Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
China’s central bank has elevated capital‑market stability to a major task for 2026, pledging to safeguard stock, bond and foreign‑exchange markets amid heightened global volatility. The announcement came as the Shanghai Composite slipped 1.39%, reflecting broader sell‑offs triggered by the US‑Israel conflict and rising oil prices. The People’s Bank of China also signaled research into liquidity‑support tools for non‑bank financial institutions and a continued crackdown on illegal financial activity. These measures aim to preserve a favourable monetary environment for the 15th five‑year plan.
At the 2026 Yushan Forum, President Lai Ching‑te recast Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy as a broader Indo‑Pacific strategy that blends trade, technology, democratic cooperation, and security. The forum attracted over 70 leaders from 22 nations, underscoring Taiwan’s push to deepen...
The European Central Bank kept its three key policy rates unchanged on 19 March 2026, maintaining the deposit facility at 2.00 %, the main refinancing rate at 2.15 % and the marginal lending facility at 2.40 %. It highlighted that inflation is hovering around the...
An obvious comment on US Foreign Policy: US foreign policy is self-defeating. a. spend a year beating up on allies, threatening to take land (Greenland) from a NATO ally b. wage a trade war against your allies. Sure the tariffs were...
The problem with soaring gas prices in Europe is that it is deja vu all over again when it comes to extreme powerlessness. FWIW - It is hard to imagine Europe gets through this without a voter referendum on powerlessness. Needless to...
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75%. The decision comes as inflation remains above the 2% target, pressured by higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty. By holding rates steady, the MPC...
Europe’s energy markets were jolted on Thursday as military strikes on Qatar and Iran drove natural‑gas prices above €70/MWh and Brent crude past $114 per barrel, levels not seen since the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war. French officials highlighted that 90% of...
Surging Crude Oil Prices: The geopolitical unrest caused Brent crude oil prices to spike past $115–$118 per barrel. As a major energy importer, this poses a significant risk to India's inflation outlook, the rupee, and corporate profit margins.
the Canadian government is gaslighting Canadians again to buy into the inflation is rising because of the U.S./Israel vs. Iran war... not true. tell them commodity prices were rising, in an uptrend, and (rising) more strongly than $TSX stocks, before the...
The escalating US‑Israel‑Iran conflict has pushed crude prices above $120 a barrel as Iranian forces strike Gulf oil and LNG infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Analysts warn that the disruption could evolve into a prolonged supply shock,...
Peter Zeihan argues the U.S. dollar is set for a multi‑decade rise, driven by unrivaled naval power, favorable demographics, abundant food and energy resources, and a looming manufacturing expansion. In the near term, however, policy choices—tight immigration, high tariffs, regulatory...
The war in the Middle East has driven global oil prices higher, pushing Philippine diesel costs up more than double. Jeepney drivers like Toni Prado now earn as little as 200 pesos a day, down from roughly 1,000 pesos, prompting...
The article examines how the recent global energy shock is disproportionately harming South Asian economies. Nepal faces long queues and rationing for cooking gas, Sri Lanka has ordered Wednesday factory shutdowns, and Pakistan has closed schools and shifted universities online. The...
The US 10yr yield is up about 35 bp since the start of the war and the 2yr yield is up about 43 bp. The 2yr break even is up 57 bp to 3.38% and the 10yr breakeven is...
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have sophisticated air forces capable of striking Iranian missile and drone sites, but they have so far limited their involvement to defensive measures. Their fleets include modern F-15s, Eurofighter Typhoons and advanced F-16...
The European Central Bank left policy rates unchanged on Thursday, echoing expectations, but warned that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could have a material impact on inflation across the euro area. The ECB’s statement highlighted heightened uncertainty around energy supplies and...
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) posted a 0.7% headline increase, with core and core‑core measures both rising 0.5%, outpacing market forecasts. The stronger‑than‑expected numbers underscore lingering inflationary pressure despite recent easing in consumer price trends. The post uses the...
Gold delivered the strongest return among major asset classes in 2025, climbing roughly 64% and breaching $5,000 per ounce in early 2026 with an 18% January surge. The rally was fueled by heightened geopolitical risk, a weaker U.S. dollar, aggressive...
The European Parliament’s trade committee voted 29‑for‑0 to eliminate EU tariffs on most US industrial goods, clearing a key hurdle for the EU‑US trade agreement signed in July 2025. The deal retains a 15% US tariff on EU imports while...
Yields surging are a far more existential threat than Iran at this point. No — this is not coming from a political angle. The US cannot afford this war. ▪️Interest payments nearing ~5% of GDP ▪️Military spending ramping up ▪️Trade deficits worsening as...
"Iran war could cause supply chain kinks: Taiwan and Korea, top chip producers, rely on the Middle East for nearly 70% of their crude oil imports, and 20-25% of LNG imports." - BofA on AI capex
China has imposed strict limits on fertilizer exports, banning nitrogen‑potassium blends and many phosphate varieties while allowing only a few products such as ammonium sulphate. The curbs affect up to 40 million tonnes, roughly half to three‑quarters of last year’s shipments,...
