Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Oil prices swung sharply this week as escalating war risk in the Middle East collided with a series of emergency supply measures. WTI fell to $94.13, down 3.98%, after traders weighed tanker delays in the Strait of Hormuz against strong U.S. production and potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases. The United States signaled additional releases, sanctions relief on Iranian cargoes and a waiver for Russian oil, adding barrels to the market. These policy actions helped curb the war‑driven premium, prompting a broad sell‑off on Thursday.
The U.S. dollar posted mixed moves, gaining against the yen and won while slipping versus the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose five basis points, outpacing modest increases in Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Germany, while all four...
10 Friday AM Reads -Finance Bros to Tech Bros: Don't Mess With My Bloomberg Terminal -Bond Traders No Longer Price In Any Chance of Fed Cut in 2026 -Demand destruction has begun -Trump Wants Powell Out. Powell Is Digging In -Concierge Nation: Welcome to White-Glove...
Air cargo backlogs are mounting as Middle East airspace closures have stripped roughly 20% of global air‑freight capacity, equivalent to over 500,000 tonnes. Qatar Airways Cargo has resumed limited freighter services under a temporary authorisation, while other regional carriers operate...
America’s foreign policy toward Southeast Asia under Trump has been: 1. Slap them with the some of the highest tariff rates in the world 2. Launch Section 301 investigations of their trade practices 3. Create a global energy and commodities crisis that...
Ukraine has deployed interceptor units to five Middle Eastern countries to protect critical and civilian infrastructure from missile threats. The move was announced by Security Council Secretary Rustem Umerov after a regional visit, emphasizing an immediate operational presence. Kyiv is...
Sailors in a WeChat group reported that the bulk carrier "Ocean Pretty," sailing under a Barbadian flag, was struck by gunfire and rocket‑launcher fire while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The crew said no one was injured, but...
The Iran war has so far left the US economy largely intact, with the Atlanta Fed nowcasting a 2.1% annualized Q1 GDP rise and the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index at 2.6%, suggesting stable activity through mid‑March. While global oil...
A U.S. Court of International Trade order mandated Customs and Border Protection to refund tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. CBP’s filing on March 19 reveals its new Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system is...
In this episode, host Scott Yalloway recounts his surreal experience at the Vanity Fair Oscars after‑party before diving into a focused interview with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. Yardeni explains why his team raised the probability of a U.S....
AI Productivity Stolen By Inflation 1. AI expands the supply of goods and services. That should mean lower prices for you—a pure win. 2. But that win gets stolen. The system prints more money, inflating prices to "offset" the natural drop....
Israel shut access to Jerusalem’s Al‑Aqsa Mosque and other holy sites amid the Israel‑Iran war, forcing Eid worshippers to pray at the city gates. The closure, imposed for security reasons, marks the first time the mosque has been barred during...
$USD was bought aggressively on a hawkish read of Powell's press conference on Wed and was sold harder yesterday in what seems to be an overreaction to the ECB and BOE. It has come back bid. Who wants...
The Indian government launched the Resilience & Logistics Intervention for Export Facilitation (RELIEF) scheme, allocating Rs 497 crore (US $53 million) to shield exporters from Middle‑East conflict‑driven disruptions. The program, administered by the Export Credit Guarantee Corporation, offers extended export obligations, stable insurance premiums,...
A US‑led air and naval campaign targeting Iranian forces aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil conduit, prompting heightened market volatility. Oil prices have swung as traders balance expectations of increased output against the risk of prolonged...
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is rolling out a vetting and registration system to manage ship transits through a newly‑established safe corridor in the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels must disclose ownership and cargo details in advance, and at least nine...
The episode examines how recent geopolitical tensions are driving a fresh surge in energy prices, with the US and allies pledging to boost supply while Qatar reports that 17% of its gas output has been knocked offline by airstrikes, potentially...
At the WTO ministerial in Yaounde, trade ministers could not agree on a reform roadmap, prompting the European Union to consider a parallel track with CPTPP members. Swedish Trade Minister Benjamin Dousa warned that failure would drive the EU toward...
Seven months after the historic Alaska summit, the United States issued a 30‑day waiver permitting limited sales of sanctioned Russian crude, a move aimed at offsetting oil shortages caused by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The waiver signals...
The Trump administration is reportedly weighing a plan to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil export hub, in order to pressure Tehran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal, cited by Axios from four informed...
Muqtedar Khan challenges Shashi Tharoor’s defence of India’s diplomatic silence on the West Asian war, arguing that quietism erodes India’s credibility and strategic autonomy. He cites past instances where silence cost India, from the 1956 Hungary crisis to recent maritime...
Chinese Vice President Han Zheng will travel to Kenya, South Africa and Seychelles from March 22 to 30, at the invitation of Kenya Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and his counterparts. The high‑level tour is framed as a key exchange to...
The UN Security Council issued a resolution condemning Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, labeling them a breach of international law. The article argues the vote is one‑sided, focusing on protecting Gulf oil flows and...
China Railway reported a 25% year‑on‑year increase in TEU volume on the China‑Europe rail corridor during January‑February 2026, moving 352,100 TEU across 3,501 train trips. Train frequency rose 31.7% compared with the same period last year, reversing a 2025 decline...
