Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Monday Briefing: Will a New Alliance of Nations Be Able to Guide the World Towards a Post-Fossil Fuel Future?
Oil prices surged to their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after President Donald Trump warned of a prolonged Iranian port blockade, reigniting fears of a global recession. In response, nearly 60 governments convened in Santa Marta, Colombia, for the first‑ever conference dedicated to transitioning away from fossil fuels, committing to develop national roadmaps for a post‑fossil future. The summit also marked Canada’s debut as the first non‑European nation at a European Political Community meeting, underscoring expanding multilateral cooperation. Participants hope the alliance will reshape energy policy and curb the economic volatility tied to oil markets.
April Beef Exports Soar to +140,000t, Led by Vigorous US, China Trade
Australian beef exports rose to 140,943 t in April, an 11% year‑on‑year increase and just shy of March’s near‑record level. The United States remained the top destination with 41,174 t, while shipments to China slipped 10% month‑on‑month to 29,583 t but were still...
Indian Private Sector New Order Growth Quickens in April but Remains Slowest in 4 Years: PMI Survey Shows
India’s private‑sector manufacturing PMI rose to 54.7 in April, up from 53.9 in March, indicating modest expansion as the new fiscal year began. The improvement was driven by stronger new orders and output, with export orders hitting a seven‑month high....
How to Think About Foreign Policy in the New Geoeconomic Era
Iran’s threats to the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting fuel, food and fertilizer supplies, risking acute hunger for 45 million people. British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is urging a swift, toll‑free reopening, warning that tolls would undermine the law of the...
Average Distance of Global Seaborne Trade Has Increased by 10% During the Disruptive 2020s
Clarksons Research reports that the average haul of global seaborne trade rose 10% in the 2020s, reaching 5,262 nautical miles per tonne and generating 68 trillion tonne‑miles last year. The surge stems from expanding U.S. energy exports, Guinea’s bauxite shipments, and...
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Continues to Impact Energy Prices
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, is keeping oil prices volatile near US $100 per barrel. Coal prices have followed, trading in a US $100‑110 band, while 6.5 % sulfur petcoke has risen to US $106 per...
Asia Now Holds Six of World's Top Ten Stock Markets
The Asia Century 20 years ago, just 2 of the world's 10-largest stock markets came from Asia. Today, 6 out of the top 10 are from the region. China's equity market, which didn't make the top 10 list in 2006, is about...
Global Fragmentation Is Rewiring Asia’s Economic Future
Asia’s post‑war boom thrived on predictable globalization, cheap energy and integrated supply chains, lifting millions out of poverty. Today, escalating U.S.–China rivalry and geopolitical friction turn that interdependence into a conduit for shocks, from oil disruptions in the Strait of...
Stablecoin Firms Have a $112B Opportunity in LATAM Remittance Outside of US-Mexico: Bybit
Bybit's chief marketing officer Claudia Wang warns fintechs that the $112 billion non‑US‑Mexico segment of the $174 billion Latin America remittance market is being overlooked. She highlights fast‑growing corridors such as Venezuela‑to‑Colombia and Argentina‑to‑Bolivia, and stresses that each country requires distinct licenses,...
SPX® Realized Skew Inverts as Traders Focus on Right Tail
Traders are pivoting toward the right tail of the SPX options market as realized skew flips. Brent crude surged past $126 per barrel, while the VIX slipped to a three‑month low of 16.9% as the S&P 500 hit an all‑time high...
Middle East Crisis: Poison for the World, but Meat for East Africa’s Oil Dreams?
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has pushed East African leaders to fast‑track a regional oil‑refining strategy centered on Tanzania’s Tanga Refinery Hub and the 1,445 km East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). Kenyan President William Ruto, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Nigerian...
Asean Shares Crude Oil Supply Concerns with Japan, China, South Korea
Finance ministers and central bank governors from ASEAN, Japan, China and South Korea warned that the Middle‑East conflict is amplifying downside risks to regional oil supplies, especially after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. The group, meeting on the...
Brent Holds Above $108 as US Clears StraitBrent Holds Above $108 as US Clears Strait
"Brent was little changed above $108 a barrel, after falling as much as 2.4% at the open, while West Texas Intermediate was near $102. Starting from Monday, the US move was meant to enable vessels that have been stranded by...
US 'Suffocating' Iran with Blockade, Says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new “Economic Fury” program that intensifies the United States’ economic blockade of Iran, aligning it with the Pentagon’s Operation Epic Fury. The initiative, rooted in the March 2024 “max‑pressure” order, aims to cut...
213. Ups and Downs at the Port of Los Angeles
In this episode, host Chad Bowne tours the Port of Los Angeles with executive director Gene Soroka, exploring the port’s massive scale, its role in moving roughly $1 billion of cargo daily, and its critical impact on the U.S. economy—supporting about...
Oil Prices Subdued After Trump Says US Plans to Help Stranded Ships Cross Strait of Hormuz
U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled "Project Freedom," a plan to escort stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil flow. Brent futures hovered near $108 per barrel and WTI around $101.65 as...
