Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Sri Lanka: FDI Is on the Rise
Sri Lanka’s Board of Investment reported a 72% jump in 2025 foreign direct investment, topping $1.06 billion for the first time. Greenfield projects surged, accounting for 13% of total FDI with 24 new ventures worth $134 million. The inflow is led by Singapore, India and France, and is concentrated in manufacturing (46%), port development (26%) and tourism (11%). Policy reforms—including a reduced $250,000 investment floor and generous tax incentives—are underpinning the rebound after the 2022 crisis and the 2025 Cyclone Ditwah disaster.
Bassett Miscalculates: US Shale Peaked, Oversupply Looms
Bassett’s math doesn’t add up on several fronts: U.S. shale oil production has peaked for now, the increase in U.S. crude deliveries is the result of large withdrawals from the U.S. SPR, and the announced increase in the OPEC+ group...
EU SMEs Hit 17 Billion Euros in Amazon Exports
More than 100,000 European Union SMEs used Amazon as a sales channel in 2025, pushing total Amazon sales to over €40 bn ($43.6 bn) and generating €17 bn ($18.5 bn) in cross‑border transactions—€2 bn ($2.2 bn) higher than the previous year. About 85% of those sellers...
Ottawa Unveils $1.5-billion Package to Counter U.S. Tariffs
Ottawa announced a $1.5 billion CAD (≈$1.1 billion USD) package to shield Canadian firms from recent U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper. The plan includes a new $1 billion CAD (≈$730 million USD) financing program through the Business Development Bank of Canada and...
War-Driven Energy Shock Makes Case for More Alternative Fuels
Bunker fuel prices have surged 70% since the Middle East conflict, with very low sulfur fuel oil climbing to over $930 per metric ton. The International Maritime Organization’s Marine Environment Protection Committee concluded its latest session on a Net‑Zero Framework...
EU Aims to Wean Itself Off of American Hyperscalers, Commits €180 Million for European Cloud Providers
The European Union has pledged €180 million (about $196 million) over six years to develop sovereign cloud services, aiming to lessen dependence on U.S. hyperscalers. Funding will be distributed among four consortia—Post Telecom with CleverCloud and OVHcloud, STACKIT, Scaleway, and Proximus with...
Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Quarterly Refunding, Confidence, And More Earnings
This week’s economic calendar is dominated by the U.S. April jobs report, projected to show 75,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. Complementary data include the ADP employment estimate, JOLTS job‑openings, ISM services, and the University of Michigan...
The Consensus on China’s Economy Is Strong—And Wrong
Arvind Subramanian argues that the prevailing view of China’s economy— that it sacrifices domestic consumers for export‑driven growth— is fundamentally flawed. He notes that Chinese households have seen living‑standard gains faster than any other nation in recorded history. While China’s...
Geopolitical Tensions and Tariffs Fuel Mixed Market Outlook
Markets are mixed this morning and here's why it matters 👇 Iran allegedly shot at US ships overnight. US denies damage but the message is clear, tensions are escalating, not cooling. Oil popped, then faded. Dow down, NASDAQ up, S&P flat. Add...
SOFR Shows Near‑Zero Rate Cuts as Hidden Stimulus Fuels Growth
As of today, SOFR curve is pricing in ~ 8 bps of cuts in 2027 and ~2 bps of cuts in 2028. Cuts have finally been priced out as there is very little basis for them. Policymakers are using more...
Mercosur FTA Enters Force Eight Months Before the EUDR Roll Out
The EU‑Mercosur free‑trade agreement entered provisional force after more than two decades of talks, allowing Brazilian soy, beef, coffee, cocoa and forest products to flow into Europe. This activation occurs eight months before the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) takes effect...
‘A Shock to the System’: Roughly $300 Billion in U.S. Imports Changed Country of Origin Last Year
The Kearney 2026 Reshoring Index reveals that roughly $300 billion of U.S. imports switched country of origin between 2024 and 2025. Direct imports from mainland China fell by almost one‑third, costing the United States $135 billion, while Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and other...
Global Accountants Hold Grim Outlook on the Economy
Accountants worldwide reported a Confidence Index of -39.5 in Q1 2026, the third‑lowest reading since the ACCA‑IMA survey began in 2011 and only slightly better than the -38.8 recorded a year earlier. The index fell sharply from -28.9 in Q4 2025, while...
What Orban’s 16-Year China Experiment Reveals About Europe
Viktor Orban’s defeat in the 2026 election ends a 16‑year China experiment that left Hungary as the EU’s top recipient of Chinese investment – about $3.4 bn in 2024, or 31 % of all Chinese FDI in Europe. The “Eastern Opening” created a...
It Will Take More Than Tariffs to Bring Back US Textile Manufacturing, Industry Insiders Say
In April 2025 President Trump imposed double‑digit tariffs on a broad range of trading partners to spark a reshoring boom in U.S. textiles, but the IEEPA tariff regime was rolled back a year later with little impact on domestic output....
