Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Former President Donald Trump asserted that the United States will not pursue a ceasefire with Iran, insisting on unconditional surrender while emphasizing the U.S. military’s abundant ammunition and troop levels. He suggested that China and Japan could play a role in easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and criticized the United Kingdom for a delayed response to the crisis. Trump also claimed the ongoing operation is weeks ahead of schedule and warned that oil prices could worsen if the situation escalates. The remarks reflect a hard‑line stance amid ongoing negotiations over a ceasefire and regional stability.
The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from its January peak. Is that a lot? Not at all. This is right in line with the median correction off an all-time high since the March 2009 low. We see a decline of this amount...
Iraq has instructed international oil companies operating in the country to curb output, invoking force majeure retroactively to March 3 because export routes through Basrah are effectively blocked. The loss of roughly 3.4 million barrels per day of export capacity follows a...
Gold prices posted their steepest weekly decline in over 14 years, tumbling 9.5% in the week to March 20. The slide was sparked by heightened uncertainty from the Iran‑Israel conflict, which paradoxically dampened gold’s safe‑haven appeal. A shifting Federal Reserve rate...
Indian spice exporters are confronting a sudden halt in US buyer outreach after the Iran war erupted, threatening a $500 million annual trade stream. The suspension of early‑year call‑ons has stalled order flow, while soaring freight, insurance and war‑risk surcharges inflate...
The IMF has been slow to deliver a comprehensive analysis of the Iran crisis and the de‑facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, despite its mandate to safeguard global financial stability. Standard IMF publications such as the World Economic Outlook...
Due to the war in Iran and the resulting inflationary effects, the market is now pricing in zero rate cuts from the Fed this year (in contrast to the previously forecast two rate cuts). Moreover, the market is now forecasting a...
Markets are pricing a more aggressive Bank of Canada tightening path, with traders betting on a cumulative 75 basis‑point increase by 2026 and a 25‑basis‑point hike as early as July. The central bank held its policy rate at 2.25% and...
US500 ( SPX ) At a crucial daily demand area. We have not seen these levels since late 2025. - Stagflation environment - Elevated OIL - From rate cuts to rate hikes - AI valuation concerns The whole macro narrative has changed within days. I...
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a short‑term general license allowing the purchase of Russian crude already on board vessels, effective March 12 through April 11. The waiver follows a similar 30‑day exemption for India and aims to dampen market turbulence caused...
The UK government is drafting contingency measures, including a 10 mph reduction on motorways, to curb oil demand as the Middle‑East conflict threatens global fuel supplies. The International Energy Agency has urged member states to adopt Covid‑style emergency actions such as...
Putting the fiscal cost of the Iran war in context. $200 billion > $194.9 billion, which means that Trump is planning on spending more on the Iran war than he took in with his tariffs which raised tons of revenue....
Thai market volatility has softened as traders price in the early stages of the Middle East conflict. The SET index traded within a 1,400‑1,450 point band, while petrochemical and upstream energy stocks posted the strongest gains. Power, beverage and healthcare...
The FTSE 100 wiped out its 2026 gains as the Iran‑Israel conflict rattled markets and UK borrowing surged to over £14 billion in February. Money markets now price three quarter‑point rate hikes this year, driven by inflation spikes from higher oil...
Consensus is shifting, and rightly so: This third week of the war has fueled a shift from a short-term energy disruption to long-term structural damage. With that, the broader fallout—also marked by the non-linear risks associated with tipping points and multiple equilibrium...
In this episode, hosts discuss the S&P 500 slipping below its 200‑day moving average, signaling a bearish long‑term trend, and note similar weakness across major indices, sectors, and fixed‑income markets. They highlight energy as the sole sector still posting gains...
India’s National Investigation Agency detained six Ukrainian nationals and a U.S. citizen for illegally entering Mizoram and allegedly liaising with Myanmar ethnic armed organizations. The agency claims the group sought to train insurgents and funnel European‑sourced weapons, including drones, to...
The numbers are clear: Middle East oil crisis is already 3x WORSE than the UNREALIZED FEAR in 2022 @Rory_Johnston explains: in April 2022 fear was 3 Million Barrel per day (mb/d) shut in for Russian Crude (DIDN'T HAPPEN). In 2026...
Per the WSJ US firms other than Microsoft and Apple paid at least $12 billion in corporate income tax to Ireland last year (Apply and Microsoft haven't reported yet, but both paid ~ $5b to Ireland in 2024 ... so...
The war between Israel and Iran has escalated into direct strikes on oil and gas infrastructure, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel. Missile attacks have damaged the South Pars gas field and...
