Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics released its spring 2026 Global Economic Prospects, outlining the latest outlook for the United States and major world economies. Karen Dynan warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict and volatile energy prices are tightening growth forecasts and stoking inflation globally, while complicating monetary policy. Jed Kolko highlighted how immigration trends, artificial‑intelligence adoption, and data‑measurement gaps are reshaping U.S. labor‑market dynamics and creating uncertainty around hiring slack. Tianlei Huang examined China’s property‑sector slump, its fiscal repercussions, and the potential spillover effects on the broader global economy.
Fed Chair Powell says we "just don't know" what impact of oil shock will be. "The standard learning is that you look through energy shocks, but that’s always been dependent on inflation expectations remaining WELL ANCHORED." "The US economy is doing pretty...
The Chart Summit 2026 – Commodities webcast, led by veteran analyst Jason Perz, spotlights the emerging leg of the commodity cycle. Perz argues that macroeconomic forces and currency dynamics are removing traditional price ceilings for key metals and energy assets....
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the 5.25%‑5.50% range, reaffirming its projection that rates will remain at this level through 2026. The decision followed a two‑day policy meeting marked by cautious deliberations but no...
BRICS members remain divided over the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, with China and Brazil condemning the attacks while India stays neutral and South Africa hesitates. The bloc’s recent expansion to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE has...
Core PCE inflation has been marching upwards (>1% above target). Yet Fed officials are only inching up their forecasts (they're still offsides) No downside changes to u3 or output gap. Yet the Fed is still penciling in a cut for this year....
Take a look at the Fed's new projections: 1 rate cut in 2026 1 rate cut in 2027 Higher inflation forecast **Slightly higher GDP forecast** --> this signals they are NOT projecting "stagflation" Unemployment rate staying around the current level (4.4%) Bottom line: Fed currently signaling...
The White House has temporarily waived the Jones Act for 60 days, easing U.S. vessel restrictions amid heightened geopolitical tension. Simultaneously, the war in Iran and a Greek tanker attack in the Black Sea have driven up container rates and...
JUST IN: The Fed leaves rates unchanged (3.5 to 3.75%). **The projection is for 1 rate cut in 2026** 11 Fed leaders voted for this Only 1 dissent (Trump official Stephen Miran) The statement says: "The implications of developments in the Middle East...
The Federal Reserve’s March 18 FOMC statement kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent, pausing further hikes. The Committee noted solid economic expansion, modest job gains and a stable unemployment rate, while inflation remains somewhat elevated...
If Powell focuses more on the upside risks to inflation ( which is likely going to be the case ) I believe Oil can see some initial downside on this due to possible future demand contraction concerns. If that becomes the case...
We are in a stagflation environment and we are getting more deep into it. The FED is trapped already. If they hold for too long or consider hiking to control inflation —> they will make the already weak labor market even more...
The Iran war has created a lasting inflation floor, signaling the end of the post‑2008 era of cheap money. Persistent oil price spikes and supply disruptions are forcing nations to prioritize energy security over cost efficiency. Central banks, which previously...
Jim Cramer’s CNBC Investing Club highlighted a market pull‑back driven by hotter‑than‑expected wholesale inflation data and rising oil prices amid Middle‑East tensions. Amazon stock slipped nearly 2% after a Reuters report warned that AI‑driven cloud spending could surge, prompting concerns...
russia sending two shipments of oil. and gas to…cuba. will president trump order interdiction? i’d say pretty good chance he will.
Let's unpack this.. What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz? What if this war is really about ships & tariffs? I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share...
Markets didn't like that. Going to need to trot out some fed representative and clean it up soon is my guess.
China's manufacturing surplus looks to have taken another leg up. Always a good idea to get confirmation in March given the new year distortions. But Europe looks to be getting squeezed both by China and higher energy prices https://t.co/8EZnqysgKL
Powell says he definitely would not use the word "certain" to describe his view on the onetimeness of the inflationary effect of tariffs
In my 20+ years watching markets, this is one of the best central bank press conferences I've ever seen. Its right up there with Draghi and Bernanke's greatest hits. Chair Powell is in rare form.
The problem with dismissing all the shocks as "one-time things" is that they all have the same directional impact on inflation and underlying inflation was already running around 3%, which means that in practice you will never hit a 2%...
