Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
In this episode, Argus senior reporter Elife Iboğlu and Tolga Yi Tekiciler, procurement manager at Tatmetal, discuss Turkey’s flat steel market amid tightening EU anti‑dumping and origin rules, upcoming EU quota cuts, and the loss of the UK’s galvanized‑steel exemption. They highlight the need for Turkish mills to diversify away from Russian hot‑rolled coil, shift export focus toward North Africa, the Middle East, West Africa and Latin America, and brace for higher freight and energy costs if Gulf routes are disrupted. Tekiciler also notes that recent anti‑dumping duties on Chinese and South Korean imports are crucial for protecting domestic producers, but further trade measures may be needed to sustain the industry.
Operation Epic Fury’s Feb. 28 strikes on Iran have forced a massive reroute of global container traffic, shifting roughly 90% of Suez‑Canal flows to the Cape of Good Hope. The detour adds 10‑14 days to voyages, cuts effective vessel capacity by...
Rising oil prices sparked by the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran are prompting consumers worldwide to consider electric vehicles as a cost‑effective alternative. Analysts say the price shock could accelerate EV adoption, directly benefiting Chinese automakers who recently overtook Japan as...
The US‑Israel war in Iran has sent oil, gas, aluminum and fertilizer prices sharply higher, pushing global inflation expectations upward. Elevated energy costs are already biting manufacturers, farmers and freight carriers from India to Italy, while the conflict has forced...
Important nuance before assuming the stage is set for US-Iran negotiations: ❓ How unified is Iran’s top leadership at present — across the legislative branch, the military (especially the IRGC), and the religious establishment? ❓ Does Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hold...
Goldman Sachs increased its average Brent crude forecast for March‑April 2026 to $110 a barrel after the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut for three weeks. The move reflects a widening supply gap that has already pushed spot Brent to $114.09...
Tisco Financial warns that a 10% rise in crude oil from a $72‑per‑barrel baseline could trim Thailand's GDP growth by 0.3‑0.4 percentage points and lift inflation by roughly 0.8%. The surge also strains the Oil Fuel Fund, which subsidises diesel...
I’m wondering if the news media can muster up an article or report about the Strait of Hormuz, how big it is at its narrowest point and why it’s such a critically strategic waterway to oil trade…. I haven’t heard...
The world has lost nearly a billion barrels of oil production, writes @ericnuttall They're gone for good That resets the baseline for oil prices The idea that crude just slides back to $60 once the shooting stops reflects a PROFOUND IGNORANCE about...
The episode examines how the Middle East conflict is rippling through global energy markets, from plunging oil prices to strained LNG supplies and rising fuel costs in places like the Philippines. Experts Walter Todd, Ira Joseph, and Ray Coyle explain...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 86% against the USD over the past year. The only thing that will salvage Venezuela is DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/HsoegSMSO1
Despite some accounts on this app implying that all oil that Iran has shipped is already sold…that is not the case. Some oil is shipped and is floating storage…to then be sold later. This does not mean the USTs...
President Trump announced a five‑day postponement of planned strikes on Iranian power infrastructure, saying recent talks with Tehran were “very good and productive.” Iran’s parliament speaker rejected the claim, stating no negotiations had taken place and accusing the United States...
Ocean container imports are just starting to roll in from CNY. This index tracks container at the point of bookings, which take about 3 weeks from bookings date to hit US ports. It is updated daily. In coming weeks, we will...
Tariff taxes are raising costs for businesses and squeezing workers. As Governor, I want policies that strengthen U.S. manufacturing, lower costs, and create stable jobs—not add uncertainty and expenses. https://sentinelcolorado.com/nation-world/nation/trumps-tariffs-are-hurting-american-manufacturers-instead-of-helping-them/
The White House is reportedly positioning Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad‑Reza Ghalibaf, as a potential US‑backed leader, signaling a possible diplomatic pivot. President Trump has postponed planned strikes on Iranian power plants, describing recent talks with Tehran as “very good.” The...
The White House, under the Trump administration, is reportedly evaluating Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as a potential partner and future US‑backed leader. Ghalibaf, who currently chairs the Majlis, is seen as a workable figure who could steer Iran in negotiations...
China’s Hainan province is pivoting from a beach‑tourism‑centric economy to a broader, sustainable growth model anchored by its new designation as a free‑trade port. Recent customs reforms will streamline cross‑border clearance, lower tariffs and introduce a “single window” system for...
I spend a lot of time tracking dollar reserve growth. Probably more time than anyone at the Fund. And I absolutely believe that the surge in reserve growth contributed to the rise in imbalances before the...
Tensions in the Middle East remain high as the United States and Iran stepped back from a potential escalation on Monday. ADNOC chief Sultan al‑Jaber denounced Iran’s continued control of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as “economic terrorism” during...
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a bilateral understanding with Singapore’s leader Lawrence Wong to maintain the flow of essential fuels such as diesel and liquefied natural gas. The pledge comes as both countries confront tightening global fuel supplies and...
Ray Dalio told the World Governments Summit in Dubai that the global monetary system is entering a "capital war" and that gold is now the safest form of money. He linked the erosion of fiat currencies and sovereign debt to...
President Donald Trump claimed that preliminary peace talks with Iran were underway and that a deal could be reached within five days. Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf refuted the claim, stating no negotiations have occurred and accusing the US...
