🎯Today's Global Economy Pulse
Updated 23m agoWhat's happening: US growth stalls to 1.4% annualized in Q4 2025 amid fiscal gridlock
The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations and the slowest pace since early 2024. The deceleration follows a 4.4% surge in the prior quarter and coincides with heightened legislative gridlock over fiscal policy and the debt ceiling.
News•Feb 14, 2026
Dedicated Freight Corridor Won’t Divert Cargo Volumes to Competing Ports, Says APSEZ
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) says the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) will not erode cargo volumes at its flagship Mundra Port. The company cites Mundra’s deep draft, faster vessel turnaround and integrated logistics ecosystem as structural advantages that outweigh any rail‑speed gains from the DFC. APSEZ’s CEO Ashwani Gupta emphasized a 300‑350 km hinterland distance edge, translating to a cost advantage of five to six railway slabs. The firm expects container volumes to stay steady while targeting roughly 11% growth in its logistics arm.
By The Hindu BusinessLine – Economy
News•Feb 14, 2026
Honda, Toyota Voice Concerns over EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan
Japanese and British automakers Honda and Toyota have warned that the European Union’s proposed “Made in Europe” plan could limit their market access. The initiative, driven by EU Executive Vice‑President Stephane Sejourne, seeks to curb cheap Chinese imports and boost...
By Nikkei Asia – Economy
News•Feb 14, 2026
Cabinet Clears Rs 1 Lakh Crore for India's Big Urban Reset; Aims to Unlock Rs 4 Lakh Crore Investment
The Indian cabinet approved a Rs 1 lakh crore Urban Challenge Fund (UCF) to drive market‑led urban infrastructure over the next five years. The fund offers 25% central assistance, requiring cities to raise at least 50% of project costs from bonds, loans or...
By The Economic Times (India) – Economy
News•Feb 14, 2026
UTF Vs. ASGI: Why A 6% Discount And Rate Cut Cycle Make UTF The Obvious Choice
Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund (UTF) received a Buy rating, while abrdn Global Infrastructure Income Fund (ASGI) was placed on Hold due to its premium valuation. UTF trades at a 6 % discount to NAV and carries 29.7 % leverage, positioning it to...
By Seeking Alpha – ETFs & Funds
Social•Feb 14, 2026
South Africa's Record Real Rates Prompt Slow, Steady Cuts
South African rates are restrictive. The real policy rate is the highest it’s been in 20 years, and they expect growth. They are suffocating the economy with high real rates. However, we can expect more rate cuts throughout the year,...
By Talk Cents
News•Feb 14, 2026
India Must Shift From Growth at Scale to Productivity for Viksit Bharat 2047: KPMG Report
KPMG’s new report urges India to move from a scale‑driven growth model to one focused on productivity as it targets a Viksit Bharat by 2047. It outlines ten priority areas, including deepening manufacturing, upskilling a youthful workforce, modernising MSMEs, and...
By The Hindu BusinessLine – Economy
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Politicized Asset Stewardship Spurs Lease Cancellations, REIT Shorts
Macro: politicized stewardship of public assets rising; Key: Interior canceled NLT lease; Risk: litigation & environmental hurdles delay projects; Trade: short park‑adjacent REITs. ⚖️ — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
By Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Malaysia Beats Forecast, Yet MSMEs Face Headwinds
Malaysia’s Economic Outlook & Risks Full-year performance exceeds government’s upper ceiling based on 4Q 2025 data Outperformance —► Hawkish BNM bias. Chatter of tougher operating conditions on the ground, especially for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) including F&B sector are leading many...
By David Chuah
News•Feb 14, 2026
World Liberty Forum Reaches Capacity as Global Leaders Prepare to Convene at Mar-a-Lago
World Liberty Financial announced that its World Liberty Forum has sold out, with nearly 400 senior executives, investors and policymakers confirmed for the February 18, 2026 gathering at Mar‑a‑Lago. The day‑long event will feature high‑profile speakers from finance, technology, sports and government,...
By Business Wire — Executive Appointments
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China and US Slowdown Drag Global EV Sales
Global EV sales hampered by China, US slowdown in January "Global EV registrations, a proxy for sales, fell by 3% year-on-year to almost 1.2 million units in January, according to the data, which includes battery-electric and plug-in hybrid cars. They were down...
