Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Australia, Japan Commit $1.67 Bn to Boost Critical Minerals Supply Chains
Australia and Japan announced a joint declaration that earmarks up to $1.3 bn from Australia and $370 m from Japan to accelerate critical‑minerals projects. The move aims to diversify supply chains for rare earths, lithium and other strategic resources, reinforcing both economies’ energy‑transition goals.
European Gas Traders Buy Options Betting on €100/MWh Winter Spike
European natural‑gas traders have snapped up options contracts that price a winter benchmark at up to €100 per megawatt‑hour, more than double today’s level. The move signals growing concern that the Middle‑East conflict will choke supplies and force inventories to...
Indonesia Posts 5.6% Q1 Growth Amid Iran‑Related Energy Crisis
Indonesia's Statistics Agency reported a 5.61% year‑on‑year rise in first‑quarter 2026 GDP, beating Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal forecasts. The expansion came despite a regional energy shock tied to the Iran‑related conflict, highlighting the resilience of the Southeast Asian giant.
How the Iran War Is Affecting Latin America and the Caribbean’s Economic Outlook
The Iran war has triggered a fresh energy shock by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas. Latin America and the Caribbean are seeing inflation expectations rise as higher fuel, fertilizer and food...
Nigeria’s Naira Surges as CBN Reserves Hit $46.7 Bn After Rate Cut
The Central Bank of Nigeria raised its foreign‑exchange reserves to $46.7 bn and trimmed its policy rate, prompting a pronounced rally in the naira. Analysts see the move as a test of Nigeria’s reform agenda and a potential catalyst for renewed...
USD/CHF Climbs to 0.7840 as Traders Brace for Swiss CPI and Geopolitical Flare‑up
The USD/CHF pair edged up to around 0.7840 during Asian trading, marking a third straight session of modest gains. Traders are positioning ahead of Switzerland's April consumer‑price index and reacting to a firmer US dollar supported by rising Treasury yields...
India’s Bank Credit Surges 15.9% in FY26, Driven by Services and Retail Lending
India’s scheduled commercial banks expanded non‑food credit to ₹212.9 lakh crore ($2.6 trillion) in FY26, a 15.9% year‑on‑year rise. Growth was led by services and personal‑loan segments, reflecting strong domestic demand amid low‑interest rates and a government‑backed capex push.
Not All Oil Giants Are Prospering From the Iran War
Oil prices have surged amid the Iran‑Russia conflict, with Brent averaging $118 per barrel in Q1 2026, far above analysts’ $60 forecast. While the higher price environment should lift all majors, U.S. giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron are seeing only modest margin...
U.S. Debt Exceeds 100% of GDP
U.S. publicly held federal debt reached $31.27 trillion at the end of March, putting the debt‑to‑GDP ratio at 100.2%, the highest level since World War II. The figure represents an eightfold increase from 2000 and sits $8 trillion below the total federal debt...
Q1 2026: Different Signal, Same Noise
The first quarter of 2026 was split between a decoupled global economy and a war‑driven oil shock that reshaped market focus. Deglobalization heightened the risk‑management value of geographic diversification, while volatile oil prices curbed consumer spending and investment. AI is...
The Old Ceiling, the New Floor
Core CPI has moved from a decade‑long sub‑2.5% ceiling (2010‑2019) to a new floor, staying above that threshold in 57 of the last 63 months, including a 56‑month streak since April 2021. The shift reflects higher wage growth, rising unit...
What if We Used Taxes or Superannuation to Control Inflation, Not Interest Rates?
Australian policymakers are debating whether fiscal tools—tax adjustments or superannuation levies—could complement the Reserve Bank’s interest‑rate strategy to curb inflation. Historical evidence shows a 10% income‑tax surcharge in 1951 curbed 23.9% inflation but sparked a recession, highlighting trade‑offs. Economists propose...
Daily Energy Report
Oil markets tumbled on May 6 after Axios reported a near‑final US‑Iran memorandum of understanding that could end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude dropped more than 13%, briefly slipping below $100 per barrel to around $98...
Navigating the Many Issues Surrounding China’s Ports Abroad
China’s overseas‑port strategy has expanded to more than two dozen nations, where Chinese firms act as builders, financiers, operators and investors. Host governments tout expected gains in cargo capacity, surrounding economic zones, jobs and foreign‑exchange earnings, while critics highlight debt...
Fed Data Shows Global Supply Chain Pressure Hits 4-Year High
The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) jumped to 1.82 in April, its highest reading since July 2022. The surge follows the Iran‑Israel conflict, which has disrupted freight routes and pushed fuel prices higher. Fed President John...
Is the Iran War Pushing Southeast Asia Into China’s Arms?
The Iran‑War‑induced energy shock has exposed Southeast Asian economies to fuel shortages and soaring costs, despite their security ties to the United States. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency and is scrambling for a 1 million‑barrel buffer, while Vietnam is...
