Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
To Lam Meets Modi, ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, Sony's Business Strategy
Vietnamese President To Lam is on a three‑day state visit to India to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aiming to deepen security, trade and digital cooperation amid rising China tensions. At the same time, the Philippines hosts the ASEAN ministerial meeting that opens this year’s summit, focusing on the energy crisis and a South China Sea code of conduct. Sony Group will unveil its corporate strategy and full‑year earnings, with investors watching the PlayStation 5 memory‑chip shortage impact. Additional highlights include Grab’s earnings release and the SAHA 2026 defence expo in Istanbul featuring a record Asian presence.
Fed's Goolsbee Calls March PCE Inflation 'Bad News' And Urges Delay on Rate Cuts
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the 3.5% year‑over‑year rise in March’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index “bad news” for the Federal Reserve. He warned that the central bank should wait for clear evidence that inflation is moving back toward...
Global Aluminium Market Shaken but Resilient Amid Middle East Conflict
The ongoing Strait of Hormuz conflict has disrupted the global aluminium market, cutting off roughly 7% of supply and damaging about 3% of worldwide production capacity. Prices have surged to near‑historic levels, averaging $3,400 per tonne and are expected to...
Tesla Launches Chinese‑made Model 3 in Canada at $29,000, Slashing Price by Half
Tesla has begun shipping its Shanghai‑built Model 3 Premium Rear‑Wheel‑Drive to Canada at a list price of $39,490 CAD (≈$29,000 USD), nearly 50% lower than the previous entry‑level price. The move follows Canada’s reduction of tariffs on Chinese EVs to 6.1%, reversing a...
Japan Commits $10 Billion to Boost Vietnam Energy and Critical Mineral Partnership
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a $10 billion Power Asia Initiative to secure oil supplies and critical minerals for Vietnam, while pledging broader economic‑security cooperation. The move comes as Japan seeks to diversify away from China and Vietnam eyes stable...
US Sanctions 5 Chinese Refiners, China Issues Statement to Ignore Trump
The U.S. Treasury placed a Hengli Petrochemical unit and 40 shipping firms on its Specially Designated Nationals list, targeting five private Chinese refiners accused of moving Iranian oil. These "teapot" refiners use yuan‑denominated payments and have limited overseas exposure, allowing...
Markets with Bertie: Why Are the Foreigners Flitting Off ?
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) withdrew roughly $20 bn from Indian equities in the first four months of 2024, a figure mirrored—and even exceeded—in Korea where outflows approached $40 bn. The popular narrative that capital is fleeing India because it lacks listed AI...
Digital Ray AI Flags 15‑20% Market Correction, Backs Gold and Short Treasuries
Ray Dalio’s AI model, Digital Ray, warns that U.S. equities face a 15%‑20% correction within the next 12‑18 months. The tool advises hedge‑fund managers to tilt toward gold and short‑duration Treasury bonds as defensive positions.
Africa’s Aviation Capacity Jumps 13.7% as Middle East Turmoil Reroutes Global Traffic
IATA data released this week shows Africa’s total aviation capacity grew 13.7% in 2026, with Eastern Africa posting a 24.3% surge. The jump comes as airlines reroute around the Middle‑East crisis, positioning Kenya, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Ghana and Nigeria as the...
European Stocks Slip 0.8% as Rate‑Sensitive Sectors Lead Sell‑Off
European equity markets opened lower as investors grew wary of sticky inflation, lingering growth concerns and the prospect of prolonged higher rates. The STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.8%, the FTSE 100 slipped 0.5%, and the DAX 40 dropped 0.9%, marking...
ECB Holds Rates Steady as Energy-Driven Inflation Rises to 3%
The European Central Bank kept its deposit facility at 2.0%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% after its April 30 meeting. Inflation in the eurozone jumped to 3% in April, up from 2.6%...
UAE Leaves OPEC After Six Decades, Redefining Gulf Oil Strategy
Abu Dhabi announced it will quit OPEC after nearly 60 years, freeing itself from production quotas that capped its output at about 3.8 million barrels per day. The decision aligns with ADNOC’s 5 million‑bpd target for 2027 and a non‑oil GDP share...
Trump Approves $550,000‑Barrel‑Per‑Day “Keystone Lite” Pipeline, Reviving Canada‑U.S. Oil Link
President Donald Trump granted a presidential permit for the Bridger Pipeline Expansion—dubbed “Keystone Lite”—authorizing up to 550,000 barrels of Canadian crude per day to cross the border. The approval revives a stalled cross‑border oil conduit, but ignites fresh opposition from Indigenous...
Middle East Conflict Spurs Surge in Sovereign Bond Yields, IMF Warns of Crisis Risk
The International Monetary Fund warned that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could ignite a global financial crisis, sending yields on G7 sovereign bonds higher. The warning comes as oil prices have risen 66% since recent attacks, and...