By Anas Alhajji
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Dollar Decouples: US Growth Rises as USD Falls
Great piece by @katie_martin_fx in the @FT on the correlation break happening for the Dollar. As Trump leans more and more on the Fed, positive data surprises like payrolls no longer lift USD. The US will boom this year. But...
By Robin Brooks
News•Feb 13, 2026
Oil Prices Level Out Despite Possible Opec-Plus Supply Growth
Oil prices closed Friday largely unchanged after a session marked by sharp swings between macro‑economic headwinds and geopolitical support. Traders weighed the prospect of OPEC‑plus expanding output against lingering demand concerns. The market’s equilibrium suggests that supply‑side expectations have not...
By Energy Intelligence
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Strengthening Critical Mineral Supply Chains Amid Geopolitical Fragmentation
Thanks @bmwfoundation for partnering w @ColumbiaUEnergy on such a substantive & productive session @MunSecConf on how to enhance critical mineral & energy supply chain security amid fragmenting geopolitics. Great insights from DOE’s @AlexFitzDC, @dan_brouillette & so many others. https://t.co/D1xRKHu7gO
By Jason Bordoff
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Anti‑Trump Bias Skews Dollar and Inflation Forecasts
A lot of economic commentary is inflected by anti-Trump sentiment. That's why so many forecast the Dollar would go into a death spiral last year (it didn't) & why there's so much focus on inflation overheating now (it isn't). Yesterday's...
By Robin Brooks
News•Feb 13, 2026
Ocean Alliance, ONE Rework Trans-Atlantic Services, Remove Ships
Ocean Alliance and Ocean Network Express (ONE) announced a major overhaul of their trans‑Atlantic service network, removing several vessels and consolidating U.S. port calls. The redesign follows a year of uneven trade, with U.S. exports to Europe rising sharply while...
By Journal of Commerce (JOC)
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Big Shocks Make Firms Change Prices Faster, Speeding Inflation
Recent inflation surge has subsided in most advanced economies, but effects may linger in unexpected ways. Inflation responds much more rapidly to large shocks than standard models predict, because firms adjust prices more frequently when shocks are large https://t.co/Lrr7d9eevX
By Linda Yueh
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Import‑Dependent Nations Face Greater Food Insecurity, Regardless of Wealth
Countries that rely on staple imports to feed their population tend to report higher levels of food insecurity. This holds even after controlling for income per capita, suggesting that exposure to international markets is independent of development level https://t.co/2tzjysif3u
By Linda Yueh
News•Feb 13, 2026
Export Momentum Carries Corn Market Into New Year
U.S. corn prices remain buoyed by robust export demand that persisted into early 2025, according to Compeer Financial economist Megan Roberts. While prices are still below target levels, the export momentum offsets downward pressure. Roberts noted that a nationwide E15...
By Brownfield Ag News
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Wars Trigger Persistent Democratic Decline in Specific Contexts
Data covering 115 conflicts & 145 countries over past 75 years show wars cause large & persistent declines in democratic institutions. Not inevitable. It appears only in specific settings –first-time conflicts, internal wars, conflicts that governments win https://t.co/Lq6ORZiquj
By Linda Yueh
Social•Feb 14, 2026
EU Trade Surplus Shrinks as Tariffs and China Pressure
1/5 Reuters: "The EU's trade surplus kept shrinking, data showed on Friday, as tariffs weighed on exports to the U.S. and rising Chinese imports crowded out domestic production, highlighting existential threats to the bloc's economic model." https://t.co/91sJO2nGjP
By Michael Pettis
News•Feb 13, 2026
Milan-26: India’s Maritime Diplomacy Comes of Age
India’s 13th Milan naval exercise, Milan‑26, will run Feb 18‑25 in Visakhapatnam, coinciding with the International Fleet Review and the IONS summit, forming the “Vizag trifecta.” The biennial drill has grown from four regional navies in 1995 to 70 confirmed participants...