China Turns to Regulatory Easing as Banking Pressures Mount
China is intensifying regulatory easing to support its strained banking sector after a ¥300 billion ($44 billion) capital injection announced in March. Policymakers are considering loosening shareholding limits and encouraging perpetual bonds to broaden equity sources, especially for smaller regional banks. The...
Wall Street Drops as Middle East Tensions Escalate, Tyson Foods Dips 2.2%, eBay Jumps 5.6%
U.S. equity markets fell on May 4, 2026 as Middle East tensions spiked, with the Dow down 0.17%, the S&P 500 off 0.02% and the Nasdaq slipping 0.01%. Brent crude surged to $111.31 a barrel, briefly touching $114, after Iran...
Shipping Lines Skeptical of Trump's Plan to Help Trapped Hormuz Vessels
President Donald Trump unveiled “Project Freedom” on May 3, promising U.S. Navy escorts for vessels trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping firms, however, say the plan lacks operational details and coordination with Iran, raising fears of renewed hostilities. BIMCO and...
Japan Bond Yields Surge as Inflation Fears Grow
Japanese 10‑year government bond yields jumped to about 2.44%, the highest level in nearly 30 years, as core inflation accelerated to 1.8% in March and geopolitical tensions kept energy prices high. The Bank of Japan has kept its policy rate...
Daily Memo: European Leaders Gather in Yerevan
European leaders convened in Yerevan, Armenia, for the European Political Community (EPC) summit on Monday. The EPC, launched in 2022 by French President Emmanuel Macron, brings together 30 European nations and partner states such as Ukraine, Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan....
Chinese Electric Vehicle Exports Rise Amid the Oil Crisis, Posing a Dilemma for Importing Countries
Chinese electric‑vehicle exports surged to record levels in 2025 and continued rising through March 2026, driven by high oil prices from the Iran war. Canada has approved the entry of 49,000 Chinese EVs at a 6.1% tariff, while Chinese automakers...
Canada Giving $1.1 Billion to Firms Hit by US Metal Tariffs
Canada announced a C$1.5 billion ($1.1 billion) aid package to help firms hurt by the United States’ new metal‑tariff regime. In early April, the Trump administration replaced a 50% tariff on metal content with a 25% surcharge on the total value of...
The Contradictions Shaping Japan’s Russia Policy
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Japan has dramatically reshaped its security posture, pledging to nearly double its defense budget, acquire long‑range strike missiles and entertain lethal‑weapon exports. At the same time, Tokyo has kept importing LNG and oil...
US Butane Exports Hit All-Time High in April: Kpler
U.S. butane exports surged to an all‑time high of 689,000 barrels per day (1.9 million tonnes) in April, driven by Asian buyers replacing Middle‑East output lost to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. India led the demand, taking 247,000 tonnes, while Morocco,...
China Thinks America Is Declining but Still Uniquely Dangerous
Chinese scholars in Beijing released a sarcastic report that thanks President Donald Trump for exposing what they call America’s “imperial twilight.” The paper argues that Trump’s policies have driven U.S. allies away, increased economic pressure on China, and highlighted a...
ADB Launches $1.02 Bn Minerals-to-Manufacturing Financing Facility for Asia
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) unveiled a Critical Minerals‑to‑Manufacturing Financing Partnership Facility backed by $20 million from Japan, $1.6 million from the United Kingdom and $500 million memoranda from Korea Eximbank and K‑SURE. The platform aims to move Asian economies from raw‑material exporters...
Can Trump’s “Project Freedom” Reopen Hormuz?
The U.S. has launched “Project Freedom,” a naval initiative aimed at re‑establishing commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after recent Iranian disruptions. While the operation includes carrier strike groups and escort vessels, the strait is not yet fully reopened...
IMF Warns Angola It Could Reach Debt Ceiling
The International Monetary Fund warned that Angola’s public debt will reach its legal ceiling within the next few years. The IMF advises the government to channel an anticipated windfall from oil prices above $100 a barrel into debt reduction and...
Daybreak May 4: U.S.-EU Trade Tensions Flare – Again
President Donald Trump announced on X that he will raise U.S. tariffs on European cars and trucks from 15% to 25% after accusing the EU of not honoring the 2020 trade deal. The EU Parliament’s trade committee condemned the move...
Instability Defines Global Economy; Diversify Reserves, Embrace Gold
h/t to my friend @EconguyRosie From Adam Glapinski last week, the governor of the National Bank of Poland: “Recent market developments, driven by the instability in the Middle East, have reinforced our view that instability has become the defining feature of...
US‑Iran Clash Forces China Into Unexpected Mediation
US starts Iran war on its own. No help. Now incredible maritime mess in Strait. Wants help. Now from China. As China ignores US sanctions. Trump-Xi meeting should be interesting. Will there be more trade supply chain upheaval?
Nigeria's Dollar GDP Jumps 22% to $307 Bn in 2025 on Strong Output and Firmer Naira
Nigeria’s dollar‑denominated GDP expanded 22% in 2025 to roughly $307 bn, propelled by an 18.4% rise in nominal output and a 3% appreciation of the naira. The surge places the country above the $300 bn threshold and makes it the biggest contributor...