Trump Claims Deal with Iran to Reopen Hormuz: Update
President Donald Trump announced a tentative peace deal with Iran that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the U.S. "Epic Fury" operation. Iran's foreign ministry said it is still reviewing the U.S. proposal, labeling some clauses unacceptable. Crude...
Services, Not Manufacturing, Drive Mass Income Growth
despite what your local politicians tell you, the path to higher income for large populations is the services sector, not manufacturing. v useful dataviz on the long term labor market
War Triggers Market Plunge; Ceasefire Sparks Rally
Incredible. Starting a definitive war with tangible economic consequences led to a -8.5% drop in the S&P 500 at its nadir. And, announcing a questionable ceasefire with inevitable carry over economic throttling (best case) has led to an 11.3% rally... https://t.co/EjAJPCTMjQ
Fed's Goolsbee: Impact of Rising Productivity on Inflation Remains Active Topic of Debate
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that the relationship between rising productivity and inflation remains unsettled. He noted that while higher output could ease price pressures, it may also trigger spending‑driven inflation if households anticipate higher future incomes. Goolsbee highlighted...
Russians Fill French Void in Mali, Face Control Challenges
When the French withdrew from the region, the Russians stepped in and picked up operations. However, maintaining control in the region is no easy feat, and the Russians are figuring that out. #russia #mali #geopolitics https://t.co/YjzFnUuwhy
US Government Borrowing Now Mirrors External Deficits
"net US liabilities reached 24 per cent of global output in 2024 against a mere 6 per cent in 2008, and... the US private sector has moved into balance. So, the domestic counterpart of its external deficits today is borrowing...
USTR to Review China Tariffs as Section 301 Takes Center Stage
The U.S. Trade Representative has launched a four‑year review of the 2018 Section 301 tariffs imposed on Chinese imports. The review covers two 25% levies that affect roughly $32 billion of goods across more than 500 tariff subheadings. Domestic industries must submit...
BRL Set to Slip Below 4
The Brazilian Real $/BRL exchange rate during the oil spike in 2022 never quite made it below my 4.50 fair value. But it will during the current oil shock... https://t.co/6FPSc1Z02s https://t.co/jVERTF9raD
Emerging Markets Still Undervalued—Diversify Now
Saw an ad from another firm that said: "Emerging Markets: the train has left the station, but you can still catch it" 10/10. Never too late to diversify. Especially with EM valuations *still* way below US and DM.
The Iran Standoff and the Future of Oil
The United States has officially declared the three‑day conflict with Iran over, yet diplomatic friction persists as Tehran signals a strong negotiating position. Analysts argue that Iran is likely to emerge with a strategic win, which could push global oil...
Brazil's Money Supply Outpaces Golden Growth, Fuelling Inflation
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's CPI accelerated to 4.1%/yr in March. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 10.8%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/ayWWLxT21X
Sweden's Recovery Slowed by Iran Conflict, Ministry Says
Sweden’s finance ministry sees the recovery slowed by the Iran war https://t.co/spXk5dvrJ3 via @CharlesDuxbury https://t.co/yZ03TX0KeP
Oil Prices Fall as Trump Says Strait of Hormuz ‘Open to All’ if Iran Accepts Deal
President Donald Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened to all shipping if Iran accepts a pending deal, prompting a sharp drop in oil prices. Brent crude slid 11% to $97 a barrel, breaking below the $100...
ECB Hosts ESMA Chair to Discuss EU Capital Market Integration
Happy to welcome ESMA Chair Verena Ross to the @ecb today. We had a good discussion about the Savings and Investments Union, the integration of EU capital markets, and the broader economic outlook. https://t.co/nzStkOz1os
Oil Stagnates; Iranian Officials May Finally Respond
We are basically in the same position we were on Monday, when oil prices were significantly higher. The only difference is that people who don’t make the decisions in Iran are maybe going to respond to a memo…
Central Banks Turn Net Sellers of Gold for the First Time in 10 Months
For the first time in ten months, central banks were net sellers of gold in March, disposing of roughly 30 tonnes. Turkey led the outflows with a 60‑tonne sale, while Russia shed 6 tonnes, both citing liquidity and budget needs. In contrast,...
Deficits Are Tools, Not Moral Judgments—Ask What They Solve
Deficits aren’t inherently good or bad. They’re a tool. The real question is: what problem are they solving? Econ is annoyingly context-dependent like that. https://t.co/BojSAGUXL3
58% Execs Predict More Localized Supply Chains by 2030
Survey of 1,800 global executives from Prologis and The Harris Poll finds a majority, 58%, forecast more localized supply chains by 2030, with only 31% expecting continued globalization. (My write-up in @forbes) https://t.co/4afHA5ytaD
Markets Catch a Whiff of Peace as Oil Cools, but Risks Linger
A tentative US‑Iran memorandum sparked a sharp retreat in oil, with Brent falling 7% to $102 a barrel and WTI dropping 8% to $94, the steepest two‑session decline since the April ceasefire. The easing of supply‑risk fears lifted Indian equities,...
