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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
UK fintech funding plunges 21% as rates hit 5.25%
Fintech investment in the UK fell 21% in 2025, driven by the Bank of England’s base rate climbing to 5.25%. Higher rates made government bonds more attractive, pulling capital from venture funds and limiting contributions from pension schemes, while softer consumer spending and loan demand pressured fintech valuations.
India’s free‑trade agreement with the United Kingdom is slated to take effect on 1 May 2024, while a parallel pact with the European Union is expected to be sealed by the end of the year, according to Texprocil. Both deals aim to slash tariffs that have long constrained Indian exporters, especially in textiles. Minister Piyush Goyal highlighted that the agreements are part of a broader push that already gives Indian firms preferential access to 38 developed markets. The timeline signals a rapid move toward deeper market integration for Indian manufacturers.
The US inflation report was clearly impacted by the Hormuz crisis, but it once again came very close to the Nowcast IQ (https://t.co/00SY5qimgl) estimate, just 4 bps off on core and slightly more on headline. Our dovish lean was also...
JUST IN: Inflation soared in March to 3.3% y/y--> the highest annual rate since May 2024. The war in Iran is squeezing middle income and lower income households. **Inflation in March alone rose 0.9%. That’s the biggest one-month jump since June...
The OECD’s 2026 Foundations for Growth and Competitiveness report warns that labour productivity has stalled across member economies, driven by weak business investment, slowing technology diffusion and lagging human‑capital accumulation. At the same time, rapid advances in artificial intelligence and...
Ocean carriers have begun applying emergency fuel surcharges to U.S. shipments, pushing spot rates higher across major lanes. The World Container Index showed Shanghai‑Los Angeles rates rise 9% to $2,910 per 40 ft and Shanghai‑New York up 7% to $3,671. The most striking...
A Russian VLCC crossed the Strait of Hormuz heading to Kharg Island to load Iranian oil. Here you have a war against Iran and Iran is currently the only country in the region actively exporting oil on a daily basis —...
Iran is now demanding a $2 million toll per very large crude carrier transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with payment required within seconds via Bitcoin to evade sanctions. Scans show only a handful of tankers have passed the chokepoint, underscoring a...
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) announced its optical‑component order book is sold out through 2028, driven by massive capex from U.S. hyperscalers. CoreWeave secured a multiyear agreement to provide Anthropic with AI‑compute capacity for its Claude models, while Anthropic is also weighing...
Ed makes the key point concerning tolls. Once you get in bed with Iran, you are doing business with a sanctioned government and whatever you do after is tainted. It will be difficult to conduct business with anyone else. This...
The Kremlin is drafting a decree that would bar major foreign container carriers—CMA CGM, Maersk, OOCL and X‑Press Feeders—from calling at Russian ports. The move comes after years of sanctions‑driven pull‑outs, leaving MSC as the sole major liner with two services...
My friend & Johns Hopkins graduate Trita Parsi on the validity of any deal with the US: "If the US cannot control Israel, then what is the value of a deal with the US? Israel will restart the war and the...
⚠️ US inflation 🔥hotter than prior month Cooler than forecast 🥶 With Oil Drop, inflation fears easing CPI MoM 0.9% in line (Prev 0.3%) CPI YoY 3.3% (Forecast 3.4%, Prev 2.4%) Core CPI MoM 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%) Core CPI YoY 2.6% (Forecast...
Global container volumes jumped to 15.04 m TEU in February, a 12‑13% year‑on‑year increase that outpaced the five‑year average despite the Chinese New Year lull. The surge coincided with a four‑point drop in the CTS Global Price Index to 74, suggesting...
Price changes over last year (March CPI report) Fuel Oil: +44.2% Gasoline: +18.9% Gas Utilities: +6.4% Electricity: +4.6% Transportation: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.8% Medical Care: +3.7% Overall CPI: +3.3% Shelter: +3.0% Food at home: +1.9% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2%
China sidelined: EU shelves rare strategy debate as Iran crisis takes priority Taken together, officials say, the risk is that Europe confronts China’s industrial challenge with fragmented tools, without political alignment needed to act. Board of Trade? https://t.co/XG9G3bzpxw
The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has issued a detailed procedure for allocating imports of calcined petroleum coke (CPC) for the aluminium sector in fiscal year 2026‑27. Applications are now open, and allocations will be based on the recommendations...
Already both the U.S. and Iran are claiming to have won the war and are negotiating about the negotiations. As explained in my recent note, it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz, which will have big implications...
India is delaying maintenance on its coal power plants because of a gas supply crunch 🇮🇳 ⚠️ India’s LNG imports have dropped because of the war in the Middle East And with hot summer weather coming fast, India needs more coal...
Wall Street’s optimism over the tentative US‑Iran ceasefire lifted the S&P 500 to a five‑week high on April 9. Among equity factors, the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) surged 3.8% since the war’s onset, outpacing all peers. In contrast, low‑volatility...
The British Solar Startup Being Courted by Both China and the U.S. - WSJ https://t.co/sX60BYn0kE
Trump Quietly Scraps His Own Playbook on China The White House walks back the aggressive approach of the first administration, in a dramatic reversal Times change, leverage changes... https://t.co/emValbLeko via @WSJ
The United States and Iran announced a cease‑fire on April 7, temporarily reopening the Strait of Hormuz after a month‑long closure that began on March 2. Iran, which has been laying sea mines and demanding transit fees, will manage passage for a...
My appearance last night on @CNN with @thelauracoates talking about the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/8c9CNwMekq
I'm doing my customary weekend livestream today at 11 am because I'm on the road tomorrow. I'll be talking about US inflation, the ceasefire and if it will hold and whether gold is still a safe haven asset. Come join...