Global Markets Mixed as Indian Volatility Spikes
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +107.00(0.44%) 24,254.00(04/05) DowJones-152.87 (-0.31%)49,499.27(01/5) Nasdaq +222.13 (+0.89%)25,114.44(01/05) India Vix +1.0225 (+5.86%)18.4600 (30/04) S&P 500+21.11 (+0.29%) 7,230.12(01/05)
The Sychronised Collapse in Australian Economic Confidence
Roy Morgan economists Gary Morgan, Michele Levine and Julian McCrann urged the Reserve Bank of Australia to pause its interest‑rate tightening, warning that the economy is already fragile and may be slipping into recession. They highlighted a synchronized plunge in...
U.S. Debt Tops 100% of GDP, First Time Since WWII, Sparking Fiscal Alarm
The United States’ national debt rose to $39 trillion, reaching 100.2% of GDP in Q1 2026 – the first time the ratio has exceeded the economy’s size since 1946. Lawmakers and economists warn the surge threatens growth, raises borrowing costs and erodes...
JP Morgan Says Resilient Earnings Will Buoy Equities Amid Stagflation Fears
JP Morgan’s latest market outlook argues that global corporate earnings are holding up, with 2026 earnings forecasts being revised upward across most regions. The bank says this earnings momentum can counteract bearish sentiment tied to stagflation, keeping equity markets on a...
U.S. Dollar's 10% Slide Fuels Higher Everyday Costs for Americans
The U.S. dollar has slipped about 10% against major currencies since early 2025, driving up import‑linked prices for groceries, travel and other everyday items. Economists and business leaders warn the “hidden tax” could tighten personal budgets and alter inflation dynamics.
OPEC+ Lifts Output by 188,000 Bpd as Kuwait Halts Exports Amid Hormuz Blockade
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise June oil output by about 188,000 barrels per day, a symbolic move while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. At the same time, Kuwait Petroleum Corp declared force majeure, stopping roughly 2 million barrels...
OPEC+ Meets Without UAE, Plans 188,000 Bpd Quota Rise for June
Seven OPEC+ nations gathered online for their first meeting since the United Arab Emirates withdrew, agreeing to raise production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day for June. The decision tests the cartel’s unity amid war‑driven supply shocks and a major...
U.S. Approves $8.6 Billion Emergency Arms Sales to Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Israel
The State Department, under Secretary of State Marco Rubio, cleared an $8.6 billion emergency arms package for Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Israel. The deal bundles Patriot interceptors, advanced precision‑kill weapons and battle‑command systems, and was approved without the usual...
Treasury's $109 Bn Quarterly Borrowing Plan Triggers Market Scrutiny of Yellen‑Era Guidance
The U.S. Treasury will unveil its borrowing plan for the next three months, estimating $109 bn in net borrowing. Traders are watching the language of the refunding statement for any change to the Yellen‑era promise of no increases in note and...
South Korea, Taiwan Surge as SE Asia Slows
Good morning, It's day 66 and Iran War and AI Widen the Wedge Between Winners and Losers in Asia. This morning, we got South Korea and Taiwan exceptionalism with their manufacturing activity rising rapidly to 53.6 and 55.3, respectively. Malaysia PMI also...
European Leaders Convene in Armenia Amid Trump Threats
European leaders meet in Armenia as Trump adds more threats — what to watch https://t.co/zP0ljHihk7 via @mcnienaber https://t.co/nQ82ymtYzP
Investors Appear Skeptical as Trump Touts New Plan to Partially Reopen Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump announced a U.S.-led effort to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, promising naval escort for neutral merchant vessels. The announcement sparked brief market volatility, with Dow futures gaining 0.1% before slipping and oil prices easing modestly after...
Taiwan Set to Outsize India by 2026, Korea Follows
At this rate, Taiwan is likely to surpass India’s market in terms of size before the second half of 2026. Korea is not far behind Taiwan and could there soon after. https://t.co/Zq7jUioSjt
Currency Weaponization Forces Risk Managers to Rethink Sanctions
Weaponization of currency. As the global order becomes increasingly fragmented more countries will look to protect their interests from the failing US hegemony. This is increasingly important for global risk managers who need to address how their operations map against...
Is Australia Really a Low-Taxing Country?
Robert Carling of the Centre for Independent Studies argues that Australia’s tax burden, when measured against the effective tax base, is about 34‑36% of GDP, placing it near the OECD median rather than a low‑tax outlier. The claim that Australia...
Iran Weaponizes Hormuz to Disrupt Oil, Raise Prices
Tanker in Strait of Hormuz hit by "unknown projectiles" Doesn't matter if it happened or not This is IRGC's MO & strategy You don’t shut Hormuz. You make it uninsurable. Flows slow. Prices rise. Control achieved. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #IranWar #EnergyIsTheEconomy #Macro
Sri Lanka's Economy Still Stagnant After 2019 Crisis
Until the currency crisis hit Sri Lanka in 2019, it was growing on par with India. Contrary to reports in the Western media, since the crisis and the IMF’s intervention, the economy has never recovered. https://t.co/HTdlhPOpEm
Kazakhstan’s AIFC Discussing Stock-Trading Links with Shanghai, Hong Kong
The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) is negotiating with Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges to launch cross‑border stock‑connection schemes, likely beginning with ETFs denominated in tenge and yuan. Kazakh investors are keen on Chinese tech giants like Tencent and carmaker BYD,...
