Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Aleš Michl: Forever Hawkish
Aleš Michl became governor of the Czech National Bank in July 2022 when inflation was 17.5%, peaking at 18% two months later. By February 2024 the bank achieved its 2% target, becoming one of Europe’s first to do so, and inflation has since hovered around 2.4‑2.5%. The CNB’s key rate was raised to 7% from a pre‑pandemic average of 0.6% to combat price pressures. Michl’s board was largely rebuilt early in his tenure, fulfilling his pledge to slash inflation dramatically.
Hungary’s Election Is Already Paying Dividends for the EU and Ukraine. Is the U.S. Next?
Peter Magyar’s TISZA party won Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary election, ending Viktor Orbán’s 16‑year tenure. Within days the EU approved a $106 billion loan for Ukraine and a new sanctions package against Russia, moves previously blocked by Budapest. Magyar has pledged...
Lesetja Kganyago: Supply Shocks, Monetary Policy and the 3% Target
South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the country entered the current supply‑shock environment already at its newly adopted 3% inflation target, allowing the central bank to keep its policy stance calibrated. He highlighted that recent reforms—such as exiting...
Chiara Scotti: Digital Money and the Architecture of Trust
Chiara Scotti, speaking at a Banca d'Italia workshop co‑hosted with the ECB, emphasized that trust—not intrinsic value—underpins all forms of money. She warned that the rise of central‑bank digital currencies, stablecoins and tokenized deposits shifts focus from technology to the...
MSC Bridges the Strife with New Europe-Red Sea-Middle East Express
MSC announced the Europe‑Red Sea‑Middle East Express, a new container service that connects ten European and Middle Eastern ports, launching its first sailing from Antwerp on 10 May. The route bypasses the Strait of Hormuz by using a land‑bridge through Saudi...
Fertiglobe Profits Surge on Middle East Conflict-Driven Price Spike
Fertiglobe, the Abu Dhabi‑based fertilizer subsidiary of ADNOC, saw first‑quarter profit surge 173% to $197.9 million, driven by a sharp price spike after the Iran‑Israel conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz. Revenue rose 32% to $915 million despite a 12% drop in...
Prediction Market ETFs Offer Bias‑Free Macro Bets
NEW: Bet the President, Fed or CPI- Skip the Analysis, Guesswork and Bias. New from me today on the reason prediction market ETFs could be more popular and legit than people think. Every big macro event (Election, Fed, etc) we...
Interview with Turkiye's Diplomacy 05.05.2026
In this episode, host Uma speaks with financial consultant Laurent Lecon of The Macro Butler about the cascading economic fallout from the war disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Lecon warns that Asian oil reserves will only last...
Duty-Free Beef Quota Gives US Exporters New Access to the UK
The United States has secured a 13,000‑tonne duty‑free beef quota for the United Kingdom, marking the first zero‑tariff access since Brexit. The inaugural shipment arrived in March, accompanied by launch events at the US Embassy and a steakhouse dinner. USMEF...
Inflation Set to Surge Amid Deficits, Oil, Tight Labor
Another bout of inflation is largely baked in the cake. Deficit still at 5.8% of GDP despite DOGE. Strait of Hormuz keeping oil elevated. Immigration restrictions tightening labor supply just as capex boom creates new hiring demand. Wage growth is turning...
Financial System Resilient Amid Heightened Global Risks
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report warns that the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are driving up fuel costs and slowing the country’s post‑pandemic growth. Despite these pressures, New Zealand banks retain...
Omnia Says It Is Built to Absorb Hormuz Shock
Omnia, South Africa’s key supplier of fertiliser and mining explosives, says its supply chain can weather the current disruption of ammonia shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The company has six to eight weeks of on‑site chemical storage and has...
Trump’s $166 Billion Corporate Enrichment Scam
On April 2025, President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs that generated about $166 billion in revenue, later deemed unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. The Treasury is now refunding the illegal taxes, with corporations such as Ford, GM, Walmart and Target slated...
Iran Emerges Central in US‑China Strategic Bargaining
Araghchi’s visit to Beijing on May 6—just a week before the Xi–Trump summit—signals that Iran may have moved to the center of US-China strategic bargaining. There is a real possibility that the mid-May meeting will not only further stabilize Sino-US...
Bonds Under Fire, Yet Remain Reliable Anti‑Growth Asset
Man my feed is hating on bonds today. Bad takes everywhere "The death of" every portfolio that includes bonds story "Inflation B/E's" unanchored. "10 year returns on TLT" or "Global Fixed Income" negative "Why would you own bonds" Imho bonds are meh...
Black Sea Wheat Pushes Australian Wheat Out of SE Asia
Buyers in Southeast Asia are shifting from Australian Standard White wheat (ASW9) to lower‑cost Black Sea wheat with 11.5% protein for June shipments. Black Sea offers of $283‑285 per tonne are about $10 lower than ASW9, widening the premium buyers...
