Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Bloomberg’s Emerging Markets podcast notes that soaring oil prices have forced a revision of global interest‑rate expectations, unsettling the once‑popular strategy of investing in emerging‑market local‑currency bonds. The energy price shock is prompting investors to unwind positions as higher rates erode the relative yield advantage of EM assets. Analysts Vinicius Andrade and Zijia Song warn that the shift could redirect capital toward hard‑currency securities and accelerate policy tightening in emerging economies. The discussion underscores the volatility of commodity‑driven trade ideas.
This WSJ chart comparing the decline in US and international stock markets reflects the underlying economic reality: While the global economy is reeling from the Middle East War, the US is relatively better positioned. This is especially true for energy where the...
African banking giants from Nigeria and South Africa are accelerating acquisitions and greenfield launches in East Africa, drawn by Kenya’s role as a regional financial hub and the trade‑finance potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area. The Central Bank...
Lots of unusual stuff going on in markets right now. A war that’s tough to price, a big vol premium with VIX still in the 20s, and an oil shock putting the Fed in a tough spot. @CultishCreative and I break it...
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, overturning a key tool used to target imports linked to fentanyl, migration and other concerns. The decision opens the door to potentially $166 billion in refunds...
Fascinating how the surge in interest rates is driving these decisions. The US will have to address this. It’s the only way it can realistically afford a war in the first place. Inflation will be unleashed. Rates will be capped. Time to step into gold,...
The note updates the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) using a statistical model calibrated on historical data, highlighting a deteriorating liquidity environment. It stresses that the GLI was already weakening due to capital flowing into the real economy, and the Iran...
Indonesia's government lifted its first‑quarter GDP growth outlook to 5.7%, up from 5.5%, citing strong holiday‑season consumption. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the surge stems from household spending during Ramadan‑Idul Fitri and resilient private‑sector demand. The administration also pledged to...
The Bank of England is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged through next year, as inflation pressures persist. Oxford Economics attributes the heightened risk to rising energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The central bank’s...
The article warns of an imminent credit crisis as bond yields climb amid rising inflation expectations. It argues that expanding quantitative easing and war‑related spending will erode fiat currencies, prompting a historic wealth shift from creditors to debtors. Meanwhile, gold...
The last LNG tankers from the Gulf arrive in the next 10 days. After that, many countries face a sharp drop in supply. Qatar's Ras Laffan — 20% of global LNG — could be offline for 3-5 years. Fossil fuel...
South Korea announced Shin Hyun Song, a veteran BIS official and financial‑stability scholar, as its next Bank of Korea governor. The nomination comes as the BOK faces heightened uncertainty from the Iran conflict, rising oil prices and a delicate balance...
AI macro: capex adds ~0.4pp to US GDP; supply-chain winners: Taiwan, Korea, Mexico. US leads models; China scales manufacture. Risks: skills gap, geopolitics. Trade: buy Taiwan semiconductors. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
Equity markets are underestimating the risk of a major energy shock from a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could choke global oil and LNG supplies. While U.S. economic growth remains solid, driven by fiscal stimulus and a manufacturing...
EU‑Iran trade collapsed to €3.72 billion in 2025, the lowest level in two decades, as renewed sanctions tightened economic ties. Germany remains the dominant EU partner, accounting for 31.8% of the remaining trade, followed by Italy and the Netherlands, together representing...
The escalation of the US‑Israel conflict with Iran has pushed global equity markets down more than 5%, dragging Australian superannuation returns lower. Median growth‑option super funds fell about 3% in March, leaving the financial‑year return at roughly 3.3%, while balanced...
India’s rapid economic rise is now threatened by the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran, which jeopardizes the Gulf’s oil and gas supplies that account for 40 % of its oil and 80 % of its gas imports. Disruptions to export routes and a...
In early 2026, President Trump intensified pressure on Venezuela, leveraging oil sanctions as a tool to challenge the regime and signal broader economic intentions. The move was framed not merely as a geopolitical maneuver but as a strategic effort to...
Recent attempts by the IEA and the United States to flood the market with strategic petroleum reserves—totaling roughly 572 million barrels—failed to curb soaring oil prices. Even temporary waivers that allowed the sale of sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude did not...
The first collective economic health check since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran is underway, with purchasing‑manager indexes (PMIs) across the U.S., euro zone and other major economies expected to fall. Rising energy prices from disrupted shipping and production are...
Inequality shock is the next risk from the Iran crisis Shortages give dominant firms cover to raise prices, protect margins, and push the pain onto everyone else Hormuz could become not just an energy shock, but an inequality shock https://t.co/J5Rdjxc0KI #Inequality #Inflation #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis...
These comments by former @CENTCOM commander General Votel highlights a disconnect between the military and economic strategy regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks on shipping and the Strait were expected. When it comes to escorts, General Votel acknowledged that it can...
