Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The episode examines the ripple effects of the recent oil price surge, sparked by an Iranian petrochemical plant strike, on global markets and everyday life. Market maker Greg Newman describes unprecedented volatility and links the crisis to broader geopolitical tensions involving Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela, while journalists in Bangladesh illustrate how soaring fuel costs are causing long queues, power cuts, and rising consumer prices. The discussion then shifts to Eurozone inflation edging toward 2%, complicating central banks' policy decisions, and concludes with insights on Nigeria‑UK trade prospects, highlighting opportunities in technology, infrastructure, and energy as Nigeria seeks to leverage reforms and stable foreign reserves.
Brent crude oil prices surge to $110/barrel. Israel strikes Iran's largest gas plant. Iran is now announcing that some Gulf energy sites are "legitimate targets."
The Federal Reserve will announce a hold on its benchmark rate at the March 2026 meeting, while 10‑year Treasury yields slipped to 4.202% amid soaring oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions. Market participants cite a near‑certain pause, internal disagreements...
The ongoing Middle East conflict has driven oil‑gas price spikes, heightening economic uncertainty across the region. In the Philippines, digital‑payment platforms have become a key buffer, with 72 % of consumer transactions conducted electronically in 2025 and a three‑fold rise in...
Stanford economists estimate that rising gasoline prices could cost the average U.S. household about $740 this year, roughly matching the projected $750 boost from the 2023 tax refund legislation. Their model assumes a brief Strait of Hormuz closure, with gasoline...
The Democratic Republic of Congo, responsible for over 70% of global cobalt, imposed an export ban in February 2025 and later introduced strict quotas, slashing refined output by roughly 20%. The curbs created an 82,000‑ton deficit in 2025 and drove...
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has constrained tanker flows, cutting roughly 20% of global LNG supply. The shutdown of Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant and reduced transit capacity have driven sharp price spikes across Asian and European markets. Approximately 90%...
The Federal Open Market Committee convened an atypical session this week, delivering a surprise 25‑basis‑point rate increase despite a modest dip in headline inflation. The decision broke with the consensus of many analysts who had expected a pause, reflecting the...
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate at the 3.50%‑3.75% range, marking a second consecutive pause after three 25‑basis‑point cuts in late 2025. Markets have already priced in the hold, so investors will focus on Chair Jerome...
Kenya’s foreign minister Musalia Mudavadi urged African nations to boost self‑reliance as the Iran conflict fuels global fragmentation and rising oil prices. He framed the moment as a historic inflection point, calling for a multi‑alliance foreign policy that balances traditional...
Oil is a almost perfectly fungible commodity* with a single global price ... except during periods of stress Via JP's Natasha Kaneva, the spread between North Atlantic sweet light and the oil Asia normally buys has reached extreme levels * setting...
Trump spent years trashing NATO. He's been threatening to have the US withdrawal since his first term. Now he wants NATO to bail him out of a war he chose. Europe said no. That’s not the story of weak allies- that’s the consequence of...
Cosco‑controlled Piraeus port reported a 6% drop in 2025 throughput, handling 3.97 million TEU, marking the second consecutive year of decline. Analysts attribute the loss to Red Sea disruptions that rerouted cargo to Spain and northern Europe rather than pure demand...
An unintended consequence of the strikes on Iran’s gas fields? Turkey may be forced to import more LNG 🇹🇷 🚢 Iran sends gas from South Pars to Turkey via a pipeline (making up ~15% of the country’s demand) If that’s shut,...
Iran appears to be preparing to retaliate after attacks on its giant gas field 🇮🇷 ⚠️ It issued a warning to stay away from a range of similar assets in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE The inclusion of Qatar (home...
U.S. wholesale price growth accelerated sharply in March 2026, marking the third consecutive month of above‑trend increases according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Wholesale Price Index rose 0.7% month‑over‑month and 4.2% year‑over‑year, the fastest pace since 2022. The...
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at a tenuous moment for the economy as the Iran war drags on. The conflict is expected to amplify internal divisions, injecting yet more uncertainty into the debate around when the Fed...
Oil is heading to $150 a barrel. And the people who will feel it hardest are the ones who voted for the man who caused it. I sat down to break down exactly what the Iran crisis means for oil markets,...
Dr. Ed’s latest webcast, featuring Eric Wallerstein, assesses the impact of the Strait of Hormuz tension on energy markets. He argues that the perceived blockade is less severe, with oil supply disruptions roughly half of worst‑case estimates. Iran’s decision to...
Producer Prices - How much oil data (days > $80) is in this PPI inflation data? PPI vs Brent Move -- Zero days above $80 in this Feb PPI print—WTI cruised the entire month between $61–$67 (avg ~$64.50, peak 67.31 on...
Comparing what is now happening with what has happened in analogous historical situations and triangulating my thinking with smart, well-informed leaders and experts has always helped me make better decisions. I have found that most wars are filled with big...