WIN Advisors Puts $13 Million Into Harbor All‑Weather Commodity ETF
WIN Advisors, Inc. disclosed a new $13.13 million stake in the Harbor Commodity All‑Weather Strategy ETF (HGER), representing about 6.7% of its reported assets under management. The purchase, filed on May 1, 2026, signals a strategic shift toward inflation‑hedging commodities amid lingering...
TSMC Futures Leap 40 Points After Trump Halts Iran Action, Taiwan Market Poised for Rebound
TSMC futures jumped 40 points in pre‑market trading after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a halt to hostile actions against Iran. The move lifted expectations that Taiwan's main index will open higher on Monday, despite continued foreign‑investor selling. Analysts...
Global Upgrade for Major Ports
India is shifting its 12 major government‑owned ports to a corporatised model under the Major Port Authorities Act of 2021. The change aims to give publicly owned ports commercial autonomy, professional management and easier access to capital, while retaining public...
Weakening Peso
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% as oil prices surged past $120 per barrel amid a renewed Hormuz blockade. The central bank aims to curb second‑round inflation and stabilize a peso...
Government Borrowings Fall by Nearly 40 Percent in March
The Philippines’ Treasury reported a sharp 39.4% drop in total government borrowings in March, falling to ₱116.66 billion (about $2.1 billion) from ₱192.45 billion a year earlier. The decline was driven by a 70.4% plunge in domestic debt, while external financing more than...
17-Year US Bull Market
The U.S. equity market has entered its 17th year of an uninterrupted bull run, with the S&P 500 breaking 7,200 and the Nasdaq 100 soaring past 27,000 despite geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. The rally is being powered by a succession...
DA Eyes Expanded MAV for Pork, Corn
The Philippine Department of Agriculture is set to approve an expanded Minimum Access Volume (MAV) for imported pork and corn under the MAV Plus scheme within the month. The expansion adds roughly 250,000 metric tons of corn to the existing quota...
DRC Mining Boom Masks Heavy Reliance on China and Copper
The Democratic Republic of Congo’s mining sector is projected to generate almost $40 billion in exports by 2025, but the boom is underpinned by a narrow trade profile. China absorbs roughly 62% of the country’s mineral shipments, while copper alone represents...
Domestic Shale Keeps US Gas Cheap; Europe Pays Import Premium
The Shale Revolution gave US producers access to abundant domestic natural gas, which is why America can maintain low natural gas prices even amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Europe's natural gas prices, by contrast, are suffering because Europe banned fracking and...
Iran Has Collected a ‘Pittance’ of Less than $1.3 Million in Hormuz Tolls, Bessent Says, as Currency Dives to Fresh...
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran has collected less than $1.3 million in tolls for ships passing the Strait of Hormuz, a fraction of its pre‑war daily oil earnings. At the same time, Iran’s rial slid to a fresh record...
Canada to Be First Non-European Nation at EPC Summit as Carney Seeks Allies
Canada will become the first non‑European nation to attend the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, with Prime Minister Mark Carney aiming to forge new trade and diplomatic ties after what he describes as a loss of U.S. market access...
Multiple Macro Forces Make Equities Irresistibly Bullish
Timeless and universal really bullish equity drivers 1. Companies don't need any money from capital markets and in fact are aggressive buyers of their own debt and equity. 2. Budget deficits are expanding YoY at a pace in excess of Nominal GDP...
UAE’s OPEC Exit Threatens Oil Price Collapse, Recession
Think oil prices are too high? Wait til they completely collapse and send us into an oil-based recession. The UAE’s exit from OPEC is very bad news https://t.co/TqXUsn8Djw
US Is Oil Supplier of Last Resort as Hormuz Disruptions Worsen
The United States has become the world’s leading crude exporter, shipping more than 250 million barrels in the past nine weeks and overtaking Saudi Arabia as Hormuz disruptions choke Middle‑Eastern supplies. Domestic oil and fuel inventories have fallen for four consecutive...
Debunking the China Shock 2.0 Hysteria
Easily the best and most comprehensive takedown of the current "China Shock 2.0" hysteria that I've seen so far. (tl;dr in the screenshots) Strongly recommended. "Should we be scared of China's surpluses?" https://t.co/RSBXkN5WX3 https://t.co/z6TS8YwaNV
Tariff Refund Quest Reveals Billions Likely Unrecoverable
"He recorded his quest for tariff refunds. It shows why billions may never get repaid" https://t.co/pbKa6Zq9Ev https://t.co/GekjOsX5QF
Poilievre: Carney Should State What 'Leverage' Canada Has in Trade Talks
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre urged Prime Minister Mark Carney to spell out Canada’s bargaining power in the upcoming CUSMA renewal. Carney has resisted labeling energy and critical minerals as leverage, framing them instead as trade opportunities. The dispute comes as U.S. Trade...
