Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The latest Consumer Price Index showed a modest 0.3% monthly increase, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.2%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious stance, warning against premature rate cuts. The data sparked a 1.2% pullback in the S&P 500 as investors digested the mixed signals. Meanwhile, niche markets such as oral‑health, skin, diet and fitness are being re‑evaluated for their growth timelines.
Reserves shouldn’t be for cushioning prices at this point… you may never know with the madmen bombing everything in the Middle East, there may be no fuel coming in at all… the reserves are for such times…. If it was...
UK employment data show a softening labour market, with payroll jobs falling by 49,000 in February and vacancies slipping to 721,000, the lowest level in recent months. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.2% despite the job losses. Wage growth...
Emerging markets, home to 87% of the global population and projected to generate 60% of world GDP by 2026, are vastly under‑represented in international equity indices, creating a structural allocation gap. VanEck leverages this gap with $8.1 billion in EM assets,...
I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual...
George Monbiot argues that Western interventions in Iran, beginning with the 1953 oil‑driven coup, illustrate how fossil‑fuel greed fuels geopolitical conflict. He links that historic struggle to today’s climate emergency, noting that oil profits sustain wars, authoritarian regimes, and climate...
India is spearheading a WTO proposal to slash cross‑border remittance fees that currently eat 5‑6% of transaction values. The initiative targets regulatory and technical barriers, aiming to bring costs below the UN Sustainable Development Goal of 3% by 2030. Backed...
A new VoxEU column by Jiang, Lustig, Van Nieuwerburgh and Xiaolan examines three centuries of U.S. and U.K. war and pandemic episodes. Their analysis shows that sovereign bonds, traditionally viewed as safe havens, have repeatedly suffered large real‑term losses during...
The five‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 2.66%, marking a 0.26‑percentage‑point increase since the onset of the war. The rise is captured alongside the DKW model’s inflation expectations, both plotted against the Treasury spread. A parallel chart links...
IMF economists published a paper quantifying how shipping delays translate into consumer price inflation. By constructing a port‑to‑port shipping time index from AIS maritime data and linking it to granular trade and price information, they find that a 100‑hour delay...
Takeaways from the March Fed meeting: • The era of 'easy' cuts could be over. Last year's were a recalibration; the next ones have to be earned with better inflation data or downside risks being realized. • The dots weren't as hawkish...
Checkonchain announced a new interview series with The Bitcoin Layer, featuring a split discussion between macro analyst Nik Bhatia and on‑chain specialist James. Nik will dissect current liquidity, the US‑Iran conflict, oil prices, and dollar strength, while James will evaluate...
Indonesia’s once‑large demographic dividend is nearing its end as the youth population peaks around 2030 and begins to shrink. While the working‑age cohort will still grow to over 200 million by 2045, manufacturing’s contribution to GDP has stalled, exposing a mismatch...
Trump’s tariffs aren’t just numbers—they’re hitting American families in their wallets, raising prices, and forcing businesses to close.
🇨🇭 Stronger verbal intervention language from the SNB: "the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased". https://t.co/yuDHGc7oUG https://t.co/wcrzVudyN7
Gold is forming a double‑top pattern despite strong support levels, prompting questions about its safe‑haven reliability. The article argues that gold’s protective role is linked to hedging against currency debasement, not crisis‑driven risk aversion. In market turmoil, liquidity dries up,...
"Although President Donald Trump says he has 'destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military Capability', the 0% that remains is playing havoc with the global economy by choking off 10-15% of its oil supply." https://t.co/h5NKTbG7R8
Sorry it should be Pakistan, India, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Thailand, South Korea and Japan. By volume, China imports the most from Qatar but share of total is also very high so rather exposed.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the headline unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in February, up from 4.1% in January, even as 48,900 jobs were added. Monthly hours worked slipped 0.2%, hinting that the job gains may be superficial....
US national debt just hit ~$39T fueling fiat debasement fears. Gold's parabolic run to $5,000+/oz & silver to $120+/oz? Classic safe-haven hedge against exploding debt, uncertainty, central bank buying & weak dollar. $gld $slv https://t.co/IcA8Eo0nGL
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2% target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
Wholesale inflation accelerated in February, with the Producer Price Index rising 0.7% month‑over‑month, surpassing the 0.3% consensus. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, increased 0.5% m/m and 3.9% year‑over‑year, indicating persistent underlying price pressure. Finished‑goods prices jumped 1.0%...
European gas prices surge 30% after Qatar said the world’s largest LNG export plant was damaged in an Iranian attack (Still TTF futures are far from the record highs of 2022) https://t.co/FC5b6KjHpJ
There's no way that shortly after tweeting this, the admin would destroy international confidence in the reliability of the U.S. as an energy exporter by restricting oil exports? Right?
