Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Trump’s Coming Kowtow to Chinese Dictator He Admires and Envies
On May 14, Donald Trump will travel to Beijing for the first of four planned meetings with President Xi Jinping. While the agenda was billed as a step toward stabilizing the U.S.-China trade war, the dominant issue is Iran, where Trump hopes China can help end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The talks also aim to establish a new dispute‑resolution mechanism, but both leaders enter the summit without clear leverage. Observers warn that Xi could use any concessions on Iran to press the United States on Taiwan and weapons sales.
Why June Is the Oil Market’s Point of No Return
The U.S.-Iran conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 14.5 million barrels per day of Middle‑East crude and driving global oil inventories down at a record 11‑12 million barrels daily. JP Morgan warns that only 800 million barrels of the 8.4 billion‑barrel...
Kevin Warsh Is Expected to Be Confirmed as Fed Chair This Week. This Is What It Means for Advisors
Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is poised to be confirmed this week as the next Federal Reserve Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell in May. His confirmation would clear the way for the rate cuts President Trump has been urging, with advisors...
Gold Ticks Lower Amid Increasing Oil-Driven Inflation Concerns After U.S. Rejects Iran's Peace Plan
Gold edged lower on Monday, slipping 0.01% to $4,730.50 per ounce after the United States dismissed Iran's counter‑proposal to a peace plan, reigniting oil‑driven inflation concerns. Silver surged 6.5% to $85.84 per ounce as investors shifted toward risk‑on assets. The...
Kroenig Published in Foreign Policy on Iran’s Uranium Enrichment
Atlantic Council vice president Matthew Kroenig published a piece in Foreign Policy on May 11, arguing that Iran has no legitimate right to enrich uranium. He urges that any future U.S.‑Iran agreement, including under a Trump administration, should embed a...
Founders Still Building in MENA Understand What Others Miss
MENA startup funding slipped 37% year‑on‑year to $941 million in Q1 2026 as geopolitical risk dampened investor sentiment. Yet high‑net‑worth consumers in Dubai, Riyadh and other Gulf cities kept spending, and sovereign programmes such as Saudi Vision 2030 continued to pour capital into...
Allianz: Unemployment Rates Could Be Shaken by Immigration, Iran War, and AI
Allianz warns that despite historically low unemployment in the U.S. and Europe, three forces—tightening immigration policies, the Iran‑related energy‑price shock, and accelerating AI adoption—could destabilize labor markets. Immigration inflows, which accounted for over half of U.S. job creation in 2024,...
Shrinking Workforce Undermines Wage Power Amid Inflation
Wolf Street: "The labor force has been dropping since last fall amid the crackdown on illegal immigration, a tightening up of some work-visa programs, and the wave of boomer retirements. In April, it dropped by another 92,000, to 169.99 million....
Dollar Dominance Trades US Gains for Chinese Factory Control
The charts rhyme b/c of "dollar dominance": China exports a lot of cars (& other things) US exports a lot of stocks & bonds (but not much else on net) The ultimate outcome = China gets US factories & controlling stakes in US...
Trump to Sign Executive Orders to Boost Beef Imports, Cattle Supply
President Trump will sign two executive orders that temporarily suspend U.S. beef tariff‑rate quotas for about 200 days, aiming to increase imports and ease price pressure. The measures also include expanded loan programs for ranchers, reduced gray‑wolf protections and looser...
Demanding Minerals in Exchange for Lives in Zambia
The Trump administration drafted a memo that would withhold HIV, tuberculosis and malaria aid to Zambia unless the country grants U.S. firms expanded access to its critical minerals. More than 1.2 million Zambians rely on the life‑saving PEPFAR program, which could...
US Tariffs Erase All of Toyota’s North America Profits in FY2026
Toyota reported a record FY2026 revenue of ¥50.7 trillion ($324 bn) and a 2% rise in global vehicle sales. Yet U.S. tariffs erased all profit in its North American hub, creating a $1.9 bn operating loss and a –1.4% margin. The tariff hit,...