Hong Kong Posts 5.9% Q1 Growth, 13th Straight Rise
Hong Kong's economy expanded 5.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier, official advance estimates showed on Tuesday, the 13th consecutive quarter of growth and the strongest quarterly rate in nearly five years.
New EV Tax Could Cost Economy Billions, Association Warns
The UK government plans to roll out a mileage‑based electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED) in April 2028, charging three pence per mile for EVs. BEAMA, representing energy‑infrastructure firms, warns the policy could shave up to £4.8 bn ($6.1 bn) from the economy in...
Jerome Powell’s Finest Hour
Jerome Powell, the outgoing Federal Reserve chair, is being cast as a modern‑day Churchill for defending the central bank’s independence against President Donald Trump’s political pressure. The piece argues that despite policy missteps, Powell’s willingness to push back on attempts...
Indo-Pacific Trade Pact Losing Relevance Under Trump’s Aggressive Strategy: GTRI
The Indo‑Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), a 14‑member grouping representing 40% of global GDP, is losing relevance under President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade strategy, according to think tank GTRI. While the pact’s four pillars cover trade, supply‑chain resilience, clean...
Charting the New Education Financing Landscape: Macro Stability, Rising Costs and the India Opportunity
India’s education‑loan sector is gaining momentum despite a volatile global backdrop, buoyed by a young, urbanising population and an expanding middle class. The market is projected to expand at an 11‑13% CAGR through 2029, with overseas study demand accounting for...
Latest Middle East Turmoil Revives Inflation Worries
The US‑Iran conflict entered its third month, with renewed hostilities in the Gulf threatening oil flow. West Texas Intermediate crude has stayed above $100 a barrel, keeping inflation pressures elevated. Central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, are citing...
Asia Daily: May 5, 2026
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on China to use its leverage over Iran to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while China’s coast guard raised its flag on a disputed reef in the South China Sea. Australia and Japan...
Kyodo News Digest: May 5, 2026
Japan and South Africa agreed to deepen cooperation on critical mineral supply chains, aiming to attract corporate investment and revive South Africa's lagging economy. In Washington, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump will urge China’s Xi Jinping to...
Oil Prices Jump on Hormuz Tensions as US Indices Retreat From Records
Oil prices jumped over 5% after a drone strike ignited a fire at a UAE energy installation in Fujairah, raising concerns about the US‑Iran cease‑fire. The U.S. Navy deployed destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz as part of a new...
Correspondence: Asset Purchase Facility (APF) Ceiling, May 2026
On 5 May 2026 the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England exchanged letters confirming a reduction in the maximum authorised size of the Asset Purchase Facility (APF). The move follows a framework set...
Hard Lessons: Rick Rieder
In this Hard Lessons episode, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist Seth Carpenter interviews Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income and head of the Global Allocation Investment Team, who oversees roughly $3 trillion in assets. Rieder challenges the efficient‑market hypothesis, arguing...
Middle East Crisis Live: ‘We Have Not Even Begun’, Iran Warns US Amid Escalation in Strait of Hormuz
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned the United States that the status‑quo in the Strait of Hormuz is "intolerable" and signaled that Tehran has only begun its response. Tehran’s blockade of foreign shipping follows a US‑Israeli strike that killed Iran’s former...
Zimbabwe’s Economy Booms Under Mnangagwa’s Vision 2030
CAB3 is a DONE DEAL because the PROGRESS & POSITIVE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK under President @edmnangagwa can’t be disrupted. Capri Appliances, manufactures refrigerators for the Zimbabwean market & for export. The business is BOOMING, & they are expanding operations. Electricity is...
Claudia Sheinbaum Is Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place
The U.S. Justice Department has issued an extradition request for ten Mexican officials, including Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha and Senator Enrique Inzunza, accusing them of drug‑trafficking and weapons offenses. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has so far rejected the request, citing insufficient evidence and a...
Pini Althaus to Deliver Keynote at CMI Summit 5 on U.S. Government Policy and Strategy in the Global Race for...
Pini Althaus, CEO of Cove Capital, will deliver a keynote at the Critical Minerals Institute Summit 5 in Toronto on May 13, focusing on how U.S. government advocacy is reshaping access to critical minerals. His talk, “Securing Strategic Assets,” will examine financing...
NY Fed President John Williams Says Policy Ready Amid Middle East Uncertainty
New York Fed President John C. Williams told a New York audience that the Federal Reserve’s current stance is well‑positioned to handle heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. He projected 2‑2.25% GDP growth this year, unemployment around 4.25‑4.5%, and...
