Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
FTSE 100 Live: Stocks Dip After Oil Spikes on Hormuz Tensions
London’s FTSE 100 edged lower on Monday as oil prices spiked amid renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States announced it had struck seven Iranian boats attempting to block the narrow waterway, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned any vessel would be destroyed. The United Arab Emirates reported a tanker linked to state‑owned ADNOC was hit, though no injuries occurred. The geopolitical flare‑up injected fresh risk into energy markets, prompting cautious trading across the UK equity index.
RBA Risks a Recession but Feels There's Nothing Else It Can Do
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate to 4.35%, marking its third increase this year as it battles persistent inflation and downgraded growth outlooks. In its latest Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA projects GDP will stall at...
Oil, Metals, and the Dollar: What Treasury Professionals Must Watch
U.S. military action in the Strait of Hormuz has turned the waterway into a critical chokepoint, driving oil prices higher and tightening treasury payment timelines. At the same time, Iran’s attempts to use the Chinese yuan for oil fees highlight...
RBA Delivers Third Consecutive Rate Hike
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its official cash rate by a quarter‑point to 4.35%, marking its third straight hike. Eight of nine board members voted in favor, citing renewed inflation pressure from late‑2025 capacity constraints and a worsening Middle‑East...
RBA Hikes Interest Rates: “It Is a Very Tough Time”
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate to 4.35% on May 5, marking its third consecutive hike this year after a sharp jump in headline inflation. Governor Michele Bullock warned that Australia faces a “very tough time” as high inflation,...
Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent, marking the fourth increase this year. The decision was driven by a resurgence of inflation, fueled by higher fuel and commodity prices...
South Sudan’s Kiir Orders Banks to Lift Withdrawal Limits as Cash Crisis Deepens
South Sudan President Salva Kiir has ordered commercial banks to remove all cash‑withdrawal limits to help small depositors amid a deepening liquidity crisis. The directive follows the Bank of South Sudan’s decision to increase cash allocations to banks after the economy...
Only Congress Can Fix American Trade
The U.S. Supreme Court recently nullified President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs that were based on a broad reading of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The decision highlights a long‑standing gap: Congress has delegated most tariff authority to the executive...
Massive Money Printing Highlights Bitcoin’s Timeliness
Governments have printed more money in the last 5 years than the previous 100 combined. And people still ask if it’s too late to buy Bitcoin
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap: Awaiting the RBA, Expected to Hike by 25bp
The Reserve Bank of Australia is poised to lift its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, with the Australian dollar holding steady ahead of the decision. March household spending jumped 1.6% month‑on‑month and the Services PMI rose to...
Four Measures of Aggregate Economic Activity
The latest release of the SPGMI monthly GDP index shows a 2.1% month‑over‑month annualized increase, indicating that aggregate output continues to rise sharply. This growth aligns with the Brave‑Butters‑Kelley coincident index and the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, all of which...
Inflation Jumps to 7.2%, Highest Since 2023
Philippine inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April, the fastest pace since March 2023. The jump far outstripped Reuters’ 5.5% forecast and the STAR’s 5.6% median estimate. Food and beverage prices rose 6%, while transport costs surged 21.4%, together accounting for over...
US Strikes Iran Fast Boats, Two Vessels Transit Hormuz
The United States launched Project Freedom, a maritime security effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and successfully escorted two U.S.-flagged vessels, including Maersk’s Alliance Fairfax, through the waterway. In response, Iran intensified attacks, striking multiple ships, a Fujairah oil...
April Payrolls Projected to Add 70,000 Jobs, Unemployment May Slip to 4.2%
KPMG forecasts that U.S. private‑sector payrolls will increase by 70,000 in April, a modest gain that could lower the unemployment rate to 4.2%. The outlook highlights continued wage growth, sector‑specific headwinds, and a potential boost for Federal Reserve hawks.
S&P 500 Futures Slip 0.5% as Implied Volatility Rises to 72.25
E‑mini S&P 500 futures closed at 72.25, down roughly 0.5% on the day, as implied volatility sharpened. The move comes as traders brace for a packed economic calendar, including non‑farm payrolls and Fed commentary, and it signals tighter pricing for...
The Commodities Feed: Middle East Re-Escalation Pushes Oil Prices Higher
The cease‑fire between the United States and Iran is unraveling, with U.S. forces striking Iranian boats and Iran allegedly hitting a U.S. warship and UAE infrastructure. Brent crude rallied 5.8% to settle above $114 per barrel, while Fujairah port—crucial for...
