Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
African leaders are using the WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé to demand fairer trade rules, focusing on agriculture, e‑commerce and green industrialisation. They aim to curb subsidised imports, boost digital trade infrastructure and secure flexible carbon‑pricing mechanisms. The conference arrives amid a 15‑year stalemate at the WTO and weak implementation of Special and Differential Treatment. By tapping the Enhanced Integration Framework’s third phase, Africa seeks funding and technical assistance to shift from raw‑commodity exports to higher‑value products.
Citco’s latest performance snapshot shows hedge funds posted gains in February before the Ukraine war escalated. While exact return figures were not disclosed, the data underscores a brief rally in an industry managing roughly $5 trillion of assets worldwide.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said President Donald Trump's recent announcement of talks with Iran could represent a turning point in the ongoing Middle East conflict. Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States and Iran held “very good...
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the global economy faces a major threat from tightening energy markets. He cited recent oil price volatility, green hydrogen deals and geopolitical tensions as key drivers of the risk.
President Donald Trump announced a five‑day delay to planned strikes on Iran’s power grid and energy plants, citing “very good and productive conversations.” The pause comes as Iran’s energy infrastructure faces ongoing attacks, tempering volatility in global oil and gas...
The Federal Reserve paused its easing cycle in March, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50‑3.75% after three consecutive quarter‑point cuts. This “hawkish hold” arrives amid a wartime‑style energy shock that could lift headline inflation by 0.8 percentage points and...
The Philippines, which imports over 90% of its petroleum, faces a potential fuel shortage if Middle East tensions disrupt global oil routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz. DOE Secretary Sharon Garin warned that gasoline stocks could last about 64 days...
The Saxo Market Call dissected the market fallout from former President Donald Trump's surprise social‑media announcement that he was pulling back a 48‑hour ultimatum to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, a move that temporarily lowered oil prices and sparked massive crude‑futures...
Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 50.5 in March, the lowest level in ten months, down from 51.9 in February. Manufacturing output remained modestly positive at 51.7, while the services PMI slipped to 50.1, indicating contraction. Input prices rose sharply as...
In this episode, Keith Bradshirp explains how China has become virtually tariff‑proof by rapidly expanding its advanced, robot‑driven manufacturing capacity. The discussion highlights four key factors: diversification of export markets, indirect shipments through third‑party countries, a deliberately weakened yuan, and,...
Goldman Sachs’ latest research argues that even if private‑credit defaults surge to 10%—a level seen during the 2008‑09 financial crisis—the macroeconomic fallout would be modest, trimming U.S. GDP by only 20‑50 basis points. The sector, with roughly $1.7 trillion in leveraged...
The EU‑Australia free trade agreement was finally signed, ending a protracted dispute over geographical indications (GIs). Australia will protect 396 EU GIs, including the Prosecco designation, while still allowing the term “Prosecco” to be used as a grape‑variety name within...
The Philippine Stock Exchange index edged higher on March 24, gaining 37.02 points (0.63%) to close at 5,936.20, led by mining stocks as gold prices rose, while trading volume slipped to 634 million shares worth roughly $102 million. The rally was sparked by...
One of the foundations of the US reserve currency status is the 1970s Nixon-KSA agreement that the US provides military protection in return for recycling of Petrodollars into the US bond market. When President Trump says things like that "we...
In this Rapid Response episode, Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen explains how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is rippling through global trade, driving up oil and air‑freight costs while leaving container shipping relatively unscathed. He highlights secondary crises such...
With the Iran conflict now in its 4th week, an important angle worth noting: President Trump’s family business (Trump Organization) has substantial licensing deals across the GCC - Trump Towers, hotels & golf resorts in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar & Oman,...
KPMG UK’s latest Economic Outlook warns that Britain’s GDP growth will slow sharply to 0.7% in 2026, half the pace expected for 2025, as rising energy prices and a weaker jobs market bite. A fresh shock to wholesale energy costs,...
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a five‑day pause on military strikes against Iranian energy assets, claiming productive talks toward ending the Middle East conflict, while Iran refuted any negotiations. Analysts say the Strait of Hormuz remains only partially open, with...
African policymakers are urged to adopt a "coastal‑first" development strategy, mirroring China’s early focus on seaports and special economic zones. The article argues that concentrating investment in coastal hubs lowers trade costs, attracts foreign direct investment, and creates surplus revenues...
On 23 March 2026 the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Minister for Pensions convened a meeting with economists from the primary dealer firms that act as wholesale gilt‑edged market makers (GEMMs) at HM Treasury. The session focused on the participants’ views...
The IMF’s COFER database shows the U.S. dollar still commands roughly 60% of global foreign‑exchange reserves, keeping its status as the premier reserve currency. Over the past decade the euro and Chinese yuan have inched upward, while the British pound...
STG Logistics released a new industry survey highlighting three emerging trends: shippers are diversifying their sourcing portfolios, demanding greater contract flexibility, and re‑engineering logistics networks to cope with volatile freight markets. Over 60% of respondents plan to add alternative carriers,...
The episode reviews Tuesday’s market outlook, focusing on how geopolitics—especially President Trump’s remarks about renewed U.S.-Iran talks and the still‑closed Strait of Hormuz—are driving oil prices and, in turn, equities, bonds, and the dollar. Crude’s recent dip below $88 per...
South Korea and Mongolia are working to accelerate a stalled comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) that would deepen cooperation on critical minerals. Negotiations have been at an impasse since November 2024 over market‑opening concerns and rules of origin. Korean trade officials...
