🎯Today's Global Economy Pulse
Updated 2h agoWhat's happening: US growth stalls to 1.4% annualized in Q4 2025 amid fiscal gridlock
The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations and the slowest pace since early 2024. The deceleration follows a 4.4% surge in the prior quarter and coincides with heightened legislative gridlock over fiscal policy and the debt ceiling.
News•Feb 17, 2026
Thai Banks’ Bad Loans Dip Slightly
Thai banks’ non‑performing loan ratio slipped to 2.84% at December, down from 2.94% in September. Bank lending fell 1.1% in Q4 2025, marking the sixth straight quarter of contraction, driven by tighter credit to SMEs and consumers. Household debt remains high at 86.8% of GDP, while overall economic growth slowed to 2.4% for the year. The Bank of Thailand signaled readiness to extend relaxed mortgage LTV rules to aid the property market.
By Bangkok Post – Investment (subset within Business)
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Foreign Investment Steady, US Stocks Slightly Lagging
Balanced take from Bob. While the headline may be different than my "get out" thesis. The meat says the same. Flows suggest marginally weaker dollar and relative underperformance of U.S. stocks vs ROW. Don't panic out...
By Andy Constan
Social•Feb 17, 2026
38% Expect Warsh Chair to Push Yields Higher, Dollar Lower
"38% of FMS investors believe that, all else equal, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair will likely lead to higher US Treasury yields and a lower US dollar." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/5m0L3ZjRg1
By Sam Ro
News•Feb 17, 2026
Ongoing War Stifles Ukraine’s Grain Exports
Ukraine’s grain exports have slumped dramatically as Russian shelling intensifies attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure, cutting monthly shipments from 3.6 Mt to 2.5 Mt. Year‑to‑date volumes are 28.5% lower and export value down 18%, eroding billions of foreign‑currency earnings...
By Grain Central
News•Feb 17, 2026
Almi Marine Back in Newbuild Arena with Ultramax Pair
Greek dry‑bulk carrier Almi Marine has re‑entered the new‑building market after a four‑year hiatus, signing a contract for two next‑generation 64,000 dwt ultramax vessels with Nantong Cosco KHI Ship Engineering (NACKS). The ships, slated for delivery in the second quarter of...
By Splash 247
News•Feb 17, 2026
Philip R Lane: Bulgaria and the Euro
Philip R. Lane praised Bulgaria’s smooth euro cash changeover, noting that euros now represent 70 percent of cash in circulation as the dual‑lev/euro period ends on 31 January 2026. The speech highlighted Bulgaria’s new seat at the ECB Governing Council, giving the country a...
By BIS — Press Releases
News•Feb 17, 2026
Christine Lagarde: Preparing for Geoeconomic Fragmentation
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that deepening supply‑chain interdependence now poses a security risk, prompting Europe to shift toward strategic autonomy. She outlined three policy levers—diversification, indispensability and independence—to reduce reliance on distant suppliers, especially in electronics, chemicals...
By BIS — Press Releases
News•Feb 17, 2026
Indian Veg Oil Buyers Await Clarity on US Trade Deal
Indian vegetable‑oil importers are waiting for concrete details on the pending U.S.–India trade pact that could lower tariffs on U.S. soybean oil. The framework hints at a 0‑15% duty cut and a tariff‑rate quota of roughly 200,000‑250,000 tonnes, but exact...
By Fastmarkets – Insights
News•Feb 17, 2026
Will Indonesia’s US$762 Million Ramadan Stimulus Be a ‘Positive’ Boost for the Economy?
Indonesia has unveiled a US$762 million, 12.83 trillion‑rupiah stimulus aimed at bolstering Ramadan consumption. The package includes transport fare discounts of up to 30%, full‑fare ferry rides, and food parcels for low‑income families. Officials hope the measures will sustain mobility and purchasing...
By South China Morning Post – Asia
News•Feb 17, 2026
Trump’s New Arms Rules Will Hit Southeast Asia
President Trump issued an executive order establishing an “America First” arms export strategy that rewards allies who invest in self‑defense, occupy critical geography, or contribute to U.S. economic security. The rubric pushes the Philippines, Singapore and Cambodia toward priority status...
By Foreign Policy
News•Feb 17, 2026
BofA Survey Flags Dollar Bearish Bets at over a Decade High. Here's What It Means for Bitcoin
Bank of America’s February survey shows investor exposure to the U.S. dollar is at its most bearish since early 2012, marking a record underweight stance. Historically, a weaker dollar has acted as a bullish tailwind for bitcoin, but since early...