Real Gasoline Prices Are (Relatively) Low; Gas Prices Are Rising Sharply
Real gasoline prices are low in inflation‑adjusted terms, yet they have surged sharply, rising about 23% from February to April 2024. This jump exceeds the month‑on‑month growth seen after the 2022 Russian‑invasion price spike and the pre‑Great Recession surge. Retail...
Why Your Inflation Hedge Protects Against the Wrong Kind of Inflation
New research by Fang, Liu and Roussanov shows that assets marketed as inflation hedges—stocks, REITs, commodities and gold—only offset energy‑driven price spikes, while they provide little or negative protection against core inflation, which accounts for about 71 % of CPI. The...
America Is Experiencing a Productivity Miracle
After a decade of stagnant output following the 2007‑09 financial crisis, U.S. productivity has surged, posting an annualized 2.5% growth rate in 2025. The Congressional Budget Office, long‑time pessimist on productivity, upgraded its outlook after the first‑quarter data revealed a...
EU Seeks to Restore Trade with Damascus in Bid to Ensure ‘Safe’ Syrian Refugee Returns
The European Union is moving to restore trade with Syria after the fall of Bashar al‑Assad’s regime, lifting most economic sanctions and offering reconstruction aid. The policy shift aims to foster socio‑economic recovery and create conditions for the safe, voluntary...
China's EV Exports Outpace Gasoline for First Time
China shipped more electric than gasoline cars worldwide for the first time ever in April 52.7% of 769,000 cars exported were EVs, doubling EV exports from last April. More EVs because they save consumers $20,000-$40,000 in fuel costs if driving 15 y/15,000...
AI Growth Offsets Shock, Markets Remain Consistent
“No market disconnect … A common narrative is that markets are disconnected as equities and credit hold firm while oil, commodities and yields rise. We see no inconsistency. The AI buildout is offsetting the shock’s drag on growth, while energy...
Forget U.S. Debt, China’s Total Borrowing Is in ‘a League of Its Own’—Much Worse and Deteriorating Faster, Analyst Says
China’s total debt‑to‑GDP ratio, excluding the financial sector, has surged past 300%, roughly double its 2010 level, making it the world’s most leveraged economy after Japan. The rise stems from aggressive borrowing by corporations, central and local governments, while household...
Indian Oil Marketers Flag Strait of Hormuz Disruption as Top Boardroom Risk Amid $105 Brent Spike
India’s state‑run oil marketing companies disclosed under‑recoveries of roughly ₹1 lakh crore ($1.2 bn) after Brent crude surged to $105 a barrel, prompting senior executives to elevate Strait of Hormuz disruptions to a primary risk‑management focus. The move underscores a broader shift toward...
US-Iran Ceasefire 'on Life Support' With Energy Woes to Continue in 2027
The United States and Iran have hit a stalemate in cease‑fire talks, leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial shipping. President Donald Trump insists on a "complete victory" while Tehran demands an end to the U.S. naval blockade and...
How the U.S. Is Trying to Ensure the Dollar’s Dominance During Economic Turmoil
The Trump administration is negotiating new dollar currency‑swap lines with Gulf and Asian partners to reinforce the greenback’s reserve‑currency status amid rising use of the renminbi and crypto for oil trade. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading talks with the...
Fitch Raises Ghana’s Sovereign Rating to ‘B’ on Debt Cut and Reserve Gains
Fitch Ratings upgraded Ghana’s long‑term foreign‑currency sovereign rating from B‑ to B, keeping a positive outlook. The agency highlighted a 21‑percentage‑point drop in debt‑to‑GDP, a $5.4 bn rise in reserves and record fiscal surpluses as proof of a stabilising economy.
US Treasury Yields Rise as Middle East Talks Stall, Oil Near $100
US Treasury yields jumped on Monday, with the 10‑year note up 3 basis points to 4.394% after President Trump rejected Iran’s counter‑proposal and oil prices surged toward $100 a barrel. The move echoed similar spikes in Indian government bonds, underscoring...
