Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
In the third installment of the Irregular Warfare Initiative’s series, analysts Hamlet Yousef and Ioannis Koskinas dissect the geoeconomic dimensions of the ongoing Iran conflict. The discussion, moderated by Jackie Giunta, highlights how energy flows, maritime security and sanctions networks are being weaponized to exert strategic pressure. They argue that these economic levers are creating ripple effects across global markets, reshaping supply chains and heightening geopolitical competition. The session offers a grounded, experience‑based perspective on the intersection of economics and irregular warfare.
Iran has effectively sealed the Strait of Hormuz, slashing daily oil‑tanker traffic by roughly 95% since early March 2026. The closure has pushed crude prices above $100 a barrel and disrupted about 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Despite...
Global markets remain dominated by the West Asia conflict, keeping risk aversion high across asset classes. The Federal Reserve held policy rates steady, offering only modest guidance for 25‑basis‑point cuts in 2026 and 2027, and emphasized a data‑dependent stance. Elevated...
Harish K. Ahuja, head of sustainability at NSE, urged retail investors to stay calm amid a 7‑10% global market correction tied to geopolitical tensions. He emphasized that India’s fundamentals—strong GDP growth, low inflation, and robust industrial activity—remain solid despite short‑term...
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew ₹35,475 crore from Indian equities this week, taking March’s cumulative outflow to ₹88,180 crore – the highest monthly net withdrawal recorded in 2026. The sell‑off accelerated after a Monday outflow of ₹10,827 crore and ended with a Friday dump...
Iran has signaled willingness to permit Japanese‑flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for global oil shipments. The offer follows phone talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Japanese officials amid heightened tensions from the...
Larry Kuddown hosts Fox Business' "Kudlow" on March 20, delivering a 36‑minute episode that examines domestic and global economic policies. The program features real‑time market analysis, fiscal and monetary commentary, and interviews with industry experts. It airs on the Fox...
The S&P 500 slipped more than 2.5% last week, erasing over $1 trillion in market capitalisation as fears of a US‑Iran war intensified. In the past month the index has fallen 5.83%, wiping out roughly $3 trillion. The benchmark also broke below its...
Analysts upgrade iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) to BUY, citing the central bank’s monetary easing and expanding trade ties with China and the EU. The fund offers a 4.2% dividend yield and stands to benefit from the upcoming EU‑Mercosur free‑trade...
FinHeim Research rates the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) a BUY, citing anticipated monetary easing and expanding trade ties with China and the EU. The fund trades at $35.06, offers a 4.22% dividend yield and holds $9.3 B in assets, positioning...
India’s crude oil imports plunged 23% in the first half of March as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, sharply curtailing Gulf deliveries. Refiners responded by nearly doubling purchases from Russia, which now accounts for about 44% of total imports,...
Cambodia is ramping up fuel imports from Singapore and Malaysia to offset shortages triggered by the ongoing Middle‑East conflict. After a peak where roughly one‑third of its 6,300 stations temporarily closed, closures have fallen to 5.77 %. Imports of gasoline and...
What can Canada do to help address the global shortage of oil and gas caused by the war in Iran? #canada🇨🇦 #canada #energy
The stock market reaches its November low and President Trump considers ending the Iran conflict. Hopefully this war will end soon, enough lives lost already. Any good news and the stock market will be off to the races. $NDX $SPX...
The latest NBER paper shows a pronounced shift in the composition of global foreign‑exchange reserves. The U.S. dollar’s share slipped below 57% in Q3 2025, while gold overtook the euro to become the second‑largest reserve asset. Central banks are diversifying into...
Rick Rieder of BlackRock told Unhedged. 👉 “This is one of the largest supply shocks we’ve seen in a generation, 👉markets have had to react quickly, 💥 when markets move quickly, they overreact.” https://t.co/RRf6LgSI91
🟥TRUMP’S SURPRISE IRAN OIL U-TURN: 30-Day Waiver Unlocks 140M Barrels: ▪️Will IT LOWER OIL PRICES? (ask your company to subscribe) Link: https://t.co/XUVxhDoQuD
The Peterson Institute for International Economics convened a high‑level panel of central bank governors from New Zealand, Spain, Korea and Switzerland to examine open‑economy monetary policy in a rapidly shifting financial and geopolitical climate. Moderated by former Bank of Ireland governor...
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry "..headlines focus on price of oil at the pump, a deeper story lies in dislocation of energy markets and the global breakdown in the traditional distribution...
You're right about the big picture of thin margins, structural dependence & denial @ashokdadhwal196 But Hormuz is not merely “a chokepoint.” It is the central artery of the global economy. We knew that before things overshot so much #OilMarkets #Hormuz #Geopolitics...
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a live discussion titled “The Realities of Economic Security,” moderated by Anjali Bhatt. Experts Warwick McKibbin, Cullen Hendrix, and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard presented macroeconomic scenarios on the Middle East conflict, commodity‑supply vulnerabilities, and Europe’s policy dilemma between...
