Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Offshore hedge funds now account for roughly three‑quarters of the world’s offshore pool and have amassed between $1.4 trillion and $1.85 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities in the Cayman Islands. At the same time, China’s U.S. debt holdings have slipped to their lowest level since 2008, reshaping the supply‑side of the U.S. Treasury market.
Why on earth aren't major media outlets asking this obvious question? The Trump administration just issued a sanctions waiver allowing 140 million barrels of Iranian oil currently at sea to be sold. Meanwhile, Iran's oil exports have surged before the...
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told Kyodo News that Tehran will discuss safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz with Japan and any nation that has not attacked Iran. He emphasized the strait remains open for non‑enemy vessels, while it...
Gulf oil producers are urging the United States to confront the Hormuz blockage directly, warning that temporary "oil‑on‑water" licences aid Iran while constraining regional exporters. They cite roughly 140 million barrels of Iranian crude stranded at sea and argue that without...
Depressing but important analysis from the @TheEconomist: The Iran war in a nutshell: America can’t reopen Hormuz, Iran can’t stop the airstrikes, & every escalation option is bad, explaining why there’s no clear path to a durable political solution —...
The United States has deployed Marine forces to the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with Iran and signaling a broader strategic shift. The narrow waterway, vital for global oil shipments, now faces heightened militarization that could disrupt worldwide energy markets....
Whereas the Iran war shock has barely budged inflation expectations and no more than mildly jolted expectations of monetary policy in the US, the same shock has completely transformed the outlook for many other central banks. More charts, graphs, and...
The escalation of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran has disrupted oil supplies, prompting a reassessment of U.S. interest‑rate expectations. Market participants now price a modest probability of a Fed rate hike, pushing the MOVE index higher and widening rate‑volatility...
The Capital Spectator’s Book Bits (21 March 2026) spotlights two new titles. Barry Eichengreen’s *Money Beyond Borders* examines the U.S. dollar’s more‑than‑10 % slide against major currencies since early 2025 and evaluates scenarios that could dethrone it, emphasizing domestic policy missteps. Gary A. Hoover’s...
The author revisits the prevailing belief that the 21st century will be dominated by China, drawing parallels to the 1980s hype around Japan. While most Western observers still view China as an unstoppable economic and geopolitical force, the writer now...
The article argues that macro forces now dominate equity performance, yet most investors shy away because timing cycles is notoriously difficult. Historical examples from Keynes to Warren Buffett illustrate repeated macro‑timing failures. Howard Marks’ calibrated, probabilistic approach is presented as...
SBI Research warns that an expanding West Asia conflict could reignite global inflation by disrupting energy markets, trade routes and supply chains. While the immediate price impact may be modest, prolonged hostilities risk broader macro‑economic fallout. India appears relatively insulated...
World Trade Organization ministers will convene next week to debate a long‑running reform agenda, yet the crucial issue of external transparency has been sidelined. Recent WTO reports, including a March 2026 facilitator paper, remain labeled “restricted” despite repeated calls for...
Good Morning from #Germany, where 10y govt bond yields have risen >3%, their highest level since 2011. The recent increase is driven disproportionately by higher long-term inflation expectations – meaning real 10y yields have fallen from 1.35% to 0.77%. The chart...
The Chartfest on 21 March 2026 highlighted a sharp escalation in global oil prices following the Middle‑East conflict, with benchmarks hitting record highs and strategic petroleum reserves under strain. Russia’s oil tax revenues surged as Urals prices peaked, while Qatar’s LNG exports...
People's Daily: "China and the US agreed to explore the establishment of working mechanisms to expand economic and trade cooperation, continue to make good use of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences,...
The US is removing sanctions from shadow fleet ships to ease energy prices while France increases seizures. Hard to tell how much of this is politically motivated.
In the third installment of the Irregular Warfare Initiative’s series, analysts Hamlet Yousef and Ioannis Koskinas dissect the geoeconomic dimensions of the ongoing Iran conflict. The discussion, moderated by Jackie Giunta, highlights how energy flows, maritime security and sanctions networks...
Markets have been the ultimate constraint on Trump. It was like that in April 2025 when China tariffs went to almost 150% and arguably also in January 2026 over Greenland. Markets are now very distressed. Trying to take Kharg Island...
Here’s the thing: wars have budget costs, and they have economic costs. The first shows up in government accounts. The second shows up as less national income. Spread across households, that’s roughly $2,000 to $5,000 per family. https://t.co/yrD2nUbrzW
Iran has effectively sealed the Strait of Hormuz, slashing daily oil‑tanker traffic by roughly 95% since early March 2026. The closure has pushed crude prices above $100 a barrel and disrupted about 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Despite...
So now @UANI and @FDD are strongly in favour of lifting sanctions on Iranian oil sales without conditionality
Norway’s central bank will boost transparency of its monetary policy decisions from next week, expediting the plan after a year of close scrutiny into the credibility of its communications https://t.co/CJDFluoCJ1 via @ottummelas https://t.co/pdSQh8A1U6
Global markets remain dominated by the West Asia conflict, keeping risk aversion high across asset classes. The Federal Reserve held policy rates steady, offering only modest guidance for 25‑basis‑point cuts in 2026 and 2027, and emphasized a data‑dependent stance. Elevated...