Bond Traders Brace for Inflation Data as Fed's Powell Era Ends
Bond traders are bracing for the upcoming U.S. CPI report as oil‑driven price pressures keep Treasury yields elevated. Two‑year yields climbed to 3.93% after the U.S.–Iran standoff pushed crude higher, and the market is already pricing a more than 40%...
Trump Invites Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Larry Fink and Other CEOs to Join China Trip for Xi Summit
President Donald Trump has extended invitations to CEOs of Tesla, Apple, BlackRock, Boeing and other major U.S. firms to accompany him on a diplomatic trip to China this week. The delegation will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade,...
Geopolitical Tensions Set to Spike Energy and Metal Prices, Analysts Warn
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett says commodities will be the biggest trade of the next five years as fresh explosions near Iran’s Strait of Hormuz and a tense US‑China summit raise supply‑risk fears. The events have already pushed West...
South Korea’s Kospi Sets New Record as Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran‑U.S. Tensions
South Korea’s benchmark Kospi opened 3.67% higher to a fresh all‑time high, buoyed by a jump in Brent crude to $105.7 per barrel. The rally unfolded as President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s latest peace proposal, reviving geopolitical risk premia across...
How Africa Can Escape the Debt Trap
Africa accounts for less than 3% of global sovereign debt despite representing about one‑fifth of the world’s population, yet the continent is portrayed as being in a persistent debt crisis. Its average debt‑to‑GDP ratio of 67% is lower than the...
View From Tokyo: Has Iran War Changed Confidence in the US?
The article assesses how the U.S.‑Iran war under the Trump administration is eroding confidence in the United States among Japanese media, scholars and some policymakers, while trust in the broader U.S. government remains more resilient. Recent Japanese polls show 75‑86%...
Luzon Economic Corridor Draws in 7 New Countries
The Luzon Economic Corridor (LEC) has added seven new partners—Australia, Denmark, France, Italy, South Korea, Sweden and the United Kingdom—to the original Philippines‑U.S.-Japan coalition. Launched in April 2024 under the G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, the corridor targets...
World Indifferent to Hormuz Closure, Shipping Adapts Anyway
Nothing would be better for my maritime media business than pumping doom and gloom: the world is over if the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen. The mainstream press is happy to write that story. I’m not. Yes, the situation is bad. But...
China Controls Rare Earths Powering U.S. Tech
My take in @FortuneMagazine on China’s ace - rare earths: “Every advanced weapons system, electric drivetrain, wind turbine, and smartphone in the US runs through China’s critical materials.” The rules are being rewritten, and they are being rewritten in Beijing. https://t.co/m5S1TtrB5g
Iran Rejected Trump. Israel Did Too.
Former President Donald Trump’s unilateral peace proposal for Iran and Israel was rejected by both Tehran and Jerusalem, underscoring the difficulty of U.S.-led diplomatic breakthroughs in the region. Simultaneously, the looming threat of a Strait of Hormuz shutdown is heightening...
Germany's Industrial Output Contracts Again, Undermining Rearmament
For the second consecutive month, Germany’s industrial production SHRANK. Warmonger Merz’s rearmament plans aren’t working. GERMANY = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/i6QfH6Ef4w
Inflation Surges Past 3.5%, Yet Still Labeled Transitory
Inflation is about to print >3.5% and soon >4.0% as commodity prices are still rising with no end in sight. But don't worry, it's just transitory. https://t.co/ASP1TKtbsj
Modi Urges Indians to Buy Less Gold and Skip Foreign Trips as Iran War Strains Economy
Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to cut spending on fuel, fertilizer, travel and gold to conserve foreign‑exchange reserves as the Iran war drives up oil costs. He warned that the rupee has lost about 10% of its value in...