Iran announced a $2 million fee for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and warned it could close the waterway, a move that threatens a chokepoint handling roughly one‑fifth of global oil trade. The announcement has triggered swift condemnation from the...
The episode examines how recent attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, sparked by the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran, are driving volatile oil and gas prices and threatening global supply chains. The International Energy Agency urges governments to cut demand by promoting...
Assuming the USS Boxer is heading to the Middle East, and considering that she only left San Diego two days ago, she won't be near the Persian Gulf until mid-April. If the reinforcements are intended to reopen the Strait of...
Critics say the Liberal government is exposing Inuit communities to Chinese surveillance and economic dependence through unchecked Arctic investments. A report by the China Strategic Risks Institute warns that Beijing is leveraging infrastructure deals to gain data access and influence...
Energy and materials sectors lead the S&P 500 with near‑28% and 10% year‑to‑date gains, while the broader market slips more than 3% amid a weakening dollar and heightened geopolitical risk. Vista Gold, a pre‑revenue gold miner, closed 2025 debt‑free, raised $42 million...
What does it all mean? Why are yields and Bitcoin higher while risk assets are down and the dollar is bid? I take you back to the correlation matrix (below). Is it all just technical or is there a larger...
If we are now about to enter a Central Bank rate rising period, it's worth considering we are in a very different place to the last rate rising period. Back a few years ago interest rates were artificially low and...
Headlines that the US is thinking about taking Kharg island are pushing up Brent (lhs) and causing stocks to tank (rhs). Taking Kharg doesn't reopen the Strait and could turn into a fiasco. Better to embargo Iranian oil and force...
Markets have turned. S&P down 5.4% YTD — all of that loss in the last two weeks. War premium showing up fast. Watch this space. https://t.co/D3wvQr7z9M
Business cycles have a way of repeating themselves, despite many feeling like this time is different. https://t.co/BhO6huMktT
3w into conflict, gas prices on higher trajectory than in 2022 (Ukraine invasion). WTI 1M/6M spread off peak inversion, so are implied vols for WTI. 2YR inflation expectations on similar trajectory as 2022. LT inflation exp not reacting much...
Yup. Market pricing in 2-3 rate hikes for ECB and BoE How many for the Fed?!
When government and private debt are this extreme, only one of these lines can rise. …... not the red one. https://t.co/YjKShRTMiy https://t.co/mOHRjorVpT
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
Bitcoin is a check and balance on inflation. When spending gets too far out of hand, capital moves to Bitcoin. Competition benefits customers, and this applies even in the market for money. In this way, Bitcoin will help preserve dollar dominance.
Is it reasonable to say that a long-term, structural decline in global oil demand would not necessarily translate into lower prices, and could plausibly turn into significantly higher prices in the future?
For anyone following the GPT policy prescriptions I updated the macro with war, supply shortages and 200B in new spend. Nothing surprising here but I'd note that the pathways were already narrow 3+ months ago. https://t.co/bSw5ZWEnsD
Euro area deficit with China rising again -- this time on higher imports as much as on lower exports 1/ https://t.co/MzIpVJR3sZ
Recession probabilities explained: 35% = I don't really believe it 40% = every economist's baseline number 50% = still don't believe it 60% = 25% 100% = 0% chance
This is exactly what James Gutman predicted on the latest episode of @EnergyEmpirePod. EVs are selling out in the top 50 emerging markets given the $250B “Marshall Plan” being rolled out by China. https://t.co/75BxCTbmpS
Great graphic of the spread of the Asian financial crisis from Bangkok in July 1997 to the rest of South East and East Asia … and Russia. Featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/rb45VTG9a5
CHINA ALREADY GOT ITS FIRST WIN FROM THE WAR IN IRAN In today's newsletter, I wrote about how the long term trend of countries reducing their oil imports by substituting them with Chinese tech is already accelerating since the start of...
In this regime, even “safe” carries beta: welcome to the era of the risk-full rate https://t.co/8SEao6GWwp
Lotta spilled milk around what central banks should do in the face of this oil shock. But the fact is what they are mandated to do is what matters.
Lower prices, lower yields, lower oil. Either that, or a new war in the Middle East. https://t.co/mnkr6zwlk9
Oh, oh. China. Rare earth exports increase. Fall to US. And the supply chains? The US-China trade deal? And the delayed Trump-Xi meeting?
I'm a big advocate for stabilization policies generally, but.... The more you try to play games to stave off fundamental price adjustments altogether, the nastier they can get as time goes by. Could end up adding more volatility than what you've...
inflation shows up on your screen much quicker than financial stability tremors and layoffs. hawk talk out of the gate is easy; hawk walk when UnE is up a percentage point and rising, not so much