By CoinDesk
Social•Feb 17, 2026
China Shifts Reserves to State Banks, Boosts Returns
Beijing really just outsourced its reserves to its state banks, and shifted out of US custodians High return on investment tho. Tons of folks swallow the fall in reported Treasury holdings hook, line and sinker https://t.co/MKw3EJlSuR
By Brad Setser
News•Feb 17, 2026
Walmart’s Sam’s Club Cracks China Market Formula Even as Foreign Retailers Shut Shop
Walmart‑owned Sam’s Club is expanding in China by deepening localisation, offering China‑specific products such as ginseng, copper‑gourd ornaments, and right‑sized private‑label packs. The chain opened ten new stores in 2025, bringing its footprint to 63 locations and shifting focus to...
By South China Morning Post — Business
News•Feb 17, 2026
JICA Mulls Resuming ODA Loans to Pakistan After Decadelong Hiatus
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is weighing a restart of official development assistance (ODA) loans to Pakistan after a ten‑year hiatus. The move reflects improving macro‑economic indicators, including steadier growth and reduced fiscal stress. JICA’s decision will be coordinated with...
By Nikkei Asia – Economy
Social•Feb 17, 2026
China's Hidden Bank Interventions Hit $800B Annual Record
The annualized measures of Chinese intervention over the last 3ms that capture backdoor intervention by the state banks are at all time highs in dollar terms -- over $200b a quarter/ over $800b annualized https://t.co/7vlh3tf4CX
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Sinokor's 120‑tanker Dominance Spikes Freight, Rattles Oil Markets
South Korean Sinokor now controls 120 oil tankers When one buyer controls the tradable fleet, charterers panic-book, freight spikes, and shocks bleeds into physical oil prices and spreads. https://t.co/Z2GsMyfbtl #oil #tankers #VLCC #shipping #freight #supplychain #sanctions #geopolitics #markets #energy
By Art Berman Blog
Blog•Feb 17, 2026
The Housing Inflection Point
The episode examines the current U.S. housing market inflection point, highlighting softened builder confidence, persistently tight resale inventory, and the potential impact of a credible rate‑cut cycle on margins and incentives. It discusses policy initiatives aimed at streamlining permitting and...
By The Lead‑Lag Report – Blog
News•Feb 17, 2026
Real vs Technical Inflation: Which Should Guide Monetary Policy in Nigeria?
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics rebased its Consumer Price Index to a 2024 base year, pulling headline inflation down from 24.48% in January 2025 to 15.15% by December 2025. Critics argue the technical decline masks persistent real inflation, with food prices still...
By BusinessDay (Nigeria)
News•Feb 17, 2026
What Nigeria’s Economy Optimises for — Without Admitting It
Nigeria’s economy is structured to reward navigating bureaucratic friction rather than boosting productivity, efficiency, or innovation. World Bank data shows firms spend over 40% more time on regulations than the regional average, creating a thriving informal ecosystem of brokers, fixers...
By BusinessDay (Nigeria)
News•Feb 17, 2026
India's Textile and Apparel Exports Down by 3.75% in January, Outlook Improves Now with India US Interim Deal
India's textile and apparel exports fell 3.75% in January 2026, dropping to $3.27 billion from $3.40 billion a year earlier, primarily due to U.S. tariffs that remained until February 7. Cotton yarn, fabrics and handloom products declined over 4%, while carpet and jute...
By The Economic Times (India) – Economy
News•Feb 17, 2026
Stocks to Buy in 2026 for Long Term: IGL, Siemens Energy Among 5 Stocks that Could Give 10-40% Return
Brokerage houses have highlighted five Indian equities that could deliver 10‑40% returns by 2026. Motilal Oswal sees Indraprastha Gas (IGL) rising 41% to ₹235 and Siemens Energy up 31% to ₹3,600. Citi maintains a Buy on Lupin with a 15% upside,...
By The Economic Times (India) – RSS hub
News•Feb 17, 2026
US Dollar Positioning Hits Record Underweight in Bank of America Survey
Bank of America’s FX sentiment survey shows net US dollar exposure at a record underweight, the most negative level since the survey began in January 2012. Short positions have surged to extreme levels, surpassing the lows recorded in April 2023....
By ForexLive — Feed
News•Feb 17, 2026
Market Quote of the Day by Sir John Templeton | “The Time of Maximum Pessimism Is the Best Time to...
Sir John Templeton’s adage that the best buying opportunities arise at peak pessimism is highlighted as a timeless investing principle. The article notes that widespread fear compresses valuations, allowing strong companies to be bought at discounts, while emphasizing the need...