Korea Posts $300B Surplus Amid Record Won Weakness
Two things I never thought I would see: a $300b Korean current account surplus, and a $300b surplus paired with near record won weakness against the US dollar Strange times https://t.co/iSymq2hcGb
OVX Double VIX Highlights Oil’s War‑Driven Fragility
OVX remains roughly 2x VIX during the Iran war Oil markets are pricing persistent physical disruption and systemic fragility. Equity markets are pricing containment, liquidity, and normalization. #OilMarkets #OVX #VIX #IranWar #Energy #Geopolitics #Macro #SystemicRisk https://t.co/P1HxZdHFGn
Iran War Chokes ‘Major Driver’ of Global Economy
The U.S. war in Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, trapping roughly 15 million barrels of crude and 5 million barrels of petroleum products each day. The resulting supply squeeze pushed U.S. diesel prices 60 percent higher than a year ago, the...
Central Banking Losing Relevance Amid Three Mega‑Trends
CENTRAL BANKING IN THE AGE OF THREE BIG MEGA-TRENDS: In today's newsletter, I wrote about our conversation with @economistmeg and why central banking (I think) feels less central to the big economic challenges that every country on earth seems to be...
Saudi MAP Shipment Departs; Eight Phosphate Ships Await
Incase you are wondering how the global fertilizer crisis is shaping up - the 2nd Saudi cargo of MAP just left the Persian Gulf for Brazil since the end of Feb. There are 8 ships loaded w/phosphates waiting. https://t.co/MjbR9M1Cx7
Trump Must Put Detained Uyghur Intellectuals on the Agenda for Xi Summit
President Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping presents a rare diplomatic opening to address the detention of Uyghur scholars. The Uyghur Human Rights Project has identified at least 11 intellectuals and cultural leaders held in Chinese custody...
Trump Opens Beef Imports to Curb Soaring Prices
Imports (and tariff cuts) to the rescue, AGAIN: "Trump Clears Way for More Beef Imports, Aiming to Bring Down Record-High Prices" https://t.co/PrVADPxrF7 https://t.co/WqLArEHL6p
Four Unconventional Policies May Counter Rising Economic Tension
Price controls Nationalization Financial repression Fiscal-monetary coordination @GitaGopinath warns that all four of these policies might form a heterodox response to our current situation of high economic tension. https://t.co/4BUheOAiko
No Plan to Raise Duties on Gold, Silver Imports: Indian Govt Official
India’s government confirmed that import duties on gold and silver will remain at 6%, rejecting speculation of a hike despite soaring import bills and shrinking foreign‑exchange reserves. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked citizens to refrain from buying gold for...
Banks Overstated Tariff Risks; Rollbacks Reveal Bias
Everyone and their mother at investment banks screamed about how tariffs would increase inflation and decrease growth last year, while literally no one seems to care about the impact now that they’re basically being rolled back. I don’t think I’ve...
Goldman Sachs Lifts 2026 Nickel Forecast on Supply Squeeze
May 11 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 average nickel price forecast to $18,500 per metric ton from $17,200 on Monday, citing tighter Indonesian supply due to reduced ore quota allocations and sulfur shortages.
![Hassett: GDP Growth “North of Four, North of Five, North of Even Six [Percent]”](https://hixhlmpcokxhartfkpyi.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/images/thumbnails/90da7d420c755d515e52241cf2cc7f53.webp)
Hassett: GDP Growth “North of Four, North of Five, North of Even Six [Percent]”
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told "Sunday Morning Futures" that U.S. GDP could accelerate to "north of four, north of five, north of even six percent" as a capital‑spending boom gathers pace, especially if the Iran conflict de‑escalates. He...
Private-Sector Spending Reshapes Economy Beyond Past Stimulus
3/ This private-sector spend is tectonic. Instead of financial engineering, we’re seeing a fundamental re-tooling of the economy. The scale of this investment dwarfs traditional "stimulus" and creates a floor for this cycle that didn't exist in '98. https://t.co/MLigMBxeIO