US Bond Market Endures Record 69-Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 69 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/Y1cdWffv71
Japan's Growing Frustration Over 101 U.S. Bases
Many Japanese are also fed up with the fact that the US has 101 military bases in Japan. That's second only to Germany, which is home for 118 US military bases. https://t.co/2vZKRWfr7Y
OPEC Members Increase Oil Production Quota by 188,000 Bpd, No Word on UAE's Withdrawal Amid War in West Asia
Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC members announced a 188,000 barrel‑per‑day increase to the June production quota, effectively filling the gap left by the United Arab Emirates’ sudden withdrawal from the cartel. The boost mirrors similar adjustments made in...
China Relies on Food Imports Far More than US or EU
China is far more dependent on imported food/feed than either the US or the EU. In a world of "food regimes", this is a highly unusual and unique development. https://t.co/5797bIqtl7
Americans Rapidly Reject US‑Israeli War on Iran
Trump’s war in Iran has reached Iraq/Vietnam era disapproval levels in RECORD TIME. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = RECEIVES THUMBS DOWN FROM THE AMERICAN PUBLIC. https://t.co/iCGpZF0VZS
Explainer: Could Island Chain Dismantle Reshape Commercial Shipping?
For seven decades the U.S.-led “island chain” – a string of bases from Japan to the Philippines – has underpinned the world’s busiest maritime corridors, especially the South China Sea. China is now systematically eroding that architecture through new military...
Stocks Rise if Growth Outpaces Inflation
Great chart. The bigger question is whether growth soars more than inflation? What do stocks do if growth keeps surprising to the upside?
Foreign Buyers Paying Premium Keeps U.S. Stock Draws Steep
Of course, there is no additional oil, beyond the SPR release—just the rest of the world still willing to pay more than Americans for American barrels, at least for now. So long as that’s true, more steep stock draws cometh. https://t.co/BvLo10lL0S
Pakistan’s Inflation Soars Above 11% as Oil Shock Triggers Stock Market Crash
Topline Securities warned that soaring global oil prices tied to the Middle East war will push Pakistan’s inflation above 11% and force the State Bank to tighten rates. The surge in energy costs has already driven a 15% plunge in...
2021‑22 Price Shock Evolved Into Broad Inflation Wave
How the price shock of 2021-2022 mutated into a more comprehensive wave of inflation. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/5s8MaZvyqK
US Auto Industry Faces $5 B Supply‑Chain Shock
Supply chain hell for US auto firms. Detroit carmakers warn of $5bn commodities shock due to Iran war. Sector faces rising prices for supplies from aluminium to plastics and paint
Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz, Slashing 25% of Global Oil Flow
Iran’s decision to block the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly 25% of global oil imports, sending crude prices to four‑year highs. The move pits Tehran’s resilient oil‑export strategy against a U.S.-led blockade, while energy firms scramble to profit from...
Analysts Warn Crash Risk Looms for U.S. Stocks Despite Record Highs
Even as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow hit fresh all‑time highs, analysts say a confluence of AI‑driven hype, record share‑buyback volumes and rising geopolitical strain could spark a market correction. The warning comes amid President Trump’s aggressive foreign policy...
IMO Pushes Net‑Zero Shipping Framework, Raising Stakes for Marine Fuel Markets
The International Maritime Organization advanced a net‑zero emissions framework for shipping at its MEPC 84 meeting, setting a decisive timeline for a global fuel standard and carbon pricing. The move pits the U.S. and Saudi opposition against a growing coalition...
Lynas Rare Earths CEO Amanda Lacaze on Having the Guts to Invest During a Price Slump
Lynas Rare Earths has locked in a $110 per kilogram price floor for its neodymium‑praseodymium alloy with the U.S. Department of Defense and secured a $258 million U.S. commitment for a heavy‑rare‑earth refinery in Texas. The company also signed a 10‑year...
The US Sanctioned Chinese Oil Refineries. Now China Is Really Pushing Back
China has ordered domestic firms to ignore U.S. sanctions on five Chinese oil refineries accused of trading Iranian fuel, invoking the 2021 Blocking Rules in a first‑ever formal injunction. The decree warns that banks or suppliers that cut ties with...
Egg‑centric Analysis: Politicians Cherry‑pick, Not Forecast
When politicians zoom in from the whole economy to one carton of eggs, that's not a macro forecast. That's culinary cherry-picking. https://t.co/NCWLFtPggO
From Footwear to AI Services: China Moves up the Value Chain in Exports
China is rapidly moving up the export value chain, with services such as ICT, AI, and engineering reaching $118 billion in 2025—a 13% year‑on‑year rise. Traditional goods like footwear saw a 9% decline, dropping to $46 billion, underscoring the structural shift. Companies...
Budget to Prioritise Savings over Spending Amid Inflation Concerns
The Australian Labor government’s May budget will earmark the entire windfall from higher oil and gas prices for savings rather than new spending. Analysts estimate the commodity surge will generate AUD$15‑30 bn (≈US$10‑20 bn) through 2027‑28, which will be used to trim...