By The Diplomat – Asia-Pacific
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Provincial Revenues Forecast 2‑3% Growth, Lagging Economy
1/4 SCMP: "Major provinces are budgeting for 2 to 3 per cent growth this year in general public operating revenue, broadly in line with last year but below broader economic growth targets, Fitch Ratings said in a research note." https://t.co/HwyAPw042O
By Michael Pettis
Social•Feb 14, 2026
UK Growth Stalls at 0.1% Amid Rising Taxes
The U.K.'s GDP grew just 0.1% in Q4 2025 and an ANEMIC 1.3% for the entire year. Under RUSSOPHOBE Keir Starmer, taxes are up, productivity is flat, and consumers are feeling squeezed. https://t.co/WDyleJsH6n
By Steve Hanke
News•Feb 13, 2026
US Supreme Court Says Next Friday Will Be a Decision Day
The U.S. Supreme Court announced three decision days—Feb. 20, 24, and 25—when it will issue opinions, though it has not disclosed which cases will be decided. Lawmakers in the House have voted against new tariffs and the Senate is expected...
By ForexLive — Feed
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China Cracks Down on Hidden Corporate IOU Market
1/3 Very interesting Caixin article on attempts by Chinese regulators to get their arms around "the opaque market for corporate IOUs that has allowed big-name companies to defer payments to suppliers on a massive scale." https://t.co/FIJywKAtIX
By Michael Pettis
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Swiss Inflation Near Zero as Money Growth Slows
Switzerland’s inflation rate is on the low end of its TARGET RANGE at 0.03%/yr. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) has been growing below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.40%-6.40%/yr since 2020 & is now only at 4.58%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
By Steve Hanke
News•Feb 13, 2026
FedEx Plans to Close over 475 Stations Due to Network 2.0
FedEx will shut more than 475 stations, roughly 30% of its U.S. and Canada footprint, as part of its Network 2.0 consolidation. The initiative merges Ground and Express operations, shifting focus to large metros such as San Francisco. Already, over 200 sites...
By Supply Chain Dive
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Demand Plummets as Gas Powers Electricity
CHART OF THE DAY: Among the world's top oil consumers, a curious trend. The 2nd largest consumption drop last year ocurred in Saudi Arabia, where demand fell ~60,000 b/d (only South Korea saw a larger drop). The reason? Gas is...
By Javier Blas
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China's January Financing Jumps 2.4% Year‑over‑year, Beating Forecasts
1/5 According to Caixin, China’s aggregate financing grew slightly faster than expected in January, rising by RMB 7.22 trillion. This was 2.4% more than in January 2025 and 10.4% more than in January 2024. It is equal to 5.1% of annual...
By Michael Pettis
News•Feb 13, 2026
Trump Unveils White House Maritime Action Plan to Restore U.S. Seapower
President Trump released the White House Maritime Action Plan (MAP), the most ambitious U.S. shipbuilding strategy since the 1936 Merchant Marine Act. The 35‑page document proposes a fee on foreign‑built vessels, a dedicated Maritime Security Trust Fund, Maritime Prosperity Zones,...
By gCaptain
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China's Railway Investment Climbs 5.5% in January
Xinhua: "China's railway sector completed 46.3 billion yuan (about 6.67 billion U.S. dollars) in fixed-asset investment in January, up 5.5 percent year on year." https://t.co/g109GF2REm
By Michael Pettis
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China's Cheap Middle East Oil Squeezes West African Sellers
China is pulling more cheap oil from the Middle East. That leaves W. African oil struggling to find buyers until it gets cheap enough to move again, writes @JuneGoh_Sparta In this tight market, the Middle East has the upper hand. Sorry oil...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China’s Inbound FDI Collapses as Outbound Investment Soars
For years, the world invested in China. Since 2022, foreign direct investment inflows to China have PLUNGED, while China's foreign investment outflows have SURGED. https://t.co/TCWhEPF7bq
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 14, 2026
OPEC+ Plans April Production Hikes Amid Sanctions
OPEC+ may restart April hikes to catch peak summer and regain share as sanctions bite Russia/Iran. https://t.co/cILwlUi7h2 #OPECplus #Oil #IEA #SaudiArabia #UAE #Iran #Russia
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Disinflation Relief Meets Market Disruption Fear
CPI cools to 2.4%. Yields fall 18bps. S&P 500 posts its worst week since November. If inflation is easing… why aren’t stocks cheering? The market isn’t repricing rates. It’s repricing disruption. Disinflation Relief, Disruption Fear 👇 https://t.co/JM3yRs0tFM
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China EV Sales Dip, Exports Surge 70% Abroad
China EV Sales Drop for First Time Since February 2024—Chinese exports of EVs and hybrids rise 70% in 2025 as automakers shift their focus overseas @ivy_jiahuihuang https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg
By Jonathan Cheng
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Trump's Tariff Push Backfires, Approval Slips Sharply
Trump's tariff blitz BACKFIRES. Approval ratings are tanking. 52% of Americans say Trump’s economic policies have made things worse. Now the White House is scrambling to put a positive spin on the US economy. https://t.co/a1JUyOz6LJ
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
No Bullish Catalyst for Oil in 2026, Repeat Likely
🚦From a pure fundamentals perspective, there's simply no bullish driver in sight capable of pushing oil prices into the high $70s—or higher—in 2026. ⚽️Betting your capital on a major war with Iran or any similar geopolitical shock to spike prices isn't...