Fed Clings to Flawed Inflation Metric Amid Rising Prices
The St. Louis Fed now posting Kevin Warsh’s useless inflation metric. That’s how far these guys have to go to justify cutting rates while inflation is picking back up. https://t.co/2DvEMmGuRZ https://t.co/hoSrqX9OFs
US Calls Taiwan Trusted Partner, Highlights Eswatini Ties
JUST IN: The US describes Taiwan as a 'trusted and capable' partner and praises its ties with Eswatini.
Shadow Fleet Attacks Widen Maritime Risks Around Russia
Ukraine intensified attacks on vessels carrying Russian crude, striking two shadow‑fleet tankers near Novorossiysk and a Baltic Sea tanker in early May. The assaults follow the April 26 hit on the dark‑fleet tanker Marquise and a April 30 strike on...
Powell: The Last Fed Chair Nominated by Three Presidents
Powell was an Obama, Trump, and Biden nominee at the Fed… the end of era, sadly.
Philippine Manufacturing Shrinks in April as War-Driven Costs Bite
The Philippines’ manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.3 in April, its first sub‑50 reading since November 2023, indicating contraction. The decline was driven by a sharp fall in new orders—the steepest since August 2021—and a surge in input‑price inflation, the fastest...
U.S. Q1 2026 GDP Grows 2% Annualized, Yet Headwinds Loom
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP grew at a 2% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, up from a 0.5% gain in the prior quarter but shy of the 2.3% forecast. Growth was powered by...
BoT Chief Calls for Targeted Stimulus Package
Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn urged the government to craft a stimulus package that mixes cash transfers with sector‑specific investment to offset rising energy costs from the Middle‑East conflict. He warned that a premature rate hike, despite the BoT’s...
U.S. Stocks Hit Record Highs as Earnings Surge, Jobs Data Loom, Oil Prices Spike
U.S. equities closed the week at record levels, buoyed by a robust earnings season and expectations for strong April payroll numbers, even as Brent crude surged past $120 a barrel. The S&P 500 posted a 10% monthly gain and the...
Southeast Asia’s Deep Tech Startups Look to Japan for Growth
Southeast Asian deep‑tech startups are increasingly looking to Japan for patient capital and market access as regional funding dries up and domestic markets stay small. At the SusHi Tech conference, nearly 70 firms from the region showcased technologies ranging from...
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE Advance New Overland‑Sea Corridor to Bypass Hormuz
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates announced a coordinated push to build an overland‑sea logistics corridor that sidesteps the Strait of Hormuz. The plan links UAE and Oman ports to Saudi rail lines, Jordan, and ultimately the Suez...
DRC to Ship 500,000 T of Copper to U.S., Civil Society Flags Corruption Risks
The state‑owned miner Gécamines announced a plan to send 500,000 metric tons of copper to the United States – a five‑fold jump from the 100,000‑ton commitment made in January. Civil‑society leaders warn the surge could repeat past corruption patterns and...
RBI Governor Warns of Global Debt Risks as India’s Economy Shows Resilience
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra told the 25th FIMMDA‑PDAI conference that India’s macro fundamentals remain strong while soaring sovereign debt in the US and Europe poses systemic risks. He outlined a roadmap for deeper liquidity, broader participation and...
Trump Says the US Will 'Guide' Stranded Ships From the Strait of Hormuz, Starting on Monday
President Donald Trump announced "Project Freedom," a U.S. operation to guide stranded commercial vessels and roughly 20,000 seafarers out of the Iran‑blocked Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. The effort will involve guided‑missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft and about 15,000...
Ringgit Projected to Trade in Tight RM3.96‑RM3.98 Band Against the Dollar Next Week
Bank Muamalat Malaysia's chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid forecast the ringgit will hover between RM3.96 and RM3.98 per US dollar next week, citing upcoming US non‑farm payrolls as the main driver. The outlook comes as the currency shows mixed...
Russia Rises to Fourth‑Largest Economy by PPP, Led by Agriculture and Chemicals
Russia’s gross domestic product measured by purchasing power parity has moved to fourth place worldwide, overtaking Japan, as agriculture, chemicals and manufacturing rebound after sanctions. The shift, highlighted by Stolypin Institute expert Anton Sviridenko, signals a re‑ordering of the global...
Speculators Flood Commodities as Corn Stalls at $5 per Bushel
Large speculative funds are building record‑size grain positions while December corn barely nudged above $5 per bushel, a two‑year high. Analyst Ted Seifried says the influx reflects broader concerns over fertilizer shortages and geopolitics, but near‑term fundamentals remain mixed.