Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The author highlights a rapid crude oil rally from $70 to $120 per barrel, which shattered the market’s prevailing rate‑cut consensus in just a week. Simultaneously, short‑term rates shifted dramatically—SONIA jumped 45 basis points and EURIBOR flipped from pricing cuts to hikes—while the Federal Reserve remains on hold. The piece argues that traditional financial models, designed for a low‑rate environment, have failed to price these dynamics correctly. It introduces an "agentic research system" to map risk‑reward across equities, rates, and crude.
What impacts might the war in Iran have on the CUSMA review? #canada🇨🇦 #trade #canada #tariffs #energy
The Straits of Hormuz and maritime generally is THE story of the war with Iran. Iran cannot be left in charge of the Straits and choke the world. I recorded a special episode of Invested with @AmiDaniel1, founder & CEO...
President Donald Trump announced a five‑day pause on planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, citing "productive conversations" with Tehran. The talks, led by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reportedly involved Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad‑Bagher Ghalibaf, though Iran publicly denied...
Month two. No de-escalation. More troops. Kharg Island occupation being planned. In my experience, markets that price short conflicts and get long ones reprice quickly and painfully. Kharg Island handles 90%+ of Iran's oil exports. The implicit assumption built into current market prices...
Thai authorities are negotiating with the United States to address the 10 % global tariff and a Section 301 investigation that could trigger new duties, while preparing a written response by mid‑April. The U.S. tariff expires in July, intensifying the urgency of...
A 60 Minutes segment highlighted the widening gap between U.S. shipyards and Asian rivals, underscoring a long‑standing shipbuilding crisis. South Korean conglomerate Hanwha announced up to $5 billion to expand Philadelphia’s Philly Shipyard, aiming to boost annual output from under two...
Flash PMIs drop Tuesday. First real data read since oil hit $112. In my experience, the PMIs are the most honest early signal of what's actually happening in the economy. If manufacturing and services both print below 50 while inflation expectations stay...
Commodity Context released its March 2026 Global Oil Data Deck, highlighting the profound impact of the Iran‑War‑driven Hormuz stoppage on oil balances. Confirmed production shut‑ins are set to push the market into its largest deficit on record through March, while...
Economist Lane Akre hosted the latest Pro Farmer podcast, focusing on fund positioning and rising Chinese interest in U.S. agricultural imports. He and economist Spencer Langford examined how China’s appetite for soybeans and corn is reshaping trade flows. The discussion then shifted to...
The article argues that while global attention remains on the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran, a growing focus in Washington is the potential collapse of Cuba's communist regime. Analysts claim the island’s economic reforms and rising private sector activity suggest a...
Oil prices plunged more than 5% after President Donald Trump suggested his team was discussing an end to the Iran conflict, a claim Tehran denied. The comments temporarily eased geopolitical risk premiums, prompting a sharp sell‑off in crude futures. In...
![Defense & Aerospace Daily Podcast [Mar 23, 2026] Look Ahead W/ Byron Callan](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://hixhlmpcokxhartfkpyi.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/images/articles/a2883ea803703e9d9eb32e7a418c4dfe.webp)
President Trump postponed his five‑day ultimatum to strike Iran’s power grid after positive diplomatic talks, extending the window for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal traffic. The delay comes as the administration prepares a $200 billion war supplemental and...
The episode examines the market rally sparked by President Donald Trump's claim of progress in talks with Iran, which sent oil prices down over 11% to just under $100 a barrel and lifted the S&P 500 about 2%. Investment manager...
In this episode, Sean Clark, CIO of Clark Capital Management, explains why markets historically overreact to crises with an initial dip of about 7% but then rebound strongly over the following months, urging investors to avoid knee‑jerk reactions amid the...
Moody’s Analytics lowered its Philippine GDP outlook to 4.9% for 2026 and 5.2% for 2027, revising down from 5.1% and 5.4% respectively, while keeping the 2028 forecast at 5.3%. The new projections fall short of the government’s 5‑6% target for...
Bloomberg Surveillance aired its March 23, 2026 television episode at 20:35, featuring Norman Roule of CSIS, Michael Haigh of Societe Generale, and Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran. The program blended interviews on warfare‑related risk, commodity market outlooks, and upcoming monetary policy. Listeners received...
the devil is in the details. It's important for the Iranian regime's legitimacy & public face not to engage in diplomacy with the US. So Trump may say "we spoke with the Iranians" what actually happened in that Trumps ppl...
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva used the CELAC summit in Bogotá to condemn what he described as a resurgence of a colonial mindset toward developing nations, singling out U.S. actions in Venezuela and the ongoing fuel blockade of...
President Donald Trump has extended by five days the deadline to "hit and obliterate" Iran's power stations and energy infrastructure if Tehran does not restore free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The shift follows earlier, more aggressive rhetoric threatening...
War in the Middle East and Houthi attacks have forced carriers to avoid the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, prompting a surge of vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This shift has dramatically increased demand for ship‑refuelling...
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
"US objectives remain unclear, making it impossible to measure progress (and thus the likely length of the war). Statements from top US administration officials give different and at times contradictory assessments of the war; in the absence of measurable objectives,...
