
The 2 year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in less than three weeks. It now suggests one Fed HIKE may be coming.
US in talks with Brazil on critical minerals, US diplomat says at signing of Goias state deal https://t.co/zjFAOPA2pI
The de-dollarization thesis driving gold may be well and truly dead. I'm acting defensively. I have failed - once again - to internalize a theory of mind for pathological narcissists and psychopaths.
🇪🇺 ECB's risks scenarios, including a severe shock generating a mild recession, a rise in unemployment and core inflation peaking at 4%. The latter don't include any monetary policy change as @Lagarde noted, as opposed to the staff which accounts...
its funny (to me) that the ECB obviously looked at the BoE statement today and thought "OK, lets not do anything THAT crazy". The BoE... making the ECB seem sensible
