Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Traders now price a greater than 60% chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates by October, after the March meeting left the policy range unchanged. A surge in Brent crude above $109 per barrel has pushed 10‑year Treasury yields to roughly 4.37%, prompting a wave of equity outflows and a shift of capital into cash. Bitcoin slipped just under $70,000, mirroring the decline in gold and risk assets as tighter financial conditions dominate. The market’s focus now hinges on oil‑driven inflation data, the upcoming jobs report, and the Fed’s next policy signal.
The Trump administration issued a one‑month license that temporarily lifts sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea, freeing roughly 140 million barrels for global markets. The move is designed to ease soaring fuel prices as the Iran‑Israel conflict pushes crude higher,...
The outbreak of war in the Middle East is sending shockwaves through the global economy, prompting the first coordinated health check via business surveys across the United States and the euro zone. Bloomberg’s median forecast expects every purchasing managers index...
The New York Times on one of the major economic effects of the War: “At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began...
Analysis by the Open Source Centre traced four sanctioned vessels that have moved between 8 million and 11 million North Korean artillery rounds to Russia since September 2023. The ships—Angara, Maia‑1, Maria and Lady R—used deceptive AIS filings that listed South Korean ports while...
The article presents the Virtual Watch Tower (VWT) as a new, federated model for maritime and intermodal supply‑chain visibility, positioning it against proprietary control towers, state‑run platforms, and defence‑only networks. VWT treats situational awareness as a public good, using the...
President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum giving Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The deadline follows Iran’s closure of the waterway in response to the US‑Israel war on Iran, and Tehran warned it would...
Market strategist Ross Gerber warned that persistent inflation is dampening optimism for both equities and bonds. He observed a surge in selling pressure, indicating investors are turning more bearish. Gerber stressed that inflation is unlikely to subside soon, undermining the...
Why shouldn't the presumption be that they will just negotiate deals with Iran and accommodate the regime the United States flirted with trying to change? India, Japan, Pakistan, others are already negotiating Hormuz passage directly. Why not presume they will "clean...
The G7 foreign ministers declared they are prepared to take necessary steps to safeguard global energy supplies and secure key maritime routes, notably the Strait of Hormuz. They condemned Iran’s attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure and voiced support for...
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced another interest‑rate increase as inflation and cost‑of‑living pressures intensify, compounded by geopolitical risks from the war in Iran. Independent economist Nicki Hutley, featured in Guardian Australia’s “Full Story” podcast, argued the central bank should...
On March 20, Fox Business aired the latest episode of Maria Bartiromo’s Wall Street. The 20‑minute program gathered leading Wall Street analysts to dissect current economic trends and market outlooks. Highlights included commentary on inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and the...
Global liquidity, which peaked in the fall, is now on a downward trajectory, pushing markets into a risk‑off stance. Iranian geopolitical tensions and volatile oil prices have amplified investor anxiety, but the liquidity slowdown was already evident. Despite aggressive central‑bank...
Former Nepalese prime minister Baburam Bhattarai says the recent general election, which delivered a landslide victory to rapper‑turned‑politician Balendra Shah’s Rastriya Swatantra Party, marks a political reset for Nepal. He argues the new mandate offers a chance to revive India‑Nepal...
Irish rap group Kneecap joined an international aid convoy to Cuba, delivering 300 kg of humanitarian supplies and using their platform to denounce the U.S. embargo as collective punishment. The visit comes as Cuba’s power grid suffered a total blackout after...
Thanks to the oil shortages caused by the war with Iran, the US is now forced to buy Iranian oil and that money is then used by Iran to fund its war with the United States. 5D chess.
Britain announced that its sovereign bases on Cyprus will not be employed for offensive operations amid the escalating Iran crisis, a position reiterated by Prime Minister Keir Starmer during a call with President Nikos Christodoulides. The statement follows a Shahed‑type...
The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a bear‑flattening episode, where short‑term yields have risen faster than long‑term yields. Over the past three days the 2‑year yield jumped 23 basis points while the 10‑year climbed 18 basis points, widening the short‑term...
Zambia signed a debt‑restructuring deal with Italy that pushes repayment of a €94.6 million loan from 2027 to 2043. The agreement, reached under the G20 Common Framework, eases near‑term debt service and signals progress in Zambia’s broader sovereign‑debt programme.
US President Donald Trump's recent geopolitical moves—including the Iran conflict and renewed tariffs—are reverberating through the UK economy. Glenigan data shows the value of new construction projects fell by more than a third in the three months to February, with...
Operation ‘Rage Flip’ erupted in late March, exposing extreme price volatility as a chart‑driven rally flipped a steep decline into a rapid surge. Traders on the floor, including Stephen Walton, described the move as a herd‑culling event that overwhelmed typical...
Oil expert Stephen Schork on Brent & WTI prices & the war in Iran: "[The WTI contract] is the hope market. The Brent market is the real market that is pricing the real events going on, and that blowup [Brent...
Inflation surges due to oil shocks. None of the prior episodes had U.S. interest payments reach 5% of GDP. None. Expect inflation to surge again, with the Fed having to justify a rate cut. That is certainly not priced in markets today. https://t.co/W8K6vFstbd Great chart from...