A propos of Powell's comments just now: non-housing services inflation versus ECI wage growth. You can see a bit of a wedge opening up, with nominal wage growth cooling while services inflation stays tenacious. https://t.co/WmtcQV5Cxr
Powell says he has no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is over. And beyond that, he says he has not decided whether or not he will remain on as a Governor after is his term as chair.
Powell did not have a good answer to the question of why non-housing services inflation has been moving the wrong way if the job market is actually "not inflationary"
Approaching 3 weeks of Strait closure and no end in sight. Crazy things are happening out there.
Interesting catch where Powell corrects himself from saying "weakness in the labor market" (objectively wrong) to "downside risk in the labor market" (maybe wrong but at least defensible)
Fed Holds Rates, now with Only 1 Dissenter, Sees Accelerating Inflation & GDP Growth. Dot Plot projections still point at 1 rate cut in 2026. Powell: “If we don’t see that progress [on inflation], then you won’t see that rate cut.” https://t.co/d1jJR0aFr2
Powell reiterates that the Fed "worries a lot" about inflation expectations becoming unanchored due to the multiple shocks over the last 5 years.
Powell says US oil companies won't raise production unless they believe oil price shocks will be persistent and they don't believe this. Why can't the Fed say the same?
The Fed's stance appears to have changed very little. A simple interpretation: The Fed wants to wait and see what's happening in the Middle East. There's no point taking a strong view until reality becomes clearer. (Powell just described FOMC members...
At the Fed press conference, Powell reflects some frustration that inflation hasn't moved more sharply toward target, as tariff-fueled prices are still working their way through the system. This is a moderately hawkish presser, for reasons that largely pre-date the...
There's not really any reason why we should think that tariff driven inflation shocks need to be seen to be proven they are temporary.
Don't understand why another supply shock should affect the path of rates. Excessive focus on supply shocks as an explanation for pandemic inflation is a problem. Its causing excess fear from poliymakers today.
In response to a question from @colbyLsmith, Powell acknowledges that 5 years of missing the inflation target will help inform the degree to which the FOMC can look through the oil price surge.
Don't know why he said this, services inflation is also accelerating across a broad range of categories
Powell: "Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks likely reflecting the rise in oil prices causes by supply disruptions in the Middle East"
Powell just OMITTED this line about "disinflation in the service sector" (vs January press conference) https://t.co/knGJ2D4YW2
The Fed disagree with markets on this (and I largely agree). A supply shock -- especially one that doesn't really move core inflation -- should not automatically lead to higher rates. https://t.co/V0LS0P6sGE
According to TSLombard, Trump’s numbers are horrible on just about everything, but on the economy it is looking really bad. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/Ro8tuPfMZk
It is (too) low. Guessing some of the Fed officials were not willing to fold in Feb CPI data into their projections. And certainly not today's PPI data
The distribution of the FOMC inflation outlook shifted to the right (higher) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 https://t.co/6hxNK4fUdP
Fed SEP shows a lot of optimism with GDP growth picking up, the unemployment rate coming down and inflation easing.
No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%). https://t.co/dAHaot3Kk4
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
Hot Producer Price Inflation Adds to Fed’s Complex and Worsening Inflation Problem. Worst 6-month PPI inflation since August 2022 (+5.3% annualized). After multiple rate cuts by the Fed, inflation heats up everywhere: services, food, energy, other goods https://t.co/bCQedto2Yy https://t.co/l9dugS4fI2
What if the United States doesn’t care about reopening the strait for Europe? My latest gCaptain Op-Ed 👇
Ouch. A standard estimate (ballpark) is ~ 10 mbd/ 10% of world supply is now off the market. Some elasticities were closer to -0.1, which implies a price hike of up to $100. This elasticity would...
Israel's reckless escalation in attacking Iran's South Pars gas facilities - hitting onshore processing facilities for Phases 3-6, gives Iran plausible excuse (if it needed it) to hit back against regional energy facilities Neutrals & world energy consumers will suffer https://t.co/Kx7MytxmEn
Fed: "K-shaped economy, firms can't pass through price increases." Data: "Firms pass through price increases."
OUT NOW - @SquirrelMacro loves owning stocks but keeps seeing reasons to lighten his bag, from: - mega IPO issuance of money-losing companies - cracks in software & private credit - U.S. consumer weakening Apple https://t.co/qZiDfSFK94 Spotify https://t.co/zqeGlNjrbb https://t.co/53hmkQuqqX
