Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Africa Forward Summit Will Be Judged by What It Delivers
The Africa Forward Summit, co‑hosted by Kenya and France in May 2026, aims to turn rising global recognition of Africa into concrete outcomes. Organisers stress delivery on established priorities—infra‑structure, industrial capacity, digital investment and climate finance—rather than new declarations. The summit highlights Africa’s disproportionate climate risk and its renewable energy potential, urging more predictable financing. Its success will be judged by tangible investment and market‑access gains ahead of the G7 meeting in Evian.
Aon Warns Geopolitical Turmoil Could Shrink 2026 Buyer’s Market
Aon’s Q1 2026 Global Insurance Market Insights report cautions that escalating geopolitical volatility, especially in the Middle East, could quickly erode the soft, buyer‑friendly conditions that have characterized the commercial insurance market this year. The firm warns that delayed action...
The Real Trouble with the US Debt Topping 100 Percent of GDP
U.S. publicly held debt topped $31.3 trillion in March, reaching 100.2% of GDP—the first time since 1946. The surge pushes net interest payments above defense spending and is projected to grow to 4.6% of GDP by 2036. While other advanced economies...
US Push to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Tests Iran Ceasefire, Risks Oil Flow
The United States opened an "enhanced security area" in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing two American‑flagged merchant vessels to transit while Iran launched missiles, drones and small boats in retaliation. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf called the move a...
Over One Third of Small Businesses to “Reduce or Stop” Trading with EU
The Federation of Small Businesses reports that more than one‑third of UK SMEs are set to reduce or stop trading with the EU, citing divergent regulations, mounting red tape and rising compliance costs. Only 10% see growth opportunities in the...
Peace Over ‘Freedom’
U.S. gasoline prices rose to $4.55 per gallon, approaching the all‑time record of $5.01 set in June 2022. Amid the price surge, President Donald Trump suspended the two‑day‑old “Project Freedom” naval operation aimed at the Strait of Hormuz after clashes...
Business Ties and Financial Reform in Focus at Africa Forward
The Africa Forward summit in Nairobi, hosted by France, placed trade, investment and financial reform at the forefront. French President Emmanuel Macron and Kenyan President William Ruto pledged to boost private‑sector investment across health, education, digital technology, energy and infrastructure,...
US War Sentiment Eases, Asian Markets Surge
Positive, as another Trump easing drove stocks up in Asia. UK, German now both +2%. US futures pointing to another record high tonight. Gold and silver higher. Brent oil sharply 9% down, sitting just above $100. Seems like US are done...
Qatar LNG Under Constraint: Capacity Loss and Export Dislocation Shakes Global Gas Markets
Escalating regional conflict has damaged Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, cutting roughly 17% of its export capacity. The disruption also blocks tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting global LNG trade routes. Repairs to specialized equipment may take several...
US‑Iran Tensions Fail to Halt Oil Dip as Wall Street Hits Record Highs
U.S. and Iranian forces clashed in the Strait of Hormuz on May 5, 2026, yet Brent crude fell 4% to $109.87 a barrel. At the same time, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record‑high closes, buoyed by strong earnings from...
Financial Stability Depends on Global Collective Resilience
From the Financial Times column “We must be mindful of the risks of private credit,” by Andrew Bailey (Governor of the Bank of England and Chair of the Financial Stability Board): “We must remember that financial stability is a global...
US 30‑Year Treasury Yield Tops 5% as Investors Rush to High‑Yield Bonds
The 30‑year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.03% before settling at 5.01%, the first breach of the 5% threshold in a year. Investors poured into long‑dated bonds seeking the rare high coupon, while analysts warn the level could become a...
Jerome Powell’s Mixed Legacy
Jerome Powell will step down as Federal Reserve chair on May 15, 2026 after two terms marked by aggressive rate hikes and a high‑profile battle against inflation. He plans to remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors, a move that reinforces his...
Southern Yellow Pine Exports Rebound 47 Per Cent in March
U.S. exports of Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) lumber surged 47% year‑on‑year in March 2026, reaching 93,500 cubic metres. The average export price rose to $289 per cubic metre, a 5% increase from February and 2% above the March 2025 level....
Japanese Reselling of Australian LNG Challenges Energy Security Claims
Japanese traders resold an estimated 10.8‑13.6 million tonnes of Australian LNG in 2025, a volume that equals up to 1.5 times eastern Australia’s annual domestic gas consumption. Australia accounted for roughly 30% of all LNG resold by Japanese firms, making it the...
Philippines First to Lose a Grip on Iran War-Stoked Inflation
Philippine inflation surged to 7.2% year‑on‑year in April, roughly double the 3.4% Q1 growth, as oil and fertilizer price spikes from the Iran‑Israel conflict hit the economy. The jump is expected to push inflation toward 8% in the second quarter,...