President Donald Trump will travel to Beijing from March 31 to April 2, the first U.S. presidential visit since 2017. A Supreme Court ruling that invalidated his broad emergency‑tariff authority removes a key leverage tool, giving President Xi Jinping stronger bargaining power...
Powell says the economy is strong and inflation will moderate. The stock market tanked anyway. The Fed may be trapped between geopolitical shocks and economic reality. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/z9r6WCt1RC
That's a bad/first echelon take. There is a much larger picture. China is the big loser in their grand strategy plans: https://t.co/usYe48iDIM
Israel launched an airstrike on Iran’s South Pars gasfield, a hub that generates roughly 20% of the nation’s electricity. Tehran retaliated by threatening attacks on oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Gulf region. The exchange is part of a broader...
Really? Name one start-up think tank that analyzes the latest twist and turns in China's fx policy with any depth. I would humbly submit that this blog is at the analytical frontier, ahead of what most of...
Lots of chatter in the oil market about whether a Saudi refinery in the Red Sea was attacked or not. One thing, however, appears clear: crude loadings at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz continue as normal, with 4 tankers getting their...
New Zealand’s fourth‑quarter GDP expanded only 0.2% quarter‑on‑quarter, missing the 0.4% consensus, while annual growth held at 1.3% year‑on‑year, below the 1.7% forecast. Both production‑based (0.2% q/q) and expenditure‑based (0.1% q/q) measures signalled a sharp slowdown in domestic demand. The weaker...
Container port congestion eases after initial Iran shock Initial disruption to container supply chains from the Middle East crisis appears to have eased but rates remain elevated. https://t.co/fvMVOw29Pz
OUT NOW - how @BobEUnlimited sees it: - the repricing of the oil shock into markets is "just getting started" - higher inflation or lower growth, BOTH scenarios are bad for stocks Apple https://t.co/tA37rAtLtM Spotify https://t.co/wRcaaAtWld YouTube https://t.co/RDM5IJfiVx https://t.co/0Zt9BALTn7
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50‑3.75% and, via the latest dot‑plot, signaled only a single 25‑basis‑point cut for 2026 and another in 2027. The announcement sent the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down between 1.3% and...
Iran has successfully broken through Qatari air defenses for the second day in a row, this time striking the globally significant Ras Laffan energy complex. The strikes come after Iran’s own natural gas processing plants along the shared North Dome/South Pars...
Participants at the FOMC meeting rounded the wagons around Powell at a difficult moment for Fed independence. What looked like a dovish pause on the surface had hawkish undertones. Risks to meeting participants forecasts were to the downside on growth,...
Ahmed Charai argues that Iran has been a strategic threat to the United States since the 1979 revolution, driven by its pursuit of regional hegemony and asymmetric capabilities. He highlights Tehran’s expanding ballistic‑missile inventory, its accelerated nuclear enrichment, and its...
This is a remarkable chart. Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions. Chart by @thierryborgeat https://t.co/GpMNhNl06Y
Demand destruction started in Asia and spreading to Egypt. The only way this equation will square when supply is short is for demand to fall. Prices higher & demand falling means growth will be a challenge. The crisis will move from...
Mortgage rates rebounded Wednesday, climbing to the highest levels seen in several months after three rapid repricings. A stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index lifted inflation expectations, while a $6 jump in crude oil pushed bond yields higher. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s...
Since our January 13th macro memo, our top weighted pick BWET has more than tripled (and seems set to go even higher). Today, we released to subscribers a new list of names that have yet to reprice as violently in...
Turning Iran into Yemen isn't the strategic victory some people may expect if Red Sea shipping is anything to go by.
The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing headline inflation of 1.8% and a softening core CPI. Governor Tiff Macklem repeatedly emphasized uncertainty, flagging dual‑shock risks from higher oil prices and the Iran conflict alongside volatile...
Let me be your Fed whisperer. What the Fed decided, what we can infer about it's next steps, how Iran and tariffs factored in, and what it all means for you. https://t.co/3JC756KIAH
Qatars industrial complex housing the world’s largest LNG export plant suffered “extensive damage” after an Iranian missile strike 🇶🇦 ⚠️ The plant provides 20% of global LNG supply, and was shut earlier this month. But a delayed restart (due to...
Ahead of the Two Sessions, President Xi released a new collection of speeches emphasizing a "correct view of political performance," signaling a shift away from the GDP‑centric evaluation that has driven China’s bureaucracy for decades. Xi now expects officials to...
In my latest @ColumbiaUEnergy Energy Explained blog post, Neelesh Nerurkar & I argue that restricting US oil exports, once again reportedly being discussed in DC, would backfire—offering little relief to US consumers while imposing more significant economic and geopolitical costs
Fed Chair Jay Powell fired a warning shot today, reminding the White House that he holds some pretty important cards. Yes, it's drama, melodrama and soap opera. But it also really matters. And I admire how Powell has handled himself here....
If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will...
Not looking good. Crude exports down between 25% and 67% from the Middle East, depending on country