By The Economic Times (India) – RSS hub
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Iranian Rial Plummets, Becomes World's Second Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST currency. The rial has depreciated by 44% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = THE GREAT DESTABILIZER. https://t.co/06OiclsaSq
By Steve Hanke
News•Feb 17, 2026
BOJ Likely to Raise Rates 25bp April, Former Board Member Says. Gradual Move Toward 1.25%
Former Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi says the central bank is most likely to raise rates in April rather than March, waiting for clearer wage and inflation data. The BOJ’s December hike to 0.75% marked the first move...
By ForexLive — Feed
News•Feb 17, 2026
China Hits Renewable Milestone, But Coal Isn’t Going Anywhere
China’s operating power capacity from non‑fossil sources surpassed fossil‑fuel capacity for the first time, reaching 52 % of the total in February 2026. The achievement reflects a decade of aggressive solar and wind deployment, backed by the world’s largest clean‑energy supply chain....
By OilPrice.com – Main
News•Feb 16, 2026
ICYMI: China to Remove Tariffs on Imports From 53 African Nations From May 1
China will eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations starting May 1, 2026, expanding the preferential regime beyond the continent’s least‑developed economies. The zero‑tariff policy applies to every African country that maintains diplomatic ties with Beijing and is paired with a...
By ForexLive — Feed
News•Feb 16, 2026
Soft Landing Looks More Plausible, but the Fed Isn’t Ready to Call It Done.
U.S. macro data are aligning for a potential soft landing, with core CPI easing to 2.5% year‑over‑year and unemployment slipping to 4.3% in January. While inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, the Fed’s preferred gauge remains near...
By ForexLive — Feed
News•Feb 16, 2026
Asia Stocks Seen Muted on Holiday Trade, Oil Gains: Markets Wrap
Asian equities opened muted on Tuesday as holiday‑thin trading reduced volumes across the region. Futures indicated a slight rise for Australia and a modest dip for Japan, while the Euro Stoxx 600 remained flat. The yen slipped to around 153 per...
By Bloomberg – Markets
News•Feb 16, 2026
Suriname's Oil Boom Faces Economic Headwinds Despite Major Discovery
Suriname’s GranMorgu project, a $10.5 billion offshore development by TotalEnergies and APA, targets 760 million barrels and is projected to generate $26 billion in revenue. The field is slated for commissioning in 2028, roughly twice the timeline Guyana achieved for its Stabroek Block....
By OilPrice.com – Main
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News•Feb 16, 2026
CYRIL’S ARMY: Ramaphosa’s Decision to Deploy the SANDF Is Deeply Flawed. Here’s Why
President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the withdrawal of roughly 700 South African soldiers from the MONUSCO mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ending a 27‑year peace‑keeping presence. He simultaneously ordered the South African National Defence Force to support the police...
By Daily Maverick – Business
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News•Feb 16, 2026
MONETARY POLICY: Sarb Proposes Major Reform — Ditching Prime Lending Rate for Repo Rate
The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) has released a consultation paper proposing to scrap the prime lending rate (PLR) and use the repo rate, known as the SARB policy rate (SPR), as the benchmark for loan pricing. The PLR currently...
By Daily Maverick – Business
News•Feb 16, 2026
Russia Rattled by America’s Nuclear Move in Armenia
The United States and Armenia signed a nuclear cooperation agreement on February 9, committing to American modular reactor technology for Armenia's next plant. Moscow responded with a public backlash, accusing the U.S. of untested designs and offering lucrative financial and infrastructure...
By OilPrice.com – Main
News•Feb 16, 2026
Unemployment Rate up a Tad to 5% in January, Higher Rise for Females
India’s unemployment rate ticked up to 5 % in January, a modest rise from 4.8 % in December. The increase was driven primarily by a sharper jump in female joblessness, which reached 5.6 % versus 4.8 % for men. Urban unemployment climbed to 7 %...
By The Economic Times (India) – Economy
News•Feb 16, 2026
Govt Plans ‘Champion CPSEs’ for Viksit Bharat by 2047, NITI Aayog Roadmap Soon
India is preparing a roadmap to create ‘champion’ central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) that will drive economic growth and technological advancement toward a developed nation status by 2047. The plan, drafted by NITI Aayog in coordination with the finance ministry,...
By Economic Times — Markets
News•Feb 16, 2026
Ireland Leads Charge Against Biggest EU Economies Forming Elite Club
Ireland’s finance minister warned that the newly‑formed “E6” club of Europe’s six biggest economies could sideline smaller states as it pushes ahead on financial‑market integration, euro promotion and defence spending. The E6 – Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and...