Adnoc Appears to Export Second LNG Shipment Through Hormuz
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) appears to have exported a second LNG cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, using the Mraweh tanker bound for Japan. The vessel likely loaded the gas at the Das Island export plant, the same...
Potential Gulf Oil Surge If US‑Iran Deal Holds
IF the Axios report about a the US expecting a one-page MOU with Iran to end the war is true... And IF Iran confirms... And IF it is indeed signed... And IF it is honoured... And IF negotiations to reopen SoH succeed in the...
The Chinese EV Standard Winning Globally Is Banned in the U.S.
On March 17 the United States prohibited any vehicle with Chinese‑developed software from being sold domestically, a rule that takes effect for new models arriving in July 2025. Chinese EV makers, led by BYD, dominate global markets by integrating batteries, chips...
UK Gilts Rise on Oil Dip Amid US‑Iran Deal Hopes
A better morning for UK gilts as oil prices fall sharply after a US media report that America and Iran are “very close” to a deal. While the drop in yields is welcome, expect continued volatility in the days ahead, driven...
Middle East Conflict Set to Test ASEAN Unity as Leaders Gather in Cebu for Summit
ASEAN leaders convene in Cebu amid the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict that threatens global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The summit’s agenda is dominated by energy security, with member states weighing the impact of disrupted supplies on their economies....
US Yield Rise Pressures Indian Stocks, Watch 10‑Year
Rising US bond yields have had a negative effect on Indian stock markets in the recent period since 2024. This pattern may persist till it does not. Right now US yields are nudging higher and that is a pressure point...
UAE's OPEC Exit Increases Volatility, Needs US Action
In my latest @nytimes oped, I argue UAE exit from OPEC may not be the win Trump thinks it is. A weaker OPEC could mean more volatility, which is economically costly. The US should take steps to cushion shocks &...
EU Cyber Plan Barring Chinese Suppliers Will Cost US$430 Billion: Report
The European Union is set to adopt a new Cybersecurity Act that would bar Chinese hardware from critical infrastructure such as telecoms, energy grids, and transport networks. A recent study estimates the required replacement of Chinese equipment will cost the...
Tuareg‑Al Qaeda Alliance Forces Russians Out of Sahel
The Russians are getting the boot from the Sahel, and it's all thanks to an unusual alliance between Tuareg separatists and a local branch of Al-Qaeda. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/C3CKmswVyy #russia #geopolitics https://t.co/Kz24SrFroY
Risk Appetite Soars as US Halts Hormuz Escort, Dollar Falls
The US has suspended the escort service in the Strait of Hormuz and risk-appetites have jump. Equities and bonds have surged, while the greenback slumps. China re-opens and set USD fix at new multiyear low. See https://t.co/swSYFvpDgy https://t.co/UUCWRyRfJ8
South African Private Sector Growth Hits 44-Month High
South Africa’s private sector posted its strongest growth in 44 months, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index climbing to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March. The rise was driven by higher sales, a surge in export orders—especially to...
ECB's Gold Revaluation Gains €18.9 Bn From Price Surge
Just catching up on the ECB's 2025 accounts which were out earlier this week and see the gold revaluation account got a nice €18.9 billion uplift from the rise in the price of gold. https://t.co/DDpMzCZMqv
Weak OPEC Fuels More Frequent Global Boom‑bust Cycles
"A less effective OPEC might seem a blessing when prices fall, but it would force the world to endure more frequent booms and busts." by @JasonBordoff https://t.co/BwcxkY65AH
COMMENT: Iran War’s Geopolitical Risks Alone Is Not Enough to Cause a Global Recession
Oxford Economics’ Ben May argues that the recent surge in the Geopolitical Risk index, driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict and the Gulf war, is unlikely to become the main catalyst for a global recession. While the war has tightened energy...
Macro Breadth Returns: Lower Rates and Oil Boost EPS
Today’s backdrop is the broadest macro & micro backdrop we’ve seen since 2021. While AI themes remain dominant, a more classic macro broadening has been taking place since 4Q/25, for the first time in years. Lower rates/oil can help to...
Easing Tensions Historically Trigger Bond Price Declines
i'm old enough to remember the days when headlines suggesting easing tensions and less uncertainty would mean bond prices fell... https://t.co/KaynvMrU0Q
Research: UK Official Holdings of International Reserves: April 2026
Britain’s monthly statistical release shows that official international reserves reached £210 bn (approximately $260 bn) in April 2026, up from £207 bn the month before. Gold holdings climbed to 310 t, while foreign‑currency assets slipped 2 % as the euro weakened against the dollar. IMF‑related assets...