China’s grain‑output forecasting system, honed over 46 years, now predicts national harvests with sub‑0.2% error, far outpacing the 5‑10% margins typical in the West. The model’s April release gives Beijing a six‑month lead before the autumn harvest, allowing pre‑emptive moves...
At the opening of the China Development Forum 2026, Premier Li Qiang called for a global pledge to deepen economic openness, warning that protectionism is not a cure for current challenges. He indirectly rebuked the United States, suggesting its trade...
The Houthis, known as Ansar Allah, have so far avoided direct involvement in the US‑Israel‑Iran war but recent statements suggest they are reconsidering. Their political bureau said “all options are on the table,” hinting at possible alignment with Iran against...
The Macro Butler released a new podcast episode titled “Turning Dirt into Bullion: Chasing El Dorado,” summarizing the week’s newsletter. The episode explores how investors chase commodity‑linked returns, especially in gold and base‑metal mining. It highlights recent price spikes, speculative mining...
This, from Bloomberg, illustrates how the Middle East War threatens a widening set of global supply chains. (On Monday, the FT is scheduled to post my column on a separate global risk that has yet to receive sufficient attention: the likely...
Markets are useful for the same reason polls are useful: not because they’re flawless, but because they aggregate lots of views. The difference is investors back their opinions with cash. Stocks aren’t GDP, but they do reveal what people expect...
Iran launched two missiles that struck the Israeli towns of Arad and Dimona, injuring more than 100 people, including civilians and a child. The attack damaged residential structures and hit the area believed to house Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal, prompting...
Markets have been the ultimate constraint on Trump and they're starting to look very iffy, especially where the US bond market (bottom left) and private credit (bottom right) are concerned. If the US escalates the war with Iran, markets will...
Washington Is Flying Blind on China Americans talk incessantly about the need to compete with their country’s greatest rival and how to do it. Yet many U.S. policymakers have never been to China. Impacts quality of the debate clearly... https://t.co/ghNp4u7uqt
The Israel‑Iran war has driven Brent crude to $92 a barrel, a 40% premium over baseline, while the Thai baht has fallen 6% since February 28. Central banks warn that prolonged fighting could push Thailand’s 2026 growth to as low...
Light on US data next week but PMIs are key. These are the events to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims & UMich Revisions 🇪🇺 EU - PMIs and GE IFO 🇬🇧 GBP -PMIs -Retail Sales -CPI 🇦🇺 AU -PMIs -CPI 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -BoJ Minutes
The New Weapons of Global Power Are Oil, Rare Earths and Microchips This is a classic WSJ story, very well executed concept, good insights. Good read. https://t.co/OLjtrroo6Y
The odds of a rate cut in 2026 have fallen to 14.5%. Just 3 weeks ago, they were nearly 100%. https://t.co/uMCjhmatJN
A recent piece by Enrico Fardella and me on European trade pressures, translated into Spanish by Agenda Publica https://t.co/5AEY665Tjb
TEL AVIV/JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran threatened to escalate their war by attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, a potential widening of hostilities which could deepen a regional crisis and add to concerns in...
This "bet" completely ignores the negative shock to economic growth. If central banks raise rates into this, they will cause a recession. Cc @BenRamanauskas
The ECB is ready to respond swiftly to signs that inflation expectations are surpassing 2% because of the Iran war, Joachim Nagel says https://t.co/rFFN40ION8 https://t.co/Eb51dA3MrT
1/4 Bloomberg: "Chinese Premier Li Qiang has responded to growing calls from trading partners to address a rising trade surplus, with China’s exports continuing to surge in the first two months of the year." https://t.co/EMOs1RWaAX
What are you doing as an investor during this market pullback from the Iran war?
If Iran—facing threats from President Trump—now announces that the Strait of Hormuz is OPEN, would that immediately end the crisis and get ships moving through it again? Why or why not?
What if the Houthis enter the war, asks @citrinowicz ? A disruption at Bab el-Mandeb, on top of Hormuz, would turn global economic shock into panic #RedSea #Houthis #Hormuz #OilMarkets #SupplyShock #EnergySecurity #Trade #Geopolitics
TACO is not an option for Trump, writes @biancoresearch He can't leave Iran in control of Hormuz Crude won’t calm down and markets won’t recover. #IranWar #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Trump #Geopolitics #Macro #MiddleEast
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's inflation is 7.0%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15.1%/yr. That’s above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5%/yr-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/x28UBeLyKl
While the US and Israel escalate, Modi plays it cool. INDIA'S STRATEGIC AUTONOMY = A WINNING HAND. https://t.co/T87Vj30GN9
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
The stupid sonofabitch wanted to make it the 1950s again and we’re ending up in the 1970s: - Oil shocks crushing Americans at the pump, - Inflation eating Americans’ paychecks, - American solders sent to fight pointless wars with no plan. https://t.co/7iRuS28mfB
Everyone is watching oil in dollars. Almost nobody is watching oil in yen. That's where the real risk is. If Japan panics, the carry trade unwinds again — and this time it won't be a two-day event. I laid it all out on CNBC...