India and Russia reaffirmed their ambition to lift bilateral trade from $68.7 billion to $100 billion by 2030, emphasizing a balanced and sustainable approach. Both ministers highlighted that 96 percent of current trade is settled in national currencies, bypassing Western payment systems. Ongoing...
Stocks, bonds, and gold all fell at the same time last week. That's not normal. That's a forced liquidation event. Margin debt hit $1.28 trillion — 4.07% of GDP. Highest ratio in history. Higher than dot-com. Higher than 2008. When that unwinds, it...
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
More than 30 U.S. executives, including Apple’s Tim Cook and Eli Lilly’s David Ricks, attended the China Development Forum in Beijing, signaling a renewed push into China’s consumer market. Apple reported a 23% year‑on‑year rise in iPhone sales, while Eli Lilly announced...
#tradeXpresso: with the WTO #MC14 around the corner, let’s have a poll about the future of multilateralism in Tomorrowland. What do you see as the most likely scenario for #TradePolicy3.0? Not really sure what I mean? Click here first: https://t.co/lGxTVEATfb
This is a very good macro framework to adopt😂 This is the 1's & 0's of which experts to trust.
Donald Trump announced a postponement of threatened strikes on Iran’s power plants, prompting a rapid rally in U.S. equities and a sharp decline in crude oil prices. CNBC seized on the move, wondering whether the market surge signaled the long‑awaited...
Jet fuel prices have DOUBLED to over $200/barrel since the Iran war. Asian airlines and energy suppliers face MAJOR SHORTAGES. SIGNS OF A MAJOR CRISIS ARE APPEARING: Thousands of flights have already been canceled AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO...
"We estimate that a modest increase in private credit default rates to 3-4% (the lower end of the range for leveraged loans in prior credit cycles) would result in a small drag on GDP of about 0.1%." - Goldman
Non-consensus view here @fejau_inc @qthomp ... Feels like short term inflation expectations are likely making a top here. Obviously this has a lot to do with oil. If oil can't go any higher on the headlines now, time to pay attention.......
👉 Fear index Vix tumbles w/oil on Trump’s softer Iran tone. Reality check: both still elevated vs. pre-war. This isn’t calm – it’s just less panic. https://t.co/1L2wIolJnp
It's amazing what getting backstopped by the U.S. can do for a nation with a currency crisis.
Poll results: 60% of respondents said the US economy will fall into a recession this year... https://t.co/tNssjMxbdK
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on Pres. Trump’s claim that the US is engaged in negotiations with Iran: “The Iranians have been saying very clearly that there are no negotiations... I think it raises questions about the President.” https://t.co/aM61cohaAc
India rupee: 94/USD. Rs 80,000 crore of foreign capital pulled from India in March alone. DXY near 100. Oil at $112. That combination is an emerging market wrecking ball. Few understand this. https://t.co/urDfdNX6YF
"We're focused on and worried about the rise in oil prices, but it's the rise in interest rates that can actually have a broader negative impact on the global economy..." 🎙️ @pboockvar, CIO @onepointbfg https://t.co/JjvKGO6Kfq
2023-2025 rates would already be over 7% with the worse levels of spreads each year. https://t.co/2c2qtO9Hlx
funny how things change. This is how Fed staff assessed the risks to dollar after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 https://t.co/XydwiGbPI5
I used Claude to draw a chart that captures how I see the Fed's asymmetric reaction function towards oil. https://t.co/q9WcR7aCNC
The latest RiskReversal Podcast is out now with @pboockvar, CIO @onepointbfg🎙️ 🛢️ Is an Energy Crisis REALLY Priced In? 🤖 The End of the AI Trade As We Know It 🏦 Central Banks In Rate Cut Purgatory YouTube: https://t.co/qZocsifWUV Apple: https://t.co/8JgV8fbnuh Spotify: https://t.co/0G4Q2iLDO2
A new geopolitical equilibrium could emerge in the Middle East that includes almost constant kinetic action and YET markets could be OK with that. The 1980 Iran-Iraq war is a good example of that. All that matters is whether ships...
NEW: The US and China put parts of the global economy at risk in 2025 through their trade war over critical minerals & technology. Here I explore a novel path for Washington and Beijing to 'cooperate' over *HOW* they reduce their...
Euro Area consumer confidence plunged by 4 points from a month earlier to -16.3 in March 2026, the lowest since October 2023 @teconomics https://t.co/pdxVAqEF0L
Current Gulf production shut ins alone, if held at current levels through end-March, will result in roughly 200 million barrels of crude *not being produced* over the first ~30 days of the Iran War Not simply displaced supply, but barrels that...
At the height of the tariff stand-off with China in April 2025, Trump was essentially negotiating with himself - threatening escalation and then pulling back - while China stayed silent. We're at that stage now on Iran. China won the...
Thanks to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed’. As a result, countries worldwide are facing a gas supply CLIFF-EDGE. LNG from Qatar is NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/qE8zgTwxgC
I spoke with @GaryBohm5 'Metals and Miners' about the closure of the Strait: "It will affect everything that's produced by refined petroleum: the chemical and plastics industry, fertilizer. This supply shock will ripple through everything. There's nothing that isn't touched." https://t.co/SPZ9A1UMhy