The 72‑hour cease‑fire between Iran and Israel remains intact, but Israeli strikes continue in Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz stays largely closed. The United States is sending a delegation to Islamabad for the first high‑level talks with Iran since...
😬Known info but still a stunning #IranWar #LNG graphic via the IMF's wider analysis of the war's impact. Link in next post. https://t.co/KokCb7gPBa
G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks: The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly…...
The European Union and the United States are close to finalising a critical‑minerals pact that would coordinate production, pricing and supply‑chain resilience to curb reliance on China. The draft action plan proposes minimum‑price mechanisms, joint standards, and investment projects, while...
Iran didn’t just hit barrels—it hit the workaround. ~700K bpd knocked out of the Saudi bypass pipeline and ~600K bpd off production Both flow and supply are under pressure. That’s how chokepoints turn into pricing power. https://t.co/8MpkdDc8Q3 #Oil #Energy #Hormuz
@Rory_Johnston explains why the Iran ceasefire hasn't ended the global energy crisis, and what likely comes next on Shift Key with @robinsonmeyer. https://t.co/XDyvPxc4wn
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased geopolitical tension, sending U.S. equity indexes higher. The S&P 500 is on track for its largest weekly gain since November, while the Dow Jones aims for its strongest weekly...
The 2026 National Trade Estimate Report identifies anti‑competitive market distortions (ACMDs) as the most consequential barriers to U.S. exports, foreign investment and e‑commerce. Applying Shanker Singham’s three‑pillar framework, the analysis ranks China as the largest systemic challenge, with Mexico’s energy...
"Even though we had to dust off the final read on GDP, what it told me…is not good." https://t.co/B12qnALWAS #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth https://t.co/pqjvjdKsks
U.S. diversified stock funds recorded a 2.7% loss in Q1 2026, the steepest decline since 2022, as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel amid the U.S.–Iran conflict. The S&P 500 fell 4.3% and the Nasdaq dropped 6.96%, while the Dow held...
Investors are betting that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year as Europe confronts a fresh inflation surge. Natural‑gas prices have jumped roughly 40 % since February, driven by the U.S.–Israeli strikes on...
The G10 fx consolidation today looks constructive. Today's North American highlights including US March CPI and Canada's jobs data. Middle East ceasefire is frayed but intact ahead of the weekend negotiations. Hungary holds key election too. See https://t.co/ilDfPE14fW https://t.co/vM5PZMv4eI
A cornerstone of modern globalization, the World Trade Organization (WTO), is collapsing. Following the Cold War, the post-WWII system needed a legal system to enforce trade rules, so the WTO was born. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/NyZga6gg0S https://t.co/o16DadJrPq
The World Bank’s April 2026 Nigeria Development Update reveals that poverty surged to 63 percent in 2025, affecting roughly 140 million people. Despite a modest slowdown in inflation, real wages and household purchasing power remained flat, underscoring a disconnect between macro‑economic stabilization...
François Collet, CIO of DNCA, says the Iran conflict will act as a short‑term inflationary shock, lifting European inflation expectations above 3% and keeping U.S. inflation near 3.25% over the next year. He forecasts GDP growth could be trimmed by 10‑30...
CBAM currently applies to sectors such as cement, steel, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity, hydrogen, and certain intermediate products. Together, these sectors account for approximately 50% of emissions covered under the EU Emissions Trading System https://t.co/qKRttXlmeE
Opposition leader Cheng Li‑wun met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, becoming the highest‑ranking Taiwanese official to hold a face‑to‑face dialogue with Beijing since President Ma Ying‑jeou’s 2015 meeting. Both leaders reiterated opposition to Taiwan independence and framed the dispute as a cultural‑historical...
Governments across the world are reconsidering corporate tax rates in the wake of the OECD’s global minimum tax agreement, fiscal pressures following the pandemic, and increasing concerns about tax avoidance and profit shifting. https://t.co/JGQwYAIYmC
European drinks firms, represented by the Federation of European Business in India, have asked the Indian government to temporarily remove a 10% import duty on glass bottles and aluminium cans. The request follows a surge in packaging costs—glass prices up...
S&P Global now projects global GDP growth slowing to 3.2 percent in 2026, down from 3.4 percent in 2025, as the West Asia conflict generates the largest recorded energy shock. Disruptions to oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to...
India’s inbound remittances are projected to hit $137‑140 bn in FY26, a record level, before leveling off at $135‑137 bn in FY27. The surge, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia, follows $110 bn received through December, up from $100 bn a year...
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite a two‑week U.S.‑Iran cease‑fire, keeping global oil flows constrained and energy prices elevated. Gold futures have rebounded, the S&P 500 is trading sideways, and Bitcoin stays down year‑to‑date. In the housing sector, mortgage rates...
Oil prices surged toward the $100 level as doubts grew over a fragile cease‑fire between the United States, Iran and Israel. On April 9 U.S. crude jumped 6.8% to $100.79 a barrel while Brent rose 3.7% to $98.24, still well above...
EU and US near critical minerals deal to combat Chinese control https://t.co/9Sfd9SN3G1 via @AlbertoNardelli @JoeDeaux https://t.co/t2pPn5nVtw
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has formalized control over the Strait of Hormuz, requiring vessel‑by‑vessel clearance and tolls paid in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency. The move leaves roughly 175 fully‑laden tankers—about 150 million barrels of crude and products—stranded in the Arabian...
The episode examines President Trump's mixed signals about imposing a $1‑$2 per barrel toll on oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, noting that such a fee would likely shift costs to Gulf producers and ultimately benefit U.S. suppliers, while...