Gulf oil and gas flows may take months or years to restore. That means this is not a temporary price spike. It's the biggest oil shock in history And it hits the heart of the global economy. https://t.co/DOP0vnh2av #OilMarkets #LNG #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar
So, just to be clear. 1️⃣US & Iran sever ties 2️⃣US sanctions Iranian oil 3️⃣US attacks Iran 4️⃣Iran attacks shipping cutting off the flow of oil 5️⃣The US approves the sale of Iranian oil in the US https://t.co/USz8VfvQGc
President Donald Trump announced that U.S. operations against Iran are nearing completion and that the United States will step back from directly policing the Strait of Hormuz. He said the waterway will be guarded by nations that use it, with...
Middle East conflict threatens to disrupt vital remittance flows: As Iranian strikes on Gulf energy and finance targets enter their fourth week, attention is shifting to how a protracted conflict may impace remittance flows from the region. @TheBanker: https://t.co/4x3Ae5yVhD https://t.co/vPgl44Nolf
So under this OFAC licence, the US could (though probably won't) import its first Iranian oil since Jimmy Carter https://t.co/7slkt1bAxs
Oil prices are edging toward $100 a barrel for Brent crude as the Iran war disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, pushing national gasoline averages to $3.91 and squeezing low‑income households. Economists warn the ripple effect will raise costs for everything...
"Trump just authorized Americans to trade Iranian oil for the first time since Clinton banned Americans from doing so in 1995." @petereharrell
🔴President Trump talking about Hormuz Strait: “We don’t even need to be there, in that the U.S. has just become the largest producer of energy anywhere in the world.” He also questioned the role of the U.S. in the region: The...
The EU is set to finalize a trade pact with Australia early next week, coinciding with President Ursula von der Leyen’s Canberra visit. Negotiators have narrowed the agenda to a few remaining issues, notably beef and lamb quotas and the...
You are not alone. "Monetary conditions in the UK are... appreciably tighter than they were in 2022, and households are under more financial strain. The Bank of England does not have anything like as much room to raise rates as...
Aging populations are converging across high‑income and middle‑income nations, while low‑income countries contend with a burgeoning youth cohort. Advanced economies face soaring old‑age dependency ratios, and emerging economies are poised for a faster, sharper workforce decline than the West experienced....
The market is currently betting that this whole "Hormuz problem" gets cleaned up in the next 30 days. And I’m looking at the data from my office in Abu Dhabi, and so far it’s heading that way. But if that two-mile-wide...
In just two weeks, Middle East Oil on Water has collapsed by 175 Million Barrels. "Truly staggering" - @Rory_Johnston (it's his chart). "It’s impossible to overstate the magnitude of this dislocation." 1/3 https://t.co/iYwEtzNH9E
The war in Iran and attacks on Qatar's Ras Laffan terminal have driven European spot LNG prices above $20 per million British thermal units, more than double pre‑conflict levels. This price surge fuels concerns that volatility could erode buyer confidence...
Another remarkable change in net-speculative positioning comes from AUDUSD. A further nudge in the net long positioning, pushes futures spec interest to the heaviest long since October 2017. A carry drive as rate forecasts pick up https://t.co/sJ0Xl2KxxD
Copper just dropped 4.8% in a single session. LME inventories at highest since 2019. When Dr. Copper rolls over while oil surges, it's telling you something ugly about global demand. https://t.co/qDHoGINfEz
Argentina exported 50,000 metric tonnes of LPG to India in the first quarter of 2026, more than double the 22,000 tonnes shipped to the country in all of 2025. The surge reflects Argentina’s steady rise in LPG output, which reached...
Trump is bailing out and leaving the rest of the world to clear up his mess.
Oil price and GDP effects of SoH closure for one, two or three quarters. https://t.co/JOzrf3rVQR
Steve Keen and Phil Dobbie explore how compound interest fuels exponential economic growth while confronting the reality of finite planetary resources. They trace the historical condemnation of interest as usury across major religions and note its resurgence after the industrial...
Bichler and Nizan’s latest: How the relative earnings of the core oil companies vary with the oil price. Featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/rSQKknEmX7
U.S. resin exporters are seeing a surge in container bookings as the Iran‑Israel conflict disrupts the Middle East’s dominant plastics supply chain. On March 16, Vizion recorded 6,191 daily export bookings, nearly double the 3,500‑4,500 range typical for 2026. The first...
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude rose in further fits and starts as the Iran War stretches into its 4th week and belligerents escalate to attacks on upstream infrastructure that have already wrought durable supply losses. Summary below, link...
Oil prices surged as the Iran‑U.S. conflict entered its third week, pushing Brent crude above $112 per barrel, the highest level since July 2022. The near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil shipments, and...
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
The week of March 21‑27, 2026 features a sparse calendar of central‑bank meetings but a flurry of high‑profile speeches from Fed Chair Powell, BoE’s Taylor and Greene, and several ECB officials, fueling speculation of rate hikes later in the year. A slate...
President Donald Trump signaled a possible military move on Iran's Kharg Island after a gas field attack, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to favor a different approach. The split underscores rising tensions that could disrupt oil flows through...
yields - what a week(!) as they appear to be resolving higher after consolidating... it's a global phenomenon... not a U.S. thing, or a Canada thing, or a Europe thing... $TNX $TYX 😜 please don't blame Trump, or the Iran war, or...
In this brief episode, Andrew Sheets draws a parallel between March Madness basketball and the sudden shift in market narratives caused by the Iran conflict and a potential oil shock. He outlines how, after a period of strong economic signals—low...