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤. What if China’s economic power is much bigger than we realize? In just 45 seconds, I’ll reveal the truth behind China’s 90% Model and how it’s reshaping industries globally. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐥𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧: The insidious strategy behind...
Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait...
20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It's been disrupted for 3 weeks. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves. That tells you how serious this is. https://t.co/KrxQw3KVSX
IDK if this is really much of a silver lining. On trend means that trade services are passing on costs at twice the pre-pandemic pace. That speaks to embedded inflation above target. https://t.co/IwClLNNndO
it is true that 2026 is seeing the most sudden shock to oil and gas supply. But both 1973 and 1979 had a very significant effect on long-run output as well. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the...
Even though PPI in February printed high, the components that filter into PCE (including downward revisions for December) came in a bit lower than the sharp-pencils anticipated. February PCE is still expected to be firm, but a touch less so...
Ed Yardeni tells Squawk Box the Iran war could trigger a 10%-15% market correction. https://t.co/N1pfsujcVF
I think this is the most important question to understand moving forward. Asked @BobEUnlimited about what his checklist looks like for when oil shocks flip from inflation to demand destruction
In some of Russia's harshest criticism of the US war in Iran, which Putin has tried not to say much on, top aide Nikolai Patrushev calls it a "tragedy" that will "set global trade and economics back years" and "has...
The Trump Administration makes way too much of the bilateral balance with China -- Monthly imports from Taiwan alone topped imports from China in the last quarter of data 1/2 https://t.co/IOKB3Ii1lH
Great quote that speaks to the Fed's challenging task of (1) looking through supply shocks while also (2) maintaining a robust nominal anchor. As folks like @IrvingSwisher and I have said for sometime, stabilizing the growth path of aggregate nominal...
How China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive—From buying oil to selling rocket parts, China gives Iran critical support @austinramzy @RoryWSJ https://t.co/xCbI1lO7VO https://t.co/xCbI1lO7VO
"A careful look at the current state of international market freight rates shows that, in fact, substituting a foreign flag tanker on a domestic route currently served by a Jones Act tanker would more than likely result in an increase...
Trump’s tariffs and the US-Israeli war on Iran are sending fertilizer and diesel costs through the roof. Diesel is up ~$1/gallon in a week. Urea fertilizer has jumped from $470/ton to up to $585. This jump in cost spells trouble for Trump and...
JUST IN: Stocks drop as Wholesale Inflation (PPI) comes in higher than expected (+0.7% MoM vs +0.3% forecast)
Worth noting just how much the Iran war has changed expectations about the Fed and the future path of monetary policy. https://t.co/NBYZx2Uuza
In news not related to the Straights of Hormuz, China's trade surplus with the EU ticked up in the first two months of the year 1/ https://t.co/uWb594zrUq
Well, China isn't going to dip into its strategic reserves to help supply the rest of the world ... 1/2
1/5 Where Is the Demand Destruction? tl:dr - Asia because they are reliant on Middle Eastern Crude oil, and it is now over $150/barrel. This is keeping (for now) the American and European grades "only" ~$100. (% gain since the war) https://t.co/A6Rk6TjszH
"Does anyone really care if central banks raise or lower interest rates by 25 basis points, when the US president can send entire economies into a tailspin with a post on Truth Social?" Coppola Comment, 10th March. https://t.co/cCBaBOBPfB
February’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released. Over the past year, the PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 3.4%/yr. As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/XFlfmOdN5q
Incredibly important episode with @BobEUnlimited where we deep dive into how oil shocks impact the economy and how central banks react. This is the ultimate playbook
US producer price inflation ex-food and energy came in at the fastest pace since January 2025 for the month of February, before the oil price shock. It's going to be very hard for this Fed to signal rate cuts ahead...
Inflation Just EXPLODED 🔥 Does the Fed Have a Crisis on its Hands? Stocks crashed. Gold collapsed. Dollar soared Fed meets TODAY - and this one number could change everything for 2026👇 Follow for updates $SPY $QQQ $DIA $GLD $DXY $USDJPY $ES...
Wars are inflationary - and rising oil, yields & dollar are the play. Not metals right now, as warned to clients. #Gold #Silver Wholesale inflation comes in hot for February with producer prices rising 3.4%, the biggest jump in a...
Dana Stroul, former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East: “It does not appear that President Trump and his inner circle fully grasped the escalation ladder and range of Iranian retaliation actions" An understatement if I've ever heard one....
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM
Can China still maintain good relations with Gulf states and Iran as fighting escalates? Iranian strikes on neighbouring states in response to US and Israeli attacks highlight how difficult Beijing’s balancing act has become https://t.co/nw8sJ9lHjm
The US economy is losing momentum. In January, consumer spending slowed sharply to a crawl of 1.56% annualized. TRUMP’S WAR ON IRAN PROMISES MORE ECONOMIC DAMAGE. https://t.co/sjumYo1FBt