By Politico Europe – All News
News•Feb 16, 2026
Hungary Seeks Croatian Help As Russian Oil Flows Via Ukraine Halted
Hungary and Slovakia have formally asked Croatia to permit Russian crude to flow through the Adria pipeline after the Ukrainian segment of the Druzhba pipeline was shut down following Russian strikes. The two countries cite an EU sanctions exemption that...
By OilPrice.com – Main
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Gold Overtakes Major Currencies as Dollar Reserve Share Plummets
⚠️The US Dollar's role in global reserves is FALLING: USD share in global currency reserves dropped to ~40%, the lowest in at least 25 years. This is down from ~58% a decade ago. During the same period, gold’s share has risen from 16%...
By Global Markets Investor (newsletter author)
Social•Feb 16, 2026
2025 Profitability Snapshot: Sector Returns & Excess Gains
In my sixth data update, I look at business profitability in 2025, across sectors, industries and regions, scaled to revenues (profit margins) and to invested capital (accounting returns). I use the latter to compute and compare excess returns. https://t.co/L3PDmph4VA
By Aswath Damodaran
News•Feb 16, 2026
Economy Has 'Left ICU', Says Finance Chief
Thailand’s economy posted a surprising 2.5% GDP expansion in Q4 2025, outpacing the finance ministry’s 1.8% forecast and the NESDC’s 0.3% estimate. The stronger performance lifted full‑year 2025 growth to 2.4%, above the 2% target, and the finance chief now aims...
By Bangkok Post – Investment (subset within Business)
Social•Feb 16, 2026
US Tech Dominance Fades as Global Rotation Shifts
This chart captures the 2 most important themes in the Stockmarket right now. 1. Global vs US rotation 2. Top in tech stocks For the past 17-years US Tech stocks have dominated global markets, but that is starting to change... https://t.co/6DhUXusR6C
By Callum Thomas
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Investors Shift From S&P 500 to Alternatives, Gains Accelerate
Rotation away from S&P500 (flat on the year) into other assets like foreign stocks, US value, etc up 10-15% seems to be accelerating...
By Meb Faber
News•Feb 16, 2026
State Firms Told to Avoid Borrowing when Investing
Thailand's finance ministry has instructed state‑owned enterprises to fund new investments primarily from internal revenues, limiting reliance on borrowing that is classified as public debt. The policy follows a backdrop where public debt stands at 66.1% of GDP, close to...
By Bangkok Post – Investment (subset within Business)
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Venezuelan Bolivar Plummets 87%, Becomes World’s Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 87% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE BOLIVAR AND REPLACE IT WITH THE US DOLLAR. https://t.co/dHtPzNew81
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Trump's Presidency Keeps Oil Prices Higher, OPEC+ Cuts Production
The best—only?—argument that Trump is bearish for oil prices is that OPEC+ wouldn't have hiked crude production as aggressively last year in a world in which Harris was sitting in the White House.
By Rory Johnston
News•Feb 16, 2026
AUD/USD Flat Amid US Dollar Strength, RBA Minutes Eyed
The Australian dollar held near 0.7072 against the U.S. dollar on Monday as a firmer greenback limited upside. The pair slipped from three‑year highs of 0.7147 after U.S. CPI showed inflation easing to 2.4% and unemployment edging down to 4.3%,...
By FXStreet — News
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Semiconductors Shift From Volume to ASP‑Driven Value
Modeled a range of scenarios, but showing mid-bull to make a key point. For the first time in semiconductor industry history, value creation is primarily an ASP story not a volume story. https://t.co/IoHFb65Gmq
By Ben Bajarin
News•Feb 16, 2026
India’s Rooftop Solar Goals Slowed by Loan Delays
India’s PM Surya Ghar rooftop solar scheme, launched in February 2024 with up to 40% subsidies, has installed only 2.36 million panels, far short of the 4 million target for March. Loan approvals are delayed or rejected for roughly 60% of applications, and many...
By BusinessLIVE (South Africa) – RSS hub
News•Feb 16, 2026
Dangote Drives Nigeria’s Domestic Fuel Supply Above 57% as Imports Retreat
Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery reached full 650,000 bpd capacity in January 2026, processing a record 40.1 million litres of crude per day and supplying 57 % of the nation’s fuel. Domestic output now provides 62 % of premium motor spirit, overtaking imports for the first...
By OilPrice.com – Main
News•Feb 16, 2026
The Promise and Peril of Trump’s Board of Peace
President Donald Trump’s newly created Board of Peace will hold its inaugural meeting on Feb. 19, promising to release $5 billion in humanitarian and reconstruction aid for Gaza. The board, established under UN Security Council Resolution 2803, will operate as a donor‑led, international...
By Atlantic Council – All Content