Admiral James Stavridis, vice‑chairman of Carlyle, says investors are already mapping out opportunities in a post‑war Iran, citing a roughly two‑thirds chance that negotiations will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and revive oil trade. He likens Iran’s potential reconstruction to South...
Refined product shipments on medium‑range tankers from the US Gulf to Europe broke the $100 per tonne barrier for the first time in nearly two decades, reaching $108.08/t on a Worldscale 545 voyage. The surge is linked to Iran's de‑facto...
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) launched in 2015 with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, promising a common market and higher living standards. A new study by Dr. Zhanibek Arynov and Diyas Takenov surveyed public opinion in Armenia, Kazakhstan and...
What impacts might the war in Iran have on the CUSMA review? #canada🇨🇦 #trade #canada #tariffs #energy
The author highlights a rapid crude oil rally from $70 to $120 per barrel, which shattered the market’s prevailing rate‑cut consensus in just a week. Simultaneously, short‑term rates shifted dramatically—SONIA jumped 45 basis points and EURIBOR flipped from pricing cuts...
The Straits of Hormuz and maritime generally is THE story of the war with Iran. Iran cannot be left in charge of the Straits and choke the world. I recorded a special episode of Invested with @AmiDaniel1, founder & CEO...
Month two. No de-escalation. More troops. Kharg Island occupation being planned. In my experience, markets that price short conflicts and get long ones reprice quickly and painfully. Kharg Island handles 90%+ of Iran's oil exports. The implicit assumption built into current market prices...
President Donald Trump announced a five‑day pause on planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, citing "productive conversations" with Tehran. The talks, led by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reportedly involved Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad‑Bagher Ghalibaf, though Iran publicly denied...
Goldman Sachs: Brace for worldwide inflation surge. The supply shortages created with the Iran war. What will that do to demand, China & other exports, inventory, supply chains, and logistics? Especially the transportation modes.
Johns Hopkins PhD Trita Parsi is on to something. What Parsi reports helps explain why the Iranian Rial has soared by 12% against the USD during the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Thai authorities are negotiating with the United States to address the 10 % global tariff and a Section 301 investigation that could trigger new duties, while preparing a written response by mid‑April. The U.S. tariff expires in July, intensifying the urgency of...
GS: Over the Past 40 Years, Even Major Oil Price Shocks Did Not Leave Long-Lasting Effects on Consumer Inflation Expectations https://t.co/8naRIKCG9F
GS: We Estimate That the Boost from Commodity Price Increases to Year-Over-Year Core PCE Inflation Will Peak Around 0.35pp in 2026Q4 in Our Baseline Scenario https://t.co/e4Hp5utn1j
“Ending the War Doesn’t End the Crisis”: Middle East Ceasefire Risks | A... https://t.co/bDlWKuJTVz via @YouTube
No matter how you slice it, the United States stands to gain the most from the Hormuz crisis—but keep the timeframes separate, or the picture gets muddled fast. 👇👇👇
Middle Eastern liquified natural gas (LNG) might not come to Europe till June, and why speculative hoarding of oil is a serious concern going forward, per top shipping/energy hedge fund in shipping and energy trading A must watch
Scenario guidance is going to take some getting used to. Especially when the BoE gets hold of it, and each member of the MPC sets out their own different scenarios (3 scenarios each, 9 members) 🤣
Latest episode of our Trading Global Macro Podcast: From Hormuz to Washington DC: Recalibrating the 2026 Rate Outlook https://t.co/SWQ3mEPyhx
Leaving Canada high and dry could backfire, as the U.S. benefits greatly from Canadian manufacturing. We'll see how the strategy changes throughout these NAFTA negotiations. #NAFTA #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/G5bk8aSGAU
The risk of an escalation in the Gulf seem reduced for at least a few days. So maybe there will be a bit of interest in my (somewhat novel) reevaluation of the relative contribution of Europe and China...
To give a scale of the sense of fertilizer disruption: The 13.5 Million tons of Urea behind Strait of Hormuz is 1/4th of global exports. This is the equivalent of 87% of U.S. corn production. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc https://t.co/a0azQFg63V
#tradeXpresso: with the WTO #MC14 around the corner, let’s have a poll about the future of multilateralism in Tomorrowland. What do you see as the most likely scenario for #TradePolicy3.0? Not really sure what I mean? Click here first: https://t.co/lGxTVEATfb
This is a very good macro framework to adopt😂 This is the 1's & 0's of which experts to trust.
Jet fuel prices have DOUBLED to over $200/barrel since the Iran war. Asian airlines and energy suppliers face MAJOR SHORTAGES. SIGNS OF A MAJOR CRISIS ARE APPEARING: Thousands of flights have already been canceled AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO...
"We estimate that a modest increase in private credit default rates to 3-4% (the lower end of the range for leveraged loans in prior credit cycles) would result in a small drag on GDP of about 0.1%." - Goldman
Non-consensus view here @fejau_inc @qthomp ... Feels like short term inflation expectations are likely making a top here. Obviously this has a lot to do with oil. If oil can't go any higher on the headlines now, time to pay attention.......
👉 Fear index Vix tumbles w/oil on Trump’s softer Iran tone. Reality check: both still elevated vs. pre-war. This isn’t calm – it’s just less panic. https://t.co/1L2wIolJnp