Growth is accelerating, but not where most expect. Moldova is projected to lead global GDP per capita growth with +53% by 2030. Alongside countries like Guyana and Turkmenistan, emerging economies dominate the percentage rankings. But the more interesting signal is where speed meets scale. Countries...
Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 Indian growth outlook to 5.9%, down from a pre‑war 7% estimate, citing higher oil prices and prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now projects inflation at 4.6% and expects the Reserve Bank...
Japan announced it will release roughly 80 million barrels of crude from its strategic reserves starting 26 March, supplementing a 15‑day private‑sector release earlier in the month. The drawdown will be executed across 11 sites nationwide, bringing Japan’s total contribution to the...
Central banks are increasing gold purchases as geopolitical tensions and de‑dollarisation drive a safe‑haven shift, according to World Gold Council (WGC) executive Shaokai Fan. Guatemala, Indonesia and Malaysia have entered or re‑entered the market, signaling broader reserve‑strategy changes. Gold prices...
Indian government bond yields slipped on Tuesday as Brent crude hovered above $100 a barrel and U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields steadied near 4.40%, the sharpest sell‑off since October 2023. The benchmark 2035 bond yield was expected to trade between 6.81%...
Japan will tap the largest ever portion of its strategic oil stockpiles, releasing 80 million barrels – enough for 45 days of domestic demand – as the US‑Israel war on Iran threatens tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The move...
China’s Belt and Road and the China‑ASEAN FTA have made Southeast Asia its largest trading partner, with roughly $126 bn of Chinese investment over the past decade. Yet the region’s trade deficit with Beijing has swelled to about $140 bn in 2024...
The Iran war has choked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting shipments of fertilizer and liquefied natural gas that underpin global food production. About one‑third of seaborne fertilizer, 35% of nitrogen‑based urea and 45% of sulfur exports now face delays, pushing...
New Zealand will begin a one‑year cash‑payment scheme on 1 April, giving roughly 150,000 low‑income families an extra NZ$50 (about US$30) per week to offset soaring fuel costs. The boost is delivered through an expansion of the in‑work tax credit and...
Westpac projects Australia’s February CPI to rise 0.1% month‑on‑month, keeping the annual rate at 3.8% for a third straight month. Underlying inflation measured by the trimmed mean is expected at 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y, indicating persistent price pressures. The...
The Competitive Europe Summit convened policymakers, industry leaders, and experts to assess the EU’s renewed push for competitiveness. Central themes included cutting red tape, accelerating industrial capacity, and rebranding the single market to spur growth. Attendees also debated how geopolitical...
The US never thought through the possibility of an oil shock before its attacks, says @BarakRavid That's why it's lifting sanctions on Iran's oil That's not strategy That's trying to hide your mistakes And Iran still gets value from those barrels one way...
GS: We Estimate Based on Reported Vessel Counts that Average Daily Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz Are Down 98% From Their Normal Levels (4-Day Moving Average) https://t.co/af4DPzafNM
Asian corporate bond markets rallied on Tuesday as geopolitical tension eased following President Donald Trump’s remarks about ongoing talks with Iran. Credit default swaps on investment‑grade Asian debt fell by at least four basis points, signaling reduced perceived risk. At...
Great conversation with Nicolai Tangen on the In Good Company podcast. From the uncertainty created by the war in the Middle East to the impact of AI and the importance of central bank independence, we covered a lot of ground. Listen...
African export restrictions on battery metals are a blow to Chinese companies that have spent billions of dollars developing mines there to dominate supplies https://t.co/yoI9r6fpaN
Japan’s February consumer‑price inflation slowed to 1.3% YoY, driven by lower fresh‑food and utility costs, while core‑core inflation stayed near 2.5% above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Wage negotiations indicate a 5.26% average increase, and PMI readings remain in...
% min until the first EZ PMIs start to trickle in for March, with ERZ6 pricing in three hikes for this year. Let's see whether the latter holds. Remember,that the PMIs will tend to import this shock as "strength" via...
Almost 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports came from Qatar last year. Now, PAK import terminals are close to shutting down. Pakistan may be forced to turn to more EXPENSIVE and DIRTIER furnace oil to generate power. PAKISTAN SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR...
President Donald Trump postponed a threatened strike on Iran, prompting a brief market rally, but analysts quickly shifted focus to the memory‑chip sector. AI‑driven demand for high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced DRAM has turned the traditionally cyclical memory market into...
Xinhua: "Chinese automakers have surpassed their Japanese counterparts in global vehicle sales for the first time, marking a significant shift in the global automotive industry." https://t.co/PtNMiJISii
Now, after the third incident of price manipulation, oil prices are rising again. Bent is about $104/b.
UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber urged multinational corporations and governments to convene an international working session on the resilience of the global energy system, citing Iran’s recent attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and the...
China cuts some hi-tech metals sent to Japan – but magnet exports rise. Why? https://t.co/7TeFEq0KsX
"Takaichi Orders Review of Entire Supply Chain for Oil Products" I suspect the review will find that about 90-95% of #Japan’s oil imports come from Middle Eastern countries... https://t.co/hjPmFeOPov
One of the many lies about Iran that has been generated in Washington, D.C., and other Western capitals is that, before the current US-Israeli attack on Iran, Iran's economy was in a state of collapse. NOT TRUE. JUST TAKE A GLANCE AT...