Sweden, Norway Hold Rates Amid Divergent Inflation Paths
Central banks in Sweden and Norway are both set to keep borrowing costs steady this week, albeit against inflation backdrops that contrast starkly between each neighbor https://t.co/iUgLSEz7vW via @ottummelas @CharlesDuxbury https://t.co/BrSbkWSLKj
Mini‑deals Could Unlock Billions in EU Export Growth
#tradeXpresso: today @EP_Trade puts mini-deals on top of @Trade_EU agenda. Rightly so. EU has lots of mini-deals. Mostly invisible, but shaping bn in trade. My take: more mini-deals (e.g. Korea #MRA) can boost EU export gains. https://t.co/0b6O5H74an @MarosSefcovic @berndlange https://t.co/7f76GiEiYh
New Data Release: ECB Wage Tracker Indicates Negotiated Wage Pressures Stable in 2026
The European Central Bank released its May 2026 wage‑tracker update, covering collective‑bargaining agreements through mid‑April. The headline tracker, which smooths one‑off payments, shows negotiated wage growth of 2.3% for 2026, while the unsmoothed version indicates 2.6% and the version excluding one‑off...
Oil Retreats as Gold, Silver Rally Amid Hormuz News
headlines suggest a ship got through Hormuz... market sells off oil to buy gold & silver... https://t.co/m7V4eqZnEK
UK Firms Add Fuel Surcharges Amid Rising Input Costs
UK firms impose fuel surcharges as input costs soar, PMI shows https://t.co/FVlBS5sjzs via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/FqfXhAepo9
ADB Warns Asian Economies Against Broad Fuel Subsidies, Tax Cuts Amid Oil Price Risks
The Asian Development Bank warned Asian governments that broad fuel subsidies and excise‑duty cuts could jeopardize fiscal health as crude oil prices stay high. It emphasized preserving fiscal space, avoiding export controls, and shifting to targeted cash transfers for the...
UK Growth Steady, Inflation Surges, Rate Hike Needed
@Robwoodecon on the UK PMIs -> "Growth holds up and inflation rockets, the MPC will need to hike."
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Hinges on Immediate MOU Deal
According to the @Axios report, the Strait of Hormuz would only re-open "gradually" during a 30-day period of negotiations *if* an initial deal on a single page memorandum of understanding can be achieved in the next few hours/days. https://t.co/Ak6nBF0FRK
France’s Manufacturing Bounce May Prove Short-Lived
French manufacturing output rose 1.2% month‑on‑month in March, lifting total industrial production 1% after February’s decline. The rebound was driven by inventory buildup and a short‑term competitiveness edge as Asian rivals faced energy disruptions. However, weak domestic and export demand...
ADNOC's Second Covert LNG Shipment Routes Through Hormuz
Adnoc appears to have discreetly exported another LNG shipment via Hormuz 🇦🇪🚢 Mraweh was empty when it stopped transmitting its location east of Hormuz in April. Then it reappeared today loaded, heading to Japan If confirmed, would be 2nd LNG export via...
UK Long-Term Borrowing Costs Reach 1998 High
UK long-term borrowing costs hit their HIGHEST LEVELS since 1998. RUSSOPHOBE STARMER IS CAPTAINING A SINKING SHIP. https://t.co/BBGoJG8ZMz
Stranded for 60 Days Waiting for an All-Clear that Isn’t Coming
Seafarers have been anchored in the Strait of Hormuz for more than sixty days because the maritime industry has failed to create a coordinated response, not due to vessel damage or cargo disputes. The stalemate reflects a strategic posture by...
ECB Wage Tracker Stays Stable, No Second‑round Inflation Signs
🇪🇺 Latest update to the ECB's wage tracker has remained broadly stable around levels consistent with price stability, and showing no signs of second-round effects. https://t.co/lReQ51MJvs https://t.co/50YJRx98ru
Aging Migrant Workforce Shifts to Low-Pay Service Jobs
1/3 Another very interesting Caixin article, this time on migrant workers: "China’s migrant workforce is aging as more workers move into lower-paying service jobs, putting pressure on income growth amid a shifting economic landscape." https://t.co/0caseuTyjM
China Urges EU to Drop Discriminatory Investment Rules
China Daily: "China has called on the EU to remove discriminatory requirements against foreign investors, local content mandates, compulsory transfers of intellectual property and technology, and restrictions on public procurement." https://t.co/WiZSoHM4tE
Pakistani Debt Soars 55% in Four Years
#PAKWatch🇵🇰: Pakistani debt and liabilities are UP 55% in the last 4 years. PAK = MISMANAGEMENT = CAN’T COMPETE WITH INDIA. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/214ychMmR8
China’s Wind Surge Outpaces Global Capacity, Proves Prescient
NYT: "Last year, China installed three times as much wind power capacity as the rest of the world combined, even as its turbine exports jumped. The war has made China’s investments in wind look prescient." https://t.co/9AvdVUmIDM