Four weeks ago I was a keynote speaker at Princeton's Annual JRCPPF Conference. The topic this year was "Debt, Deficits & Global Imbalances". For those who might be interested (and there were some brilliant presentations), this video provides the links. https://t.co/BhKUkeJVQb
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Israel is the “primary cause” of wars in the Middle East. He said that Israel is pushing the region into an “unprecedented crisis”. https://t.co/MO46l8Agto
Harish K. Ahuja, head of sustainability at NSE, urged retail investors to stay calm amid a 7‑10% global market correction tied to geopolitical tensions. He emphasized that India’s fundamentals—strong GDP growth, low inflation, and robust industrial activity—remain solid despite short‑term...
This @ProSyn column by @baselinescene is a must-read. Before he won the Nobel for economics in 2024, Simon was deeply involved in design and execution of the G7 price cap on Russia. Few other voices carry as much authority now...
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, Washington rejected a Swiss-style “debt brake” earlier this week. NO DEBT BRAKE = FISCAL INSANITY. https://t.co/Tw28jA4nUE
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew ₹35,475 crore from Indian equities this week, taking March’s cumulative outflow to ₹88,180 crore – the highest monthly net withdrawal recorded in 2026. The sell‑off accelerated after a Monday outflow of ₹10,827 crore and ended with a Friday dump...
New weekly commentary here: https://t.co/V6x7cI6LT8 War and market speculation of the policy response ripples through the capital markets. Central paradox: Markets seem optimistic about duration of war but sees many central banks being extremely aggressive. https://t.co/xpvqmxf8k7
Goehring & Rozencwajg's oil super-cycle has have been wrong for a decade The argument is disconnected from a debt-saturated, low-growth, war-fractured world Scarcity can spike price But it can also crush demand, trigger recession, & kill the bull case https://t.co/fOpvyVFTKH #Oil #OilMarkets #Energy #Macro #Recession...
Iran has signaled willingness to permit Japanese‑flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for global oil shipments. The offer follows phone talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Japanese officials amid heightened tensions from the...
The Chinese Century is now the conventional wisdom. Previous narratives of China's peak and decline proved premature. But I see some definite signs that China is growing weaker, and only a few people seem to be paying attention. https://t.co/PUBIvyJcaw
Despite the headlines, global container trade volumes are largely unaffected by the Iran War (CNY is the reason that China and Vietnam are down MoM). https://t.co/YplrKgSLTc
Larry Kuddown hosts Fox Business' "Kudlow" on March 20, delivering a 36‑minute episode that examines domestic and global economic policies. The program features real‑time market analysis, fiscal and monetary commentary, and interviews with industry experts. It airs on the Fox...
PCE, CPI & PPI were running hot even before the Iran war’s oil shock, writes @JohnFMauldin @DavidBahnsen says Feb jobs data was “surprisingly bad” Mauldin sees the familiar muddle-through story with AI capex, services & manufacturing I see an "unsurprisingly bad" macro https://t.co/EGIOgUMGxc #Inflation...
Catch my take at 11:30am on the impact of war on the British economy #skynews
The 10-year approaching 4.4% and then we get this "drop" from the president. Another FAFO moment? This coming week will be epic.
Former British Diplomat Alastair Crooke on US-Israeli attacks on Iran: "The wheels are coming off this whole thing. It's spiraling really out of control. And it increased enormously with the [recent] attack on the Iranian South Pars gas field... That was...
Goldman > The unprecedented US and Israeli coordinated attack on Iran has resulted in the largest energy supply disruption in history.
Caixin: "Major Chinese carmakers are setting ambitious overseas sales and localized production targets for 2026 to offset a cooling domestic market." https://t.co/P0EUxL3lEN
Caixin: "Driven by a regulatory crackdown on risk in the financial system, China's multitrillion-dollar trust industry is being forced to abandon its old, highly profitable model of funneling funds into non-standard debt for real estate projects and local governments." https://t.co/eN5eDafjR4
1/8 Caixin: "China’s fixed-asset investment (FAI) returned to growth in the first two months of this year, rising 1.8% year on year, beating expectations as infrastructure spending jumped." https://t.co/cCOIgPDXNn
I'm a little ambivalent about the Iran war. On the plus side, America needed to learn how to fight a modern war. And it'll make Trump unpopular. On the minus side it'll kill a bunch of people and hurt the global economy
The stock market reaches its November low and President Trump considers ending the Iran conflict. Hopefully this war will end soon, enough lives lost already. Any good news and the stock market will be off to the races. $NDX $SPX...
Rick Rieder of BlackRock told Unhedged. 👉 “This is one of the largest supply shocks we’ve seen in a generation, 👉markets have had to react quickly, 💥 when markets move quickly, they overreact.” https://t.co/RRf6LgSI91
🟥TRUMP’S SURPRISE IRAN OIL U-TURN: 30-Day Waiver Unlocks 140M Barrels: ▪️Will IT LOWER OIL PRICES? (ask your company to subscribe) Link: https://t.co/XUVxhDoQuD
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry "..headlines focus on price of oil at the pump, a deeper story lies in dislocation of energy markets and the global breakdown in the traditional distribution...
You're right about the big picture of thin margins, structural dependence & denial @ashokdadhwal196 But Hormuz is not merely “a chokepoint.” It is the central artery of the global economy. We knew that before things overshot so much #OilMarkets #Hormuz #Geopolitics...