#ECB leaves deposit rate at 2.00% as expected. Says war poses upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. Says to decide based on core inflation, transmission strength. Says not pre-committing to particular rate path. https://t.co/9tExdmlBDB
The UK has managed to combine the weakest economy with the most hawkish central bank. Bound to end well
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted, driving oil prices above $100 per barrel and threatening global food security. The United Nations, recalling its 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative that enabled safe Ukrainian grain shipments, could apply a...
There's zero talk of raising taxes to fund this. $40 trillion in National Debt coming soon... https://t.co/zauvCi19PA
Brent crude, global oil benchmark, rose by 8% to $116 a barrel. This will hurt everyone, especially the poor badly. Egypt has already restricted electricity use.... https://t.co/WIVr01CV5C
Shanghai certified 30 new regional headquarters and 15 overseas‑funded R&D centres, including eight Fortune 500 firms. The certifications highlight continued foreign interest despite a three‑year decline in China’s realised FDI. Shanghai now hosts over 1,000 HQs and 647 R&D sites, reinforcing...
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were modest all around last week with wheat and soybeans falling below all expectations. The corn volume is a bit more normal for the week historically but somewhat underwhelming in the context of 2025/26's record pace. https://t.co/3LR2fLgFuR
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 3% CPI Inflation reading for March, up from 2.4% in February. There is now a higher probability of a Fed rate HIKE (8%) in April than a rate CUT (0%). https://t.co/yoWBJBbDDN
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026‑2030) repositions the country for a hostile international environment, emphasizing geopolitical resilience over the optimistic growth narrative of previous plans. Domestically, the plan pushes for technological self‑reliance and reinforces traditional industries such as metallurgy and shipbuilding,...
Brent near $110. WTI at $96-103. Strait of Hormuz blocked. $XLE at all-time highs. $SPY at 2026 lows. This is not an oil rally. This is a tax on every consumer, every margin, every growth assumption. https://t.co/QUhNdfGuZ7
If an oil export ban is coming, they should grant export licenses to anyone increasing production
State‑owned COSCO Shipping Ports announced a push to grow its global terminal footprint, focusing on Southeast Asia, South‑America and Africa to mitigate rising geopolitical risks such as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, China Merchants Shekou reported a 74.7%...
Big thanks to @Aaron_Krolik for including me in this great @nytimes story on how Russia is a major beneficiary from the sharp rise in oil prices. Temporary US waivers of Russia sanctions are de-stigmatizing Russian oil and giving Putin a...
UK 2 year yield + 23bps UK 5 year yield +22bps UK 10 year yield +13bps About that fiscal headroom 🤔
Austria’s public finances have deteriorated after energy price shocks and a post‑pandemic slowdown, leaving the 2025 deficit at 4.5% of GDP and debt at roughly 80% of GDP. The government has launched a seven‑year fiscal consolidation plan aiming to cut...
BOE ‘stands ready to act’ as it unanimously votes to hold rates https://t.co/5iLfNT8re7 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/Trmh2hkLBw
#Gold takes more beating as #BoE grows hawkish mkt prices TWO rate hikes in 2026 #forex
Iranian forces launched a missile that struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas plant, causing extensive damage and prompting fears of a prolonged supply shock. The attack follows Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars field, escalating a...
The market's implied forecasts for Fed rate forecasts through 2026 now only projects -9bps of rate cuts this year. So the market is more hawkish than the Fed's forecast - the market was more dovish than the Fed two weeks...
Fed held at 3.5-3.75%. 7 of 19 members see ZERO cuts in 2026. Dot plot: 1 cut this year, 1 more in 2027. Six months ago the consensus was 3+ cuts. Higher for longer isn't a threat anymore. It's policy. https://t.co/vbJxcKjym9
Follow our live blog for the latest news and updates on the European Central Bank's interest-rate decision https://t.co/Nc9piHPEdR via @jrandow https://t.co/nzehlM7joh
GS: So far, the drawdown for the world portfolio has been limited, especially compared to stagflationary shocks World portfolio 1-year drawdowns (yellow shading denotes periods with US inflation above 3% and rising) https://t.co/Dv0BimDxGJ
Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge: The US dollar rallied strongly during the Federal Reserve’s press conference yesterday as rates jumped in response to what was widely seen as a hawkish hold, especially given Chair Powell’s… https://t.co/L0b4ab2cDv https://t.co/JikD6d1Xxj
We've now reached the point where - four years ago after the invasion of Ukraine - the Brazilian Real began to rally and outperform everyone else. As we settle into a higher-for-longer equilibrium on oil, the same will now start...
Canada's inflation dropped from 2.3% in Jan. to 1.8%/yr in Feb. Canada’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.0%/yr. That’s a bit below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6-8%/yr, a rate consistent with Canada's 1-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A...
Traders shift BOE, ECB rates outlook just hours before policy decisions https://t.co/HA0mTq7RsS via @greg_ritchie @alicegledhill1 https://t.co/CmyGExhjII
5 min until key EZ data drop; Construction output for, checks notes ... January, and Q4 labour costs.
China telling Southeast Asia it's ready to work together on energy security is a little... strange... given they're also banning all fuel exports (something Beijing has yet to publicly acknowledge) https://t.co/tm36jPLTKT
