Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(jpeg)/GettyImages-182369493-ab6fd002e31c466ea0aa66fa80b61109.jpg)
A trade deficit occurs when a nation’s imports exceed its exports, creating a negative balance of trade across goods, services, or both. The deficit is recorded in the balance of payments and can influence currency values, foreign investment flows, and domestic demand. In 2023 the United States reduced its trade gap to $773.4 billion, a 2.8%‑of‑GDP improvement driven by higher services exports and lower imports. While deficits can expand consumer choice and attract capital, persistent gaps may raise concerns about foreign ownership and economic vulnerability.
I guess we are taking the President's remarks of 'productive' talks between the US and Iran at face value and not just a fear of hitting the 48 hour deadline and having to escalate with a market reaction... Dow has rebound...
The United States’ decision to engage militarily with Iran has sparked a sharp rise in global oil prices. Analysts argue that the price surge disproportionately benefits Russia, whose economy relies heavily on hydrocarbon exports. The influx of revenue bolsters Moscow’s...
A potential Iran‑related conflict has driven Brent crude near $113 a barrel, a 60% jump in less than a month and a 100% surge compared with pre‑war levels. JPMorgan’s historical analysis shows that when oil prices double, the S&P 500 typically...
The United States warned the European Union that failure to ratify the pending Energy Trade and Investment Agreement could jeopardize the preferential access EU importers currently enjoy for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). Washington’s message comes as Europe scrambles to...
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC he could envision the Federal Reserve raising interest rates if inflation accelerates amid the Middle‑East conflict, while also acknowledging the possibility of multiple rate cuts if price pressures ease. The Fed left policy...
NATO & US troops from Victoria Base in Baghdad have TAKEN THE EXIT DOOR. After the US regime change that took out Saddam Hussein 23 years ago, NATO & the US have determined Iraq is STILL TOO DANGEROUS A PLACE TO...
“We revise down our consumption forecasts by 30bp due to the oil shock, which more than offsets the 20bp boost we factored in from fiscal. Real consumption grows 1.7% (4Q/4Q) in 2026. Higher prices and slower labor income growth mean...
World Trade Organization members concur that structural reform is essential, yet they disagree on its shape. The 166‑nation bloc remains hamstrung by a unanimity‑required consensus rule, limiting its ability to adapt. Authors propose that trade ministers at the WTO’s 14th...
Wall Street opened higher on Monday after President Donald Trump announced a postponement of U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants, easing geopolitical tension. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 226.3 points (0.5%) to 45,803.82, the S&P 500 gained 68.5 points (1.05%)...
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov announced that the China‑Kyrgyzstan‑Uzbekistan (CKU) railway will be completed by 2030, linking Kashgar in China to Andijon in Uzbekistan through Kyrgyzstan. The line will integrate with Kyrgyzstan’s existing rail network around Issyk‑Kul and connect to Kazakhstan,...
Veteran oil trader Adi Imsirovic told the Beyond the Indus podcast that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, creating the most severe energy shock of his career. He argued that futures markets are underpricing the supply...
President Donald Trump announced a five‑day pause on U.S. strikes against Iranian energy targets and extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the Hormuz Strait, prompting a rally across U.S. equities. The S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all rose between...
Geopolitical tensions and climate shocks are reshaping the global food system, concentrating power in a handful of exporters. The United States remains the backbone of corn and soybean supplies, while Brazil has overtaken it in soy and dominates sugar, coffee...
Oil prices have surged as the Strait of Hormuz closure removes roughly 20% of global supply, double the impact of the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war. In the week of March 9, U.S. diesel jumped $0.96 per gallon to $4.86, marking the largest...
Mexico’s online counterfeit market surged dramatically last week, with sales estimated to have risen roughly 45% year‑over‑year. The spike coincides with a slowdown in government tax‑receipt growth, which rose only 2.6% in the first two months of 2025 versus a...
The Federal Reserve has signaled no rate cuts until late 2026, disappointing many investors. With rates expected to stay steady and inflation still above target, fixed‑income managers are seeking duration‑neutral options. WisdomTree’s Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR), a $16.66 billion ETF...
At the Exchange conference, DoubleLine deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman warned that the market’s expectation of a quick Fed rate cut—dubbed the TACO trade—is premature. He said the Fed will stay on autopilot until labor market weakness appears, and he pinpointed...
WTI Peaks and Recessions: $120 (2026), $147 (2008), $130 (2022) - WTI crude oil was near unchanged for the week ending March 20 despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining mostly closed, suggesting a potential topping process reminiscent of 2008. Roughly...
The war in the Middle East has shut the Strait of Hormuz, sending global oil prices soaring and causing farm diesel in the West of England to double to about £1.25 per litre. Fertiliser costs have jumped from £350 to...
This one is intuitive and goes without saying. But let’s say it anyway; “When oil spikes, food prices tend to follow” Do you know why?
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis poses a "major threat" to the global economy. The US‑Iran confrontation has nearly halted traffic through the waterway, which carries about 20% of world oil and...