Russian Think Tank Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 0.5%-0.7% Amid Oil Production Disruptions
The TsMAKP think tank, linked to the Russian government, reduced its 2026 GDP growth projection to 0.5%-0.7% from 0.9%-1.3%, citing Ukrainian drone strikes, new Western sanctions and falling oil export volumes. The downgrade comes even as global crude prices have...
Sentix Index Climbs to -16.4 in May, Boosting Eurozone Investor Morale
The Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the euro zone edged up to -16.4 in May from -19.2 in April, marking the first improvement in two months. While the reading remains in negative territory, the rise suggests a slight easing of...
BNP Paribas Forecast Calls for 50‑bp BoE Rate Hike as UK Inflation Stays Above Target
BNP Paribas economists project UK inflation will linger at 3.6% YoY in 2026, well above the Bank of England’s 2% target, prompting a forecasted 50‑basis‑point monetary tightening. The outlook also foresees GDP growth slowing to 0.7% in 2026, keeping the...
USD Slides Further as Global Central Banks Tighten While Fed Stays Paused
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee warned that the U.S. dollar’s recent slide will likely continue into May, driven by a widening policy gap: the Federal Reserve is expected to remain on pause through 2026 while the ECB, BoE and...
ECB and Bank of England Hold Rates as Energy‑Driven Inflation Persists
The European Central Bank and Britain’s Bank of England both kept their policy rates steady this week, with the BoE holding its base rate at 3.75%. Officials warned that volatile oil and gas prices keep inflationary pressure alive, limiting any...
How China’s New Trade Rules Aim to Nullify Trump Sovereignty Push
Beijing unveiled broad trade rules that allow Chinese authorities to investigate and punish foreign firms that shift sourcing away from China, a move announced just weeks before President Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping. The regulations target any “suspension of normal...
Philippines Inflation Spikes to 7.2%, Widening Asian Divergence
The Philippines April inflation rose sharply to 7.2%YoY on rice and fuel price hikes. We had predicted that this would be the most vulnerable country in Asia due to its deficits of energy and food. We expect further hikes for...
EU Bans Chinese Inverters From Funded Clean‑energy Projects
SCMP: "The EU has taken its most direct step yet to cut Chinese clean energy hardware out of publicly funded projects, banning Chinese inverters from all EU-funded schemes in a move Brussels described as the first in a series of...
NATO-Aligned Intelligence Finds Russian Timber Worst-Hit by Sanctions
NATO‑aligned Latvian intelligence agency SAB reports that Russian timber and cellulose exports have slumped 50% between 2021 and 2025, making the sector the hardest‑hit by Western sanctions. The analysis estimates sanctions have already cost Moscow more than $130 billion, with an...
Shenzhen's Retail Sales Stagnate Amid Strong GDP Growth
1/4 SCMP: "China’s top tech hub, Shenzhen, saw retail sales grow by just 0.5% year on year in the first quarter after reporting gross domestic product growth of 5.8% for the same period, casting a spotlight on its unbalanced development as... https://t.co/s3A260dwXx
Indonesia's Q1 2026 GDP Hits 5.6% Growth, Fastest Since
JUST IN: Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.61% annually in the first quarter of 2026, the fastest rate since 2022.
Fresh Data Warns RBA Not to Hike
Australian job‑ads data show a softening labour market, with ANZ‑Indeed postings down 0.8% in April and SEEK ads slipping 0.4% for seven straight months. Wage growth remains flat, offering no sign of a breakout, while the Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge...
RBA Raises Rates to 2024 High Amid Stubborn Inflation
JUST IN: Australia's central bank hikes rates to the highest since 2024 as inflation remains elevated.
SWIFT Trades Surge; SIPS, Alternatives Rise Fast in Asia
SWIFT $ trades hit a high at 51%. But SIPS and alternatives are growing quickly from a very low base. Global trade risk is evolving at an exponential pace and risk managers need to be alert to the consequences both...
Singapore, New Zealand Ink Supply‑Chain Pact to Safeguard Fuel, Food, Medical Goods
Singapore and New Zealand signed the Agreement on Trade in Essential Supplies, committing to keep fuel, food, medical and construction goods moving during crises. The deal ties roughly one‑third of New Zealand’s fuel needs to Singapore refineries and secures about 14% of...
Ceasefire Boosts Iran's Leverage, Leaves U.S. Goals Vague
The ceasefire shifted the war in Iran's favor, suggests @Rory_Johnston By keeping pressure on flows and the global economy without absorbing direct strikes, Tehran improved its leverage U.S. goals are still unclear. That’s not progress...except for Iran. #oil #Iran #geopolitics #energy #markets
Bond Yields Rise, Yet Manufacturing Gains Momentum
Bond yields are rising on inflation fears while factory orders just posted their strongest gain in months and manufacturing keeps expanding. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/ra2hKn68G2
Vietnam's New Business Registrations Jump 32.8%, Capital Inflows Near $30bn
Vietnam logged 77,800 newly registered enterprises in the January‑April 2026 period, a 32.8% increase year‑on‑year, with total registered capital of nearly $30 billion. The surge reflects stronger investor confidence and a policy push to deepen the private sector.
