Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global Economy Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Iran war spikes fuel prices and drives inflation to four‑year highs
The conflict in Iran has pushed global fuel prices sharply higher, lifting U.S. gasoline costs by 21% and triggering the steepest inflation increase in nearly four years. Consumer confidence in the United States and Canada has fallen to record lows as households brace for persistent price pressures. Saudi Arabia’s oil throughput dropped by 700,000 barrels per day after a pipeline incident.
Philippine stocks surged on Wednesday as the PSEi jumped 1.95% to 6,074.06 points, breaking the 6,000 mark. The rally was sparked by a two‑week US‑Iran truce announced by President Donald Trump, which eased fears of a broader Middle East conflict. Regional peers followed suit, with South Korea’s Kospi up 5.5% and Japan’s Nikkei gaining 4.7%. Turnover reached PHP 430.02 million (≈$7.8 million) across 23.66 million shares.
The Trump administration rejected Ford's request for temporary relief from the 50% aluminum import tariff after fires crippled Novelis' Oswego plant, forcing automakers to source overseas. Ford has already absorbed $2 billion in costs and expects an additional $1 billion in tariff...
Halifax reported the average UK house price fell 0.5% in March to £299,677 (approximately $383,000). The decline follows a 0.3% rise in February and reflects dampened demand as mortgage rates climb amid uncertainty from the Iran‑Israel conflict. Higher energy costs...
The Reserve Bank of India raised its FY27 baseline crude‑oil price to $85 per barrel, up from $70 in the second half of FY26, and lifted its rupee projection to 94 per dollar, up from 88. The revision follows a...
LNG carriers have seen spot freight rates explode from roughly $42,000 to $300,000 per day after Iran‑linked strikes shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting about 22% of global LNG exports. The surge is a disruption‑driven signal, not a structural shift,...
The Reserve Bank of India kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, prompting a broad market rally. The BSE Sensex jumped nearly 2,990 points, up about 3.8%, while the Nifty 50 rose to just under 24,000. Rate‑sensitive sectors—banks, autos and...
The Reserve Bank of India announced its first-ever core‑inflation forecast, projecting a 4.4% rise for fiscal year 2027. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the move responds to demand from market participants and will become a regular feature. Headline CPI stayed below the...
IDC warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could sharply curb global IT spending in 2026, trimming its growth forecast to 9% and warning it may slip to 5‑6% if fighting persists. The firm cited rising oil prices, higher component...
Australian exporters can seek refunds for tariffs deemed illegal after the US Supreme Court ruled Donald Trump’s IEEPA‑based duties unlawful. The Court of International Trade ordered refunds, prompting firms such as Rio Tinto, Breville and Bondi Boost to file claims. Refunds are...
A two‑week cease‑fire between Iran and its adversaries has sparked a broad risk‑on rally, lifting equities, steepening yield curves and prompting a rebound in most currencies against the dollar. The U.S. dollar index, which rose about 3 % in March, slipped...
Oil prices dropped more than 15% to under $100 a barrel after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week conditional cease‑fire and a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The news sparked a broad equity rally, with Asian...
Asian technology and semiconductor stocks rallied sharply after the United States and Iran agreed to a conditional two‑week cease‑fire that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The de‑escalation eased fears over helium shortages, a critical input for chip manufacturing, prompting double‑digit...
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, conditioning the pause on the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal also secures Israel’s agreement to suspend its bombing campaign during the truce. Iran has presented a ten‑point...
Oil prices plunged about 14% after President Trump posted that the United States would pause bombing Iran for two weeks, contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz for safe shipping. Iran accepted the conditional ceasefire, and diplomatic talks are...
Gold’s March price swing surprised markets, dropping 11.6% to a $4,099 low after briefly breaching $5,400 amid heightened geopolitical tension. The sell‑off was driven by rising U.S. rates, a stronger dollar and an oil‑price shock, echoing patterns seen in 2008,...
Commodity markets posted broad gains in Q1 2026 as energy supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and reduced transit through the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil and LNG prices higher. The UBS CM Commodity Index (CMCITR) delivered a 16.68%...
A recent analysis of U.S. mutual fund managers shows they struggle to navigate geopolitical shocks such as U.S. export bans on Chinese firms. When a company lands on the U.S. Entity List, affected funds experience falling returns, rising volatility, and...
The U.S. dollar fell sharply after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and oil prices slipped below $100 a barrel, erasing much of the war‑premium that had buoyed the greenback. The move sparked a risk‑on rally, with Asian equity indices such as South...
The RBI is balancing inflation control with growth support, keeping rates unchanged amid global uncertainties, while projecting solid GDP growth but slightly softer momentum next year.
Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for India's fiscal year 2027 GDP growth to 6.2%, down 30 basis points, citing supply‑side disruptions and higher energy costs from the Gulf conflict. The bank raised its inflation projection to 5.1% and expects the...
The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and reaffirmed a neutral stance. A Mint poll of ten economists had anticipated the hold amid rising inflation risks and a softer growth outlook. The...
The Financial Times’ Monetary Policy Radar team has been introduced, showcasing five senior contributors who specialize in European central‑bank analysis. Chris Giles leads the unit as the FT’s economics commentator, while Andrew Whiffin brings a decade of corporate‑commentary experience. Data‑driven...
Indian government bond yields dropped sharply on Wednesday as oil prices plunged following a U.S.-brokered two‑week cease‑fire with Iran. The benchmark 2035 bond yield fell to 6.9177%, down from 7.0458% the previous day, just before the Reserve Bank of India’s...
The Indian rupee jumped 50 paise to 92.56 per dollar in early trade after President Donald Trump announced a two‑week suspension of US strikes on Iran. The cease‑fire sparked a broad rally in risk assets, with Asian equities, gold and silver...