By Anas Alhajji
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Services Inflation Sticks While Housing Disinflation Persists
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Evolving Energy Security Toolkit Amid Fragmented Order, EU‑US Distrust
Energy security is high on the @MunSecConf agenda. I’ve been discussing how the toolkit to deliver it must evolve—amid a fragmenting global order, the need to accelerate the clean transition, and a far deeper level of European distrust toward the...
By Jason Bordoff
Social•Feb 13, 2026
China’s $1.2 T Surplus Fuels Massive Market Interventions
One by product of China's exploding external surplus (goods surplus of $1.2 trillion, q4 current account surplus annualized is close to $1 trillion) is that it creates the raw material for some massive intervention numbers h/t @Mike_Weilandt for the chart https://t.co/PMvhatfgWh
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 13, 2026
NYT Overlooks Money Growth, the Real Inflation Driver
The NYT credits cooling inflation to tariffs, housing, airfare, energy, & labor markets. But ignores money. Money growth has averaged 4%/yr over 2025 — far below the 6.3%/yr Golden Growth Rate, consistent with hitting the US's 2%/yr inflation target. https://t.co/tk42l7TVVZ
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Ford Faces $900M Tariff Blow, Highlighting US Corporate Pain
Ford just disclosed an additional $900M tariff hit in its Q4 results. TARIFFS = BAD NEWS FOR AMERICAN CORPORATIONS. https://t.co/kau61WOizz
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Potential Crisis Looms as Fed‑White House Tensions Rise
How ironic would it be if there were a market crisis event in the next few months while Powell is still at the helm of the Fed, requiring extreme Fed and White House/Treasury cooperation while those relations are as strained...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Broadening Value and Cyclical Rotation Driven by Fundamentals
We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably, it’s the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and...
By Michael Kantro
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Crude Swings on Hormuz Alert, US‑Iran Talks, Venezuela Relief
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📉Crude prices rise on Hormuz advisory before falling back on the prospect of longer US-Iran talks, with headlines dotted with a flurry of US sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector. Summary below, link to full report in...
By Rory Johnston
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Trump Tariffs Add $1,300 Hidden Tax per Household
According to a new report by the Tax Foundation, Trump’s latest tariffs amount to a $1,300 hidden tax per household. US TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/w3pnoqPIdP
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
BOE's Pill: Rates Slightly Too Low, Should Stay
BOE’s Pill says interest rates are ‘a little too low’ and should be held https://t.co/wMBsLKECUz via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/axOKBgzYCV
By Zöe Schneeweiss
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Germany Mulls Debt Brake Exemption for Raw Materials Fund
Germany weighs debt brake exemption to boost raw materials fund https://t.co/lsvcwd09Y5 via @mcnienaber @ocrook https://t.co/wmKMMM7Dgu
By Zöe Schneeweiss
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Rabois Predicts Trump May Block China's Nvidia Chip Access
Here's @rabois saying he thinks the Trump administration may ultimately reverse course on letting China get access to Nvidia's best chips https://t.co/XImO09oRyf
By Eric Newcomer