Running the Economy Hot Boosts Productivity Growth (TFP)
Running the economy hot is good for productivity growth (TFP). More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/nGLBPhtgPz
From OPEC-Plus to OPEC-Minus
The United Arab Emirates announced it will exit OPEC on May 1, 2026, a move that stunned Saudi Arabia and the broader OPEC+ coalition. The departure reduces the bloc’s production capacity by roughly 3 million barrels per day and raises questions about the...
Online Sleuths Are Raising More Red Flags Around Suspiciously Timed Iran-War Oil Trades
Oil prices plunged after reports that the United States and Iran were close to a peace agreement, sending Brent down 11.9% and WTI over 13%. Data from The Kobeissi Letter revealed nearly $920 million in crude‑oil short contracts opened just an...
Taiwan’s Manufacturing PMI Hits 60.3% as AI‑Driven Chip Demand Tightens Supply
Taiwan’s manufacturing purchasing managers index climbed to 60.3% in April 2026, marking a seventh straight month of expansion and the strongest reading since September 2021. The surge reflects soaring AI‑driven semiconductor demand that is tightening supply across the island’s factories....
NY Fed Index Hits Covid-Level Supply Chain Disruptions
🇺🇸 The NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index jumped in April to Covid-like disruption levels. https://t.co/ywfPzNS5oq https://t.co/23NKq4esGS
US‑Iran Language Clash Masks Real Strait of Hormuz Status
Setting aside the nuclear situation, there's an issue with the 1st point right off the bat - language. The US says "Iran lift its chokehold over the SoH" and Iran says "SoH is open...follow these protocols (incl. payment)." Both sides agree on...
How Should Europe Respond to the Energy Shock?
European governments have largely responded to the Iran‑driven energy shock by cutting fuel taxes, a move that the author argues misses the strategic opportunity presented by soaring oil prices, which have risen to about $115 per barrel. Instead of subsidizing...
Iran Peace Hopes Spark 3% Surge in Emerging‑Market Stocks, Boosting Risk Appetite
Investors pushed a benchmark of developing‑world equities up 3.1% on Wednesday as signals of a US‑Iran peace agreement revived risk appetite. The rally lifted the index’s year‑to‑date gain to nearly 22%, while currencies rallied and oil prices fell.
Oil Prices Drop and Stock Markets Rise After Reports of Deal to End Iran War
Oil markets fell and global equities rose after reports that the United States and Iran are close to a one‑page memorandum ending the war. Brent crude dropped to $97 (≈£73) per barrel before rebounding above $101, down from a peak...
Brazil Central Bank Holds Tight Policy as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Pressures
Brazil's central bank approved a 0.25‑percentage‑point cut to the Selic rate, bringing it to 14.5%, yet signaled that monetary policy will remain restrictive. Officials cited the war in the Middle East, higher global oil prices and strong domestic demand as...
EU Rolls Out $711 B AccelerateEU Clean‑Energy Investment Package
The European Commission announced AccelerateEU, a €660 billion ($775 billion) clean‑energy investment package aimed at decarbonising the bloc by 2030. The plan couples short‑term crisis relief with long‑term grid and renewable upgrades, responding to recent supply shocks in the Middle East.
UK 30‑Year Gilt Yield Hits 5.78%, Highest Since 1998 Amid Election and Energy Shock
The yield on Britain’s 30‑year government bond jumped to 5.78%, the highest level since 1998, as investors priced in Bank of England rate‑hike expectations, record oil prices and uncertainty surrounding local elections. The move pushes long‑term borrowing costs to a...
Iron Ore Hits $110.25/ton, Highest Since Oct 2024 as Chinese Buyers Return
Iron ore futures surged 1.6% to $110.25 a ton in Singapore, the highest price since October 2024, as Chinese steel producers rushed back to the market after a five‑day holiday. The rebound reflects a sharp shift in demand from the...
Q&A: How the Strait of Hormuz Closure Affects Global Oil Supply
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted the transit of roughly 20% of the world’s oil, sending shockwaves through global commodity markets. Tim Statts of Schneider Electric explains that despite the U.S. being the top oil producer, it...
Trumpflation, Asean Pacifism and Leviste VATism
The Philippines’ consumer price index surged to 7.2% in April 2026, up from 1.4% a year earlier, as higher oil and fertilizer costs from the Middle‑East conflict – dubbed “Trumpflation” – ripple worldwide. Unemployment also climbed, reaching 5.0% in the same...