In 2025 the United States imposed sweeping import tariffs intended to shield domestic producers. The measures inadvertently lowered costs for foreign rivals, creating a mixed‑bag of winners and losers among U.S. firms. Small businesses, often highlighted in political rhetoric, bore...
In this episode of At Any Rate, JP Morgan’s global rate strategy team breaks down recent dynamics in developed‑market (DM) swap spreads, highlighting how central‑bank policy expectations and technical factors drive the curves across the US, Germany, the UK, Japan and...
And the sell side rolls in. April is punchy; I doubt they will see anything in the March HICP that scares them relative to the baseline. But the message is clear. Unless growth collapses they will hike, I think justifying...
Really recommend this interview between @freddiesayers and energy expert @HelenHet20 where Helen lays out why markets may be wrong in assuming things will return to normal once Iran is neutralised. The chaos may be the strategy. And whichever way you...
Japan and the United States announced a $73 billion Japanese investment in U.S. energy infrastructure, including up to $40 billion for small modular reactors (SMRs) built by GE Vernova Hitachi in Tennessee and Alabama. Additional natural‑gas generation projects in Pennsylvania ($17 billion) and Texas ($16 billion)...
Glad to join leaders at last night’s Euro Summit in Brussels. We discussed the current economic situation in light of events in the Middle East, which has made the outlook significantly more uncertain. https://t.co/bHxScsvXzq
Bessent: U.S. May Allow Iran to Sell Oil in Order to Increase Supply https://t.co/cJQjJqRa54 #maritime #maritime-news
The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18, marking a third consecutive hold. Inflation slowed to 1.8% in February, still under the 2% target, while the labour market remains weak. The decision reflects caution amid...
Canada 5-year year yields... looking poised to move higher as they break to 14+ month highs... rate hikes on the horizon to battle inflationary pressures? https://t.co/3jtEuhVfkZ
PBOC set the $USD fix today at its lowest level since April 2023. Since the war began, $CNY is the fourth best EM currency, trailing HKD and two high yielders in Latam. YTD, CNY it has only been bested by...
Prices have surged but physical oil infrastructure damage remains limited & still some slack in system. For a disruption this large, prices eventually need to rise high enough to actually destroy demand—as parts of crude & product mkts are starting...
Markets are shrugging off Middle East tensions as oil disruptions prove less severe than feared. Iran's selective passage through Hormuz is easing supply concerns. 🟢 Open https://t.co/I5Gu8mRO2F
On the one hand, the US is considering lifting sanctions on Iran's oil. On the other, the US e is considering invading Kharg. It's one or the other. Either the US understands the MAD dynamic at play with energy flows...
Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise
This war needs an off-ramp. That isn't military escalation or just declaring "mission accomplished." Instead, it's an embargo of Iran's oil. That'll throw Iran into chaos and the upside for oil prices is limited given how much they've already risen... https://t.co/t20Z7S85OZ...
The swaps mkt discounted slightly more than BOE 3 hikes this year. Surely that is exaggerated. The mkt has 70 bp of ECB hikes discounted. Despite the hawks trying to outflank Lagarde's moderate tone, that too seems a...
How The Middle East Conflict Will Push Retail Prices Up And Consumers Into Retreat via @forbes https://t.co/vHxGN0OKET
Since 2019, bank lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) has grown by nearly 60% vs only about 20% to non-financial corporations. Divergence has widened since mid-2022 when corporate lending stagnated while NBFI lending continued to rise steadily https://t.co/QEUhoq4feU
The Draghi & Letta reports' diagnosis was stark: Europe is falling behind in productivity growth; Single Market remains fragmented; capital markets incomplete; innovation & scale financing insufficient. These are structural weaknesses, not cyclical ones. https://t.co/vne95qESQS
Key UK yield hits the highest level since 2008 as oil prices climb https://t.co/pWaz7E1WOL https://t.co/boVD8nEW6E
Makhlouf says an April ECB hike is possible if data signal there’s a need https://t.co/zEOl2Ko48A via @flacqua @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/IHW9dxYRHQ
By giving households direct access to central bank money in digital form, central bank digital currencies (CBDC) is frequently said to threaten bank deposits, disrupt credit creation, and shift seigniorage from commercial banks to the public sector. https://t.co/B04PPjhu5q
it's 6am. i'm drinking black coffee. a @tradingview alert just buzzed in my pocket and appeared on my screen to tell me the Canada 5-year yield just broke out to 14-month highs > ~3.1%... 🧐 cool. https://t.co/IHj3aa1dV0
Subtle but important point. The ECB's baseline incorporates nearly two rate hikes. The adverse and severe scenarios use the same assumptions, and thus may require more than two hikes to bring inflation back to target. Only makes things sligthly less...
JPM woke up this Friday morning and chose violence ... looking for back-to-back hikes from both the ECB and BOE.
US government policy helps Chinese state owned oil companies buy sanctioned Russian crude wasn't on my prediction list for this year. https://t.co/JFPLk4VSxF