Airlines are deploying Boeing’s 777X ultra‑long‑haul jets as geopolitical tensions make traditional great‑circle routes unreliable. The aircraft’s 18‑hour range enables nonstop links such as Singapore‑New York and opens new possibilities between Australia‑Europe and Southeast Asia‑North America. Closed Russian airspace and volatile Middle‑East corridors...
With the onset of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, my good friend Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, believes China’s onshore stocks are the top assets. CHINA = WINNER.
From fuel rationing in Sri Lanka to restaurant closures in India, flight cancellations in Thailand, and food and fertilizer shocks across Asia -- the ripple effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran are global. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/jD1WHbQj6T
Many commentators on Iran war have seemingly not thought any further ahead than “China is hurt most by Hormuz closing” Below is just one small example of why that view is so wrong 👇
"The risk of a hike might be rising but the risks of lots of cuts is rising too." - UBS
The most recent genuinely vicious counter trend rally I recall was March 2022, SPX broke the YTD downtrend that had formed, reclaimed the 200 day moving average and then kept going for another week. Genuinely seemed like we had torn...
When politicians quote war costs, they're usually giving you the Pentagon's grocery bill, not the real economic damage. Oil shocks, lost jobs, delayed investment - the true cost isn't billions, it's hundreds of billions. Always ask: what are they not counting? https://t.co/Q56IHqdfvB
The largest energy supply shock in history just hit as the entire global economy had been riding high on the most energy intensive tech ever (AI), @Rory_Johnston argues. "I hope I'm wrong." Apple🔊https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf https://t.co/OJPNLB003V
Trump claims that the US has “won” the war, and that Iran is “finished.” IF WE WON THE WAR, WHY ARE WE RUSHING THOUSANDS OF US TROOPS TO THE GULF? TRUMP = DELUSIONAL. https://t.co/g5aB73R1CU
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
1973 oil embargo: inflation went from 3.6% to 12.3%. Fed's current forecast for 2026: 2.7%. Brent is at $110. Up 54% in a month. Either this time is genuinely different, or the Fed is the most optimistic institution on earth. History doesn't care about...
Markets are too focused on the near-term challenges from higher oil prices. The real trade-off for investors is 4 to 6 weeks of instability, paying off 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains, and geopolitics. Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/ixJHl4Cw5f
The BBC reports that Iranian counter-attacks on US military bases in the Middle East have caused $800 MILLION in damage. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS COSTING AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/hxarqU3UlU
Bessent is trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through sanctions relief. 140M barrels of Iranian oil. A temporary lift. Geopolitical chess. If it works, oil falls. If it fails, $110 looks cheap. The Treasury Sec is now an oil trader. Welcome to...
How it feels watching the Iran War, Hormuz stoppage, and the still-so-sanguine global market reaction as the world economy just rolls into calamity. https://t.co/2S9HlfVhPt
What we know, what we don't know and what we are doing about the Iran War: @CalmInvestor writes at @CapitalmindMF letter on a way to look at the crisis that gives you a structured view of how to act. (read...
IRAN SAYS READY TO LET JAPAN VESSELS USE HORMUZ — KYODO REPORTS Who knows better about surprises than Japan? https://t.co/yR2ThmWwvU
French LFI Party Leader @JLMelenchon on Iran's RESPONSE to US-Israeli attacks: “Iran is exercising its legitimate right to defend its sovereignty, its people, and its resources, after being subjected to blatant aggression.” https://t.co/22z0UUDxgo
1/ Markets now think the Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them this year. A rate hike is not my baseline scenario, but I see the risks rising, for the following reasons. (Link to column in next...
Lost count of all the times people scoffed at a 1970s-style inflation “double top.” Not as much laughter now. 😞 https://t.co/FTwzh0yQik
🚨 INSIGHT Nearly half of Americans predict a “total economic collapse” within the next decade. https://t.co/30yqgjJkPX
Will higher oil cause a recession? @sonusvarghese and I discussed this in our latest Glass Half Full. https://t.co/Jc7IFlbB5X
“When oil prices rise more than 100%, the S&P 500 index typically suffers substantial corrections. While WTI prices have risen 50% so far, other non-US grades shown earlier have risen by 100% or more.” https://t.co/fN5M8QiCsW
China's economy peaked in 2021, reaching a level roughly equal to 75% of the US economy. It is now less than 2/3 the size of the US economy. https://t.co/MBi5dqxuZg
FEDWATCH: “.. If [India’s tanker] passage is successful, other countries may follow the Indian example. .. “.. the only way crude price volatility cools off is if there is a decisive winner, which is increasingly looking to be Iran.” [Emons]...
The International Energy Agency in Paris reports “the war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” TRUMP & NETANYAHU'S WAR PLANNERS -- NOT THE SHARPEST KNIVES IN THE DRAWER --...
ECB’s Stournaras warns of large impact from the war if it lasts https://t.co/tFKKxKWTL4 via @weberalexander https://t.co/UnFX547dAI