Poland’s economy broke the $1 trillion GDP threshold, placing it among the world’s 20 largest economies, and posted a 3.6% growth rate in 2025 – the fastest among EU members in Q4. The surge follows a historic shift that began with...
In this episode the hosts drift from light‑hearted banter about coffee‑infused drinks, relationship quirks, and upcoming birthday celebrations to a brief segue into the looming "next inflation wave" and its potential impact on everyday expenses. They share personal anecdotes about...
Both the COVID-19 oil shock and the current Middle East oil shock (has) caused big moves in oil prices (Volatility), but for opposite reasons though. In 2020, demand absolutely collapsed because nobody was using or wanted as much oil as...
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the physical oil market is tighter than the financial oil market is reflecting, particularly for refined products. The scarcity, particularly in Asia, is “not fully priced in the oil futures curve,” he says. #CERAWeek
From December to January, US new home sales DROPPED by a STUNNING 17.6%. Sales were at their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. AMERICAN HOUSING MARKET = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/AMSqv9ZMsT
🤙🏻 Call me, beep me, if you want to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and unwind the largest energy supply shock in history to avoid a global depression.
I won't be surprised if we hear "Phase 1 of the peace deal is done"
🔴 Dow swings 1,600 points after Trump pauses Iran oil strikes - but the Strait of Hormuz risk isn't gone Oil. Gold. Rate hikes. I break it all down. Are you buying or selling into this move? Let me know below 👇 $DOW...
Goldman: "Higher energy prices will boost global headline inflation sharply in the next 1-2 months.... our country-specific rules of thumb imply that the shock will add 0.8pp to global headline inflation over the next year under our baseline and 2pp...
UK growth is set to halve after Iran war hit, economists warn https://t.co/pVqkfFM6HK via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/AFBqxbz3It
The basic geography of world trade is centered around three poles #1 EU, #2 China, #3 US. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/DG0iBZBvfZ
Hope you’ve had your coffee Futures are ripping to start the week S&P is up 1.5% pre market after Trump says the U.S. will pause further strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for 5 days Oil reacting fast, down 10% to $90 Big week ahead...
A back of napkin estimate (based on DOD spending on metals and the current price differential bt US and world market prices) indicates that the federal government wastes BILLIONS each year due to US steel, aluminum, & copper tariffs alone:...
The Iran war has in one respect followed a similar pattern to the trade war: Every time Trump leaned into his aggressive instincts, markets fell. This morning we see the opposite: When he backs off his aggressive instincts, markets rise....
Global LNG exports drop to the lowest level in six months due to Middle East conflict ⚠️ 🚢 This basically erases supply additions from the US and elsewhere during that period The drop is primarily from Qatar — and to a...
This isn't quite true -- at least not always. Under the initial Bretton Woods system capital outflows (including FDI) from the US provided the buildup of fx reserves globally; the US didn't run a current account deficit until the 70s. 1/2
The outage at the world’s biggest LNG export plant in Qatar is apparently benefiting Russia 🇷🇺 ⚠️ Russia’s largest LNG producer Novatek has signed a preliminary deal to supply Vietnam, Tass reported citing CEO Mikhelson (Vietnam is struggling to buy LNG...
Trump just gave Iran 24 hours. Reopen Hormuz. Or face strikes on power facilities. Iran's response: We'll hit every US energy and desalination plant in the Gulf. $SPY is not pricing a full energy war. It should be. https://t.co/wOxm8bXbEC
Threat of Massive Escalation of the War Drags Financial Markets Lower, While Lifting the Greenback: After seemingly teasing the market ahead of the weekend that he was considering “winding down” military operations, President Trump issued Iran an… https://t.co/t3mysRChOd https://t.co/SLD6N1BncI
Oil and energy commodities tumble after Trump postpones U.S. strikes against Iran energy infrastructure for five days: CNBC https://t.co/nO7poYHdmx
$SPY printed a Sky Scraper Candle after Trump says U.S. and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks: CNBC https://t.co/1sxKxOeC2e
An off ramp? A TACO? Another bait and switch? Brent cratered ~$16/bbl on Trump’s latest post talking about “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. https://t.co/6dfE8zEiRE
Question from a macro-ignorant options guy: Credit issues get better with sharply higher interest rates, right? https://t.co/UdR6NlJ6OR
Dow futures jump 1,200 points after Trump says U.S. and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks: CNBC https://t.co/ayLrxCx0Ot
there goes China +1 'de-risking' strategy. almost everyone else is dependent on imported oil to fuel manufacturing, which it turns out is another variable which can be disrupted by rage tweet
The U.S. has kicked off renegotiating NAFTA, but Canada was left out of the first round between Mexico and the U.S. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/FCIjtRSKp6 #nafta #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/t6Gl84ia32
We could be around 12 hours from a major escalation in the war on Iran. There is no appetite for risk. Bonds and stocks sold aggressively. Gold and silver offer no haven. The greenback is broadly higher....