Study: UK Food Prices on Track to Surge 50 per Cent over Past Five Years
A new report from the Energy and Climate Impact Unit (ECIU) projects UK food prices will climb roughly 50% over the next five years, outpacing general inflation. The surge is attributed to a "perfect storm" of rising fossil‑fuel costs, climate‑driven...
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Have ‘Frank’ Conversation with the Pope – Europe Live
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is slated to meet Pope Leo XIV in the Vatican for a “frank” conversation about U.S. policy, especially the looming war in Iran, after President Donald Trump publicly criticized the pope. The meeting comes...
‘A New Equation Of The Strait’
Iranian official Bagher Ghalibaf announced a "new equation" for the Strait of Hormuz after a U.S. Navy operation that destroyed six IRGC speedboats, accusing President Trump of endangering energy transit. The clash sparked temporary cease‑fire talks, while Chevron’s CEO warned...
PSEi Falls Below 5,900 on Inflation Shock
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index slipped below 5,900, closing at 5,898.08, after inflation surged to 7.2% and geopolitical tensions rose in the Middle East. The index fell 0.74% (44.08 points). Turnover was only PHP 4.61 billion (≈ $83 million) and foreign inflows were PHP 38.59 million...
Reserve Bank of Australia Delivers Decisive Hike, Signals Balanced Path Ahead
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, in line with market expectations. Eight of nine board members backed the move, marking a more decisive stance than the previous split vote. Simultaneously, the...
Yen Holds Near Two‑Month High as Dollar Gains on Middle East Tensions
The Japanese yen stayed near its two‑month peak of 157.22 per U.S. dollar after Tokyo reportedly spent about $35 bn buying yen, while the dollar index rose to 98.45 on safe‑haven flows sparked by renewed Middle East hostilities. Traders watch the...
Price Shock Escalates to Broad Inflation, Phases I‑II Confirmed
Remember my four-phase framework for the economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War? This latest from the Financial Times is an illustration of Phases I and II in action: what begins as a narrow price shock evolves into...
War Stalemate Threatens Global Energy and Fertilizer Supplies
Signaling no restart to the war? No War No Peace No Shipping No Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, or Helium.
Oil Spikes Above $100 as Hormuz Closure Persists
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with the flimsiest of ceasefires looking flimsier by the hour, and oil prices have jumped back above $100 a barrel. At times like these, it’s important to remember that things can still get much, much,...
Australia Raises Rates Again, 4.35% Target
Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the third straight meeting, 25 bps move up to 4.35%. https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/r926jXlyCl
Iran’s Existential Threat Fuels Erratic Response to US Strait Push
What's happening in the Strait of Hormuz this week is very significant. Iran is blockaded, while at the same time the US is trying to open up the Strait to Western ships. All this is an existential threat to Iran...
Carney Aligns Canada with Europe Amid Trump Challenges
Carney Pulls Canada Closer to Europe as Both Struggle With Trump My report from Yerevan which was published yesterday morning (I was on the flight home with the PM for 12 hours without wifi so only sharing now) #cdnpoli https://t.co/53eqQrAEpx
US Blockade Works, Opponents Serve Oil Lobby
There's a lot of animosity towards the US blockade, like in 2022 when many of the same people opposed the G7 cap on Russia. This stuff is just lobbying on behalf of the global oil industry. The blockade is working....
From Near‑Zero to 6%: Bond Yields Surge
In 2020, with global interest rates near 0%, Austria sold this hundred-year bond to investors. Today, the United Kingdom is offering almost 6% (5.77%) for 30 years, think about that. https://t.co/6DDMRv4cEL
UK 30‑Year Yield Peaks at 5.76%, Highest Since 1998
*UK 30-YEAR YIELD CLIMBS TO 5.76%, HIGHEST SINCE 1998 -- On September 27, 2022, the 30-year UK hit 4.99%. This was so intolerable that UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was forced to resign. Today, the UK's 30-year yield is 77 bps higher. https://t.co/NotUU2B1Gv
RBA Hikes, Signals Pause; JPY Weakest, Oil Drops
$USD is mostly a little softer as the North American session gets under way. $JPY is the weakest of the G10 currencies, off about 0.25%. Local mkts remain closed tomorrow. RBA hikes rates but signals a pause,...
Treasury Cuts Inflation Table, Keeps only CPI, Food, Energy
Treasury's latest economic report to the TBAC (private-sector advisers on public debt issuance) slimmed down its inflation table, dropping core inflation measures along with a range of subcategories. What's remaining: headline CPI, food, and energy. Q1 (left) vs Q2 (right) https://t.co/XQ4paUIFqa
IEA Gathers Global Ambassadors to Tackle Middle East Energy Crisis
Pleased to convene Ambassadors from countries across Africa, the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe & the Middle East to discuss the energy market impacts of the war in the Middle East @IEA will continue to support governments in responding to the largest energy...