Philippine Inflation Spikes to 7.2% in April.
"Beats" is not the right word in this headline. "Exceeds" is more accurate. Philippine inflation surged to 7.2% in April 2026 from 4.1 % in March 2026, led by higher costs in food and transport the Philippine Statistics Authority said Tuesday....
Philippines' April Inflation Hits 7.2%, Triple Year‑Start Rate
That Philippine April inflation print was nasty: 7.2% - highest in three years, above every single forecast, and more than triple the inflation rate at the start of the year https://t.co/zVK7kPBswQ
European Stocks Hold Steady as Auto Shares Slip on Looming U.S. Tariffs
European shares barely moved on Monday, with the pan‑European STOXX 600 ending at 611.98 points. The auto sector, however, tumbled as U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a tariff increase to 25% on European cars and trucks, pressuring German manufacturers.
Venezuela’s Inflation Still World’s Highest at 505% YoY
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 505.1%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA SPIN. https://t.co/WsbHQ4voQe
Strait of Hormuz Turmoil Sends Shockwaves Through Oil Markets
Spoke with CBC's Power and Politics this evening about the chaotic past 24 hours in the Strait of Hormuz and what it all means for oil markets. https://t.co/WgW8feXlpU
Iran War Spurs Recession Fears as IMF Warns of Severe Global Fallout
Oil prices have surged more than 50% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began on Feb. 28, lifting Brent to $111 a barrel and sending the S&P 500 to a fresh intraday high. Energy analyst Amrita Sen warned investors are "sleepwalking" into...
We’re Approaching a 2008‑style Housing Crisis
Gives you an idea of how far we are from the 2008 housing / financial crisis
Australia's Geelong Refinery Outage Extends, Tightening Fuel Supply
Viva Energy announced that the fire-hit Geelong refinery will operate at reduced capacity for at least six weeks, cutting petrol output to about 60% and diesel and jet fuel to roughly 80%. The prolonged outage deepens Australia's fuel shortage risk...
Philippines' National Government Borrowings Drop 39.4% in March to $2.1 Billion
The Philippines' Bureau of the Treasury said gross national government borrowings fell 39.4% in March to P116.66 billion ($2.1 bn), with domestic debt plunging 70.4% to P46.76 billion. The decline reflects a front‑loading strategy, higher amortizations and external shocks from the Middle East...
US National Debt Reaches 100% of GDP
The U.S. public debt has surpassed 100 percent of nominal GDP, a ratio last seen after World War II. Treasury data attribute the rise to pandemic relief, higher defense outlays, and chronic deficits. Analysts warn that a debt‑to‑GDP level above one could...
New Report Documents How Central Asian States Abet Russian Sanctions-Busting
A new CGCPS report finds Central Asian states serving as a back‑door for Russia’s sanctions‑busting trade, channeling high‑priority dual‑use goods and financial flows. Exports of Common High Priority List (CHPL) items from Kazakhstan surged 400% in 2022 before falling sharply,...
Rates Near Yearly Highs, Slowing Activity but Manageable
Rates are near yearly highs, still lower than last year, but these levels have already slowed things down this year. Nothing too bad, but there is definitely some impact.
Bond Market Flags Risk as 30‑Year Yield Tops 5%
The 30-Year Treasury yield closed above 5% today and it not far from its highest level in more than a decade. The stock market may be ignoring Iran and Inflation, but the bond market is not. Video: https://t.co/2JUqFjVZ49
Economic Flash: Risk Appetite Rapidly Returns
April’s market rebound showed risk appetite snapping back as the S&P 500 jumped nearly 11% on strong earnings and renewed AI enthusiasm. At the same time, inflation pressures resurfaced, with the core PCE index climbing to 3.2% – the highest level...
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Volatile Rates Ahead as Fed Turns Hawkish and Energy Shock Builds
Redfin economists warn that interest rates will stay volatile as the Federal Reserve adopts a more cautious, hawkish tone amid rising inflation and an escalating Iran‑related energy shock. Core PCE inflation remains at 3.2% YoY, the highest since late‑2023, while...
Iran Strikes UAE Oil Hub, Signaling Heightened Retaliation
In response to the US launch of “Project Freedom” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran launched a drone and missile attack. It hit the UAE’s Fujairah oil industry zone. Iran is LOCKED AND LOADED. https://t.co/R8f939cm7w