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio cautioned that tensions among the United States, Israel and Iran signal a broader “world war” dynamic, marking a shift from episodic conflicts to a systemic multipolar rivalry. He argues markets are underpricing the inflationary and volatility...
In late March Israel and Iran struck gas fields in the Persian Gulf, creating a sharp supply shock that will push global energy prices higher. The disruption has already prompted U.S. markets to price in further Federal Reserve rate hikes...
In this episode, hosts Marlon Weems and Arturo Dominguez discuss two major topics: the recent failed paramilitary invasion attempt on Cuba by U.S.-based exiles, and the Pentagon's push for unrestricted access to advanced AI from Anthropic, which the company refused,...
Global markets are rattled by three converging forces: a sudden U.S. pivot toward a two‑week conditional ceasefire with Iran, Oracle’s large‑scale AI‑driven layoffs, and escalating El Niño‑related climate risks. Elevated oil prices from Middle‑East tensions are tightening industrial supply chains, while...
Since 2008, Philippines’s economy has put in a strong performance. But, thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, PH is going to take a hit. It has ~50 days of oil reserves left and has declared a national energy emergency. PH should send...
Asian equity markets rallied on Wednesday as investors cheered a two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire, pushing Japan's Nikkei index up roughly 4%. The positive risk sentiment spread across regional bourses, lifting stocks in South Korea, Taiwan and other markets. Meanwhile, crude oil...
Iran war impacting farmers in Iowa. This is an example of how food prices will escalate globally in the rest of 2026. This plays out badly for farmers in Iowa making a loss. But it’s an even greater tragedy for...
Don't expect China's LNG demand to bounce back from the Middle East turmoil 🇨🇳🚢 China gets a quarter of its LNG from the world's biggest export plant in Qatar.. which remains offline. To makeup for the shortfall, China is expected to...
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% as global uncertainty and a volatile oil market persisted. Inflation forecasts were nudged higher, with the Monetary Policy Committee expecting a 3% rise in the March quarter...
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI inflation slowed to 30.87%/yr in March, down from 31.53%/yr in February. With its money supply, M3, still growing at 39.9%/yr, Turkey’s #1 problem REMAINS Inflation. Monetary policy is still too loose. https://t.co/2EpdZjFZ8x
Brent crude oil: -15% TTF nat gas: -18% German power: -5% (and below pre-war) Asian coal: -1% (And yes, the Strait of Hormuz has yet to actually reopen, and we don’t know for sure what the ceasefire means in practical terms for SoH energy...
Oil prices plunged about 14% on Wednesday as Brent fell to $95.17 and WTI to $96.41, both slipping below the $100 per barrel threshold. The drop follows a two‑week cease‑fire agreement between the United States, Israel and Iran and a...
So this is how 5D chess is played: US produces more oil than it consumes US just got control of world largest reserve (Venezuela) US agrees to Iran oil toll charge to Europe, Asia, Australia etc in exchange for a Ceasefire 😉😉😉 https://t.co/CjILj9Ul2a
Pakistan owes $3.5 billion to the UAE, due this month. To cover it, they are going hat in hand to China and Saudi Arabia, again. PAK = THIRD WORLD. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/e4naldX7Ad
The U.S. Trade Representative has launched Section 301(b) investigations into forced‑labor enforcement gaps in 60 major trading partners, expanding risk from product‑level actions to potential country‑wide tariffs. The probe runs alongside existing UFLPA and CBP measures, creating layered compliance and cost...
EUROPEAN GAS PRICES FALL AS MUCH AS 20% ON US-IRAN CEASEFIRE 🚨🚨 About 20% of global LNG traversed Hormuz before the war. But not a single shipment has been exported from the region in over a month https://t.co/zFjTxnnhra
We know we face months of physical disruption to energy and food markets. Inflation will keep getting worse. The question is whether risk assets will care, if the underlying conflict has been resolved. I suspect not...unless the economy deteriorates in...
Fitch lowered its 2026 growth forecasts for Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia, citing a hotter‑than‑expected inflation outlook driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict. Kenya’s projection fell to 5.0% from 5.2%, DRC to 5.2% from 5.7% and Ethiopia to...
1956: Abdel Nasser Suez victory & UK-France humiliation. 2026: Iran & (China) Hormuz victory & Dollar system humiliation. To be reviewed in 2 weeks.
Romania’s central bank governor joined calls for the Black Sea nation to revive a goal of adopting the euro as the country seeks to get through a painful period of austerity https://t.co/SjqJU4C4eB https://t.co/wJj4vWehdb
When compared to India, Pakistan has only realized modest economic growth, at best. Pakistanis are facing record fuel shortages and fuel price increases. PAK’S FUEL CRISIS CAN BE LAID AT THE DOORSTEPS OF THE US AND ISRAEL. https://t.co/FHxBNEiD4O
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Some question Turkey's official CPI inflation drop from 31.58%/yr in Feb. to 30.87%/yr in Mar. I don’t. My high-frequency inflation measure is 20.9%/yr. That's below the official measure. My measure always leads the official measure, so the fall was expected....
Did a lengthy interview with @AmChamSh Insight magazine on what was supposed to be the "Year of US-China". But, ya know, events interjected in this topsy turvy world. Still, I'm sure we will be turning our attention to this come...
Many people making fun of this but I think she just means betting on monthly BLS payroll data (NFP)
The ceasefire is good The gap between Iran's and the US's needs are vast The US is low on ammo That suggests that Hormuz is now an Iranian waterway It's way too early to start guessing about insurance markets @GreenBayTrail_
The terms of the ceasefire indicate that the rush will be a trickle of 5 mmb/d @Amena__Bakr Once things start moving as you say. Iran keeps the global economy hostage. Art of the Deal. https://t.co/V5mSMD8qOx