U.S.-China Trade Shifts: ASEAN Rise, Tariffs Reshape Supply Chains
NY Fed/Liberty Street Economics: In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed? Trade Asean shifts. Tariffs. Finished goods. Upstream supply chain. What is real? Temporary? Or not?
Stock Peaks Mask Real Costs of US‑Iran Conflict
My article covering market conditions, themes and top events this week: Reconciling Record Stock Market Highs to Tangible US-Iran War Costs https://t.co/Mx7W91Ke9C https://t.co/UaQC76ewvR
Bank of Ghana’s $1.25 Bn Loss Triggers Parliamentary Fight Over Policy Solvency and Gold Gains
The Bank of Ghana posted an audited loss of GH¢15.6 bn (about $1.25 bn) for 2025, a figure that the opposition’s minority caucus says masks a far larger ‘policy insolvency’. The ruling majority rebuts, insisting the accounts are accurate and that the...
EU Warns of Response to Trump's Car Tariffs, Urges Caution
EU vows action if Trump adopts car tariffs, but urges restraint https://t.co/yOQoGgg9ak via @europressos @KowalczeKamil @NickHeubeck https://t.co/7Y8OCu5cqr
Rule of Law Fuels US’s Cheap Debt Advantage
Latest episode by @baselinescene and Gary Gensler on their "Power and Consequences" podcast on the importance of rule of law and institutions that underpin the exorbitant privilege of the US, i.e. our ability to issue debt cheaply. An absolute must...
Azerbaijan Opposition Leader Urges West to Leverage Energy Ties Amid Crackdown
Ali Karimli, the jailed leader of Azerbaijan’s opposition, appealed to Western trading partners, especially the UK, to press Baku over its political repression. He warned that the regime’s crackdown threatens the country’s energy‑rich economy, which supplies roughly half of its...
Detroit Automakers Blame US‑Israeli War for $5 B Loss
Detroit automakers claim that the US-Israeli war in Iran is set to cost them $5 BILLION due to commodity price increases. THE AUTOMAKERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/FtDCfe7g8G
Trump May Falsely Claim Hormuz Open, Misleading Many
There will come a day soon, when Trump will declare that the Strait of Hormuz is actually fully open and ships are transiting like before the war, when in fact, nothing will have changed. Some in the world may continue to...
Bond Traders Focus on Treasury's 3‑Month Funding Plan, Fed Speeches and May Jobs Data
U.S. bond traders are concentrating on the Treasury Department’s upcoming three‑month borrowing plan, a series of Federal Reserve speeches and the May jobs report, with yields near the top of their recent range. The market’s focus reflects concerns over inflation,...
Dubai's Economy Crumbles as War Impact Surfaces
All of those 'Dubai is a paradise unaffected by the war' tweets have disappeared, as its economy is decimated.
Trump’s Gulf Blockade Turns Allies Into Adversaries
My take on Pres. Trump turning FRIENDS in the Gulf into ENEMIES with @MarioNawfal: "With the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council can no longer export their oil. As a result, the US blockade is...
Treasury Blockade on Iran Pushes Brent Crude Over $120, Saps U.S. Market Gains
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expanded economic blockade on Iran, a move that lifted Brent crude to roughly $120 per barrel. The surge in oil prices weighed on U.S. energy stocks and pulled broader market sentiment lower, underscoring...
Net Negative Migration Threatens U.S. Workforce and Growth
"Why 'net negative migration' could spell bad news for the U.S. economy The U.S. is on track to lose more immigrants than it gains in 2026. That means fewer workers paying taxes, building homes, growing food, and caring for an aging...
Tariffs, War, and Anger Spark Massive Aluminum Self‑Sabotage
Sky-high aluminum tariffs + a war that knocks out Middle Eastern aluminum supplies + pissing off one of the world's largest aluminum suppliers (and your nextdoor neighbor) = inarguably one of the biggest industrial own-goals in recent memory https://t.co/dgPngPBWuE
US Capital Inflows Have Doubled Since 2018 Despite Predictions
Luke has been saying this trend would end since 2018. And during that time the global capital the US has sucked into its capital markets has...doubled. https://t.co/f1wrZt6C6Q
India Accelerates Trade Liberalization with New FTAs and Tariff Cuts
"India this week signed the latest in what’s been a run of rapid-fire free trade agreements.... India also has unilaterally cut tariffs on some key inputs and rolled back QCOs in sectors including steel, textiles and chemicals." https://t.co/AVxgDPYywi https://t.co/oZpPAr08RK
Morning Hormuz Updates Require Coffee First
every morning we wake up and check the latest news from the Strait of Hormuz best not to attempt this feat before you've had your first coffee https://t.co/QUiFormLeI
US Blockade Proves More Theater Than Effective Operation
The US blockade is a sieve. Another Iranian tanker has gotten through If it were one, it would be noise But it seems to be more the signal The blockade is serious theater but not a serious operation https://t.co/Tt24Zz0DYp